Era of Fossil Fuel

Norman W. GarrickLecture 9

Sustainable Transportation

Based mostly on

Kunstler, The Long Emergency, 2005, Atlantic Monthly Press, New York, pg. 73-87(Chapter 2: Modernity and the Fossil Fuels Dilemma)

The Roaring 20s – The Age of Change

Kunstler asks us to imagine living in 1924, the year when all the following technology was just beginning to flower:

CarsAirplanesElectricity

Central HeatingSkyscrapers

RadiosMotion Pictures

X-Ray

At the time these were still glorious modern marvels, that we now take for granted

The Roaring 20s – The Age of Change

In the 20s all the above were still glorious modern marvels, that we now take for granted

Since then we have mostly refined technology (except for computers and the internet)

rather than make major advances

Even atomic fission would have been impossible without fossil fuel and might not be practical in the future without it

All these technology are enabled by access to CHEAP fossil fuels

Peak Oil and the End of An EraKunstler’s vision is that we may be near the end of an era

– the end of the age of fossil fuel

In the chapter on which this lecture is based he makes the case for the End of the Age of Fossil Fuel In this chapter he sounds the call to action to prepare for a new and different era

What is Peak Oil?

Peak oil is the point at which we have extracted half of the oil hat existed on the planet

One important point (and often overlooked consequence of the peak oil debate) is that the half that is gone was the

easiest to get, the highest quality and the cheapest to refine

Kunstler reminds us that the remaining half will be In less accessible places (like deep under the ocean)

Difficult and expensive to extract (may take more energy to recover that what it contains)High sulfur content (so difficult to refine)

In tar sands or oil shales, so must be mined (Adding to cost and less environmentally palatable)

Much of this stuff might never be recovered

What is Peak Oil?

After Peak Oil

After peak oil we will never get back to the peak level of productionThis will coincide with continued rise in demand (at least for a time)

In Kunstler’s view this will lead to economic crisis that will be manifested in Affecting the economies of different nations

Toppled governmentsAltered of political boundaries

Military strifeChallenge to the continuation of civilized life

At peak we will have a population that demands the amount of oil we were generating at that timeAfter peak, supply will decline relentlessly, stressing social and market systems

Are We at Peak Oil?

Have we passed peak?Are we at peak? Or,

Is the peak still to come?

We don’t knowthe peak will only be obvious in retrospect

We will view the peak looking through the rearview window

Why is There So Little Discussion of Peak Oil?

If Kunstler is correct why aren’t we paying attention to peak oil and the consequence of passing this point in history?

Kunstler see us suffering from cultural inertia and collective delusion

fed by comfort and complacency (of course, this book was written before this last economic crisis, which is not being linked to oil)

There is also the belief in some quarters that oil is superabundant and limitless due to Undiscovered oil fields

Yet to be exploited technologies that will extend the life of existing oil fields

Sounding the Alarm on Peak Oil

So why is no prominent group or figure sounding an alarm?Where is the Al Gore of peak oil?

The oil companies have the information but they don’t see it as their responsibility to think of the future of the world

Kunstler also accuses the oil companies of indulging in wishful thinking

They are saying thatIf we are at peak then market forces will trigger innovations which will solve the problem

If not then there is no real problem

“Corporate executives and the public alike share a belief in Techno-Miracle”

The Politics of Peak OilKunstler sees the US Government as being in a tough spot with regards to this issue

He says the government and our political culture are invested in a specific type of ‘American Dream’ that is based on the outsourcing of manufacturing and consumerism fueled by cheap oil

The dilemma that they face is that it is political suicide to question this version of the American Dream – we are too invested in it

The result is that the government response to peak oil has been (choose one)1. Ignore2. Change the subject3. Spin

Deniers and Hypocrites on Peak OilKunstler says President Carter was the only president that spoke the truth on this issue but his vision was

flawed by his abiding belief in a techno fix for replacing fossil fuel

The 80s and the 90s brought us the former hippies who became boomers and then yuppies with a penchant for SUVs and McMansions in exurbia and the computer revolution of the 1990s feed the techno hubris

Kunstler sees Republicans as deniers and Democrats as hypocrites (with a position of moral superiority on environmental issues, while driving SUVs)

Why are Fossil Fuels So Special?

In Kunstler’s view fossil fuels are a gift from the geological history of the planet that allowed us to artificially and temporarily extend the carrying capacity of the planet

The intensive use of fossil fuels covers about 200 years, starting with coal and then oil and natural gas

During this 200 year era the earth’s population exploded from 1 Billion to 6.5 Billion

If we were to remove fossil fuel now we would be in big trouble

Kunstler sees this period as a one time deal – an anomalous period in human history

How Fossil Fuels Change Our Lives

Kunstler says that because of fossil fuel all of us in the industrialized world live as if we have hundreds of slaves at our disposal

Life without fossil fuels is unimaginable and would require us to conceive of a different socio-economic model

and because of the leap of faith that this requires, we are unprepared for what is to come

Cheap oil meant that everyone in the developed world benefited

The Amazing Properties of OilKunstler says that ‘Oil is Amazing’

It has large amount of energy per unit weight and unit volume

Oil also has other attractionsEasy to extract

Easy to transportStores easily

Does not degradeFlammable but safe

Versatile (produces numerous of grades of fuel and thousands of products)

There is really no substitute for oil in terms of Power

Versatility Transportability Ease of storage

Plus it was cheap and plentiful (up until now)

The Amazing Properties of Oil“We used it (oil) as if there was no tomorrow, now there may not be one.

That is how special oil has been.”

James Howard Kunstler

Where Oil Comes From

Oil was formed from ancient organic matter in pre-historic lakes and ocean that bloomed during periods of global warming 300 M and 30 M years ago

Oil forms when this material is subjected to intense heat and pressure which converts the organic matter to hydro-carbons

The required conditions for this conversion occur between 7,500 and 15,000 feet below the earth’s surface

in the ‘oil window’

Much of the world’s oil is found at this level, but some has also seeped to the surface

very little is found below this zone

Next class The history of the oil industry

and its impact on how we developed

Oil Prices 1861 to 2010

http://www.forbes.com/2005/11/01/oil-prices-1861-today-real-vs-nominal_flash.html

Oil Prices in 2004 Dollars