Climate change, Agriculture and Biodiversitysawtee.org/presentations/S-BALA_RAVI.pdf · 2017. 10....
Transcript of Climate change, Agriculture and Biodiversitysawtee.org/presentations/S-BALA_RAVI.pdf · 2017. 10....
12/27/2010
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MSSRF
S. Bala Ravi
Advisor, MSSRF – Chennai
Regional Economic Integration, Climate Changeand Food Security Agenda for the Decade 2011-2020 Session: Regional cooperation on climate change
Climate change, Agriculture and
Biodiversity
MSSRF
Biodiversity, its distribution and
role in human well being
Biodiversity and Food Security
Climate change-the extent and
impact
Mitigation efforts and adapting
agriculture to Climate Change
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MSSRF
Biodiversity, its distribution and
role in human well being
Biodiversity and Food Security
Climate change-the extent and
impact
Mitigation efforts and adapting
agriculture to Climate Change
90% Sp. Occur in 10% of land around Equator The 12 Megadiverse Regions have 70 % total biodiversity.
MEGADIVERSE COUNTRIESUNEP Estimate (1995):
NUMBER OF SPECIES 17,50,000Protozoa : 4.6 %Bacteria : 0.2 % Animals Vertibrate : 3.0 % Invertibrates: 73.0 %
Fungi : 4.1 %Plants : 15.4 %
• Australia
• Brazil
• China
• Colombia
• Dem. Rep Congo
• Ecuador
• India
• Indonesia
• Madagaskar
• Malaysia
• Mexico
• Papua New Guinea
• Peru
• Philippines
• South Africa
• United States
• Venezuela
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17+17
Western Ghats & Sri Lanka
Himalaya© Conservation International
5170
15040
139220
15540
1804 10938
SOUTH ASIA
A Center of
Rich biodiversity
and
Agro-biodiversity
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MSSRF
GLOBAL LAND COVER
Forest-30.3%Agri-land-39.6%
Others-30.1%
GLOBAL LAND USE PATTERN
HUMAN POPULATION DENSITY LIVESTOCK POPULATION DENSITY
MSSRF
BIODIVERSITY DISTRIBUTIONFRESH WATER FISH DIVERSITY
90% Sp. occur in 10 % of land around Equator: 12 Mega-biodiversity Regionsaround Equator are home of 70 % of total bio-diversity- IUCN
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MSSRF
49 34
100
31
99
88
100
56
Figures indicate % of crop production accounted by non-native crops
62
DISTRIBUTION DENSITY OF PLANT GENETIC RESOURCES
Direct Consumptive Value
BIODIVERSITY
Food
Fodder
Fuel
Medicine
Clothing
Industrial Raw material
Ca. 80,000 edible spCa.900 Domesticated sp
Ca. 150 now cultivated
Mere 15 sp supply 90%of our food
About 25 000 sp of plants
Ca. 7500 in India
Cultural heritage
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Many species in each year
Now:
One Species in every 500-1000 Years
Before 200 Yrs :
RATE OF SPECIES LOSS
IUCN Red Alert
IUCN-2004 : 15,589 species are threatened
MSSRF
Biodiversity, its distribution and
role in human well being
Biodiversity and Food Security
Climate change-the extent and
impact
Mitigation efforts and adapting
agriculture to Climate Change
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Global Poverty-Biodiversity Map
455.8
139.8
313.2
90.7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2005 2015
IndiaRest of S.Asia
Population in Million
Source:FAO, 2010
Source: World Bank, 2009
388.4
1145.1
17.3
316.2
595.6
East Asia & Pacific
Sub-Saharan AfricaSouth Asia
M. East & N. AfricaL. America & Caribbean
Europe & Central Asia
Number of people living on < $1.25/day (millions)- 2005 World Bank (2009)
Figures in Million: Total 1373.5 MillionPrevious estimate of 984 million @ 1 $/day
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SOUTH ASIA
STATE OF FOOD
SECURITYShare of Global Population and
Cereal Production0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Cere
al P
roduction, M
ln t
23.4
23.6
23.8
24
24.2
24.4
24.6
24.8
25
S.A
sia
Popula
tion, as G
lobal %
World-All cereals, mln t
S.Asia-All cereals, mln t
% Population
Source: FAO, 2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2015
2030
2050
Pro
ductio
n, m
illio
n t
0
50
100
150
200
250
Popula
tion, m
illio
n p
ers
ons
World S.Asia Popln. Million
RICE PRODUCTION RISE & POPULATION INCREASE IN S.ASIA
Source: FAO, 2009
CLIMATE INDUCED
SET BACK TO
AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION
COULD BE
DISASTROUS
MSSRF
PLANT DIVERSITY AND AGRICULTURE
About 7000 species are estimated to be useful
About 150 Species
are largely used in
farming
About 60 % of calorie and protein supply to humans is provided by just three crops –Rice, Wheat & Maize
Plants Useful in
Agriculture
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MSSRF
Biodiversity, its distribution and
role in human well being
Biodiversity and Food Security
Climate change - The extent and
impact
Mitigation efforts and adapting
