Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering Climate Information & Decision Support Systems.

Clyde FraisseAgricultural & Biological Engineering

Climate Information & Decision Support Systems

Dual-purpose of Climate DSS

Education Service

C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

• Drivers of climate variability and change (ENSO, long-term climate projections)

• Effects and potential implications on the SE Climate and worldwide

• Impacts of variability/change on agricultural commodities and water resources

• Risk mitigation and adaptation strategies• Improve resource use efficiency

(irrigation management, carbon & water footprints)

Education Components

How cover crops, pasture-based rotation systems, variable rate irrigation help mitigating climate-related risk?


• Climate monitoring • Short-term and

seasonal forecasts• Translation to ag-

related variables (Degree-days, chill hours, crop yield)

• Alert systems (freezes, disease risk)

Service ComponentsNOAA monitors the Pacific Ocean but UF-IFAS monitors your field!


Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions

Monitoring & Weather Forecast

• What field can I work on this afternoon?

• When can I plant my seeds?

• Should I apply N fertilizer to my fields?

• Will it be dry enough to harvest?

• Should I cut hay today?

• Cold protection tonight?


Flooded peanut field. Doug Mayo – August 2013.

Blueberry freeze, UF-IFAS, February 2002.

Our top challenge is to translate climate information into decisions

Seasonal Climate Forecast

Strategic Decisions

• Best crop/variety to plant this season?

• How much should I invest in fertilizer? How to apply N?

• Should I purchase/increase crop insurance coverage?

• Marketing decisions?

• Should I invest in winter pasture or feed?

C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions

Long-term Climate Projections

?

?

C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS

* Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national policy and long-term planning

Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult!

One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions”

Our VERY top challenge is to translate climate change projections into decisions

Long-term Climate Projections

?

?

• How do I become more resilient to climate extremes?

• Should I invest in land somewhere else?


Making *decisions based on long-term climate projections is much more difficult!

One of the main reasons for extension faculty to be reluctant about addressing climate change issues is the lack of “practical solutions”


* Decisions at the producer level, not in terms of national or regional planning

Dual-Purpose of Climate DSS – Our Vision

Timeframe

Prio

rity

/ In

tens

ity

ClimateMonitoring

Short-termforecast

Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection

Service

Education

Should we concentrate efforts here?

C. W. Fraisse, UF-IFAS Fraisse et al. 2014. Dual-purpose of climate DSS (in preparation).

Different Perspectives of the Same Problem

Timeframe

Inte

nsity

ClimateMonitoring

Short-termforecast

Seasonal Decadal Long-term climate projection

Smartphones

Web-based DSS


HOME TOOLS FORECASTS STATE SUMMARIES MANAGEMENT CLIMATE EXTENSION ABOUT

Examples of questions that AgroClimate can help answering

1. Effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in our climate?

2. Levels of water stress in the SE?

3. Typical carbon footprint of corn produced in the SE USA?

4. Current strawberry disease risk? Should I apply fungicide?

5. Best peanut planting dates during La Niña years (water stress)?


AgroClimate tools: Climate anomaly maps


AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk


AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Average rainfall – El Niño years


AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average – El Niño years


AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Deviation from long-term average La Niña years


AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability distribution – Rainfall La Niña years


AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years

37%


AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Probability of exceedance – Rainfall La Niña years

63%


AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, current year


AgroClimate tools: Climate Risk – Rainfall, last 5 years



Number of days with moderate or high Botrytis risk in Plant City, FL

Chill accumulation (hours per season), Marion County, FL.

ENSO ImpactsEl Niño La Niña

AgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought


AgroClimate tools: Carbon footprint calculator - StrawberryAgroClimate tools: ARID - Agricultural Reference Index for Drought


AgroClimate tools: Strawberry Advisory System


SAS App• Monitors infection risk for Anthracnose and Botrytis fruit rot

• Users receive notification messages when the model detects a potential infection risk according to observed weather conditions.

1. Weather and crop monitoring2. Strawberry disease alert

Available October 2014


SAS – Behind the DSS


AgroClimate Management: Conservatoin Tillage


Thank you!

Interested in organizing an AgroClimate workshop in your area?

Clyde FraisseAgricultural & Biological EngineeringUniversity of Florida – IFAS352-392-1864 ext [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Clyde Fraisse Agricultural & Biological Engineering Climate Information & Decision Support Systems.

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