Dec 2014 Guardian/ICM Scotland poll

8/10/2019 Dec 2014 Guardian/ICM Scotland poll

1/106

RegionSocial gradeWork status AgeGender MidHigh-Cen-NEScot-landstralNot

Sco-land &Loth-& Is-Glas-Scot-Re-work-6555 to45 to35 to25 to18 toWestSouthtlandFifeianslandsgowlandC2DE ABC1Other tiredingPTFTplus6454443424FemaleMaleTotal

9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

761029394894477933483206919080692601731111191121173631835166810 - Absolutely certain59%80%70%74%65%54%62%64%64%69%51%83%68%60%64%83%81%73%59%53%43%60%74%67%to vote

226759710154040913911371361618235463380917%4%5%4%6%8%8%10%7%9%7%6%7%10%9%6%4%10%9%10%6%9%7%8%

17113105139114535238414318105103017453580813%1%10%8%4%15%8%8%8%8%17%4%4%12%8%4%7%3%5%14%20%8%7%8%

2-5-725718105*5216-23125618102872%-4%-5%2%4%5%3%2%3%*5%1%4%-2%2%6%2%7%3%2%3%

--1-1-6144112121-13114496--*-1%-5%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%1%-1%2%1%2%1%1%1%

261-19432257734561341021792652%4%1%-1%11%3%2%4%1%5%3%2%4%1%3%1%2%2%4%3%3%2%3%

4-2-5-1-112214-51--210-12-1243%-2%-3%-1%-2%*2%*3%-1%*--1%4%-2%-1%

---85--3124-*1311*21344142163---6%4%--2%2%1%-*1%3%3%*2%1%2%2%5%3%*2%

---23-1143----7---2415373---2%2%-1%1%1%1%----2%---1%2%1%1%1%1%

38426761127199577183210161052520461 - Certain not to vote2%6%3%1%4%8%4%8%5%4%7%2%6%6%4%1%1%6%8%4%6%5%4%5%

1663313191543141222367418524Don't know1%5%5%2%2%1%3%1%2%3%3%1%1%3%3%1%1%2%3%3%4%3%1%2%

2--32-1-534-2-2-123-3728Refused1%--2%2%-1%-1%1%3%-2%-*-*1%2%-3%1%*1%

9.049.139.159.048.558.248.728.578.639.058.349.478.728.638.699.519.479.048.358.317.968.559.128.82Mean

1.802.381.942.272.672.712.342.692.522.172.601.632.522.532.511.521.552.362.852.612.732.572.122.38Standard deviation0.180.290.160.260.220.310.170.200.130.090.260.100.280.250.130.100.110.160.240.230.400.120.090.08Standard error

Page 1

SCOTLAND POLL DECEMBER 2014Fieldwork : 16th-18th December 2014

Absolutes/col percentsTable 1Q1. Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election for the Westminster Parliament while others have said they would vote. I would like to knowhow certain it is that you would actually vote in a general election if it were held tomorrow. On a ten point scale if 10 would mean you would be absolutely certainto vote and 1 would mean you would be certain not to vote how likely is it that you would cast your vote?Base : All respondents

Prepared by ICM Unlimited - Confidential


2/106

VI Holyrood - Single PersonRecall Westminter VI Westmister WillWillnotnot

DK/Ref voteOther UKIPSNPLDLabConDK/Ref DNVOther UKIPSNPLDLabConDK/Ref voteOther UKIPSNPLDLabConTotal

13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

5632936264421637730582314186801938552-2840273351627966810 - Absolutely certain31%6%67%66%76%90%82%82%42%26%80%94%85%72%80%87%31%-60%62%77%88%88%78%67%to vote

21-411192149913111113211021-41119291380912%-8%21%5%3%7%10%13%6%5%6%5%12%9%10%12%-9%18%5%4%5%13%8%

28-133111239371-10715*24-463318580815%-3%6%9%2%6%4%12%17%4%-4%7%6%*14%-9%9%9%2%4%5%8%

9-616151415*-5-418-7351312875%-13%2%2%3%3%1%5%7%2%-2%-2%1%5%-15%5%1%3%2%1%3%

1---313--2--312-2--231--961%---1%3%2%--1%--1%1%1%-1%--3%1%3%--1%

10-1212-*2316--331-8-1213-12265 6%-1%3%3%-*2%5%7%--1%3%*-5%-1%3%4%-1%2%3%

6---7---56--1---6--16---1243%---2%---8%3%--*---3%--1%2%---1%

141--*--*112---3--15---*--*1638%3%--*--*1%5%---3%--9%---*--*2%

2-3-1--1-7------2-3-1--1731%-6%-*--1%-3%------1%-6%-*--1%1%

536113---1392-121--46------461 - Certain not to vote3%88%1%2%1%---2%17%7%-*2%*--100%------5%

21---3---7111--13224-------24Don't know12%---1%---10%5%2%--1%1%2%14%-------2%

71------26------8-------8Refused4%3%------3%3%------5%-------1%

7.681.648.799.329.289.759.659.578.346.379.189.949.629.199.649.867.821.008.769.179.379.719.789.548.82Mean

2.692.262.331.491.660.840.871.282.273.442.370.241.121.880.990.432.520.002.081.391.430.900.721.262.38Standard deviation

0.250.410.330.210.080.120.060.120.330.290.410.070.070.180.070.040.240.000.300.180.070.130.060.110.08Standard error

Page 2


Absolutes/col percentsTable 1Q1. Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election for the Westminster Parliament while others have said they would vote. I would like to knowhow certain it is that you would actually vote in a general election if it were held tomorrow. On a ten point scale if 10 would mean you would be absolutely certainto vote and 1 would mean you would be certain not to vote how likely is it that you would cast your vote?Base : All respondents



3/106

Lab 2010Voters -

Constituency targetIndyRef Recall IndyRef Recall HolyroodVI Holyrood - List Of CandidatesNET:LD >Lab >Lab >SNPSNPSNPSNPtargetunder over under Will


4/106

RegionSocial gradeWork status AgeGender

MidHigh-Cen- NEScot-landstralNotSco-land &Loth-& Is-Glas-Scot-Re-work-6555 to45 to35 to25 to18 to

WestSouthtlandFifeianslandsgowlandC2DE ABC1Other tiredingPTFTplus6454443424FemaleMaleTotal

9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

1913169118141124778383746351515141934556101Scottish Conservative15%10%12%7%8%9%11%7%4%17%6%16%3%6%11%17%11%10%7%9%3%8%12%10%

26282021255263211074225013207947283429341276108184Scottish Labour 20%22%16%17%18%7%21%22%20%16%16%22%11%18%19%23%21%21%15%15%14%14%23%18%

383795321722212102139108534202040Scottish Liberal2%6%2%6%6%6%3%1%3%5%1%5%9%2%3%5%7%5%3%1%5%4%4%4%Democrat

544449483625415521314048794439142755257568330176177353Scottish National42%35%37%38%27%31%33%37%39%30%36%34%37%35%35%36%38%35%29%38%35%33%37%35%Party/SNP

44261037315247455182558126231539Scottish Green Party3%3%1%5%8%4%6%2%3%5%5%2%4%5%4%1%4%3%4%6%7%4%3%4%

789958993431317111024167918104254065UK Independence Party 6%6%7%7%4%9%7%6%6%7%2%7%9%9%6%8%5%6%10%5%5%5%8%6%(UKIP)

----5--16*2-1-3--1-32336British National Party----4%--1%1%*2%-1%-1%--1%-1%3%1%1%1%(BNP)

----**---1---**-*--*-**1Other ----**---*---**-*--*-***

3842676112719957718321016105252046Will not vote2%6%3%1%4%8%4%8%5%4%7%2%6%6%4%1%1%6%8%4%6%5%4%5%

11142819231817238964302122225818132040471612430153Don't know9%11%21%15%17%22%13%16%16%14%22%9%18%20%14%9%9%12%21%21%18%23%6%15%

