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Climate Change and AgricultureBy

Allah Dad Khan allahdad52@gmail.com

Climate Change

“the greatest challenge facing the world at the beginning of the century.”

DavosWorld Economic Forum, Switzerland 2000

(www.weforum.org/)

“the most important long-term issue which we face as a global community”.

Jack Straw British Foreign secretaryDaily NEWS 15 May 2004)

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Climate Change: Some Definitions

Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place, with respect to the variables such as temperature, moisture, pressure etc.

Climate: Average weather. Statistical description of mean weather conditions over a period of several years, typically 2-3 decades.

Climate Change: Climate Change in excess of natural variability, attributable to human activity.

Climate Change Impacts and Adapting to Change

The changing climate impacts society and ecosystems in a broad variety of ways. For example climate change can increase or decrease rainfall, influence agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, or even impact our energy supply.

Climate-related impacts are occurring across regions of the country and across many sectors of our economy. Many state and local governments are already preparing for the impacts of climate change through "adaptation," which is planning for the changes that are expected to occur.

With rapid climate change, one-fourth of Earth’s species could be headed for extinction by 2050.

Around the globe, seasons are shifting, temperatures are climbing and sea levels are rising. And meanwhile, our planet must still supply us – and all living things – with air, water, food and safe places to live. If we don't act now, climate change will rapidly alter the lands and waters we all depend upon for survival, leaving our children and grandchildren with a very different world.

High Temp

Changing Landscape risk of drought and flood

Greenhouse Effect

• The Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role in maintaining a life-sustaining environment on the Earth;

• If there was no Greenhouse Effect, the average temperature of the Earth would have been -18oC (253°K) instead of the present 15oC;

• Human activity is enhancing the natural Greenhouse Effect by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc;

• It is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which is causing Global Warming and Climate Change.

Natural Climate Variability

Anthropogenic Inflcesuen since the Industrial revolution

CLIMATE CHANGE

Global Warming

Increased Precipitation & its Uneven Distribution

Melting of Glaciers & Snow

Sea level Rise

Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather Events

IMPACTS

Uncertainty in Water Availability

Decrease in CropYields

Newer perspective for sources of energy

Loss of Biodiversity

IncreasedHealth Risks

Spiraling Population

High pace of Industrialization

Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in

Industry & Transport

Deforestation for Agriculture and

Urbanization

Climate ChangeNatural + Anthropogenic

Global Response

– Climate Change is being addressed by several national research programs in all developed countries:

– A number of developing countries are also actively pursuing climate change research, e.g.

• In South Asia region, India has some 20 establishments and Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka are also engaged in CC research;

• China has a large number of establishments engaged in CC research.

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2001: Establishment of a multi-disciplinary effort for Climate Change research proposed by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Special Advisor to the Prime Minister;

May 2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) established with seed money provided by Ministry of Sc & Tech; GCISC now being supported by Planning Commission.

January 2005: Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat.

Dec., 2006 : GCISC attached to National Centre for Physics as an autonomous organization.

Oct., 2008: Planning Commission established a Task Force onClimate Change with GCISC as its Secretariat.

Climate Change Science Studies in Pakistan

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• 0.6 0 C increase in average global temperature during the last century (11 of last 12 years being warmest since 1850, with 1998 being on top.)

• Increase by 1.1-6.4 0 C projected over the 21st Century, with most likely range being 1.8-4.0 0 C ;

• Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world regions;

• Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase considerably;

• Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps, particularly the Arctic;

• Substantial rise in sea level.

Some Major Findings of IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007

Pakistan, like other countries in South Asia, is most vulnerable to Climate Change, because :

A large part of its economy is based on agriculture which is

climate sensitive;

It has low technological and scientific base and have limited

access to knowledge;

It has low capacity to adapt to changes resulting from CC;

It lacks financial and institutional capacity.

