Smallholder agriculture & climate change
-
Upload
decision-and-policy-analysis-program -
Category
Lifestyle
-
view
2.016 -
download
2
description
Transcript of Smallholder agriculture & climate change
smallholder agriculture and climate change
P Läderach, A Eitzinger, A BenedikterOxfam GB, London, January 2011
• Objectives• Methodology• Preliminary results
i. Guatemalaii. Bogotáiii. Jamaica
• Carbon Footprint online platform• A Framework to adapt• What’s next?• CCAFS
Outline
“Rain has become very irregularly, this year we suffered drought followed by heavy rains during Broccoli season”Two small-farmers & brothers, Guatemala, Patzún, October, 2010
Objectives Perceptions
Beneficiaries (case studies)– Guatemala frozen vegetable value chain– Bogotá metropolitan area small-scale farmers related food security– Jamaica fresh vegetable market for the hotel industry
Objectives Adaptation by agricultural communities to climate change through participatory & supply chain inclusive management
Objectives
• Quantify the exposure of crops (using crop prediction models)
•Derive indicators to describe climate change impacts on livelihood(participatory & gender sensitive diagnostic)
• Develop potential response pathways for supply chain actors (using interviews with industry
partners) & estimate the carbon food print for identifying response pathways (develop a online carbon footprint platform)
• Road map how adaptationstrategies can be used(deriving a framework)
Objectives Vulnerability to climate change (IPCC 2001)
VulnerabilityDegree of
susceptibility and
incapability ofa system to
confrontadverse effects
of climateChange
(IPCC 2001)
ExposureDegree to which a system is
exposed to significant variationin climate
SensitivityDegree to which a system is
positively or negatively affectedby climate related stimulus
Adaptive capacityThe ability of a system to adapt
to climate change
Methodology Overall Approach
Global Climate Model (GCM) Outputs
Production and Quality Data
Socio Economic Information
Statistical Downscaling of
Climate Information
Crop Suitability and Niche Modeling
Vulnerability Analyses
Future Climatesat Local scale
Yield and Quality Impacts
Alternative Livelihood Strategies
EXPOSURE
SENSITIVITYADAPTIVE CAPACITY
Inputs Process Output
Methodology Crop prediction models
What is the suitability of a crop to the climate?
Suitability to future climate(2050) – Current suitability = Change in suitability
Current SuitabilityFuture Suitability 2050Change in Suitability to Future Climate (2050)
Temperature
Prec
ipita
tion
Calibration with optimal points• Samples (GPS points)• Altitude range• Current Production Areas• Soil types
CalibratedTemperature and
PrecipitaciónRanges!
Ecocrop Database (FAO)(Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN)
Ranges: Temperature and precipitation
WorldClim Climate Data http://worldclim.orgMore than 47,000 stations worldwide
Methodology DFID Livelihood Framework, Indicators on 5 Assets
Human
• Access to formal and informal education
• Level of knowledge of farming system management.
• Health and feeding
Social
• Organization• Take decisions /
Work distribution
• Access routes• Transport of
products• Quality of
accommodation
Physical
Natural
• Access and availability of water
• Contamination• Conservation• Soil conditions and
fertility
Financial
• Credit access• Variability of production• Price variability• Variability in annual revenue and income
diversification• Access to markets• Access to alternative technology
See presentation A130 by Celi et al.
Preliminary results Guatemala’s Frozen Vegetable Value-chain
Actually cultivated vegetables areas
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionClimate change predictions for 2050
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.2 °C
The maximum annual temperature will rise 2.8°C
The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.8°C
By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 25 millimeters.
“It will be hotter year-round and the rains will start later and be heavier in late winter.”
Extracted Climate Data for Vegetables in Chimaltenango, Sololá
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionExposure by changing crop suitability
Exposure … and limited land alternatives
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionExposure by changing crop suitability
Exposure … and limited land alternatives
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionDifferent Livelihood profiles
ADAM SUMAR
Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionStrategies Characterized from supply chain actors
Look for funds from organizations (like IFAD, Oxfam, … )for irrigation systems, inputs, trainings, infrastructure
• Installation of irrigation (Drill wells, rainwater harvesting)
• Financing through credit (Inputs or capital for producers, infrastructure)
• Educate producers (Reforestation, soil conservation, crop rotation, waste classification)
• Reforestation• Crop rotation• Irrigation
ALANEL, ADICOSO, ASDIC
Buen Sembrador
SUMAR, ADAM
Prod
ucer
s, c
oope
rativ
esCh
ain
acto
rs
Preliminary results Bogota’s food security
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionClimate change predictions for 2050
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C
The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C
The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C
By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters.