21-5432-99453-53525-312517Refused1%1%-4%3%3%2%-2%2%3%2%3%-1%1%3%1%3%-3%2%1%2%

Page 4


Absolutes/col percentsTable 2Q2. The Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Liberal Democrats, SNP, UKIP and other parties would fight a new election for the Westminster parliamentin your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?Base: All respondents



5/106

VI Holyrood - Single PersonRecall Westminter VI Westmister

WillWill notnotDK/Ref voteOther UKIPSNPLDLabConDK/Ref DNVOther UKIPSNPLDLabConDK/Ref voteOther UKIPSNPLDLabConTotal

13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

2--11-88969*-37966-------101101Scottish Conservative1%--2%*-4%94%9%4%1%-1%6%4%68%-------100%10%

9-2-21170-1107-5151424------184-184Scottish Labour 5%-5%-1%1%86%-2%4%25%-2%13%59%4%------100%-18%

1---1371--61-*31-1-----40--40Scottish Liberal*---*80%*--3%3%-*28%-2%-----100%--4%Democrat

1014132556111668-18227555----353---353Scottish National6%3%10%2%93%10%3%1%15%30%27%-83%24%23%5%----100%---35%Party/SNP

5-30-211-19717941--39-----39Scottish Green Party3%-69%-1%2%*-2%4%24%5%3%8%2%1%--84%-----4%

5--502-5331521481913---65----65UK Independence Party3%--92%1%-2%3%4%7%8%95%4%1%4%13%---100%----6%(UKIP)

--5----1-6----*---6-----6British National Party--13%----1%-3%----*---14%-----1%(BNP)

*-*-------*--*----1-----1Other *-1%-------2%--*----2%-----*

536113---1392-121--46------46Will not vote3%88%1%2%1%---2%17%7%-*2%*--100%------5%

1272-11138*36561-1320217153-------153Don't know71%6%-2%3%6%4%1%50%25%4%-6%18%9%7%90%-------15%

161------116------17-------17Refused9%3%------16%3%------10%-------2%

Page 5


Absolutes/col percentsTable 2Q2. The Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Liberal Democrats, SNP, UKIP and other parties would fight a new election for the Westminster parliamentin your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?Base: All respondents



6/106

Lab 2010Voters -

Constituency targetIndyRef Recall IndyRef Recall HolyroodVI Holyrood - List Of Candidates

NET:LD >Lab >Lab > SNPSNPSNPSNPtargetunder over under Will


7/106

RegionSocial gradeWork status AgeGender MidHigh-Cen-

NEScot-landstralNotSco-land &Loth-& Is-Glas-Scot-Re-work-6555 to45 to35 to25 to18 to


81541086711251153138284479692515672315219170163988924331431763Unweighted base

9695919687418510035533673189747028517510812011613241311380691Weighted base


24282021255242910471205012197447273328311071104175Scottish Labour 25%29%22%22%28%11%28%29%29%21%27%26%17%27%26%27%25%27%24%23%25%23%27%25%




787934762527215891914681472193352UK Independence Party7%9%8%9%4%11%8%6%7%8%3%8%10%13%7%8%6%7%12%6%5%6%9%8%(UKIP)

----2--*2*1-*-1--1-*1112British National Party----2%--***1%-1%-*--1%-*2%***(BNP)

----**---1---**-*--*-**1Other ----1%1%---*---1%*-*--*-***

------------------------Will not vote------------------------

------------------------Don't know------------------------

------------------------Refused------------------------

Page 7


Absolutes/col percentsTable 3Data derived from:-Q1. Some people have said they would not vote in a new General Election for the Westminster Parliament while others have said they would vote. I would like to knowhow certain it is that you would actually vote in a general election if it were held tomorrow?Q2. The Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Liberal Democrats, SNP, UKIP and other parties would fight a new election for the Westminster parliamentin your area. If there were a general election tomorrow which party do you think you would vote for?Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (5%), don't know who they would vote for (15%) or refuse to answer (2%)THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS



8/106


9/106

Lab 2010Voters -



10/106

Total

13%Scottish Conservatives

26%Scottish Labour

6%Scottish LiberalDemocrats

43%SNP

4%Scottish Greens

7%UKIP

-Other

Page 10


Col percentsTable 4Published Vote Intention Figures - Westminster General ElectionPercentages derived from the responses of 841 respondents



11/106


NEScot-landstralNotSco-land &Loth-& Is-Glas-Scot-Re-work-6555 to45 to35 to25 to18 to WestSouthtlandFifeianslandsgowlandC2DE ABC1Other tiredingPTFTplus6454443424FemaleMaleTotal

9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

17161571371311306844538384216191012-376198Scottish Conservative13%12%11%5%10%8%10%8%5%15%3%19%3%7%9%20%11%12%5%5%-7%13%10%

3732213128641461331072757232511054354653449111130241Scottish Labour 29%25%16%24%20%7%33%31%25%23%20%25%19%22%27%26%26%28%28%20%10%21%27%24%



-33*212156113*7*1622-8411Green Party-2%2%*1%1%1%1%1%1%1%*2%*2%*1%3%1%1%-1%1%1%

2424-2*196133345216--7815UK Independence Party1%3%1%3%-2%*1%2%1%1%1%3%3%1%2%1%1%3%--1%2%1%(UKIP)

----1--*-2-*--1-*--1--22British National Party----1%--*-*-*--*-*--1%--**(BNP)

4-2-7*124121121111-**1227916Other 3%-2%-5%*1%1%1%3%1%*2%1%3%1%-**5%3%1%2%2%

282325173929293314478541632348614163045685014676223Did not vote22%18%19%13%29%35%24%22%27%17%40%7%27%30%21%7%12%18%24%31%59%28%16%22%

6910791281042294191511221411419203571471Don't Know / Refused4%7%8%6%7%15%6%7%8%6%3%8%13%10%5%7%8%3%10%9%4%11%3%7%

Page 11


Absolutes/col percentsTable 5Q3/Q4. Could you tell me the party you actually voted for in the Westminter 2010 election? Was it Scottish Conservative, Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal Democrats, SNP, UKIP or another party?Base : All respondents



12/106


DK/Ref voteOther UKIPSNPLDLabConDK/Ref DNVOther UKIPSNPLDLabConDK/Ref voteOther UKIPSNPLDLabConTotal13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

7-110611063-------987-1135146698Scottish Conservative4%-2%19%2%3%5%66%-------100%4%-3%20%2%4%2%66%10%

1916755-1467------241-2114955-1429241Scottish Labour 10%3%14%13%16%-74%7%------100%-12%2%9%13%16%-77%9%24%

232712237127-----111--2021012731157111Scottish Liberal13%4%17%1%6%79%6%8%-----100%--12%4%21%1%8%77%8%7%11%Democrat

11-58184173----218---13178182*53218Scottish National6%-11%14%53%2%4%3%----100%---7%2%14%13%52%1%3%3%22%Party/SNP

118--1----11-----117-21--11Green Party1%3%20%--2%----39%-----1%2%15%-*2%--1%

2-112*------15------114----15UK Independence Party1%-2%22%*------100%------2%21%----1%(UKIP)

*--*1-----2-------**1---2British National Party *--**-----6%-------1%**---*(BNP)

3--33-7*--16-----*1-25-7*16Other 2%--5%1%-3%*--55%-----*2%-3%1%-4%*2%

64371310686149-223------62391515666109223Did not vote36%90%32%19%20%14%7%9%-100%------36%85%33%23%19%16%5%9%22%

49-1310-1671-------4711311-1671Don't Know / Refused27%-3%5%3%-1%7%100%-------28%2%3%4%3%-1%6%7%

Page 12


Absolutes/col percentsTable 5Q3/Q4. Could you tell me the party you actually voted for in the Westminter 2010 election? Was it Scottish Conservative, Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal Democrats, SNP, UKIP or another party?Base : All respondents



13/106

Lab 2010Voters -



14/106



9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

80958895864376943373216618982652551741081201081163431734265810 - Certain to vote62%74%67%76%63%53%61%64%62%70%49%83%69%58%63%84%79%73%56%52%40%60%72%66%

