Drury, Michael Sept 29 11
21
Stockholm, Sweden September 29, 2011 GLOBAL INTERDEPENDENCE CENTER McVEAN Trading & Investments, LLC
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GLOBAL INTERDEPENDENCE CENTER Stockholm, Sweden September 29, 2011 Trading & Investments, LLC JAPAN, S.KOREA, TAIWAN AUSTRALIA, INDONESIA Source: World Bank 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results. 1 Commodity China % of World Source: Barclays 2010 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results. 2
Transcript of Drury, Michael Sept 29 11
Stockholm, Sweden
September 29, 2011
GLOBAL INTERDEPENDENCE CENTER
McVEAN Trading & Investments, LLC
WORLD SHARES OF GDP
2010
1 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Source: World Bank
EU US CHINA, BRAZIL,
CANADA, RUSSIA,
AUSTRALIA, INDONESIA JAPAN,
S.KOREA, TAIWAN
China’s Share of World Commodity Consumption
Commodity China % of World
Cement 53.2%
Iron Ore 47.7%
Coal 46.9%
Pigs 46.4%
Steel 45.4%
Lead 44.6%
Zinc 41.3%
Aluminum 40.6%
Copper 38.9%
Eggs 37.2%
Nickel 36.3%
Rice 28.1%
Soybeans 24.6%
Wheat 16.6%
Chickens 15.6%
PPP GDP 13.6%
Oil 10.3%
Cattle 9.5%
GDP 9.4%
2 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results. Source: Barclays 2010
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
1994 1997 2001 2003 2008 2011 2016
China US
GDP LEVELS FOR CHINA AND US
Trillions of US Dollars
3 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
5.8% 11.1%
12.3% 14.8%
32.4%
46.7%
Asian
Crisis
2001
Recession
SARS
Lehman Now
50% yuan
devaluation
???
102.1%
WTI vs Brent Crude Oil
4 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11
WTI BrentSep-11
Gasoline
5 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
GasolineSep-11
Corn
6 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09
Sep-11
COPPER
7 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09
Aug-10
Cotton
8 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09
Sep-11
CONSUMER SERVICES VS GDP
NOMINAL DOLLARS – 4 QTR % CH
9 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan-80 Jan-83 Jan-86 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10
PCE-SERVICES GDP Q2 2011
MANUFACTURING AND NON-MANUFACTURING
ISM INDEXES
10 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
MANUFACTURING ISM NON-MANUFACTURING ISMJuly 2011
CORE CPI MEASURES
3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM 3 MONTHS AGO SAAR
11 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Jan-91 Feb-92 Mar-93 Apr-94 May-95 Jun-96 Jul-97 Aug-98 Sep-99 Oct-00 Nov-01 Dec-02 Jan-04 Feb-05 Mar-06 Apr-07 May-08 Jun-09 Jul-10
CORE SERVICES CPI CORE CPI COMMODITIESJun 2011
NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS EX AIRCRAFT
THREE MONTH AVERAGE
12 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10
IMPORTS / CONSUMPTION EXPORTS / PRODUCTION May 2011
CPI MEASURES
3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM 3 MONTH AVERAGE YEAR AGO
13 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
CORE SERVICES CPI HOMEOWNERS' EQUIVALENT RENT June 2011
HOUSING STARTS
3 MONTH AVERAGE IN MILLIONS OF UNITS
14 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
SINGLE FAMILY MULTI FAMILY July 2011
APPRECIATION ON NEW & APPRECIATION HOMES
3 MONTH AVERAGE %CH FROM 3 MONTH AVERAGE YEAR AGO
15 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
-16.0%
-12.0%
-8.0%
-4.0%
0.0%
4.0%
8.0%
12.0%
Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
CHANGE IN WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF AVERAGE PRICES OF NEW & EXISTING HOMES June 2011
US 10 YR NOTE YIELD VS FED FUNDS TARGET RATE
16 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
US 10YR YIELD FED FUNDSAug-11
CHINESE GDP GROWTH
QTR / QTR YR AGO
17 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11
REAL GDP GDP DEFLATOR Q2 2011
US CORN ENDING STOCKS
18 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
MIL
BU
PIPELINE USDA ESTIMATESource: McVean Trading Calculation
COPPER
19
Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09
Aug-10
BRENT CRUDE OIL
20 Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-89 Jan-93 Jan-97 Jan-01 Jan-05 Jan-09
Sep-11
