Exponential Medicine Conference Report_FINAL
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San Diego, CA November, 2014C o n t e n t sTable of
San Diego, CA November, 2014
Observations from the Exponential Medicine event
What is exponential technology?
4 Critical insights for companies to remember in this era of exponential growth
Key take-aways and disruption in the health space
Rise of the patient
A game changer - tech meets neuroscience
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is closer to reality than you think
Where is Pharma?
What will the future of health look like?
Start-ups proliferate: An explosion in the health space
Crime paysand now it pays exponentially
Now what? Be the disrupters, not the disruptees!
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The exponential growth of technology is redefining the health space.
Through multi-disciplinary events such as Exponential Medicine,
world-class innovators, organizations and start-ups across the
biomedical and technology spectrum are congregating to explore
and leverage the convergence of new technologies in re-inventing the
future of health and medicine.
With innovation being in our company DNA, the groundbreaking
achievements gleaned at the Exponential Medicine 2014 event has
spurred us to put together this report and share the learnings. We
hope you enjoy it and will be inspired to infuse the power of exponential
technology and innovative thinking into your daily lives.
Roberto Ascione President, Razorfish Healthware
A word from our President
Kristin is a strategic and innovative thinker whose experience lies at the intersection of health
& technology. She has an insatiable curiosity for whats next and a true passion for figuring
out how to apply new technologies to solve various health and marketing challenges. Shes
been helping clients do just that for 15+ years and is currently a strategic consultant advising
clients in this area.
She can be reached at email@example.com.
Brenda is the Business Navigator of Razorfish Healthware in APAC. Through her strategic
thinking and ability to understand clients objectives and challenges, she has been putting
together innovative solutions to help them grow their business for 7+ years now. Brenda
envisions a healthcare utopia where all patients are 100% empowered to manage their own
health care, and she is excited to be a part of that health revolution.
She can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Roberto is a digital entrepreneur, pioneering the development of digital technologies in
healthcare. Today Roberto is the President of Razorfish Healthware, a global organization
that includes more than 300 employees working around the world. Passionate for medicine,
computer sciences and human-technology interactions, Roberto believes that technology will
be the most impactful driver of change in the healthcare industry. He has about 20 years of
experience in health-related consulting, media and communications.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Observations from the 2014 Exponential Medicine event
Exponential Medicine is a 4-day conference held
by Singularity University (SU). For those not familiar
with Singularity University, it was founded by Ray
Kurzweil (famed Futurist author of The Singularity is
Near and How to Create a Mind as well as Director
of Engineering at Google) and Dr. Peter Diamandis
(founder of the x-Prize and author of Abundance:
The Future is Better Than You Think).
SU WAS CREATED IN ORDER TO HELP EDUCATE
AND INSPIRE PEOPLE GLOBALLY ON HOW TO
LEVERAGE EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES TO
SOLVE THE WORLDS BIGGEST CHALLENGES.
No small feat! They, along with the other SU
faculty members, set their expectations regarding
what is possible very high, and as such it is
headquartered on NASAs research campus
in Silicon Valley. Exponential Medicine is the
conference SU puts on yearly, which focuses
OBSERVATIONSFROM THE 2014EXPONENTIALMEDICINE EVENT
on the healthcare industry, a 3 to 4 trillion dollar
industry ripe for disruption.
As evidenced by the number of digital health
start-ups and accelerators forming around the
world, along with larger established technology
companies like Apple, Google and Samsung
among others, entering into the health space
we can see that disruption beginning already.
There were over 450 participants in attendance,
from all corners of the globe and representing
all sectors of healthcare, scientific advancement
and technology. The attendees were united in
their passion for whats next, a curiosity of new
Before diving in and trying to provide just a few key
highlights from a 4 day fire-hose of mind blowing
presentations given by some of the smartest
minds and innovative thinkers alive today, let us first
provide a baseline understanding of what we mean
by exponential technologies.
technologies and how they can leverage them to
influence and improve the ailing healthcare
system. The curated audience was among the
most hopeful for what the future brings and
excited about how they can contribute to make
in difference in a tangible and proactive way.
THOSE PRESENT, ALONG WITH THE FACULTY
AND SPEAKERS, WERE AMONG THE MOST
ENTHUSIASTIC, PASSIONATE AND CURIOUS
PROFESSIONALS EVER GATHERED AROUND
A SHARED GOAL OF IMPROVING HEALTH
Figure a 1. Participants of Exponential Medicine 2014 posing for a group shot in front of the Hotel Del Coronado, San Diego. (Source: Exponential Medicine site)
What is Exponential Technology?
WHAT ISE X P O N E N T I A L TECHNOLOGY?
As human beings we think in terms of what
we can relate to personally. Our expectations
being based on what we experience, it is whats
known as our cognitive bias. Life used to be local +
linear, that is how our brains are wired.
Local in that until recently we were only influenced
by that which surrounds us geographically and linear
meaning, if I take 10 steps, I will move forward 10
steps. Technology on the other hand is accelerating
at an exponential rate, doubling at every 1.5 to
2 years. Our brains have an extremely hard time
comprehending logical change occurring.
Case in point: A study was done by venture
capitalist Vinod Khosla which analyzed a ten
year time period (2000-2010) and the predictions
made by some of the most well respected strategic
consultancies (Forrester, Gartner, McKinsey etc) to
see how quickly they believed the mobile industry
would grow year over year. They predicted on
average an approximate growth of 16% between
2002 to 2004 (when in fact it grew over 100%),
between 2004 to 2006 they collectively predicted
a 14% increase (it once again grew 100%). In 2006
analysts estimated increased sales of 12% and it
doubled again. As noted in the book Exponential
Organizations: Why New Organizations Are 10
Times better, faster and cheaper than yours
(and what to do about it) by Salim Ismail, he notes
Despite three previous-and notable-failures, in
2008, these very same experts forecast a measly 10
percent growth, only to see the number double yet
again - another 100% leap. It is hard to imagine how
anyone could be more wrong than to be off by 10X -
and yet these were the mobile phone experts upon
whom corporations and governments worldwide
relied for their long-term strategic planning.
Ray Kurzweil described this rate of technological
change in his seminal book called The Singularity
is Near as the Law of Accelerating Returns (see
Figure b1) adapted from Moores Law.
And indeed, many of the predictions Ray Kurzweil
has made based on that exponential thinking, which
many thought him crazy to even make, have come
Figure b 1. Linear versus Exponential as adapted by Moores Law.
Linear vs. Exponential
Once you comprehend the concept of exponential
thinking regarding technologies, you can explore how
it is disrupting industry after industry. A framework
called the 6 Ds of Exponential further explains the
exponential growth processes in technology:
DIGITIZEDAnything that becomes digitized hops onto
the exponential curve (example: photographs).
DECEPTIVEA pattern of growth occurs, which at first
seems deceptive, until it becomes disruptive
(doubling every 1.5 - 2 years).
DISRUPTIVEThis is when it hits the exponential curve
and really starts to make an impact.
DEMATERIALIZEThis happens when a new technology
makes other things obsolete. Think about the
things you no longer carry around with you
that have been dematerialized: GPs devices,
boom boxes, Cd players, record stores,
calculators, cameras, video cameras, 2 way