23118610111212504314128134711917172810474692918%8%6%5%7%13%9%8%9%9%10%5%6%11%11%5%7%11%9%13%12%9%10%9%

14517665911512317951330983162712512475811%4%13%5%5%7%8%8%9%5%12%4%5%12%7%4%6%2%8%12%14%10%5%7%

342-92452084551133335782092972%3%1%-7%2%3%3%4%2%3%2%4%1%3%2%2%2%2%3%9%4%2%3%

--45346242014-4142216841014236--3%4%2%5%5%1%1%4%1%2%-4%3%1%2%1%3%4%4%2%3%2%

4-*-183516610341331261011572253%-*-*10%2%4%3%1%8%1%3%1%1%1%1%1%3%4%1%3%1%2%

--2-3-*-412*3--*-122-4264--2%-2%-*-1%*2%*2%--*-1%1%1%-1%*1%

2-143--1101-*217*1-324841132%-1%3%2%--1%2%*-*2%1%2%*1%-2%1%5%1%1%1%

--124-125511-17-1-24255102--*2%3%-1%1%1%1%1%*-1%2%-1%-1%2%3%1%1%1%

38-25789271494671631818642318411 - Certain not to vote2%6%-1%4%8%7%6%5%3%7%2%5%6%4%1%1%5%10%3%4%4%4%4%

-58572452016924615227911630736Don't know-4%6%4%5%2%4%3%4%4%7%1%3%6%4%1%2%4%5%5%7%6%1%4%

----1----1--1---1----1-1Refused----*----*--1%---*----*-*

9.089.169.259.158.638.198.628.678.709.078.199.478.828.688.809.539.439.178.188.577.968.699.068.87Mean

1.802.241.502.112.552.752.542.582.442.082.721.572.442.462.331.441.562.172.982.292.682.402.152.29Standard deviation

0.180.270.130.240.210.320.180.190.120.090.270.090.270.250.120.090.110.150.250.200.390.110.090.07Standard error

Page 14


Absolutes/col percentsTable 6Q5. Some people have said they would not vote in a new election to the Holyrood Scottish Parliament, while others have said they would vote. I would like toknow how certain it is that you would vote in the election to the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood if it were held tomorrow.On a ten point scale if 10 would mean you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 would mean you are certain not to vote, how likely is it that you would cast your vote?Base : All respondents



15/106



13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

55-263627441149773259211319072189834922739278331518065810 - Certain to vote30%-61%68%79%87%76%82%45%26%75%87%87%65%79%85%29%4%58%61%79%82%82%79%66%

18-3931223882232101428523129272191092910%-6%16%9%3%12%8%11%10%10%13%5%13%12%5%13%3%4%14%8%4%10%10%9%

21-312731545301-14912519-542839575812%-8%2%8%7%7%4%7%13%4%-6%8%5%5%11%-11%6%8%8%5%5%7%

10-723151515*--16110-7451112975%-16%3%1%3%2%1%8%7%2%--1%2%1%6%-15%6%1%3%1%1%3%

9--65-3-1121-252-81-5513-2365%--11%1%-2%-1%5%3%-1%4%1%-5%2%-9%1%3%1%-2%

15-1-2-3257--16-312-322-*2225 8%-1%-1%-1%2%7%3%--1%5%-3%7%-7%3%1%-*2%2%

4---2---32------4---2---642%---*---4%1%------2%---*---1%

8---2--129------8---2--11134%---1%--2%3%4%------4%---1%--1%1%

3-3-2--119------323-1--11022%-8%-1%--1%1%4%------2%4%6%-*--1%1%

-41-------371--21-436--1---411 - Certain not to vote-100%-------17%4%--2%*-2%80%--*---4%

36-------9201-1232293--2-1136Don't know20%-------12%9%2%-1%1%1%2%17%8%--1%-1%1%4%

1-------1-------1-------1Refused*-------1%-------*-------*

7.871.008.639.279.529.769.539.488.326.579.299.879.759.089.639.687.711.788.489.049.519.599.719.488.87Mean

2.350.002.281.331.230.691.011.482.303.441.940.350.751.770.960.982.562.362.251.501.260.990.761.442.29Standard deviation

0.230.000.330.190.060.100.070.140.340.290.330.100.050.170.060.080.240.410.330.190.060.140.060.130.07Standard error

Page 15


Absolutes/col percentsTable 6Q5. Some people have said they would not vote in a new election to the Holyrood Scottish Parliament, while others have said they would vote. I would like toknow how certain it is that you would vote in the election to the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood if it were held tomorrow.On a ten point scale if 10 would mean you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 would mean you are certain not to vote, how likely is it that you would cast your vote?Base : All respondents



16/106

Lab 2010Voters -

Constituency targetIndyRef Recall IndyRef Recall HolyroodVI Holyrood - List Of Candidates NET:LD >Lab >Lab >SNPSNPSNPSNPtargetunder over under Will


17/106



9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base


30252218305323611682235417198452283337311783114198Scottish Labour 23%19%16%15%22%6%25%25%21%18%17%24%15%17%21%25%20%20%19%14%20%16%24%20%





----5---5*2---3--*-32235British National Party----4%---1%*2%---1%--*-1%3%*1%1%(BNP)

--1--*---1-1-*--1----*11Other --*--*---*-*-*--1%----***

38-2578927149467163181864231841Will not vote2%6%-1%4%8%7%6%5%3%7%2%5%6%4%1%1%5%10%3%4%4%4%4%

14173023211615269368312122206717132438521712635161Don't know11%13%23%18%16%19%12%17%17%15%23%9%18%17%16%8%10%15%20%24%20%24%7%16%

24-23611126393-375223-14518Refused1%3%-1%2%7%1%1%2%1%2%4%3%-1%3%3%1%1%1%-3%1%2%

Page 17


Absolutes/col percentsTable 7Q6. In elections for the Scottish Parliament you have two votes. One of these is for a single person to represent your constituency in the parliament.If the election for the Scottish Parliament were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for in the constituency election? Would you vote Scottish Conservative,Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal Democrat, Scottish National Party (SNP) or for another party?Base: All respondents



18/106



13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

-------9569*-37763*-131--8995Scottish Conservative-------100%9%4%1%-1%6%3%64%*-2%5%*--88%9%

------198-1147-712146108-15611708198Scottish Labour ------100%-2%6%23%-3%11%61%10%5%-2%7%2%1%92%8%20%

-----47---61-137-13-1-5371-47Scottish Liberal-----100%---3%3%-*33%-2%2%-2%-1%94%*-5%Democrat

----348---10684*1842255611322325121348Scottish National----100%---14%31%14%2%84%19%23%6%7%7%5%3%92%3%1%1%35%Party/SNP

--36-----18815761--30-4-2-36Scottish Green Party--85%-----2%3%29%5%2%6%2%1%--64%-1%-1%-4%

---54----3103128171011-501--154UK Independence Party---100%----4%5%11%81%3%1%3%11%1%2%-77%*--1%5%(UKIP)

--5------5----*---5-----5British National Party--13%------2%----*---12%-----1%(BNP)

--1------1---*---1*-----1Other --2%------*---*---1%1%-----*

-41-------371--21-436--1---41Will not vote-100%-------17%4%--2%*-2%80%--*---4%

161-------34644211201971285557192161Don't know90%-------48%29%15%12%5%18%8%7%75%10%11%7%2%2%5%2%16%

18-------15----3--15---3---18Refused10%-------21%----3%--9%---1%---2%

Page 18


Absolutes/col percentsTable 7Q6. In elections for the Scottish Parliament you have two votes. One of these is for a single person to represent your constituency in the parliament.If the election for the Scottish Parliament were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for in the constituency election? Would you vote Scottish Conservative,Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal Democrat, Scottish National Party (SNP) or for another party?Base: All respondents