“It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”
Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionExposure by changing crop suitability of Potato
Potato
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionExposure by changing crop suitability of cassava
Cassava
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionDifferent Livelihood profilesSensitivity & Adaptive Capacity
Selling to consumers (MC) Selling to intermediary Selling to both
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionStrategies Characterized from supply chain actors
3 most important strategies, mentioned by different groups:
1. Information, training and awareness(about the problem and causes)
2. Political incidence (local a global)
3. Sustainable/ecological production
Preliminary results Jamaica’s hotel industry supplier
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionClimate change predictions for 2050
Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007)
By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 1.7 °C
The maximum annual temperature will rise 2°C
The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.5°C
By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 65 millimeters.
“It will be hotter year-round and there will be less precipitation all over the year.”
Extracted Climate Data for Jamaica
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionExposure by changing crop suitability
Exposure … and limited land alternatives
Bamboo
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionExposure by changing crop suitability
Exposure … and limited land alternatives
Bamboo
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionSensitivity & Adaptive CapacityVulnerability
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionStrategies Characterized from supply chain actors
3 most important mentioned by different groups:
1. Education, training, capacity building, information sharing, research
2. Legislation & government policies, marketing, financing
3. Infrastructure development, organization, sustainable implementation
1. Analysis of food supply chains and business nature2. Vulnerability assessment of the supply chains3. Analysis of people, behavioural traits and institutionalised patterns4. Derivation of chain inclusive adaptation strategies
CHAININCLUSIV
EADAPTATI
ON STRATEGI
ES
VULNERABILITY People
Tools
Institutions
Adaptive Capacity
Importance
Resilience
Business
Exposure
Sensitivity
By means of:•Quantitative fieldwork at farm level•Geographic crop modelling•Participative workshops•Expert interviews with key supply chain actors•Fieldwork observations
Framework Chain Inclusive Adaptation to GCC Impacts
PURPOSE:-Characterisation: Understand the “nature of business”.-Reasons for adaptation: Check importance of FSC.-Evaluation of resilience: Will the FSC prevail against GCC impacts?
• Assess main objectives. Estimate importance of SCs for small farmers and other stakeholders Supply Chain Business Crops Objective Importance
GTM1 Selling variety of vegetables on different markets via support from local associations
Variety (10+) of crops. Deliver considerable quality at win-win prices
For small-farmers high, for other stakeholders substitutable
GTM2 Exportation of determined frozen vegetables via intermediary
Broccoli, Peas, Cauliflower.
Deliver defined amount of defined quality at low price
For smallholders high as they grew dependent on the system. Highly substitutable for wholesaler.
HOW TO ASSESS: -Keep it simple and general. Define supply chains via products and customers.-Compare FSCs among each other where possible.
Supply Chain
Fragile parts Resilient parts Overall resilience
Structures and Assets
Dynamics and
Organization
Structures and Assets
Dynamics and
Organization
GTM 1 Bad general infrastructure
Logistics stumbling sometimes
Farmers own land
NGOs build capacities.
Medium
• Assess main structures and dynamics and identify fragile and resilient parts for each SC
Framework Role and Nature of Food Supply Chains (FSCs)
Partial assessment of vulnerabilityAIMS AT:- Capture the elements of the problem: Exposure, affection, means to respond to GCC stresses.- Allocation of problem. Where is the least/highest need for adaptation?
•Exposure is found along a FSC when crops at farm level are exposed to GCC.HOW TO ASSESS: CROP SUITABILITY CHANGE
•Sensitivity is found along a FSC whenever producers are sensitive AND when up-the-road actors areaffected by producer level sensitivity.
HOW TO ASSESS:- affection of 5 livelihood assets at farm level, - crop diversification ,- FSC dependence on small-farmers
•Adaptive capacity has various components:
HOW TO ASSESS:- identify fixed patterns or entities enabling or inhibiting the capacity to respond- estimate assets -available and useful for adaptation- at non-farm level through FSC analysis.
Supply Chain Asset related capacities Institutional capacities Overall degree of crop diversification
FSC OVERALLADAPTIVE CAPACITYFarm level Non-farm level
GTM1 2,6high Medium Medium High ??
GTM2 1,8medium High Low Medium ??