Vulnerability of Pakistan

Climates Changes Impacts

1. Climate change impact on Agriculture ( Crops)2. Climate Change impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)3. Climate change impact on Agriculture (fisheries )4. Climate Change impact on Water 5. Climate change impact on forest6. Climate change impact on Food security 7. Climate change impact on Environment8. Climate change impact on economics 9. Climate change impact on natural disaster 10. Climate change impact on women11. Climate change impact on conflicts and migration12. Climate change impact on humans13. Climate change impact on biodiversity14. Climate change impact on today 15. Climate change impact on energy 16. Climate change impact on global security 17. Climate change impact on global warming 18. Climate change impact on air 19. Climate change impact on fossil fuels.20. Climate change impact on society 21. Climate change impact on allergies

1. Climate Change impact on Agriculture ( Crops)

1.Agriculture has been and will continue to be significantly affected by changes in climate condition - quantity,

quality, cost of production

2.Existing adaption strategies can help offset many – butnot all –effects over the next 20-30 years; effects are very

likely to worsen significantly beyond then, especially if GHG emissions remain high

3.Improving the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change requires protection of the natural resource base (water & soil) and development of new strategies, tools, and practices

for adaptation

1. Climate Change impact on Agriculture ( Crops) contd

• Changes in temperature, amount of carbon dioxide (CO2), and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather could have significant impacts on crop yields.

• Warmer temperatures may make many crops grow more quickly, but warmer temperatures could also reduce yields. Crops tend to grow faster in warmer conditions.

• However, for some crops (such as grains), faster growth reduces the amount of time that seeds have to grow and mature. This can reduce yields (i.e., the amount of crop produced from a given amount of land).

• Corn: high nighttime temperatures, high temperatures during pollination, water stress

• Soybean: water stress, high temperatures

• Wheat and small grains: extreme events, frost during flowering, water stress

• Rice: temperature extremes during pollination, water management

• Cotton: high temperatures during boll fill

• Pasture and rangeland: water stress

• Fruit trees: chilling requirements not met, high temperatures during fruit development

• Specialty crops: water stress, high temperatures

1. Climate Change impact on Agriculture ( Crops) contd (Effects and Sensitivity Vary by Commodity)

• Insect pests• Greater numbers, increased insecticide resistance

• Geographic ranges increases & decreases

• Imports from foreign sources

• Pathogens• Host-pathogen response changes (plants, insects, non-crop

reservoirs)

• Cultural control measures may be less reliable

• Extreme events can spread

• Weeds – Increased vigor, herbicide resistance

– Geographic range increases & decreases

1. Climate Change impact on Agriculture ( Crops) contd(Increased Biotic Stresses )

Will Significantly Affect Agriculture

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)Animal health

Animal health may be affected by climate change in four ways: heat-related diseases and stress, extreme weather events, adaptation of animal production systems to new environments, and emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases critically dependent on environmental and climatic conditions.

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)

1. Heat stress can increase vulnerability to disease, reduce fertility, and reduce milk production.2. Drought may threaten pasture and feed supplies. Drought reduces the amount of quality forage available to grazing livestock. 3. Climate change may increase the prevalence of parasites and diseases that affect livestock. The earlier onset of spring and warmer winters could allow some parasites and pathogens to survive more easily. In areas with increased rainfall, moisture-reliant pathogens could thrive.4..Increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) may increase the productivity of

pastures, but may also decrease their quality. Increases in atmospheric CO2 can increase the productivity of plants on which livestock feed.

• Feed Grain & Forage

– Quantity & Quality Decrease

– Production Cost Increase

• Animal Heat & Humidity Stress

– Reduces growth, reproduction,

production (meat, dairy, eggs)

-- Climate control costs increase

• Disease & Pests

– Frequency, intensity, distribution

– Abundance and/or distribution of competitors, predators, & parasites of vectors themselves

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)Animal health (Livestock Production is Vulnerable)

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock) (Animal production )

• 1. Direct affects on animal health, growth , production and reproduction

• 2. Indirect • i.On livestock pasture, forage crop production ,

quality and price.• ii .Heat stress • Iii. On biodiversity • Iv.Emergence or reemergence and changes in

distribution of livestock diseases and pests • V. on Immune system

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)male reproduction

• 1. Inverse correlatio between environment zone and spem cone.

