Census Data and Montana Indian Reservations

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Census Data and MontanaIndian Reservations

Pam HarrisBureau ChiefCensus and Economic Information CenterMontana Department of Commerce

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CEIC – Who We Are Partnership with U.S. Dept. of Commerce,

Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis to disseminate Montana data collected by federal agencies

Cvs.C staff provide demographic and economic data and analysis, GIS support, technical assistance and training. Assist Montana businesses, communities schools,

and all government agencies to access and use this information for decision-making.

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Why Census Data? Census data is unique Only source for small area data (reservation,

cities/towns, tribal census tracts, etc.) Only source which shows characteristics for the

population such as age, race, gender, educational attainment, income, labor force, types of households, etc.

Census results are used to distribute almost $200 billion annually in federal, state, local, and tribal funds

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Examples of American Indian Federal Programs Relying on Census Data

Workforce Investment Program Community Development Block Grants

(CDBG) Supplemental Food Program for Women,

Infants and Children (WIC) Temporary Assistance to Needy Families Low Income Energy Assistance

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How can data help? Census data helps tribal planners evaluate conditions on their

reservations and in their communities. Tribal governments, states, cities, federal agencies, and businesses all

need current information to make critical decisions. Data can help decide what services are needed and how to distribute

funding for housing, economic development, health care, and other programs that benefit veterans, children, families, the elderly and the society as a whole.

Census data is an important tool for tribal government decision-making and could result in improved utility services, new housing, job training, better school facilities, or a new health clinic to benefit you, your family, your community or reservation.

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More current data coming.. American Community Survey (ACS) will replace the decennial

census long form questionnaire producing the socio-economic data every year instead of every 10 years.

Example – Workforce Investment Act of 1998 requires information about American Indian and Alaska Native households to support training and employment activities. ACS will provide this critically important information.

ACS has been endorsed by the Indian and Native American Employment and Training Coalition and the National Congress of American Indians.

Flathead and Lake Counties have been a successful part of the early ACS testing for the last six years.

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Census 2010Pilot project in South Dakota, Cheyenne River Reservation

An accurate and complete count of the population in 2010 will enable American Indians to receive the correct share of federal and state resources that are based on census data

Pilot project is testing new counting methods; setting standard for how the Census Bureau counts American Indians all over the U.S.

American Indians have been undercounted in previous censuses, and the mutual goal of the Census Bureau and the American Indian community is to reverse that trend in 2010.

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Montana Reservations

Accurate Data

Federal Statistical Agencies

Statistics

Grant Writers

Planners SocialServiceAgencies

EconomicDevelopers

$ for Montana Reservations

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Summary Federal monies are getting harder to obtain. Data

users need to be smarter about using the information available to help secure essential funding for tribal programs.

Without accurate, reliable, and current information, detailed analysis of Indian Reservations’ Economies’ will be more difficult.

Need to work together, take ownership of the data, to ensure that the American Community Survey and the 2010 Census are the best they can be, which will ultimately benefit everyone.

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Analyzing Montana’s Indian Reservations’ Economies

Susan OckertSenior Research Economist,

Census and Economic Information Center, Montana Department of Commerce

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Sanders

Flathead

Lake

Missoula

Glacier

Pondera

Hill Blaine

PhillipsValley

Roosevelt

SheridanDaniels

Big Horn

Rosebud

Yellowstone

Chouteau

BLACKFEET

Population 10,100

Unemployment 22.6%

Per Capita Income $9,751

Poverty 30.0%

Median Age 26.5

BA+ 13.5%

% American Indian 84.2%

FLATHEAD

Population 26,172

Unemployment 7.9%


Poverty 15.8%

Median Age 37.4

BA+ 20.8%


ROCKY BOY’S

Population 2,676

Unemployment 28.4%


Poverty 38.0%

Median Age 20.5

BA+ 11.8%


FORT BELKNAP

Population 2,959

Unemployment 23%


Poverty 36.5%

Median Age 23.5

BA+ 12.5%


FORT PECK

Population 10,321

Unemployment 17.5%


Poverty 30.1%

Median Age 30.2

BA+ 14.6%


NORTHERN CHEYENNE

Population 4,470

Unemployment 19.5%


Poverty 39.3%

Median Age 22.7

BA+ 13.5%


CROW

Population 6,894

Unemployment 17.1%


Poverty 26.6%

Median Age 27.6

BA+ 13.8%


SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, CENSUS 2000SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, CENSUS 2000