agriculture to Climate Change
Schematic Framework of Anthropogenic Drivers, impacts & Responses
Source: IPCC, 2007
Governance HealthLiteracy
Equity
Socio-Economic Development
Technology Population
Production & Socio CulturalConsumption PreferencesPattern
Trade
ECOSYSTEMS WATER RESOURCES
IMPACTS & VULNERABILITY
Food Settlements HumanSecurity & Society health
Emissions
Temperature PrecipitationChange Change
C L I M A T E C H A N G E
Sea level Rise Extreme Events
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Source: IPCC, 2007
POSSIBLE IPMACTS ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC PATHWAYS
WITH GLOBAL RISE IN MEAN TEMPERATURE
Major Predicted Differentiated Impacts in Agriculture & Water Sectors
Expected causation Expected Impacts
Agriculture, forestry & ecosystems Water resources
Most land areas, warmer and fewer cold days and nights,warmer and more frequent hot days &nights
Increased yields in colder regions;
Decreased yields in warmer regions; Increased insect outbreaks
Effects on water resources relying on snow melt;
Some water supplies affected
Warm spells/heat waves
Decreased yields in warmer regions due to heat stress, Increased danger wildfire
Increased water demand; water quality problems, e.g. algal blooms
Heavy precipitationevents. Frequency increases over most areas
Damage to crops; Heavy soil erosion-Degradation, Inability to cultivate land due to flooding and water logging
Quality of surface and ground water adversely affected; Water supply contaminated; Water scarcity reduced
Area affected by drought increases
Land degradation; Lower yields/crop damage & failure; Increased livestock deaths; Increased risk of wildfire
More widespread water stress
Intense tropical cyclone activity increases
Damage to crops; Wind throw (uprooting) of trees; Damage to coral reefs
Power outages causing disruption of public water supply
Increased incidence of extreme high sea level(excludes tsunamis)
Salinisation of irrigation water, estuaries and fresh water systems;Salinity adaptation for food prodn
Decreased fresh water availability due to saltwater intrusion;
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Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India & South Asia
At 1oC mean To rise, about 50% of current high potential,wheat production area may become heat-stressed. Thiswill shorten the growing season & reduce yield;
Yield loss for 1oC rise is predicted to be about 6 m t/year,(value $1.3 b), for 2oC about 24 m t and for 3oC about 43m t;
IFPRI predicts decrease in rain-fed wheat yields in S.Asia by about 44% at 2oC rise by 2050, withoutadaptation measures
Spurt in pests, diseases and weeds mal also cut downsignificant yield,
Grain quality and on nutrient-use efficiency may also beadversely affected
These decreases in yield far out weigh the potentiallybeneficial impacts of elevated CO2 levels on cropproductivity.
FAO Review Team, September 2009
MSSRF
Huge scarcity of Water may demand more water efficient crops for food production,
Prolonged & harsher drought & high floodingmay adversely affect crop production & soilhealth
Heavy soil degradation may turn many of thecurrent food production areas unfit foragriculture
Low lying areas including vast coastal & delta regions would turn saline
Hot growing season will be more common, leading to shortened crop season and decreased yield,
New pests and pathogens may breakout with To rise,
IMPACT OF CC ON AGRICULTURE
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MSSRF
Drastic reduction in livestock population
Good part of global biodiversity and crop genetic resources and ecosystems may degrade
Hunting of more wildlife for food would lead to their faster depletion.
Increased ocean heating and acidity would deplete marine fish production
Decrease in livestock production due to loss of grazing land
Low production of animal waste may make farming more fertilizer-dependant
Poultry may become less viable in most tropicalregions
IMPACT OF CC ON AGRICULTURE
India’s Current Wheat Production & Impact of Climate Change on Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950-5
1
1953-5
4
1956-5
7
1959-6
0
1962-6
3
1965-6
6
1968-6
9
1971-7
2
1974-7
5
1977-7
8
1980-8
1
1983-8
4
1986-8
7
1989-9
0
1992-9
3
1995-9
6
1998-9
9
2001-0
2
2004-0
5
2007-0
8
+3oC
+2oC
+1oC
Source: Min. of Agric, Govt of India, 2009
Start of Wheat
Revolution
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To increases could cause significant reductions in yields of rice — thestaple food for over half of the world's population The IRRI research found that rice yields had decreased by >10 % whilethe night temperatures rose by 1.1 º C in the dry season.