• 2.Decrease sperm motality

• 3.Increased, no of dead sperm.

• 4.Increase abnormal morphology of sperm e.g. abnormal acrosome

• 5.decrease total protein and albumin cone

• 6.Decreased level of testosterone

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)Female reproduction

• 1. Reduction in duration of estrous.• 2.Reduce of 17-B estradiol during estrus.• 3. Reduced diameter and volume of developing follicle.• 4. 4.5 mounts in summer compared to .6 mounts in

winter.• 5.Increased cortisol level block estradiol induced sexual

behavour• 6.Uterinre blood flow decreases 20-30 % in ewe with 1

degree C increase in core temp.• 7. Conception rates decline in Bos taurus cattle for

temperatur above 23.4 C and a high valus of THI

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)Female reproduction

• . Reduce embryo proportin development.

• 9.Retarded fetal growth.

• 10. reduced vascular perfusion to placental bed.

• 11. Reduced oxygen. Water, nutrient , hormone supply to embryo.

• 12.Reduced excessive damaging heat away from embryo.

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)Female reproduction

• 13. intrauterine growth retardation produce dwarf and stunted offspring with skeltalabnormality .

• 14.One fetus of heat stressed twin in 20% smaller than littrmate.

• 15.Hyperthermia produce fetal malformation.

• 16.Alteration in uterine endometrial secretion.

• 17.Arise in 1.5 degree C in core temp cause death of embryo.

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)Female reproduction

• 18. Affect the quality and quantity of forage produced.

• 19.Hamper the productivity of grazing livestock.

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)Species Sensitivities

• Changes: temperature, sea level, river flows, salinity, currents, winds, storms, and variability

• Species are dependent on one or more of above

• Species can move rapidly if habitat and paths exist

• Fish are cold-blooded. Life processes, like growth, are faster when warmer (within limits)

• Many species have narrow ecological niches, but there are many species to fill niches

• Small changes cause large disruptions to a species

• Mixes will change until stability is reestablished

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)Societal Sensitivities

• Species in more stable environments are usually more valuable

• Fishers can follow fish, communities won’t

• Political borders or economics stop pursuit

• Developing nations dependent on fish as food or export earnings are most sensitive

2. Climate changed impact on Agriculture ( Livestock)Sensitivity Examples

• Scallop and fish eggs that rely on a gyre to return them to their habitat on a certain day or week

• Fish eggs in streams or on the sea floor that require a minimum current speed for oxygenation

• Species that require an influx of freshwater to induce spawning or to kill predators

• Temperatures above or below the stock’s lethal limit

• Immobility of communities dependent on one species

• Societies without money to buy other foods

• Fishers unable to deal with new vessel/gear demands

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3. Climate change impact on Agriculture (fisheries)

• 1. The ranges of many fish and shellfish species may change. Many marine species have certain temperature ranges at which they can survive.

• 2. However, moving into new areas may put these species into competition with other species over food and other resources.

• 3. Some diseases that affect aquatic life may become more prevalent in warm water . A temperature-sensitive bacterial shell disease likely caused the large die-off events that led to the decline.

• 4. Changes in temperature and seasons could affect the timing of reproduction and migration.

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4. Climate change effect on water

• Climate change will have major and unpredictable effects on the world's water systems, including an increase in floods and droughts. Extremes in droughts and flooding will become more common, causing displacement and conflict. Less fresh water means less agriculture, food and income.

5.Climate change impacts on forests

• Scientists estimate that up to 20 percent of global carbon emissions come from deforestation – greater than the combined emissions of every car, truck and plane on the planet. So instead of forests helping us to solve the climate crisis, deforestation is making the situation worse.

5.Climate change impacts on forests( contd)

• Deforestation and land use changeMassive amounts of carbon are stored in tropical forests. When we destroy these areas to clear land for ranches or farms, that carbon gets released into the atmosphere and accelerates climate change. Studies show that deforestation accounts for 11% of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

6. Climate change impacts on food security

• Climate change will have a significant impact on food availability, food accessibility, food utilization and food systems stability in many parts of the world. Climate change poses a significant risk of increased crop failure, loss of livestock and will impact on local food security.In some areas drier and warmer conditions are predicted, elsewhere wetter and cooler conditions are expected which will negatively affect agricultural practices. It will affect human health and livelihoods, as well as people’s purchasing power, food markets and food security at household levels.