2000 Census Data

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Reservation Total

American Indian Tribe Number

Blackfeet 10,110 8,146 Blackfeet alone 7,441

Crow 6,894 5,132 Crow alone 4.556

Flathead 26,172 6,339 Salish alone

Kootenai alone

Salish and Kootenai

1,842

308

2,348

Fort Belknap 2,959 2,764 Assiniboine alone

Gros Ventres alone

1,068

1,276

Fort Peck 10,321 6,116 Assiniboine alone

Assiniboine Sioux alone

Sioux alone

1,107

781

3,406

Northern Cheyenne 4,470 3,835 Northern Cheyenne alone 2,982

Rocky Boy’s 2,676 2,446 Rocky Boy’s Chippewa Cree alone 2130

Population by American Indian and by Tribe:Population by American Indian and by Tribe:

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

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Item Number PercentTOTAL 56,068 100%

Urban 23,347 41.6%

Metropolitan* 9,537 17%

Rural 32,721 58.4%

Not in a Place** 14,283 25.5%

*Metropolitan Areas: Billings, Great Falls, Missoula

**Concentrations of population, housing, and commercial structures that areidentifiable by name but have no legal authority.

American Indian Population: Urban vs. RuralUrban = 1,000 people per square mile

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

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What is an ‘economy’?Businesses

Consumers

GovernmentCreate Wealth

Redistribute Wealth

Jobs Income

•Marketing•Customer Service•Accounting•Management

•Public GoodsPublic Goods•Zoning/Land Use•Public Finance•Public Safety

Source: “Understanding Your Community’s Economic Base,” University of Missouri Extension, http://muextension.missouri.edu

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Current Reservation EnvironmentPopulationPopulation Faster growth rate Younger median age

EducationEducation Fewer with degrees Higher drop out rate

SocialSocial Larger percent of

population uses food stamps

Higher pregnancy rate

Higher alcohol treatment need

Sources: See last page

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Current Reservation Economies Higher unemployment More poverty Lower per capita income Lower wages Lower housing values Smaller private sectorSources: See last page

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Types of Jobs 33% of jobs on the reservation are

Government compared with 15% of jobs in the country as a whole

44% of jobs on the reservation are in the Private Sector compared with 80% of jobs in the nation

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, fedgazette, March 2006

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Item 1997 2002

Number of businesses – MT 93,677 100,421

Number of Businesses – AI 1,912 1,990

Growth Rate – MT (1997 – 2002) 9%

Growth Rate – AI (1997 – 2002) 4%

Population – MT 878,706 910,670

Population – AI 54,726 57,841

Firms/1,000 citizens – MT 107 110

Firms/1,000 Indians – AI 35 34

Firms with employees – MT 25,974 28,258

Firms with employees – AI 438 357

% of firms with employees/total firms - MT 28% 28%

% of firms with employees/total firms – AI 23% 18%

Sales per business – MT ($1,000) $402,321 $445,543

Sales per business – AI ($1,000) $86,436 $107,830

Business Environment

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Survey of Business Owners”

NOTE: AI = American Indian

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Threshold Analysis Central Place Theory - Population needed to

support retail and service businesses Simple Analysis: population and number of

businesses Similar characteristics such as population & location Does not take into account economies of scale

Square footage Number of doctors in one facility

Grocery store Health care Financial Institutions

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Grocery StoresLocation Threshold Actual# Potential*On the Reservation 4,480 4 6

Browning 1 2

Wolf Point 1 2

Ronan 2 2

Just off Reservation 2,923 5 5

Trade Center 3,287 10 12

Metropolitan 2,853 75 85

Statewide 2,725 337 337

On the Reservation: Browning, Wolf Point, RonanJust Off the Reservation: Cut Bank, Hardin, GlasgowTrade Center: Havre, Miles City, GlendiveMetropolitan: Missoula, Great Falls, Billings and Helena

# Number of Businesses *Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 2,725

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Health Care: Doctors and Clinics