19/106

Lab 2010Voters -

Constituency targetIndyRef Recall IndyRef Recall HolyroodVI Holyrood - List Of Candidates NET:LD >Lab >Lab >SNPSNPSNPSNPtargetunder over under Will


20/106




80511086611451152138285476682485775312217169164988626330430760Unweighted base

958791958842859835033170187767327517310611611312844309372681Weighted base


25242018265273110472195314187350263130261372104176Scottish Labour 27%28%22%19%30%12%32%31%30%22%27%28%18%25%26%29%25%26%27%20%30%23%28%26%





----2---1*1---1--*-*1112British National Party----2%---**1%---*--*-*2%***(BNP)

--*--*---*-*-*--*----***Other --*--1%---*-*-1%--*----***

Page 20


Absolutes/col percentsTable 8Data derived from:-Q5. Some people have said they would not vote in a new election to the Holyrood Scottish Parliament, while others have said they would vote. I would like toknow how certain it is that you would vote in the election to the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood if it were held tomorrow.Q6. In elections for the Scottish Parliament you have two votes. One of these is for a single person to represent your constituency in the parliament.If the election for the Scottish Parliament were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for in the constituency election?Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (4%), don't know who they would vote for (16%) or refuse to answer (2%)THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS



21/106


22/106

Lab 2010Voters -



23/106

Total


26%Scottish Labour


44%SNP

4%Scottish Greens

6%UKIP

1%Other

Page 23


Col percentsTable 9Published Vote Intention Figures - Holyrood Constituency VotePercentages derived from the responses of 832 respondents



24/106




9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base


2930181821527371117422521717785228303436777109186Scottish Labour 23%23%14%14%16%7%21%25%21%16%16%23%14%15%19%25%20%18%18%16%8%14%23%19%



1945229107313571015827688131715392867Scottish Green Party1%7%3%4%16%11%8%5%6%8%5%4%13%7%7%3%6%5%7%8%17%7%6%7%4810105768302941481023156813115233659UK Independence Party3%6%8%8%4%8%5%5%6%6%3%6%7%9%6%7%5%5%7%5%6%4%8%6%(UKIP)

---13---222---2--*-124*4British National Party---1%2%---**2%---*--*-1%3%1%**(BNP)

2-1--**-21-12*-*12----33Other 1%-*--**-**-*1%*-*1%1%----1%*

38-2578927149467163181864231841Will not vote2%6%-1%4%8%7%6%5%3%7%2%5%6%4%1%1%5%10%3%4%4%4%4%

9183129221416269667281828207013202439501712538163Don't know7%14%23%23%16%17%13%18%18%15%21%8%23%17%17%6%14%15%20%23%21%24%8%16%

24-2361-116383-365223-14418Refused1%3%-1%2%7%1%-2%1%2%4%3%-1%3%3%1%1%1%-3%1%2%

Page 24


Absolutes/col percentsTable 10Q7. The other vote you have in a Scottish Parliament election is for a list of one or more candidates to represent your region of Scotland. You can use this to votefor a different party to the one you gave your constituency vote - or for the same party. If the election to the Scottish Parliament were held tomorrow, whichparty's regional list would you you vote for - Scottish Conservative, Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal Democrat, Scottish National Party (SNP), Scottish Green,or for another party?Base: All respondents



25/106



13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

*-*111484661-475631-131128291Scottish Conservative*-1%2%*2%2%88%9%3%2%-2%6%2%64%1%-3%5%*2%1%81%9%

12-1-6216321175-413137811--3621577186Scottish Labour 7%-2%-2%5%82%2%2%8%18%-2%12%57%9%6%--5%2%5%85%7%19%

2--*32893-72-3263321-*42510345Scottish Liberal1%--*1%60%4%3%-3%7%-1%24%1%3%1%3%-*1%63%5%3%4%Democrat

1-52307*1019607-1771357510263299123328Scottish National1%-12%5%88%*5%2%13%27%24%-81%12%24%5%6%4%13%5%85%4%1%3%33%Party/SNP

2-33-2255-118811018911-33*2444-67Scottish Green Party1%-77%-6%11%3%-2%8%29%5%5%16%4%1%1%-71%1%7%10%2%-7%

---4831433123128181211-494-2359UK Independence Party---90%1%2%2%3%4%6%9%81%4%1%3%12%1%2%-75%1%-1%3%6%(UKIP)

--31-----2--1-*---3-1---4British National Party--7%2%-----1%--1%-*---6%-*---*(BNP)

--1*2----1**--2--1-12---3Other --1%*1%----*1%2%--1%--1%-1%*---*

-41-------371--21-436--1---41Will not vote-100%-------17%4%--2%*-2%80%--*---4%

144---593236622211271951265359663163Don't know80%---2%19%2%2%50%28%6%12%5%25%8%5%74%10%7%8%2%15%3%3%16%

18-------14----3--15---2---18Refused10%-------20%----3%--9%---1%---2%

Page 25


Absolutes/col percentsTable 10Q7. The other vote you have in a Scottish Parliament election is for a list of one or more candidates to represent your region of Scotland. You can use this to votefor a different party to the one you gave your constituency vote - or for the same party. If the election to the Scottish Parliament were held tomorrow, whichparty's regional list would you you vote for - Scottish Conservative, Scottish Labour, Scottish Liberal Democrat, Scottish National Party (SNP), Scottish Green,or for another party?Base: All respondents



26/106

Lab 2010Voters - Constituency targetIndyRef Recall IndyRef Recall HolyroodVI Holyrood - List Of Candidates

NET:LD >Lab >Lab >SNPSNPSNPSNPtargetunder over under Will


27/106




79511096411353150138284473682505574311219167164978525327430757Unweighted base

968891908744859834833072191707227317810211611312643305373678Weighted base


2329171819524321006718511416695026292828667100167Scottish Labour 24%33%19%20%22%12%28%32%29%20%25%27%19%22%25%28%26%25%25%22%14%22%27%25%





---11---121---2--*-112*3British National Party---1%1%---*1%1%---1%--*-1%2%1%**(BNP)

2-*--**-21-*2*-**2----22Other 2%-*--1%*-**-*2%*-**1%----1%*

Page 27


Absolutes/col percentsTable 11Data derived from:-Q5. Some people have said they would not vote in a new election to the Holyrood Scottish Parliament, while others have said they would vote. I would like toknow how certain it is that you would vote in the election to the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood if it were held tomorrow.Q7. The other vote you have in a Scottish Parliament election is for a list of one or more candidates to represent your region of Scotland. You can use this to votefor a different party to the one you gave your constituency vote - or for the same party. If the election to the Scottish Parliament were held tomorrow, whichparty's regional list would you you vote for?Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (4%), don't know who they would vote for (16%) or refuse to answer (2%)THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS



28/106



9-4143347451651071140251025489204124193385034443151111757Unweighted base

11-3144301331738515601811201732118919330482982816289678Weighted base

*-*11147752*-465611-131127584Scottish Conservative4%-1%2%*3%3%90%36%4%2%-2%8%2%69%3%-4%6%*3%1%85%12%

8-1-511502182-41113287--1511486167Scottish Labour 67%-3%-2%4%87%2%9%14%14%-2%15%63%9%35%--3%2%4%91%6%25%

1--*12653-21-226321*-*4236336Scottish Liberal12%--1%*79%3%3%-4%6%-1%36%2%2%4%5%-*1%80%3%3%5%Democrat

1-32271*716306-174125459233262123286Scottish National11%-8%6%90%1%4%2%40%51%30%-86%16%25%6%46%74%11%7%88%3%1%4%42%Party/SNP

1-26-1944-11061917811-24*2124-53Scottish Green Party7%-83%-6%11%2%-4%16%34%7%5%23%4%1%7%-80%1%7%8%2%-8%

---392122262108171111-393-1247UK Independence Party---88%1%3%1%2%10%9%13%90%4%2%3%13%5%19%-81%1%-1%2%7%(UKIP)

--11-----1--1-*---1-1---3British National Party--4%3%-----1%--1%-*---4%-*---*(BNP)