India’s Current Rice Production & Impact of Climate Change on Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1950
-51
1953
-54
1956
-57
1959
-60
1962
-63
1965
-66
1968
-69
1971
-72
1974
-75
1977
-78
1980
-81
1983
-84
1986
-87
1989
-90
1992
-93
1995
-96
1998
-99
2001
-02
2004
-05
2007
-08
RICE PRODUCTION IN INDIA, Million T
+1oC
Source: Min. of Agric, Govt of India, 2009
MSSRF
Biodiversity, its distribution and
role in human well being
Biodiversity and Food Security
Climate change - The extent and
impact
Mitigation efforts and adapting
Agriculture to Climate Change
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MSSRF
The IPCC predicts a To rise between 2oC and 6.4oC by 2100
Mitigation and adaptation are two major strategies to cope with the warming up to 4oC and above.
Some models on CC predicts – Major changes on the planet with 4oC rise.
Some other predict such chages will be there much earlier to 2050
Current global policies and strategies are based on a benchmark of 2o C rise in To
L’Aquila Summit - July 9, 2009 – Agreed to such benchmark
THE STRATEGY FOR ADDRESSING
CLIMATE CHANGE
MSSRF
Enhanced CO2 concentration may promote photosynthesisoffering advantage to crops with C4 photosynthetic pathway
But rise in To and drought may drastically bring down thecrop yield
CC adapted agriculture will require crops and varieties tolerant to higher To, flooding and longer drought, low water use, salinity and better biotic resistance, but still offering high yield
Crops like rice and sugarcane requiring more water maynot be preferable
Traditional crops and varieties, now being neglected may gain preference due to their adaptive value
Genetically engineering conferring superior adaptive traitsto crops may become more preferable.
NEW AGRICULTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
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Neglected and Underutilized Species (NUS) or The Lost Crops or The Crops of the Future
This group of crops offer high adaptive strength under the predicted CC conditions. They offer valuable genes to mitigate the CC.
More than 500 species
MSSRF
Few Examples of Neglected Underutilized Species
MSSRF
1. Finger millet
(Elucine coracana)
2. Little millet
(Panicum sumatrense)
3. Italian millet
(Setaria italica)
4. Kodo millet
(Paspalum scrobiculatum)
5. Barnyard millet (Echinochloa crusgalli
& colona)
6. Proso millet (Panicum miliaceum)
7. Grain amaranth (Amaranthus cruentus)
Many of these NUS also have high nutritional and nutraceutical value to address hidden hunger and better health
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MSSRF
Strategic Importance to Ex situ Gene Banks(Total NBPGR accessions, as on July 2008 : 1,63,155)
INDIA124 254210235
186118397
41388
33288
118138
41220
Cereals and PseudocerealsMilletsGrain LegumesOilseedsFibre CropsFruits, vegetables and spicesMedicinal & Aromatic Plants and NarcoticsDuplicate Safety SamplesOthers
The National Bureau of Plant Genetic Resources, New Delhi (ICAR) was
established in 1976Conservation as
seeds, cryo-preservation & in vitro repository.
DATABASE: Passport Information; Evaluation Data; DUS information; Information System for PGR Exchange; Global Plan of Action (GPA)
163155
24755
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
India Pakistan
PGR ACCESSIONS IN THE GENE BANK
MSSRF
Ex situ accessions maintained in National and
CGIAR Gene Banks
Source: FAO Report, 1998
Crop National
Collections
CGIAR Centres Total
Cereals 19,71,000 3,62,000 23,33,000
Food Legumes 7,58,000 1,32,000 8,90,000
Vegetables 4,81,000 NA 4,81,000
Forages 3,50,000 58,000 4,08,000
Fruit 2,79,000 NA 2,79,000
Root and Tubers 77,000 24,000 1,01,000
Oil Crops 95,000 NA 95,000
Banana 1,350 2,500 2,500
Others 13,89,000 21,500 14,10,500
Total 54,00,000 600,000 60,00,000
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MSSRF
CLIMATE CHANGE
PAST, PRESENT & FUTURE
CLIMATE CHANGE, SEEDS & FOOD
SECURITY
IMPACT OF IPR ON SEEDS &
FOOD SECURITY UNDER CC
MSSRF
CONCLUSIONSThe biodiversity, which is the basis of human life and
livelihood will be severely threatened and weakened;High biodiversity loss is on card by anthropogenic and
climate change drivers; Poverty and malnutrition in the present biodiversity rich
regions will be accenuatedGood part of the current productive agricultural land is
likely to become unfit for production.
Huge human migration, conflicts and culling are on card; South Asia is predicted to face brunt of these changes;
Food production may demand new varieties and new crops, which are better adapted to changing climate in terms of tolerance to high To , flooding, long drought, and epidemics of new pests and diseases;
National and international gene banks would assume moretactical importance in supplying PGR with adaptive traits
Increased opportunity and need for cooperation among countries to achieve collective food security
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MSSRF
THANKS