Location Threshold Actual# Potential*On the Reservation 1,378 13 35

Browning 2 13

Wolf Point 3 10

Ronan 8 12

Just off Reservation 812 18 29

Trade Center 587 56 64

Metropolitan 300 808 476

Statewide 509 1,804 1,804

# Number of Businesses *Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 509


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Financial InstitutionsLocation Threshold Actual# Potential*On the Reservation 3,584 5 14

Browning 1 5

Wolf Point 2 4

Ronan 2 5

Just off Reservation 1,044 14 12

Trade Center 1,174 28 27

Metropolitan 780 311 197

Statewide 1,227 748 748

# Number of Businesses *Number of Businesses using statewide threshold of 1,227


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Implications Reservations are underserved in these

private sectors

Just Off the Reservation serving own population and reservation

Trade Centers and Metropolitans serve a much larger region

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Location Quotient Determine if number of jobs are what a local

economy should have to serve local needs Comparison of local employment to statewide for

each industry < 1 = underserved, > 1 = serving more than local MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research

and Analysis has calculated LQ for each county in Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)

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Fort Peck ReservationIndustry LQ Comment

Grocery Stores 1.2 Slightly serving more than local

Financial Institutions

0.4 Underserved

Health Care 0.2 Very underserved

Industry LQ Comment

Executive Government 10.9 Most over served of all

Human Resource Programs 7.2 2nd over served

Specialty Trade .13 Underserved

Professional Services .16 Underserved

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Blackfeet ReservationIndustry LQ Comment

Grocery Stores 0.03 Very under served

Financial Institution ND Non-disclosable – one establishment

Health Care ND Non-disclosable – one establishment

Industry LQ Comment

Human Resource Programs 16.6 Most over served of all

Executive Government 14.9 2nd over served

Food Services .03 Under served

Support for mining .007 Under served

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ComparisonsEntity Grocery Stores Health Care Financial Institutions

Fort Peck 1.2 0.2 0.4

Blackfeet 0.03 ND ND

Statewide 1.04 1.0 1.0

State – Most over served: Mining except Oil & Gas at 5.7– Most under served: Textile Mills at .06

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Implications Money is leaving the reservations to

purchase retail goods and consumer services

There is not an adequate supply of financial services on the reservations

There is not an adequate supply of doctors, clinics, etc. on the reservations

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Diversity of Economy Hachman Index measures diversity of economy –

employment spread out among many different industries compared to benchmark Montana or United States

More diversity reduces community’s vulnerability to economic downturns

Closer to 1 mean more diversity MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research

and Analysis has calculated HI for each county in Montana (www.ourfactsyourfuture.mt.gov)

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Hachman Index Fort Peck Reservation = .24 Blackfeet Reservation = .14

County Hachman Indices Lowest (Stillwater) = .01 Median = .25

(McCone, Phillips, Toole)

Highest = .66 (Gallatin, Missoula, Cascade)

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Implications Reservation and county economies are not

diverse

‘One company’ towns

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Vibrancy of EconomyTown

Zip Code Population

# of Retail Est Pop/Est

# of Govt entities* Pop/Govt Zip Code

Browning 6,689 14 478 81 83 59417

Cut Bank 5,220 27 193 27 193 59427

Wolf Point 5,027 31 162 35 144 59201

Scobey 1,498 14 107 11 136 59263

Lame Deer 2,908 6 485 74 39 59043

Hardin 4,726 29 163 15 315 59034

Crow Agency 2,290 8 286 59 39 59022

Box Elder 2,901 2 1,450 25 116 59521

Harlem 2,565 12 214 19 135 59526

Hays 1,092 3 364 5 218 59527

Pablo 632 4 158 8 79 59855

Ronan 6,202 40 155 20 310 59864

Helena 47,154 277 170 133 355 59601,2,4,20,23,24,25,26

Montana 926,865 5,145 180 2,309 401*Reference USA•921: Executive, Legislative and •Other government support. Excludes•Law enforcement, public health

Sources: Reference USA, www.referenceusa.com, U.S. Census Bureau, Zip Code Business Patterns, 2002 and 2003

NOTE: Red is off the reservation

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Productivity – Measure of EfficiencyAverage Output per Worker (IMPLAN)

