Climate variability, climate change and agriculture

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Climate variability, climate change and agriculture

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Climate variability, climate change and agriculture. Variability/Change?. Many African societies are well-adapted to the climate variability to which they are exposed - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Climate variability, climate change and agriculture

Climate variability, climate change and agriculture

Variability/Change?

• Many African societies are well-adapted to the climate variability to which they are exposed

• This variability is a good proxy for risks associated with future climate change, provided that the rate of change is sufficiently slow

(Mortimore, 1998, Brooks and Adger, 2003)

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Inter-annual variability - Zimbabwe 1980-2004

Source – Thomas & Matsikwa (2004)

Dealing with variability

• Identification of response strategies• Availability of Climate information• Historical data and response strategies • Community/indigenous knowledge• Forecasts of differing scale, skill, time

frames• Trials (and error)

DECISION FRAMEWORK ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY ANDCLIMATE CHANGE

TYPE OF DECISION

CLIMATE WEATHER

Long Term (10-50yrs) Medium Term (6-9mths) Short term (0-7days)

Decadal Changes Seasonal Forecasts Real Time → Week

Strategic

Tactical

Operational

• Crop planning • Reservoir

planning• Land management• Capital

investments

• Crop management• Water allocation• Input costs/planning

• Irrigation scheduling • Operations planning• Time management

Monthly forecast – 1-3 lead time

www. gfcsa.net

Precipitation Forecast

July 2006

% of Normal

Terminology

• Normal (237 +/- 10% = 210-260 mm) • Above Normal (above 260mm)• Below Normal (below 210mm)

• % of normal predicted: 80% = 168mm60% = 126mm40% = 84mm

• 40-60% of normal = 84-126mm• 100-120% of normal = 237-284mm

= 237 mm

203545

3763

5580

Seasonal forecasts?

• 3 month regional scale projections produced for 1,2,3 month lead times

OND 2006Precipitation forecast (%of Normal)

User responses - Reliability

1. Accuracy – will it be correct?

Probability/likely/confidence?

2. Skill – how often will a forecast be correct?

3. Scale – usefulness?

4. Consistency – will the forecast for a particular month change?

5. Will I be able to interpret it?

Not enough information!

• What will the ENSO event mean?– Delayed onset?– Dry months?– Hot temperatures?

• Which crops are more susceptible?• Worst and best case scenarios…• Typical responses in analogue years..

Seasonal rainfall…

MALMESBURY Rainfall total/ave wheat yield 2000-2004

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

mm

year

s

Rainfall

Yield x 100

Climate Change

• Longer term• More extremes• Changes in variability• Different coping skills?• Long term changes in pests, seasonal

lengths, water availability

Agricultural response

• Hedging opportunities and strategies• Diversification of crops/cultivars• Planting/fertilising strategy• Market/climate conditions/food prices• Weather forecast creativity….?

Farmer Issues on Adaptation to Climate Change

• Can farmers who are adapting prioritise beyond their own experience?– can they think out of the box?– or does some top-down advice have to be offered?

• Climate change is a special case within interacting drivers of change on the livelihoods of farmers

• Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change means a focus on vulnerability reduction– for this we need to seek multiple responses

PHYSICAL LIMITS

• Unsuitable soils• Lack of water

• Physically feasible but politically, socially or environmentally difficult

• Capacity of organisations• Capacity of individuals

After Arnell (2005)

FINANCIAL LIMITS

CAPACITY LIMITS

FEASIBILITY LIMITS

ADAPTATIONi.e. Adjustment to

altered circumstances

LIMITS TO ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE

Things to chew over..

• Can we make forecasts even more useful?

• Are tailored agricultural forecasts feasible?

• Do we have the required institutional capacity and skills?

• Will climate change projection information fit seamlessly into the dissemination networks that exist?

Thank You