0WEL COME

Effect of Climate Change Parameters on Crop

Duration and Productivity

SANJU, H.R.PALB 1173

o Introduction • Climate change• Parameters of climate change

o Climate change parameters on crop durationo Climate change parameters on crop productivity

o Conclusiono Future line of work

Sequence of presentation

4

“Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)”

“Climate change refers to general shifts in climate, including temperature, precipitation, winds, and other Factors”

CLIMATE CHANGE…

Two main causes for climate change

NaturalAnthropogenic

• Natural fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation

• Volcanic eruptions

• Short term cycles viz. ENSO

•Burning of fossil fuel emits CO2

• Methane emission from agriculture, land fills and

industry

•Nitrous oxide emission from agriculture and industrial

sector

•Release of CO2 due change in land use and land cover.

Fig 1 : Major contribution of greenhouse gases to climatic change over next 100 years based on 1990 global emission.

CO2

CH4

CFC

N2O

65%CO217%

CH4

12%CFC

8%N2O

Aggarwal, et. al., (1993)

PARAMETERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

1.High CO2 in the atmosphere

2. Increase in Temperature

Maximum and minimum temperature

3.Variation in rainfall pattern

No. of rainy days/ shift in season

Amount and distribution

4.Solar radiation

Day length

5.Drought

6.Floods

Major Parameters of Climate change

Fig 2: Estimates of Future Levels of CO2

Year CO2, ppm

2000 369

2010-2015 388-398

2050/2060 463-623

2100 478-1099

IPCC, 2001

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1950 1990 2025 2050

CO2 in ppm

Fig 3: Effect of rise in CO2 on C3 & C4 plants

• Photosynthesis increase (60-80%)• Stomatal conductance decreases • Transpiration reduces• WUE increasers (70%)

Crop Leaf photosynthesis

Grain yield Stomatal conductance

Per cent change

Maize 3 4 -34

Rice 36 30 -31

Wheat 35 31 -38

Sorghum 9 0.8 -37

Cotton 33 44 -36

Groundnut 27 30 -28

Soybean 35 34 -40

USDA Hatfield et al.,2011

Table 1: Response of plant physiological variables to doubling of CO2

(660 ppm) concentrations

CO2 concentration (ppm)

Leaves dry wt

(g/plant)

No. of seeds

Seeds /plant

Seed wt (g/plant

)

280 3.30 27.7 55.1 9.25

330 5.09 36.3 84.3 14.86

660 5.43 50.2 106.7 17.85

USDA Allen et al., 1991

Table 2: Effect of CO2 levels on soybean growth

Crops

Pod/ seed yield (g/plant)

% yield increase 350 µ mol mol-1 700 µ mol mol-1

Groundnut (C3) 9.06 13.29 46.7

Sorghum (C4) 25.78 27.37 6.2

U.K. Clifford et al., 1993

Table 3: Yield of groundnut and sorghum grown in controlled environment (glass house) at ambient and enriched carbon dioxide

levels.

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ph

oto

syn

the

sis

(u

mo

l/m

2 /s)

Pusa Basmati-1 Pusa 677 Pusa Basmati-1 Pusa 677

Ambient Elevated

FACE OTC

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Gra

in y

ield

(g

/m2)

Pusa Basmati-1 Pusa 677 Pusa Basmati-1 Pusa 677

Ambient Elevated

Fig.4 :Effect of elevated CO2 on the grain yield and Photosynthesis in rice cultivars under FACE and OTC

Aggarwal et al., 2002

RESPONSE OF RICE PLANT TO ELEVATED CO2

Aggarwal, et al., 2002

(IPCC 2007)

Fig 5 : changes in temperature, sea level and snow cover due to climate change from 1850-2000

Fig 6: Temperature change from 1990-2100

IPCC., 2012

Increase average global surface temperature 1.8-4.0oC

Table 4: Expected changes in temperature and rainfall in India

Year Season Increase in temperature (0C)

Change in rainfall (%)

Lowest Highest Lowest Highest

2020s Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.36Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10

2050s Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.82Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52

2080s Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.50Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18

Lal et al., 2001

States Temperature (oC)

Rainfall

MADHYA PRADESH varying trends Declining trend

GUJARATH 0.2-0.5 Varying trends

CHATTISGARH 1.0 Declining trends

MAHARASTHRA 1.0 More rains in May, June and July

KARNATAKA 0.5 Shift in peak rainfall month from September to October. Lower rainfall in July & Higher in August.