--**2----***--2--*-12---2Other --*1%1%----*1%3%--1%--2%-1%1%---*

Page 28


Absolutes/col percentsTable 11Data derived from:-Q5. Some people have said they would not vote in a new election to the Holyrood Scottish Parliament, while others have said they would vote. I would like toknow how certain it is that you would vote in the election to the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood if it were held tomorrow.Q7. The other vote you have in a Scottish Parliament election is for a list of one or more candidates to represent your region of Scotland. You can use this to votefor a different party to the one you gave your constituency vote - or for the same party. If the election to the Scottish Parliament were held tomorrow, whichparty's regional list would you you vote for?Data excludes those who definitely will not vote (4%), don't know who they would vote for (16%) or refuse to answer (2%)THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS



29/106

Lab 2010Voters -



30/106

Total


25%Scottish Labour


42%SNP

8%Scottish Greens

7%UKIP

1%Other

Page 30


Col percentsTable 12Published Vote Intention Figures - Holyrood Regional VotePercentages derived from the responses of 832 respondents



31/106


NEScot-landstralNot Sco-land &Loth-& Is-Glas-Scot-Re-work-6555 to45 to35 to25 to18 toWestSouthtlandFifeianslandsgowlandC2DE ABC1Other tiredingPTFTplus6454443424FemaleMaleTotal

9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base


28321825237324311889236019198658323440331190117207Scottish Labour 21%25%14%20%17%9%25%29%22%19%17%26%16%17%21%28%23%21%21%15%13%17%25%21%

16912913432432414163191011121094263056Scottish Liberal1%4%7%9%6%16%3%2%4%7%3%6%14%2%5%5%8%7%5%4%5%5%6%6%Democrats

422950513210374416812732793436114754450516015132163296Scottish National party32%23%38%41%24%12%30%30%31%28%24%35%29%32%28%36%32%31%27%27%17%25%34%29%(SNP)

131122217643**523341-5813Other party1%2%1%1%2%3%1%1%1%1%3%1%**1%1%2%2%2%1%-1%2%1%

262629204628303114095561334349714153253724816174235Did not vote

20%20%22%16%33%34%24%21%26%21%42%6%29%30%24%7%11%20%28%33%57%30%16%23%24-2331298-93-57523--11617Refused1%3%-1%2%3%1%2%2%2%-4%3%-1%3%3%1%2%--2%1%2%

12111388129145037111081544691421306662187Don't know9%9%10%6%6%15%7%10%9%8%8%4%7%13%11%3%7%9%11%13%7%12%4%9%

Page 31


Absolutes/col percentsTable 13Q9. In the May 2011 Scottish Parliament election you had two votes. Your first vote was for a single person to represent your constituency in the Parliament?Can you remember, did you use your first vote to vote...Base : All respondents



32/106

VI Holyrood - Single PersonRecall Westminter VI Westmister WillWill

notnot DK/Ref voteOther UKIPSNPLDLabConDK/Ref DNVOther UKIPSNPLDLabConDK/Ref voteOther UKIPSNPLDLabConTotal

13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

3-110117723-**-65792-1131127394Scottish Conservative2%-3%18%*1%4%76%5%-1%2%-5%2%81%1%-3%20%*2%1%72%9%

14158272147232*-3918731414102911444207Scottish Labour 8%3%12%15%8%4%75%2%4%1%1%-1%8%78%3%8%2%8%15%8%3%78%4%21%

8-4*63071211-1491211-4*7257156Scottish Liberal4%-10%*2%63%4%1%3%*3%-*44%*2%6%-8%*2%64%4%1%6%Democrats

9-91424846561864207192971231116243255296Scottish National party5%-22%26%71%8%3%6%8%8%20%29%95%18%12%7%7%6%23%24%69%4%3%5%29%(SNP)

2255*-----64-21*1255*--*13Other party1%4%11%9%*-----21%25%-2%**1%4%10%7%*--*1%

813713115362410121861153774723817155462012235Did not vote45%90%30%20%15%14%12%11%17%84%38%33%1%6%3%4%42%82%36%24%15%16%11%12%23%

161------16-1-----121--3---17Refused9%3%------22%-4%-----7%2%--1%---2%

48-5613464301642418103451661445587Don't know27%-12%11%4%10%3%5%42%7%13%11%2%17%4%3%27%3%12%9%4%11%3%5%9%

Page 32


Absolutes/col percentsTable 13Q9. In the May 2011 Scottish Parliament election you had two votes. Your first vote was for a single person to represent your constituency in the Parliament?Can you remember, did you use your first vote to vote...Base : All respondents



33/106

Lab 2010Voters -

Constituency targetIndyRef Recall IndyRef Recall HolyroodVI Holyrood - List Of CandidatesNET:LD >Lab >Lab >SNPSNPSNPSNP targetunder over under Will


34/106


NEScot-landstralNot Sco-land &Loth-& Is-Glas-Scot-Re-work-6555 to45 to35 to25 to18 toWestSouthtlandFifeianslandsgowlandC2DE ABC1Other tiredingPTFTplus6454443424FemaleMaleTotal

9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

6046575355375559255166608059481757554717511334220202422Yes46%36%43%42%40%45%44%40%47%36%44%35%50%42%43%36%40%44%39%51%40%42%43%42%

63686458683854742252625713939561961277579878731244243487No49%53%49%46%50%47%44%51%41%57%42%61%33%49%48%61%55%48%46%40%37%46%51%49%

38611116111043241631352921925819442266Did not vote3%6%4%9%8%8%9%7%8%5%12%1%11%4%7%1%1%6%13%4%23%8%5%7%

13332-21106-1455-2-310-13315Don't know1%3%2%2%2%-2%*2%1%-1%3%4%1%-2%-1%5%-2%1%2%

22221*13104263-244412-9514Refused1%2%1%1%1%1%1%2%2%1%2%3%3%-1%2%3%2%1%1%-2%1%1%

Page 34


Absolutes/col percentsTable 14Q10. And thinking back to the referendum on independence for Scotland on 18th September this year, did you vote Yes for Independence for Scotland, or No toindependence to Scotland?Base : All respondents



35/106

VI Holyrood - Single PersonRecall Westminter VI Westmister WillWill

notnot DK/Ref voteOther UKIPSNPLDLabConDK/Ref DNVOther UKIPSNPLDLabConDK/Ref voteOther UKIPSNPLDLabConTotal

13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

284201230815295118611417440831333620143079266422Yes16%10%48%23%89%32%15%5%16%38%38%29%80%36%34%13%20%14%43%22%87%22%14%6%42%

109915393531162873381131043681548592141948373015691487No61%21%36%73%10%66%82%92%47%36%45%71%20%62%64%87%54%31%41%74%11%75%85%90%49%

19286231522563-122-252462411466Did not vote11%67%13%4%1%3%2%2%2%25%12%-1%2%1%-15%52%12%4%1%3%*4%7%

12-1---2-14-----2-12-1---2-15Don't know7%-3%---1%-19%-----1%-7%-3%---1%-2%

111--2---1112-----81--5---14Refused6%3%--*---16%*5%-----5%2%--1%---1%

Page 35


Absolutes/col percentsTable 14Q10. And thinking back to the referendum on independence for Scotland on 18th September this year, did you vote Yes for Independence for Scotland, or No toindependence to Scotland?Base : All respondents



36/106

Lab 2010Voters -

Constituency targetIndyRef Recall IndyRef Recall HolyroodVI Holyrood - List Of CandidatesNET:LD >Lab >Lab >SNPSNPSNPSNP targetunder over under Will


37/106



WestSouthtlandFifeianslandsgowlandC2DE ABC1Other tiredingPTFTplus6454443424FemaleMaleTotal9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

394948485626405117318540893743149834257667435175183358British30%38%37%38%41%32%32%35%32%40%30%39%31%38%36%40%31%35%35%33%41%33%39%36%