7. Climate change impact on Environment

Positive effects of climate change may include greener rainforests and enhanced plant growth in the Amazon, increased vegitation in northern latitudes and possible increases inplankton biomass in some parts of the ocean. Negative responses may include further growth of oxygen poor ocean zones, contamination or exhaustion of fresh water, increased incidence of natural fires, extensive vegetation die-off due to droughts, increased risk of coral extinction, decline in global photoplankton, changes in migration patterns of birds and animals, changes in seasonal periodicity, disruption to food chains and species loss.

8. Climate change impact on economics

• The economic impacts of climate change may be catastrophic, while there have been very few benefits projected at all. The Stern report made clear the overall pattern of economic distress, and while the specific numbers may be contested, the costs of climate changewerefar in excess of the costs of preventing it.

9.Climate change impact on natural disaster

• Natural disasters Natural disasters related to existing climate variability frequently occur in the poorest countries and the poor are usually the hardest hit. In responding to the potential increase in natural disasters due to climate change, lessons can be learned from coping with existing climate variability. Climate change may result in more frequent and severe disasters and climatic shocks than experienced to date, so this provides grounds for integrating risk management into development practices, and for considering strategically, how to integrate long-term climatic change into disaster risk managemen

10.Climate change impact on woman

• Climate change and gender inequality Women are very vulnerable, and are most likely to be disproportionately affected by the adverse impacts of climate change because they constitute the majority of poor people. Women’s traditional roles as the primary users and managers of natural resources, primary caregivers, and labourers engaged in unpaid labour mean they are involved in, and dependent on livelihoods and resources that are put most at risk by climate change. Furthermore, women lack rights and access to resources and information vital to overcoming the challenges posed by climate change, http

11.Climate change impact on conflicts and migration

• Conflicts and Migration It is widely recognized that the nature and extent of climate change not only hampers human development and ecosystems integrity, but also forms a major threat to human security at all levels, from local to international. Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, and desertification are likely to force increasing numbers of our country population to migrate from rural to urban areas, away from increasingly arid areas , and often outside the region.

12.Climate Change impact on humans

• Weather and climate play a significant role in people's health. Changes in climate affect the average weather conditions that we are accustomed to.• Warmer average temperatures will likely lead to hotter days and more frequent and longer heat waves. This could increase the number of heat-

related illnesses and deaths. • Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other

direct threats to people and property. • Warmer temperatures could increase the concentrations of unhealthy air and water pollutants.• Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. Contribute to mental health

impacts such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder.• Contribute to carbon monoxide poisoning from portable electric generators used during and after storms.

• Climate change may affect allergies and respiratory health. [The spring pollen season is already occurring earlier in the United States due to climate change. The length of the season may also have increased. In addition, climate change may facilitate the spread of ragweed, an invasive plant with very allergenic pollen. Tests on ragweed show that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures would increase the amount and timing of ragweed pollen production.

• Higher air temperatures can increase cases of salmonella and other bacteria-related food poisoning because bacteria grow more rapidly in warm environments. These diseases can cause gastrointestinal distress and, in severe cases, death.

• Heavy rainfall or flooding can increase water-borne parasites such asCryptosporidium and Giardia that are sometimes found in drinking water. [1]These parasites can cause gastrointestinal distress and in severe cases, death.

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13.Climate change impact on biodiversity

• 1. 4000 breeds of cattle, bufelloe , sheep .goat,ass . Horse etc lost.

• 2.16% become instinct• 3. 12% become rrare.• 4. 20 % of reported breeds are classified as atrisk.• 5. Almost one breed become extint per month.• 6.With 4.5 c increase , major extinction.• 7.Reduction of 15-37 % of plant and animals will

extinct between 2050.• 8. About 30 % plant and animal vulnerable if temp

increases 1.5- 2.5 degree C .

