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  • EXPONENTIAL MEDICINE

    Conference Report

  • San Diego, CA November, 2014C o n t e n t sTable of

  • San Diego, CA November, 2014

    Introduction

    Contributors

    Observations from the Exponential Medicine event

    What is exponential technology?

    4 Critical insights for companies to remember in this era of exponential growth

    Key take-aways and disruption in the health space

    Rise of the patient

    A game changer - tech meets neuroscience

    Artificial Intelligence (AI) is closer to reality than you think

    Where is Pharma?

    What will the future of health look like?

    Start-ups proliferate: An explosion in the health space

    Crime paysand now it pays exponentially

    Now what? Be the disrupters, not the disruptees!

    0405 06 1017 1820 24 263032384346

  • INTRODUCTION

    The exponential growth of technology is redefining the health space.

    Through multi-disciplinary events such as Exponential Medicine,

    world-class innovators, organizations and start-ups across the

    biomedical and technology spectrum are congregating to explore

    and leverage the convergence of new technologies in re-inventing the

    future of health and medicine.

    With innovation being in our company DNA, the groundbreaking

    achievements gleaned at the Exponential Medicine 2014 event has

    spurred us to put together this report and share the learnings. We

    hope you enjoy it and will be inspired to infuse the power of exponential

    technology and innovative thinking into your daily lives.

    Roberto Ascione President, Razorfish Healthware

    A word from our President

  • Contributors

    Kristin is a strategic and innovative thinker whose experience lies at the intersection of health

    & technology. She has an insatiable curiosity for whats next and a true passion for figuring

    out how to apply new technologies to solve various health and marketing challenges. Shes

    been helping clients do just that for 15+ years and is currently a strategic consultant advising

    clients in this area.

    She can be reached at kristinmilburn@icloud.com.

    Kristin Milburn

    Brenda is the Business Navigator of Razorfish Healthware in APAC. Through her strategic

    thinking and ability to understand clients objectives and challenges, she has been putting

    together innovative solutions to help them grow their business for 7+ years now. Brenda

    envisions a healthcare utopia where all patients are 100% empowered to manage their own

    health care, and she is excited to be a part of that health revolution.

    She can be reached at brenda.cheong@razorfishhealthware.com

    Brenda Cheong

    Roberto is a digital entrepreneur, pioneering the development of digital technologies in

    healthcare. Today Roberto is the President of Razorfish Healthware, a global organization

    that includes more than 300 employees working around the world. Passionate for medicine,

    computer sciences and human-technology interactions, Roberto believes that technology will

    be the most impactful driver of change in the healthcare industry. He has about 20 years of

    experience in health-related consulting, media and communications.

    He can be reached at roberto.ascione@razorfishhealthware.com

    Roberto Ascione

  • Observations from the 2014 Exponential Medicine event

  • Exponential Medicine is a 4-day conference held

    by Singularity University (SU). For those not familiar

    with Singularity University, it was founded by Ray

    Kurzweil (famed Futurist author of The Singularity is

    Near and How to Create a Mind as well as Director

    of Engineering at Google) and Dr. Peter Diamandis

    (founder of the x-Prize and author of Abundance:

    The Future is Better Than You Think).

    SU WAS CREATED IN ORDER TO HELP EDUCATE

    AND INSPIRE PEOPLE GLOBALLY ON HOW TO

    LEVERAGE EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES TO

    SOLVE THE WORLDS BIGGEST CHALLENGES.

    No small feat! They, along with the other SU

    faculty members, set their expectations regarding

    what is possible very high, and as such it is

    headquartered on NASAs research campus

    in Silicon Valley. Exponential Medicine is the

    conference SU puts on yearly, which focuses

    OBSERVATIONSFROM THE 2014EXPONENTIALMEDICINE EVENT

    on the healthcare industry, a 3 to 4 trillion dollar

    industry ripe for disruption.

    As evidenced by the number of digital health

    start-ups and accelerators forming around the

    world, along with larger established technology

    companies like Apple, Google and Samsung

    among others, entering into the health space

    we can see that disruption beginning already.

