Closing the loop: assessing adaptive capacity on farms for potential changes to farming enterprises under climate change

Kerry Bridle1,2, Peter Brown1, Shaun Lisson1, David Parsons2, Neil MacLeod1

1 CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences

2 Tasmanian Institute of Agricultural Research

kerry.bridle@utas.edu.au

Developing climate change adaptation strategies for the mixed crop-livestock farming systems of Tasmania

Objectives: • to evaluate the likely regional on-farm impacts of climate change and variability• to identify the costs and benefits of regional on-farm climate change adaptation options and barriers to adoption• to increase knowledge and awareness of climate change impacts and adaptation options

Background

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Region Enterprise focus Mean annual rainfall (mm)

Sassafras (300-800 ha) Vegetable crops > 800

Cressy (Longford workshop , 500-2700 ha)

Broadacre crops/

Intensive grazing

600-800

Central Midlands(Oatlands workshop, 400-7400 ha)

Extensive grazing/

Broadacre crops

450-600

Upper Derwent Valley (Hamilton workshop, 250-2400 ha)

Extensive grazing/

Broadacre crops

450-600

Coal Valley (Richmond workshop, 43-1700 ha)

Broadacre crops/Ex+Intensive grazing

450-600

Crops Sassafras CressyCentral

MidlandsUpper

Derwent Coal ValleyBarley x x x x xWheat x x x x xOats x x x xCanola x x xPoppies x x x x xPeas x x xPotatoes x x xBeans x xPyrethrum x xTriticale xForage Brassica x xOnions xCauliflower x x (seed)Broccoli xCarrots xCabbage x (seed) x (seed)Cherries xFennel xBoronia xLavender x

Projected % change in annual and seasonal rainfall 1961-1990 to 2071-2100, mean of downscaled-GCMs, A2 emissions scenario

Winter

Autumn

Spring

Annual

Summer

Information supplied by Greg Holz ACE CRC

climatefutures@acecrc.org.au

www.acecrc.org.au

Greg Holz speaking - Thurs pm

Projected number of days less than 2°C year-1 (i and ii) 1961-1990 (left) and 2071-2100 (right), mean of downscaled-GCMs, A2 emissions scenario

Projected decrease in number of frosts during the growing season

Q1) How do you currently manage seasonal climatic variability?

Crops Pastures Whole farm

Wet seasons

Mitigate against water-logging (2/5) e.g. raised beds, underground drainage

Flexible crop rotations (2/5)

Wet seasons

Move stock to dry land (2/5)

On and off farm income sources (2/5)

Dry seasons

Irrigation from a variety of sources (3/5)

Fodder crops/dual purpose crops (3/5)

Dry Seasons

Destock (4/5)

Change livestock mix (e.g. from cattle to sheep) (3/5)

Irrigate pastures (2/5)

Drought tolerant pastures (1/5)

Q2) Based on future trends, how might you respond differently in the future?

Crops Pastures Whole farm

New cultivars (3/5)

Changes to sowing/harvesting times (4/5)

Change crops (2/5)

New technology (2/5)

Change to stock management e.g. lambing times (3/5)

Plant fodder crops (2/5)

No real change to current activities (4/5)

Increase diversification on farm (2/5)

Cost of production/land price will determine what is done (2/5)

Rural Livelihoods Analysis (Nelson et al. 2010a,b)

Capital ExamplesHuman skills, health and educationSocial family, community and other social networks and

servicesNatural productivity of land, water and biological resourcesPhysical infrastructure, equipment and breeding resourcesFinancial access to income, savings and credit

0 1 2 3 4 5

Low HighMedium

Not supporting effective transformation

Supporting effective transformation

Could be improved

High priority for actionDoes not need

immediate actionNeeds monitoring, may

need some action

Constraining EnablingConstraining Enabling

0

1

2

3

4

5Human

Social

NaturalPhysical

Financial

South

North

Adaptive capacity North• Medium sized mixed farming system• Generally positive – can adapt to CC• Lots of opportunities

– Irrigation, proximity to urban areas, off-farm income, social networks, access to markets and processing plants

• Some constraints:– Limited by access to information, cost of land,

young farmers and terms of trade

South• Small-medium mixed farming system• Lost confidence in farming• Few opportunities:

– Reduced frost risk

• Lots of constraints:– Lack of funds to implement change,

unsupported, “not on a level playing field”, demise of rural communities, lack of processing plants, lack of irrigation in some areas

Northern Midlands document

Capital Main factors Adaptive capacity workshops Regional workshops/Barriers to adaptation

HumanN – 2S – 1.8

Age of farmers ConstrainingMean age of farmers is increasing, little to attract young people to farming and expensive to buy in to farming

Labour costs and availability/Age of farmers (4/5)The mindset and perceived risk of individual farmers (3/5)

SocialN – 3.3S – 1.

Importance placed on availability of services

Big difference in the role of community and sense of isolation felt. Rely on family for support but not there if children are away at school.

Government legislation (4/5)Lack of research and extension (3/5)

NaturalN – 3.3S – 3.3

ClimateWater availability

EnablingGood in N, poor in S – cost of irrigation water prohibitive

PhysicalN – 3.4S – 2.6

Plant breedingNiche markets

Generally enabling apart from water infrastructure in South

Water availability (2/5)

FinancialN – 2.2S – 1.3

Cost of productionTerms of trade

Constraining for both regionsLand prices are of concern in the N while access to credit is of concern in the S

Cost of production/return on investment (4/5)Market demand (3/5)Land use change (2/5)

Incremental vs. transformative change

Change enterprise mix

Change grazing and pasture management

Reduce tillage

Trial low input systems

Invest in irrigation Direct marketing of niche products

Adaptation in the future

State and Federal policy has addressed constraints relating to physical capital (irrigation infrastructure), but issues around human, financial, and social capital, including the desire to stay on the land, will ultimately determine what adaptation strategies are adopted.

Financial concerns, including costs of production and land use change are more important (urgent) in driving on-farm adaptation than climate change.

The profitability of farming needs to be addressed through the market place to enable farmers to diversify and more importantly to attract young people to farming.

Extension services are lacking, particularly given perceived high risk adaptation strategies. Farmers will need external support to help reduce the ‘risk’ of changing enterprise mix.

What is the role of LGA’s, CMA’s, State and Federal Government in assisting farmers to continue to produce food and fibre?

Acknowledgements

Many thanks to the collaborating farmers and the farmer network conveners: Geoff Dean TIAR/SFS; Sophie Folder Petra Novak, Rebecca Clarkeson (Serve-Ag); Steven Joyce (NRM South-Upper Derwent Landacre Group); and Adrian James and James McKee (NRM North), for their roles in contributing to the workshops.

Thanks also to the national project leader Steven Crimp (CSIRO)