ORISSA 1.0 Frequent and intense cyclones and delayed monsoon

ANDHRA PRADESH 1.0 Intense rainfall away from coasts

KERALA 0.8 Decline in June-July, marginal increase in August-September

TAMIL NADU 1.0-1.5 Declining trend

Anon., 2008

Table 5: Temperature and rainfall trends over different states of India

Fig 7 : Rainfall shift in Eastern dry zone of Karnataka

Karnataka Rajegowda et al., 2008

AUGUST 27, 2008Anantapur district in Andhra Pradesh received 110 mm rain fall in a single day ( average rainfall in entire August is 89 mm) and destroyed entire groundnut.

June 28, 2008 Mahasamund district in Chattisgarh, received 183 mm rainfall that day was more than the 150.5 mm rainfall usually received in the month of June and it was followed by 16 days dry spell.

July 26, 2005 a record breaking 944 mm rainfall flooded Mumbai and ruined farmers in adjoining Raigarh and Ratnagiri districts. Mumbai usually gets 600 mm rain over June and July. Paddy and Sugarcane on 90 thousand ha were destroyed.

September 2, 2006 Barmer district of Rajasthan received 577 mm of rains over 3 days. This was more than twice the average rainfall in a year. Farmers lost crops worth Rs. 1, 300 Crores and 75, 000 farm animals.

RAIN SHOCKED INDIAN FARMERS

Crops

Minimum (o C) Maximum(o C) Optimum (o C)

wheat 3-4.5 30-32 25

Barley 3-4.5 38-40 20

Oat 4-5 30 25

Maize 8-10 40-44 32-35

Sorghum 8-10 40 32-35

Rice 10-12 36-38 30-32

Tobacco 13-14 35 28

Table 6 : Cardinal temperature points for different crops

Effect on climate change on

crop duration and productivity

Table 7: Wheat crop response to variations in temperature

Temp Change(ºC)

Yield and yield attributes

Crop duration (Days)

MaximumLAI

GrainsPer ear

Grain yield (q/ha)

Strawyield (t/ha)

+2.0 %DEVIATION

-7.7 -23.9 -4.1 -12.2 -21.6

+1.5 -5.6 -17.6 -3.0 -7.2 -17.7

+1.0 -3.5 -12.1 -0.3 -4.9 -11.5

+0.5 -0.7 -6.8 -0.2 -0.2 -6.0

Normal 143 3.8 24.12 50.43 8.83

-0.5 +3.5 +16.6 -1.0 +5.9 +10.9

-1.0 +6.3 +23.4 -1.7 +9.4 +15.2

-1.5 +7.7 +26.3 -0.4 +7.0 +20.5

-2.0 +11.2 +37.8 -1.7 +7.7 +27.1

Punjab Mavi et al. 1993

Table 8 : Change in temperature effect on Growing degree days in wheat

Turkey Anon., 2000

Table 9 : Change in maturity date under two climatic change scenarios ( +1ºC and +2ºC)

Turkey Anon., 2000

Fig 8 : Date of maturity and the expected wheat yields under two climatic change

scenarios ( +1ºC and +2ºC)

Turkey Anon., 2000

IARI, New Delhi Sinha and Swaminathan, 1991

Fig.9 : Effect of mean temperature on duration and yield of rice variety IR 36 at different locations

Impact of climate change on maize duration and

yield

T1 No climate change

T2 Uniform increase in maximum temperature alone by 10 C

T3 Uniform increase in minimum temperature alone by 10 C

T4 Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperature by 10 C

T5 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm

T6 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm + Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperature by 10 C

T7 Increase in precipitation by 10%

T8 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm + Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperature by 10 C + Increase in precipitation by 10%

T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran., 2008

Fig 10: Impact of Climate change on duration of

Maize T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran.,2008

Good year- 553.2mm RainfallBad year - 117.7mm RainfallNormal year – 352.8 mm rainfall

Table 10 :Effect of climate change on maize

yield

Climate change scenario

GOOD YEAR BAD YEAR NORMAL YEAR

Maize yield

%deviation

Maize yield

%deviation

Maize yield

%deviation

T1 2132 0 267 0 601 0

T2 2265 6.2 236 -11.7 581 -3.2

T3 2189 2.7 290 8.6 673 12.1

T4 2192 2.8 254 -5.6 652 8.5

T5 2144 0.6 275 2.9 618 2.9

T6 2215 3.9 268 0.5 671 11.7

T7 2367 11.0 376 40.5 1026 70.8

T8 2528 18.6 359 34.3 1143 90.3T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran., 2008