COL1 3high Low High (will to change) Medium-high MEDIUM-HIGH
COL2 2medium High Medium (cohesion, but conservatism) High MEDIUM-HIGH
COL3 2,8high Medium High (will to change; higher professionalism) High HIGH
Supply Chain
Sensitivity at farm level
Downstream dependenceon farmers
Overall degree of crop diversification
FSC OVERALL SENSITIVITY
GTM1 1,8medium Medium-high Medium Medium
GTM2 2,6high Low Low Medium-high
Framework Vulnerability of Food Supply Chains (1)
Analyse overall results for vulnerabilityPURPOSE:
- Overview of situation: Identifying cause of vulnerability.- Comparison: Location and characterization of hot spots.
SUPPLY CHAIN LEVEL FARM LEVEL
-100-50050100
GTM1
GTM2
COL1
COL2JAM
COL3
Mean suitability changeM
ean
sens
itivi
ty to
GCC
-100-50050100
GTM1
GTM2
COL1
COL2JAM
COL3
Mean suitability change
Mea
n se
nsiti
vity
to G
CC
HOW TO ANALYSE:-Focus on cases in upper right corner (orange-red) Highest need for adaptation.-Relate to adaptive capacity hot spots-Go back to partial analysis and find specific reasons for vulnerability at the hot spots-Respond to differences between farm and FSC level-Derive implications and suggestions
Framework Vulnerability of Food Supply Chains (2)
Example:
Suggestions: Strengthen sense of farming as important job via workshops with key farmers and local governments. Public promotion of farming as essential socio-economic profession required…
People
• Identify and approach KEY PEOPLE and entities in the FSC:
• Power, relations, needs, capacities,…
BEHAVIOUR
•2 relevant types:• 1) Available (institutionalized) positive, i.e. enabling• 2) Institutionalized negative, i.e. inhibiting•
Mediation
•Key INSTITUTIONS AND TOOLS mediate and carry behaviour. Changing behaviour requires understanding and leveraging these media.
PURPOSE:-Understand people, entities and their reasons. -Revelation of action cycles and behavioral patterns enabling or obstructing adaptation.-Find the go-to points and derive incentives for change.
Type 1: Push means of mediation and focus on endurance.Type 2: Find incentives to change behaviour, drop out of action cycles. Impediments to change:
i. Uncertaintyii. Cognitive problems and differing perceptionsiii. Lack of motive or incentivesiv. Lack of capacity
FSC People BEHAVIOUR Type Mediation Enabled by: (Can be) Inhibited by:
COL1..
Small Farmers
Cultivate crops exclusively according to experience
2 Non-professionalism at farm level
Lack of up-to-date farming practices (Cognitive problems)
Formalization of supply chain and thus, profession
Mindset
Objectives
Obstacles and enablers
Environment
BEHAVIOUR
Framework Behaviour as Lever of Adaptation Strategies
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production
1. Information assessment2. Combine results, assess specific situation:
3. Derive feasible, generally held adaptation strategies• Focus on objective to define strategy. • Tailor strategies to (types of) crops/products and/or the reported overall situation.
Example: COL1
• Integrate strategies among each other. Compare to similar FSCs.4. Push implementation (incentives) and measure results.
• Measure in simple ways. Revise, draw conclusions for 5.5. Gradually adjust and deepen adaptation to specific regions.
• Local adjustments of strategies where necessary. • Increase internalisation of adaptation.
FEASIBLE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
Nature of business
Assets available
People and Institutions
Obstacles:Weak structures,
obstructing behaviour
Enablers: Resilience and
favorable behaviour
Specific problems and needs
Strategy 1 – Chain strengthening for higher resilience: AIM: Better markets, higher professionalism, formalized chain. What can be used? Strong NGO links to farmers. Awareness of the situation at farm level. Will to adapt.
What is needed? More, bigger marketplaces (physical). Legal acknowledgement of chain. Implementation Suggestions
Build force: Give incentives (e.g. logistic support) at farm level to associate and use NGOs to push public legalization of farmer´s markets.Build awareness: NGOs should focus on pushing positive image of agriculture at farm and consumer level to promote professionalism.
Obstacles Geographical dispersion of supply, centralized market. Paternalistic mindset.
Strategy 2: …
Importance of FSC +Overall Vulnerability
=Engagement in Adaptation
Identify and locateHot spots
Framework Adaptation Strategies for Food Supply Chains
Colaboration Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security CCAFS
What’s next? Grounding climate change
Site learn from site for 2030
By 2030, site will have current conditions of site
Site learn from site for 2030
Site learn …
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionCharacterized from supply chain actors Carbon Footprint online platform
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionCharacterized from supply chain actors Carbon Footprint online platform
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee productionCharacterized from supply chain actors Carbon Footprint online platform