Area Output/worker

Montana $86,309

Blackfeet $75,398

Crow $76,531

Flathead $82,532

Fort Belknap $56,367

Fort Peck $69,559

Northern Cheyenne $60,559

Rocky Boys $67,638

Glacier $71,790

Toole $77,466

Yellowstone $116,707

Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com

Area Output/worker

Lewis & Clark $82,675

Cascade $83,367

Missoula $82,749

Gallatin $80,178

Flathead $85,341

Hill $69,383

Garfield $82,941

Richland $85,986

Rosebud $100,944

Blaine $59,319

Beaverhead $80,303

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Compensation per WorkerAverage Salary per Worker (IMPLAN)

Area Output/worker

Montana $24,680

Blackfeet $20,894

Crow $21,697

Flathead $24,197

Fort Belknap $16,089

Fort Peck $17,129

Northern Cheyenne $27,005

Rocky Boys $21,908

Glacier $26,409

Toole $22,866

Yellowstone $28,867

Minnesota IMPLAN Group, www.implan.com

Area Output/worker

Lewis & Clark $30,370

Cascade $28,048

Missoula $25,324

Gallatin $23,500

Flathead $23,225

Hill $23,711

Garfield $10,775

Richland $21,350

Rosebud $35,437

Blaine $19,141

Beaverhead $21,834

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Reservation Natural Resources

Resource Total

Timber Sales (2005) $ 4,242,299

Coal Royalties (2000) $ 3,402,663

Gas Royalties (2000) $ 610,000

Oil Royalties (2000) $ 2,550,800

Montana Reservations compared to U.S. Reservations• 13% of all acres of coal• 12% of all oil and gas leases• 5% of all coal royalties/revenues• 5% of oil royalties/revenues

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Agriculture on the Reservation

Item Total

Non Native American

Native American

% of Total

Farms 2,552 1,825 727 29%

Average Size (acres) 3,116 2,179 5,196 167%

Market Value of Products $221,182,000 $162,150,000 $59,032,000 27%

Farm Expenses* $183,549,000 $150,709,000 $32,841,000 18%

Internet Access 1,406 1,048 358 26%

% of Farms with Internet 55% 57% 49% N/A

Market Value per Acre $52,116 $59,636 $11,361 22%

Expense per Acre $43,249 $55,428 $6,320 15%

Net Income per AcreNet Income per Acre $8,867$8,867 $4,208$4,208 $5,041$5,041 57%57%* Due to confidential information, only 6 reservations used

United States Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, http://www.nass.usda.gov/Census_of_Agriculture/index.asp

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SummaryWith legal and policy foundation and data collection:

Reservations have potential to expand private

business sectors Reservations have natural resources, especially for

energy generation, to use as economic engines American Indian farmers appear to have comparative

advantage in farming

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Contact InformationSusan Ockert

Senior Research Economist(406) [email protected]

PowerPoint presentation available on CEIC’s web site at www.ceic.mt.gov/presentations.asp and MEDA’s web site at www.medamembers.org/memdir.php

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NOTES:BA+: Bachelor’s and Advanced DegreesPregnancy Rate: Pregnancies per 1,000 teens, aged 15-19Alcohol Treatment Need: Index that includes alcohol mortality and alcohol-defined arrest rates

SOURCES: Reservation Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000; US Department of Interior, Bureau of Indian

Affairs, 2003; MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research Analysis Bureau, 2005 Population: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, July 1, 2004 Estimates Unemployment: MT Department of Labor and Industry, Research and Analysis Bureau, Labor Day

Report 2005 Per Capita: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2003 Poverty: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates, 2002 Housing Value: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Median Age: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 % Food Stamps: MT Department Public Health and Human Services, Statistical Report June 2005 Pregnancies: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, Trends in Montana Teen

Pregnancies and Their Outcomes 1981-2000, November 2002 Alcohol treatment Need: MT Department of Public Health and Human Services, An Integrated Substance

Abuse Treatment Needs Assessment for Montana, 2001 Drop Out: Office of Public Instruction, Montana High School Dropout Rates by Race/Ethnicity, 2003-04

School Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 American Indian and Alaska Native Summary File (AIANSF)

– Sample Data, www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/allreservationsbytribe.xls Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 2, Matrix PCT1.

www.ceic.mt.gov/C2000/urban_rural_indian.xls

Census Data and Montana Indian Reservations

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