14. Climate change impact today

1. Arctic sea is melting through rising air and water temperature 2. Glaciers and permafrost are melting3. Sea surface temperature and large lakes are warming4. Ecosystem are changing and crops are withering 5. Hurricanes have changed in frequency and strength 6. More frequent heat waves 7. Warmer temperature effect health of humans 8. Sea water is becoming more acidic 9. Increasing intensity and frequency of storm events, flooding and

sea level rise .10. Decreasing water availability throughout season .11. Air condition cost increases as the temperature increases .

Loadsheding prevails .

15. Climate change impact on energy

• During and following the industrial revolution, we acquired most of our energy—to build our cities, to transport goods and people, and more—through the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil. Fossil fuels are a finite, unsustainable source of energy and burning them produces the GHGs that lead to global warming.

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16.Climate change and global security

• Climate change is a real, transnational threat. It has now become a serious challenge for global security. The world has to adapt now, otherwise these rising climate change threats could cause serious consequences to global security. There is dire need of cross-border information sharing regarding climate change and need of strong cooperation and collaboration among countries and regions.

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17. Climate change impact on global warming

• Intergoveernment panel on climate change ( IPCC)• The IPCC report also highlights that global warming will hit

Asia the hardest, with flooding, famine and rising sea levels putting hundreds of millions at risk. But the majority of the marginalised communities in the disaster-prone areas have no knowledge, no capacity, and no early warning system to combat with harmful impact of climate change. Despite having a lot of potential to tackle the challenges of climate change, very little has been done regarding mitigation, preparedness, awareness and adaptation strategies.

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18. Climate change impact on air

• The close connection between climate and air quality is also reflected in the impacts of climate change on air pollution levels.

• Ozone and particle pollution are strongly influenced by shifts in the weather (e.g., heat waves or droughts). Based on projected future climate scenarios, and in the absence of additional emissions reductions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected “declining air quality in cities” into the future as a result of climate change. Further, EPA concluded in 2009 that GHG emissions “may reasonably be anticipated both to endanger public health and to endanger public welfare. Climate change itself may have a direct impact on air quality. Air quality modelling studies show that with warmer temperatures in the future, higher levels of ozone will be produced in North American cities.

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19. Climate change impact on fossil fuels

• Illness and deaths related to extraction, air pollution and water pollution, contaminated seafood, and Black Lung disease for miners. ▀Damage to land, homes and loss of habitat from mountaintop mining, oil and gas extraction, buildup of toxic coal ash at coal power plants, oil spills, and explosions and the costs to remediate the damage. ▀Environmental degradation and loss of aquatic habitat caused by acid rain and polluted water, including surface, ground and drinking water sources. ▀Increased national security costs to protect diminishing sources of oil. ▀Faster depletion of fossil fuels and lack of adequate renewable replacements. ▀Diminishing water resources caused by extraction of fossil fuels.

20. Climate change impact on society

• Climate change could affect our society through impacts on a number of different social, cultural, and natural resources. For example, climate change could affect human health, infrastructure, and transportation systems, as well as energy, food, and water supplies.

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21. Climate change impact on allergies

• Climate change may affect allergies and respiratory health. [4] The spring pollen season is already occurring earlier in the United States due to climate change. The length of the season may also have increased. In addition, climate change may facilitate the spread of ragweed, an invasive plant with very allergenic pollen. Tests on ragweed show that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures would increase the amount and timing of ragweed pollen production.

• Changes in climate may enhance the spread of some diseases. Disease-causing agents, called pathogens, can be transmitted through food, water, and animals such as deer, birds, mice, and insects. Climate change could affect all of these transmitters.

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Main Challenges of Climate Change

• A.Water Challenge

• B.Food Security challenge

• C. Climate Extreme Events Hazards

• D. Impacts on other Ecosystems

A. Water Challenge (Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change)

• Increased variability of Monsoon

• More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers threatening IRS Flows

• Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture, water for industrial and domestic sectors.