LOCATION Year Duration Days to anthesis

Economic yield kg/ha

COIMBATORE 2000 116 94 4876

2020 113 92 4403

2050 110 90 3652

2080 109 90 3361

MADHURAI 2000 114 92 5117

2020 111 89 4752

2050 107 87 4305

2080 106 86 3386

SALEM 2000 116 93 4592

2020 112 92 3850

2050 111 90 2997

2080 108 88 2764

Table 11: Impact of climate change on duration, days to anthesis and economic yield of Rice in different locations

T.N. Srivani, et.al.,2007

Table 12: Rice crop response to variations in temperature

Temp Change(ºC)

%DEVIATION

Yield and yield attributes

Crop duration (Days)

MaximumLAI

GrainsPer ear

Grain yield (q/ha)

Strawyield (t/ha)

+2.0 -3.3 -3.9 -12.4 -8.4 -6.4

+1.5 -2.6 -3.9 -8.3 -8.2 -1.7

+1.0 -2.0 -2.4 -6.1 -4.9 -1.2

+0.5 -1.3 -1.1 -2.4 -3.2 -0.7

Normal 153 6.2 494 61.4 4.94

-0.5 0.0 +0.2 +1.4 +3.0 +4.2

-1.0 +1.3 +0.5 +3.4 +2.7 +2.0

-1.5 +2.0 +1.1 +3.9 +4.6 +3.5

-2.0 +13.1 +13.6 +12.6 +21.7 +15.1 Ludiyana Mathauda et al., 2000

Fig. 11: Trends in maximum and minimum temperatures and radiation from 1979 to 2003

Philippines Peng et al ., 2006

Fig.12 : The relationship between rice yield attributed and growing season mean maximum temperature, minimum temperature

Philippines Peng et al ., 2006

Location year Grain yield (g/m2)

Percentage of ripened grain (%)

1000grain Dry

weight

Temperature during GFP

( 0 C)

Masture 1999 599.2 77.9 19.1 26.9

MastureH 1999 411.5 55.4 18.5 28.1

Masture 2000 591.2 83.4 20.1 27.8

MastureH 2000 427.6 60.7 19.0 29.3

Akana 1999 668.9 87.5 20.6 23.1

Takatuki 2000 574.3 60.7 20.4 26.6

LSD (0.05)

75.5 14.1 0.9

Table 13: Grain yield, yield components of rice cultivar Koshikari and mean temperature during the grain-filling in different location

Japan Kobata and Uemuki, 2004

Crops Temperature rise 1oC 2 oC 3oC

per cent reduction in yield

Wheat 8.1 18.7 25.7

Rice 5.4 7.4 25.1

Maize 10.4 14.6 21.4

Groundnut 8.7 23.2 36.2

Ludiyana Hundal and Kaur, 1996

Table 14: Effect of increased temperature on productivity of crops in Punjab

Table 15 : Response of simulated grain yield of irrigated wheat to changes in temperature and CO2 in north India. (Aggarwal, et al., 2002).

Fig 13 :Impact of climate change on wheat yield in north India

• Grain yields of wheat decrease by 17% with a 2o C increase in temperature.

• Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm nullify the effect of 2o C rise in temperature.

Aggarwarl, et al., 2002

350

450

550

650

750

0 1 2 3 4 5

Increase in temperature, CCO

2, p

pm

20%

10% 0%-10% -20% -30%

-40%

2070

2010

Increase in temperature (o C)

Incre

ase in

CO

2 (p

pm

)

Parameter Control

UV-B at 0.56 Wm-2

Plant height (cm) 71 48

Pod number/plant 120 85

Yield /plant (g) 24 19

Germany Giller, 1991

Table 16: UV- B radiations on soybean plant growth and yield

Table 17: Effect of high temperature on productivity of different crops

Wheat yield q/ha

Season 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

productivity 17.38 14.02 13.67 20.12

% decrease over 2001-02

- -19.3 -21.3 +10.01

Rapeseed and Mustard yield kg/ha

productivity 884 540 360 470

% decrease over 2001-02

- -38.9 -59.3 -8.24

H.P Rajendra prasad and Ranbir Rana ., 2006

Table 18: Temperature during March at Dhaulakuan and Akrot

>28 >30 >32 05

1015202530

200220032004

>28 >30 >3205

101520253035

200220032004

days

Temperature (ºC) Temperature (ºC)