8772717467447490335244681357668230122899910512638308270579Scottish67%56%54%59%49%54%59%62%62%53%51%59%64%60%56%59%65%61%55%57%44%58%57%58%

-710312109334212425221235161811361955Other -6%7%3%9%13%7%2%6%5%18%1%5%2%5%1%2%3%8%8%13%7%4%5%

4-31112121132--712152111213Don't know3%-3%1%1%1%1%1%*2%2%1%--2%1%1%1%2%1%1%2%*1%

Page 37


Absolutes/col percentsTable 15QM1. If you had to choose between the two, would you rather describe yourself as...Base : All respondents



38/106



13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

707213729171156220611511295410265679224631189768358British39%16%48%70%8%37%58%66%29%27%51%79%13%49%42%67%40%19%47%71%9%45%53%67%36%

882016153062677294712293187481313179231818309208130579Scottish49%48%37%28%88%56%39%31%66%55%32%20%86%44%55%32%46%51%40%27%88%50%44%29%58%

181241103422354*18322111411024255Other 10%30%10%2%3%7%2%2%2%16%15%2%*8%1%2%12%24%9%2%3%5%2%2%5%

332-2-21251-1-4-332-2-2113Don't know2%6%4%-1%-1%1%3%2%2%-1%-2%-2%6%4%-1%-1%1%1%

Page 38


Absolutes/col percentsTable 15QM1. If you had to choose between the two, would you rather describe yourself as...Base : All respondents



39/106

Lab 2010Voters -



40/106




12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

826661717539736826027559158685019914981957910526231303534Yes64%51%46%56%55%48%59%46%48%60%44%69%57%44%49%72%59%58%41%47%31%44%64%53%

47637156624251792831867571516420959566811211659298171470N036%49%54%44%45%52%41%54%52%40%56%31%43%56%51%28%41%42%59%53%69%56%36%47%

Page 40


Absolutes/col percentsTable 16QM2a. Do you know who this person is? Jim MurphyBase : All respondents



41/106



13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

60102326207281216029691451316815167551123342082711263534Yes33%25%53%48%60%60%61%63%40%31%49%37%60%61%63%68%32%24%51%53%59%68%61%63%53%

1203120281411977354315315987438931115352330144137238470N067%75%47%52%40%40%39%37%60%69%51%63%40%39%37%32%68%76%49%47%41%32%39%37%47%

Page 41


Absolutes/col percentsTable 16QM2a. Do you know who this person is? Jim MurphyBase : All respondents



42/106

Lab 2010Voters -



43/106




12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

1261271271181267111013750343911922510810938220413315917920167495448943Yes98%99%96%94%92%87%89%94%93%95%88%98%91%96%94%98%97%98%94%91%79%93%94%94%

31581111149402116510426544122018352761N02%1%4%6%8%13%11%6%7%5%12%2%9%4%6%2%3%2%6%9%21%7%6%6%

Page 43


Absolutes/col percentsTable 17QM2b. Do you know who this person is? Alex SalmondBase : All respondents



44/106



13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

1543641533414318789581992314216104234931464044633453717593943Yes86%86%97%98%98%92%95%94%82%89%82%98%99%94%97%95%86%87%96%98%98%93%95%92%94%

256117411613235*267525621839861N014%14%3%2%2%8%5%6%18%11%18%2%1%6%3%5%14%13%4%2%2%7%5%8%6%

Page 44


Absolutes/col percentsTable 17QM2b. Do you know who this person is? Alex SalmondBase : All respondents



45/106

Lab 2010Voters -



46/106




12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

12194117113102651021294424021051959610234517811414517117759440404844Yes94%73%89%90%74%79%82%89%81%87%78%85%81%90%85%86%83%89%90%80%69%83%85%84%

8341513351722171015929342212633023182044269071160N06%27%11%10%26%21%18%11%19%13%22%15%19%10%15%14%17%11%10%20%31%17%15%16%

Page 46


Absolutes/col percentsTable 18QM2c. Do you know who this person is? Nicola SturgeonBase : All respondents



47/106



13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

135243342321391678357169171219995210851262637533223415888844Yes76%57%78%78%92%83%84%88%80%76%60%80%91%86%87%87%74%57%80%82%91%84%86%87%84%

4418912278311214541132015311344209123162613160N024%43%22%22%8%17%16%12%20%24%40%20%9%14%13%13%26%43%20%18%9%16%14%13%16%

Page 47


Absolutes/col percentsTable 18QM2c. Do you know who this person is? Nicola SturgeonBase : All respondents



48/106


49/106




12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

2125143822111819749420641812555822212039857111169Yes16%20%11%30%16%13%15%13%14%20%15%28%15%10%14%28%16%13%11%18%9%11%23%17%

108103118881157110612746936711516510110235215111414117118277472363835N084%80%89%70%84%87%85%87%86%80%85%72%85%90%86%72%84%87%89%82%91%89%77%83%

Page 49


Absolutes/col percentsTable 19QM2d. Do you know who this person is? Willie RennieBase : All respondents



50/106



13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

1245977122921521114925432416451073102822169Yes7%10%11%16%22%25%15%22%8%10%4%4%22%22%18%24%9%8%11%16%21%26%15%22%17%

167373845271351687466201271416986198741544241542803015679835N093%90%89%84%78%75%85%78%92%90%96%96%78%78%82%76%91%92%89%84%79%74%85%78%83%

Page 50


Absolutes/col percentsTable 19QM2d. Do you know who this person is? Willie RennieBase : All respondents



51/106

Lab 2010Voters -



52/106




12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

472634375125504814317440984327110864452506521140177317Yes36%21%26%29%37%30%40%33%26%38%30%43%36%23%27%41%32%32%26%29%25%26%37%32%

821029889865774984002879513276872981229211114215664389297687N064%79%74%71%63%70%60%67%74%62%70%57%64%77%73%59%68%68%74%71%75%74%63%68%

Page 52


Absolutes/col percentsTable 20QM2e. Do you know who this person is? Ruth DavidsonBase : All respondents



53/106



13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

3271617125136741114581843977534161223125105645317Yes18%17%38%31%36%27%34%44%15%20%27%4%39%35%32%54%24%14%26%35%35%25%30%44%32%

148342737223341315360178211413472163451293934422283012856687N082%83%62%69%64%73%66%56%85%80%73%96%61%65%68%46%76%86%74%65%65%75%70%56%68%

Page 53


Absolutes/col percentsTable 20QM2e. Do you know who this person is? Ruth DavidsonBase : All respondents



54/106

Lab 2010Voters -



55/106




12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

4540444047224139144175321003821129934051575820135184319Good35%32%33%32%35%27%33%27%27%38%24%44%32%18%32%45%29%31%30%26%24%25%39%32%

262319342416282810396384113248339234328462095104199Bad20%18%14%27%17%20%23%19%19%21%28%18%11%21%20%19%17%26%15%21%23%18%22%20%

57656952664355792961906588686919676736910611745300186486Don't know45%51%52%41%48%53%45%54%54%41%48%38%57%61%48%36%54%43%56%53%53%57%39%48%

Page 55


Absolutes/col percentsTable 21QM3a. This person is Jim Murphy, the newly elected leader of Scottish Labour. Do you think he will make a good or bad contribution to Scottish politics in the future?Base : All respondents


Page 56


56/106



13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base

179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

26191964241245115321074546118472331122692011555319Good15%2%22%36%18%51%63%54%21%15%34%45%20%42%49%48%14%7%23%35%20%51%63%55%32%

76761545410344429318251087871495410199Bad4%15%17%12%44%10%2%11%5%20%12%12%43%16%10%10%5%16%17%11%42%12%2%10%20%

1463426281301869335314615681479741139352835134156535486Don't know82%83%61%53%37%39%35%35%74%66%53%43%37%42%40%42%82%77%60%55%38%37%35%35%48%

Page 56


Absolutes/col percentsTable 21QM3a. This person is Jim Murphy, the newly elected leader of Scottish Labour. Do you think he will make a good or bad contribution to Scottish politics in the future?Base : All respondents