• Increased risks of floods and droughts

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Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru,

1978

2002

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The Pasterze, Austria's longest glacier, was about 2 kilometers longer in the 19th C. but

is now completely out of sight from this overlook on the Grossglockner High Road.

1875 2004

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Mount Kiliminjaro, Kenya, Africa

2000 1993

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Changes in Gangotri Glacier, Indian Himalaya

This composite ASTER image shows how the Gangotri Glacier terminus has

retracted since 1780. Contour lines are approximate. (Image by Jesse Allen, Earth

Observatory; based on data provided by the ASTER Science Team; glacier retreat

boundaries courtesy the La5555nd Processes Distributed Active Archive Center)

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1989-10-09 2000-10-31

GLOFS in Pakistan

• As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach anytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:

• property,

• farms,

• socio-economic infrastructure

• and livelihood of mountain people

• and downstream communities.

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GLOF-induced damages at Chut Ghusth, Ghulkin

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Web Source: http://pamirtimes.net/2008/06/page/3/

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Glacier Area Currently under Study at GCISC

Hunza River Basin

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Retreat of the Helheim Glacier Greenland

2005

2001

2003

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There is an urgent need to

Assess Pakistan’s glaciers, future water resources and storage requirements in the wake of climate change threat

Take appropriate ameliorative measures well in time to avoid calamites.

TheA. Water Challenge (Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change)

Water Challenge: Conclusion

B.Food Security Challenge

Agriculture Systems in Pakistan

• Irrigated AgricultureConsumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% to national production

• Rained and Dryland Agriculture Contributes <30% to national production.

B. Food Security (Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change)

• Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to

glacier melt in the wake of climate change

• Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in

quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls.

• Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to

climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc

B. Food Security Cropping Seasons in Pakistan

There are two crops seasons in Pakistan namely, Rabi and Kharif. Rabi crops are grown normally in the months of November to April and Kharif crops are grown from May to October. These two seasons make Pakistan an agricultural economy and its performance depends on the climate during the whole year. Climate change generally affect agriculture through changes in temperature, precipitation.

B, Food Security Impacts of Climate Change on Crops

• Shortening of growing season length

• Loss in yield

• Heat stress at sensitive growth stages, e.g. flowering, grain initiation stages

• Increased pest/disease incidence

• Increased crop water requirements

• Flash floods,

• Droughts,

• Heavy precipitation events,

• Hailstorms,

• Dust storms,

• Cyclones,

• Heat /Cold waves

B. Food security Climate Extreme Events

Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan

2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm atAirport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 mmoccurred in 1977

2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperature

of 48 C was recorded on 9th June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after

78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June, 1929

2007 Two super cyclones namely Gonu of Cat-5 and Yemyin of Cat-1

developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makrancoast and adjoining countries. The history of Arabian Sea at least duringthe previous century finds no such events occurring twice in a month

2006 In Pakistan, monsoon-related flooding was blamed for more than 185deaths from late July through mid-August 2006 (AFP). In neighboringeastern Afghanistan, heavy rainfall generated flooding that claimed atleast 35 lives (Associated Press)

2005 Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan inMarch. The flooding hit Balochistan Province very adversely. Therewere more than 30 fatalities in southwestern Pakistan

Recent Climate Extremes in Pakistan

2005 During June, unusually warm temperatures in the mountainous

areas of northern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and brought

extensive flooding along the Kabul, Swat, Kunar and Chitral rivers

2005 Heavy rains in the south and snow in the north as well as Kashmir

region triggered flooding and avalanches, killing at least 486

people during second week of February

2004 Unusual late-season heavy snow fell across the Kashmir region along

the border of India and Pakistan during early May. Some 20,000

nomads trapped in the Himalayan areas of Kashmir.

2003 Heavy rain and snow produced flooding in mid February was

responsible for more than 60 deaths in Balochistan province. Flash

flooding washed away parts of roads and highways.