H.P Rajendra prasad and Ranbir Rana ., 2006

Solar radiation (MJ m-

2 day-1)Simulated grain yield

kg/ha% change from base

yield (3837 kg/ha)

3 5387 40

2 5111 33

1 4523 18

-1 3156 -18

-2 2503 -35

-3 1903 -50

Anand, Gujarat Pandey et al., 2007

Table 19 : Simulated wheat yield due to effect of solar radiation

Fig: Cumulative Effect of Temperature and Solar Radiation on Wheat Yield

Pakisthan Mukhta and Fayyaz-ul (2011)

Table 20: Effect of temperature during active tillering period on tiller production

Planting dates

Daily means of temperature

(ºC)

Daily mean Sunshine hours

Tiller production m-2

V1 V2 V3

13-07-1994 27.1 3.7 658 600 57827-07-1994 25.8 4.3 533 484 48013-08-1994 25.8 3.6 529 489 48411-01-1995 24.1 10.4 471 453 48925-01-1995 26.6 10.8 582 524 50704-02-1995 27.4 10.4 658 609 57310-07-1995 26.5 5.0 560 533 55625-07-1995 27.4 6.0 689 649 55012-08-1995 26.1 4.0 578 529 529

Hyderabad Lalitha et.al., 1999

Change in CO2 level , temp (ºC) and Solar radiation (MJ m-2 day-1)

Simulated grain yield kg/ha

% change from base yield (3837 kg/ha)

440 ppm

3 4369 14

2 4699 22

1 4726 23

-1 4550 19

-2 4255 11

-3 3776 -2

660 ppm

3 5781 51

2 6332 65

1 6541 70

-1 6229 62

-2 5950 55

-3 5537 42

Table 21: Simulated wheat yield due interaction effect of temperature, solar radiation and CO2 concentration

Anand, Gujarat Pandey et al., 2007

Table 22 : Change in Total Crop Duration due to Rise in Temperature

IARI Tripathy, et.al.,2010

Figure .14 : Yield Reduction in Different Cereal Crops with Temperature Rise

IARI Tripathy, et.al.,2010

IARI Tripathy et al.,2010

Fig. 15 . Changes in Grain Yield of Different Cereal Crops to Temperature Changes and Doubled Atmospheric CO2Conditions

Table 23: Interactive effects of CO2 and temperature on yield of maize and wheat

crop CO 2 ppm

Yield kg/ha

Existing Existing +3 ºC

% Deviation (+3 ºC)

Maize 350 3700 2337 -36.8

700 4314 3713 -13.8

wheat 350 3916 3339 -14.7

700 6131 5206 -15.08

Punjab kaur et al., 2012

Fig 16: Annual rainfall of Karnataka state and

Tumkur district. Panduranga et al., 2006Bangalore

Fig 17 : Productivity of various crops during the

period 1955 to 2000 Panduranga et al., 2006Bangalore

Table 24 : Impact of drought on productivity of pearl millet

Station Pearl millet yield in kg ha-1

% Decrease in yieldGood monsoon

year (1983)Mean of 3 drought years 1984-1987

Barmer 285 65 77Jalore 468 105 77Jodhpur 337 79 77Nagpur 721 265 63Pali 553 248 55

Jodhpur Singh et al., 1999

• Rise in CO2 level from 280-660 ppm has increased the grain yield (50-70 g m-

2) of rice and seed weight (17.85 g plant-1) of soybean and about 46.7 per cent pod yield of groundnut.

• Increase in temperature 2.0 0C over normal decreases the Crop duration

(3 & 7.7days), Grain yield (8.5& 12.2 q ha-1) in case of rice and wheat, respectively and also increase in solar radiation from 1-3 MJ m-2 day-1

resulted in increased yield of wheat from 18-40 %.

• Both maximum and minimum temperature has negative impact on yield , Grain yield of rice declined by 10% for every 1ºC increase in minimum temperature and decrease in wheat grain yield (21.3%), rapeseed pod yield (59.3%) at maximum temperature in march.

• Increase in the yield of maize and wheat due to interaction effect of temperature & CO2 was observed, but beneficial only at one unit increase in temperature and radiation at all levels of CO2.

Conclusions

• Research needs to find out appropriate management practices to sustain the present level yield in changed climate conditions.

• Evolving efficient and soil management practices in addition to identification or breeding of crops and varieties with higher water use efficiency, dry matter conversion ratio, positive response to temperature extremes and elevated CO2 .

Future line of work

Thank you