Page 57


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Lab 2010Voters -



58/106



9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

796071736841637532520574109746620610271859612749277253530Good61%47%54%58%50%51%50%52%60%45%55%48%62%59%51%49%52%52%50%58%58%52%53%53%

275340295120364312217825932823131824756623418141159299Bad21%41%30%23%37%25%29%29%22%39%18%40%24%20%32%39%34%35%33%16%21%27%33%30%

23152124182026289778362816247024192133591811263175Don't know18%12%16%19%13%24%21%19%18%17%27%12%14%21%17%12%14%13%17%27%21%21%13%17%

Page 58


Absolutes/col percentsTable 22QM3b. This person is Alex Salmond, ex-leader of the SNP and now prospective Westminster parliamentary candidate for the SNP in the Aberdeenshire constituency of Gordon.Do you think he will make a good or bad contribution to Scottish politics in the future?Base : All respondents


Page 59


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179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

608261832520571626119156188531071760142521331134918530Good34%20%60%34%93%43%29%17%36%53%51%44%86%48%44%18%35%30%54%32%94%33%27%18%53%

50138245241076717486514439770431493252410171299Bad28%31%20%45%2%52%54%71%24%21%22%37%6%39%40%71%25%30%20%50%1%60%55%70%30%

6920911183341128568317153711671812121733312175Don't know39%50%20%21%5%5%17%12%40%25%27%19%8%14%15%11%40%39%26%18%5%6%18%12%17%

Page 59


Absolutes/col percentsTable 22QM3b. This person is Alex Salmond, ex-leader of the SNP and now prospective Westminster parliamentary candidate for the SNP in the Aberdeenshire constituency of Gordon.Do you think he will make a good or bad contribution to Scottish politics in the future?Base : All respondents


Page 60


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Lab 2010Voters -



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9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

725768576749647729321871111636120610674799611245266246512Good55%44%51%46%49%60%52%53%54%47%52%49%53%54%51%51%54%48%50%51%53%50%52%51%

274137243818343811614230782519106733841484018115143258Bad21%32%28%19%28%22%27%26%21%31%22%34%21%17%26%35%28%25%25%18%21%22%30%26%

3030274531142631133101344031349630254347682214985234Don't know24%24%20%36%23%18%21%21%25%22%26%17%26%30%23%14%18%26%25%31%25%28%18%23%

g


Absolutes/col percentsTable 23QM3c. This person is Nicola Sturgeon, the new First Minister of Scotland and the Leader of the Scottish National Party.Do you think she will make a good or bad contribution to Scottish politics in the future?Base : All respondents


Page 62


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179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

549192032313658281081510184421121455151927321125211512Good30%23%45%37%93%27%33%9%39%48%53%67%84%38%47%14%32%33%41%41%91%29%28%11%51%

38881862097632234731135836431910216209666258Bad21%19%19%34%2%43%49%67%31%15%26%19%5%31%34%65%18%20%21%33%2%50%52%65%26%

872416161914362421816224344620852118172583624234Don't know49%58%36%29%6%29%18%25%30%36%21%14%11%31%19%21%50%47%38%26%7%21%19%24%23%


Absolutes/col percentsTable 23QM3c. This person is Nicola Sturgeon, the new First Minister of Scotland and the Leader of the Scottish National Party.Do you think she will make a good or bad contribution to Scottish politics in the future?Base : All respondents


Page 63


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Lab 2010Voters -



64/106



9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

131013233110131066581145226404114181424125074124Good10%8%10%18%23%12%11%7%12%13%8%20%18%5%10%20%10%11%7%11%15%9%16%12%

254631323029323314011837642920108583653454125103155258Bad19%36%23%25%22%36%26%23%26%26%27%28%24%18%27%28%27%32%23%19%30%19%33%26%

91728871754379103337285871206887259109869213215547377245622Don't know71%56%67%57%55%52%63%71%62%62%65%52%58%77%64%52%63%57%69%70%56%71%52%62%


Absolutes/col percentsTable 24QM3d. This person is Willie Rennie, current leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats.Do you think he will make a good or bad contribution to Scottish politics in the future?Base : All respondents


Page 65

SCOTLAND POLL DECEMBER 2014


65/106



179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

10213222941158135-142934191421330223319124Good6%6%2%5%6%63%21%16%12%6%18%-6%27%14%20%8%5%2%5%8%56%18%19%12%

20914161324432165585841561251412152113224121258Bad11%21%32%29%38%9%22%22%9%25%27%31%38%14%25%26%8%27%33%32%37%6%23%21%26%

149302835194131145957154161012166145531433130411911511061622Don't know83%73%66%66%56%29%57%62%80%69%55%69%55%60%60%55%84%68%66%63%54%38%60%61%62%


Absolutes/col percentsTable 24QM3d. This person is Willie Rennie, current leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats.Do you think he will make a good or bad contribution to Scottish politics in the future?Base : All respondents


Page 66



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Lab 2010Voters -



67/106


NEScot-landstralNot

Sco-land &Loth-& Is-Glas-Scot-Re-work-6555 to45 to35 to25 to18 to WestSouthtlandFifeianslandsgowlandC2DE ABC1Other tiredingPTFTplus6454443424FemaleMaleTotal

9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

30252720331926317214118761711906928393137897115212Good24%19%20%16%24%24%21%21%13%31%13%33%15%10%22%33%21%24%16%17%9%18%24%21%

453948465437525423014566835138138784767677442183192375Bad35%31%36%36%39%45%42%37%42%31%49%36%43%33%34%37%34%41%35%33%50%34%40%37%

5364576050264662241176527050651806161579311035250167417Don't know41%50%43%47%36%31%37%42%44%38%38%31%42%57%44%29%45%35%48%50%41%47%35%42%


Absolutes/col percentsTable 25QM3e. This person is Ruth Davidson, current leader of the Scottish Conservatives.Do you think she will make a good or bad contribution to Scottish politics in the future?Base : All respondents


Page 68



68/106



179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

321410261358681521322724546737131428134573212Good18%2%9%19%7%29%29%72%21%9%10%12%12%21%23%69%22%2%6%21%8%34%24%72%21%

22121818223166428831031253610181915161922411655375Bad12%29%41%33%64%34%32%3%12%37%36%19%57%33%42%9%11%34%35%29%63%29%35%5%37%

1252821259917762548119161067518522115292732101157423417Don't know70%69%50%47%29%37%38%26%67%53%55%69%31%46%36%22%67%64%59%50%29%38%40%23%42%


Absolutes/col percentsTable 25QM3e. This person is Ruth Davidson, current leader of the Scottish Conservatives.Do you think she will make a good or bad contribution to Scottish politics in the future?Base : All respondents



69/106

Page 70



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NEScot-landstralNot


9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

132516152291213517514471084741252518985867126Go too far 10%19%12%12%16%12%9%9%9%16%10%21%9%7%11%20%18%15%9%4%9%11%14%13%

382932293716364112013921683424113673840365524100159260 Are about right29%23%24%23%27%20%29%28%22%30%15%30%29%22%28%32%28%25%19%25%28%19%34%26%

443436414321483716813739833524124743859526616138168305Do not go far enough34%27%27%33%32%25%39%25%31%30%29%36%30%21%30%35%28%36%27%30%19%26%35%30%

33404741343528552041096131395712426353985913723380313Don't know26%31%36%32%25%43%23%37%38%24%46%14%33%51%30%13%26%24%45%41%44%44%17%31%


Absolutes/col percentsTable 26QM4. You may have seen or heard about the Smith commission proposals for further devolution, including extensive new powers over income tax.From what you've seen or heard, do you think these:Base : All respondents



71/106

Page 72



72/106

Lab 2010Voters -



73/106


NEScot-landstralNot


9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

6656687575457670300233731136759220103728710011852268264532Yes51%44%52%60%55%55%61%48%55%50%54%49%57%52%54%49%53%54%52%54%61%51%56%53%