2003 At least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rains

in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153 fatalities

in the Sindh province

2003 During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached 52°C at Jacobabad on the 5th; normal highs in early June are near 44°C

2001 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July

1999-2001 History’s worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts of surrounding countries

Continued:

Urban Flooding in Lai Nullah

( 23rd July 2001)

Flood Stranded People on the Highway

C.Impacts on other Ecosystems

C.Impacts on other Ecosystems(Land Degradation in Pakistan)

Water Erosion : 17%

Wind Erosion : 8%

Salinity and Sodicity : 9%

Waterlogging : 5%

Low organic matter (<1%) : 96%

C.Impacts on other Ecosystems(Impacts on Land degradation)

Land degradation enhanced by climate change due to

• Wind and water erosion, as a result of low and high rainfall

• Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of greater evaporation from land surface.

C.Impacts on other Ecosystems(Vulnerability of Mountain Region)

• Enhanced de-glaciation

• Loss of biodiversity

• Overall increasing trend in rainfall leading to surface runoff, soil erosion, landslides, sedimentation load downstream

• Positive impact on yield of wheat

• Prospects of two crops a year

C.Impacts on other Ecosystems(Coastal Zones)

• Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangrove forests,

coral reefs breeding ground of fish and infrastructure

• Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta will pose risk

to agriculture, fresh drinking water and livelihood of dependant

communities, thousands of hectares of fertile soil will become

saline

• Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, sea level will continue to rise for centuries beyond 2100 because of the long response time of the global ocean system.

Coping with the Climate Change

• Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of vulnerable areas and communities

• Preparedness for disaster and risk management• Development of early warning system• Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infra-structural

changes • Developing new and innovative farm production practices,

including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques • Empowering communities and local stakeholders for their active

participation in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation

• Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors

Extreme Weather EventsRecent extreme weather events which inflicted great loss tothe socio-economic sector

Cloudburst Events 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008,2009, 2010, 2011 Prolonged Drought 1999-2002Historic River Flooding 2010Tropical Cyclones 1999,2007,2009,2010, 2011 Severe Urban Flooding 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 Heat Waves in Spring 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011 (Reduced the wheat yield)Snowmelt flooding 2005, 2007 and 2010Drought at sowing stage 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2011

Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan

• How is Pakistan affected by climate change?Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, but remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change by the following ways:

• Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding will affect water resources within the next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows over time as glaciers recede.

• Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss and reduce availability of freshwater for the population.

• Coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea and in some cases, the rivers.

• Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan which in turn will affect livelihoods and food production. Combining the decreased yields with the current rapid population growth and urbanization in the country, the risk of hunger and food security will remain high.

• Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise. Increases in coastal water temperatures would exacerbate the abundance of cholera.

• The impact of climate change will also aggravate the existing social inequalities of resource use and intensify social factors leading to instability, conflicts, displacement of people and changes in migration patterns.

Coping Pakistan Chapter

• 1. “knowledge gap” among the farmer community should be filled through awareness-raising campaigns and provision of information on changing weather patterns.

• 2. “We need to link all our development activities like dams, roads, canals and bridges with climate change; otherwise all the development may go waste,”

• 3. “The government should revive the climate change ministry and develop different viable projects to seek international funding for them.”

• 4. The country needs to develop climate change related projects to get its monetary share from the Green Climate Fund, since it cannot cope with these challenges from its own resources.

• 5.•

• Increasing access to high quality information about the impacts of climate change• Improving technological responses by setting in place early warning systems and

information systems to enhance disaster preparedness• Practicing energy efficiency through changes in individual lifestyles and businesses• Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods to climate change through infra-structural

changes• Promoting good governance and responsible policy by integrating risk

management and adaptation• Developing new and innovative farm production practices, including new crop

varieties and irrigation techniques• Improving forest management and biodiversity conservation• Empowering communities and local stakeholders so that they participate actively

in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation• Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and

sectors•

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Climate change will lead to various disasters/hazards such as:Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides, Avalanches, Floods, Droughts and Cyclones.

Climate Change will also adversely affect various sectors of Pakistan’s economy.

Realistic assessment of the impacts and implementation of appropriate adaptation measures well in time is imperative.

• Preparedness for disaster/ risk management and development of early warning system will contribute to safeguarding the vulnerable communities/sectors.

Conclusions