    There were over 450 participants in attendance,

    from all corners of the globe and representing

    all sectors of healthcare, scientific advancement

    and technology. The attendees were united in

    their passion for whats next, a curiosity of new

  • Before diving in and trying to provide just a few key

    highlights from a 4 day fire-hose of mind blowing

    presentations given by some of the smartest

    minds and innovative thinkers alive today, let us first

    provide a baseline understanding of what we mean

    by exponential technologies.

    technologies and how they can leverage them to

    influence and improve the ailing healthcare

    system. The curated audience was among the

    most hopeful for what the future brings and

    excited about how they can contribute to make

    in difference in a tangible and proactive way.

    THOSE PRESENT, ALONG WITH THE FACULTY

    AND SPEAKERS, WERE AMONG THE MOST

    ENTHUSIASTIC, PASSIONATE AND CURIOUS

    PROFESSIONALS EVER GATHERED AROUND

    A SHARED GOAL OF IMPROVING HEALTH

    WORLDWIDE.

    Figure a 1. Participants of Exponential Medicine 2014 posing for a group shot in front of the Hotel Del Coronado, San Diego. (Source: Exponential Medicine site)

  • What is Exponential Technology?

  • WHAT ISE X P O N E N T I A L TECHNOLOGY?

    As human beings we think in terms of what

    we can relate to personally. Our expectations

    being based on what we experience, it is whats

    known as our cognitive bias. Life used to be local +

    linear, that is how our brains are wired.

    Local in that until recently we were only influenced

    by that which surrounds us geographically and linear

    meaning, if I take 10 steps, I will move forward 10

    steps. Technology on the other hand is accelerating

    at an exponential rate, doubling at every 1.5 to

    2 years. Our brains have an extremely hard time

    comprehending logical change occurring.

    Case in point: A study was done by venture

    capitalist Vinod Khosla which analyzed a ten

    year time period (2000-2010) and the predictions

    made by some of the most well respected strategic

    consultancies (Forrester, Gartner, McKinsey etc) to

    see how quickly they believed the mobile industry

    would grow year over year. They predicted on

    average an approximate growth of 16% between

    2002 to 2004 (when in fact it grew over 100%),

    between 2004 to 2006 they collectively predicted

    a 14% increase (it once again grew 100%). In 2006

    analysts estimated increased sales of 12% and it

    doubled again. As noted in the book Exponential

    Organizations: Why New Organizations Are 10

    Times better, faster and cheaper than yours

    (and what to do about it) by Salim Ismail, he notes

    Despite three previous-and notable-failures, in

    2008, these very same experts forecast a measly 10

    percent growth, only to see the number double yet

    again - another 100% leap. It is hard to imagine how

    anyone could be more wrong than to be off by 10X -

    and yet these were the mobile phone experts upon

    whom corporations and governments worldwide

    relied for their long-term strategic planning.

    Ray Kurzweil described this rate of technological

    change in his seminal book called The Singularity

    is Near as the Law of Accelerating Returns (see

    Figure b1) adapted from Moores Law.

    And indeed, many of the predictions Ray Kurzweil

    has made based on that exponential thinking, which

    many thought him crazy to even make, have come

    true.

  • Figure b 1. Linear versus Exponential as adapted by Moores Law.

    Linear vs. Exponential

    Exponential

    Disruption

    Linear

    GR

    OW

    TH

    TIME0

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    5

    4

    3

    Once you comprehend the concept of exponential

    thinking regarding technologies, you can explore how

    it is disrupting industry after industry. A framework

    called the 6 Ds of Exponential further explains the

    exponential growth processes in technology:

    DIGITIZEDAnything that becomes digitized hops onto

    the exponential curve (example: photographs).

    DECEPTIVEA pattern of growth occurs, which at first

    seems deceptive, until it becomes disruptive

    (doubling every 1.5 - 2 years).

    DISRUPTIVEThis is when it hits the exponential curve

    and really starts to make an impact.

    DEMATERIALIZEThis happens when a new technology

    makes other things obsolete. Think about the

    things you no longer carry around with you

    that have been dematerialized: GPs devices,

    boom boxes, Cd players, record stores,

    calculators, cameras, video cameras, 2 way