303635243919203398137187923189774354146337104131235No23%28%27%19%28%23%16%22%18%30%13%35%19%16%24%35%26%25%24%15%8%20%28%23%

333629272318284314591443729369032293445692615779236Don't know26%28%22%21%17%22%23%29%27%20%32%16%24%32%22%15%22%21%24%31%31%30%17%24%


Absolutes/col percentsTable 27QM5. Under the Smith Commision plans, Scotland will have extensive control over income tax, but London will remain in charge of corporation tax.Do you think Scotland should be able to set its own corporation tax rate?Base : All respondents


Page 74



74/106



179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

621828203121560173011017517954119185719292631486118532Yes35%44%65%37%90%33%31%17%43%49%61%32%82%48%50%19%34%43%62%40%89%20%33%18%53%

35961992175611238581731616334106238217062235No19%23%15%36%3%45%38%65%17%17%19%54%8%28%25%64%20%23%14%36%2%52%38%61%23%

831491527106217297462222760177916111531115321236Don't know46%33%20%27%8%22%32%18%40%33%20%14%10%24%25%17%46%35%24%24%9%28%29%20%24%


Absolutes/col percentsTable 27QM5. Under the Smith Commision plans, Scotland will have extensive control over income tax, but London will remain in charge of corporation tax.Do you think Scotland should be able to set its own corporation tax rate?Base : All respondents


Page 75



75/106

Lab 2010Voters -

Constituency targetIndyRef Recall IndyRef Recall HolyroodVI Holyrood - List Of CandidatesNET:LD >Lab >Lab >SNPSNPSNPSNP

targetunder over under Will


76/106




9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

332934314318353713912028684219102584647374724115144259Overall taxes should be25%23%26%24%31%21%28%25%26%26%21%30%36%16%25%28%34%29%19%22%28%22%30%26%raised to fund better

public services for Scotland

61565346563054531982115010535371821055174717533198211409The current balance47%44%40%36%41%37%43%36%36%46%37%46%30%32%45%50%37%45%37%34%39%37%45%41%between taxes and

public spending isabout right

14913142321141875511329191748251518303266859126Public expenditure in11%7%10%11%17%25%11%13%14%11%10%13%16%15%12%12%11%11%16%15%7%13%12%13%Scotland should be

reduced to allow for lower taxes

213431351513213813179442722417620252453662214961210Don't know17%27%24%28%11%16%17%26%24%17%32%12%19%36%19%10%18%15%28%30%25%28%13%21%


Absolutes/col percentsTable 28QM6. Scotland is set to get more power over both the taxes that its citizens pay, and the money that is spent over its public services and benefits. Do you think:Base : All respondents



77/106

Page 78



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Lab 2010Voters -



79/106




9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

594352645835596224219161896655162776877838543214218432Scrapped46%34%40%51%42%43%48%42%45%41%45%39%55%49%40%37%50%47%43%39%50%40%46%43%

41584737652841521901803910936251601034861607028169201370Maintained32%45%36%29%48%35%33%36%35%39%29%48%30%22%39%50%35%37%31%32%33%32%42%37%

292732251418243211290353117338628212549661414655202Don't know22%21%25%20%10%22%19%22%21%20%26%14%14%29%21%13%15%15%25%30%17%28%12%20%

Fieldwork : 16th-18th December 2014 Absolutes/col percents

Table 29QM7. Trident, the United Kingdoms nuclear weapons system, is based in Scottish waters. Would you rather it was:Base : All respondents


Page 80



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13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

34192711270174591994152156489083617301527114408432Scrapped19%45%64%20%77%37%23%10%27%42%53%14%72%43%37%8%21%38%64%24%77%35%22%8%43%

661111334222113722168101340381008162151037441910677370Maintained37%26%25%61%12%48%57%76%29%30%34%86%18%34%42%82%36%33%23%57%12%47%58%77%37%

7912510367391331614-222550972136123873815202Don't know44%29%11%19%10%15%20%14%44%27%13%-10%23%21%9%42%29%13%19%11%18%20%15%20%


Table 29QM7. Trident, the United Kingdoms nuclear weapons system, is based in Scottish waters. Would you rather it was:Base : All respondents


Page 81



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Lab 2010Voters -



82/106




9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

5842544756296557145263----4088488112411433179229408Working full time -45%33%41%37%41%35%53%39%27%57%----100%4%35%50%65%52%39%34%48%41%working 30 hours per

week or more

1413171316910207539---113-121722243368528113Working part time -11%11%13%10%12%11%8%14%14%8%---100%-6%13%13%13%15%7%16%6%11%working between 8 and

29 hours per week

67541311015529--61---619121410313061Not working but seeking5%6%4%3%10%1%8%10%10%2%--52%---4%11%6%7%12%6%6%6%work or temporarily

unemployed or sick

3781177410552--57---16141314-381957Not working and not3%6%6%9%5%9%3%7%10%*--48%---11%9%7%6%-7%4%6%seeking work

1426314131456914-95---905----425395Retired on a state11%20%2%11%9%17%4%4%17%1%-42%---43%4%----8%11%10%pension only

1822202419611133599-134---97352---5083134Retired with a private14%18%15%19%14%7%9%9%6%22%-58%---47%26%1%---10%18%13%pension

3-8710895242449-----11*1235252449Student2%-6%5%7%9%7%3%4%5%36%-----***5%42%5%5%5%

131017737919662086----19251734-78886House person,10%8%13%6%2%9%7%13%12%4%64%----1%7%15%9%15%-15%2%9%housewife,

househusband, etc.


Table 30Work statusBase : All respondents


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13631494938452184119531553512268114230137134354861382491681271004Unweighted base179414354348471989571223281521811124198170464665353401841011004Weighted base

70162125134188440228619483471103863182124142137946408Working full time -39%38%50%47%38%38%43%42%30%39%66%29%38%42%46%39%37%39%47%38%40%33%43%45%41%working 30 hours per

week or more

20769442197113413248258227610392207113Working part time -11%16%13%17%13%4%10%8%15%15%3%21%11%7%10%8%13%15%13%15%11%5%11%7%11%working between 8 and

29 hours per week

1142423673820-3711111103382564161Not working but seeking6%10%5%8%7%14%3%3%11%9%-21%3%10%5%1%6%7%7%13%7%15%2%1%6%work or temporarily

unemployed or sick

141411781127125-811112154331859257Not working and not8%3%10%1%5%16%5%2%10%5%18%-4%10%5%2%9%8%6%4%5%12%5%2%6%seeking work

163*53512789101-2743312143*637127895Retired on a state9%7%1%9%10%2%14%9%13%4%5%-12%3%14%12%8%6%1%10%10%2%15%8%10%pension only

141474492727107*34215243312231042112330134Retired with a private8%3%10%13%13%20%14%28%14%3%1%22%19%14%10%33%7%4%8%16%12%29%13%30%13%pension

1234-171101-30*-459-949-13110149Student7%7%9%-5%2%5%1%-14%1%-2%5%4%-6%10%20%-4%2%6%1%5%

22612342127424212310184255-335112786House person,12%15%1%4%10%4%6%7%6%11%6%7%11%9%8%4%15%11%-4%10%2%6%7%9%housewife,

househusband, etc.


Table 30Work statusBase : All respondents


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9769147801517820018240260211029487102411251210210148135504845201004Unweighted base

12912813212613782124146543461135229119113408208136163191221855304741004Weighted base

64645655684064632392363213649282291297886776737-474474Male50%50%43%44%49%49%51%43%44%51%24%60%41%25%56%62%57%53%40%30%43%-100%47%

656476716942608330422510393708517979587711415348530-530Female50%50%57%56%51%51%49%57%56%49%76%40%59%75%44%38%43%47%60%70%57%100%-53%


Table 31Gender Base : All respondents



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RegionSocial gradeWork status

Dec 2014 Guardian/ICM Scotland poll

Documents

Transcript of Dec 2014 Guardian/ICM Scotland poll