Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

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PEAK MARKET - Signals the End of the Real Estate Cycle is eminent PENDING RATIO 100 or GREATER PEAK SELLERS MARKET - PENDING RATIO FROM 51 TO 99 SELLER'S NEUTRAL OR STABLE MARKET - PENDING RATIO FROM 30 TO 50 NEUTRAL BUYERS MARKET - PENDING RATIO BELOW 30 BUYER'S TABLE 1 ACTIVE PENDING PENDING TYPE OF Number Sold Average VOLUME Median # SOLD to $4M LISTINGS SALES RATIO MARKET 12 Month Period Price MILLIONS Price Last 30 days 1/31/1997 no data no data no data no data 252 273,700 $ 69.0 $ 228,000 $ 16 1/31/1998 374 63 16.84 BUYER'S 246 283,000 $ 69.6 $ 237,000 $ 14 1/31/1999 305 73 23.93 BUYER'S 330 268,900 $ 88.7 $ 224,500 $ 19 1/31/2000 192 106 55.21 SELLER'S 441 313,700 $ 138.3 $ 246,000 $ 34 1/31/2001 290 134 46.21 NEUTRAL 447 360,400 $ 161.1 $ 275,000 $ 41 1/31/2002 no data 129 no data no data 519 354,900 $ 184.2 $ 275,000 $ 44 1/31/2003 228 133 58.33 SELLER'S 529 372,800 $ 197.2 $ 322,200 $ 28 1/31/2004 133 151 113.53 DEMAND PEAK 660 456,000 $ 301.0 $ 395,500 $ 48 1/31/2005 152 155 101.97 SELLER'S 683 585,100 $ 399.6 $ 498,000 $ 43 1/31/2006 304 119 39.14 NEUTRAL 648 737,200 $ 477.7 $ 625,000 $ 39 1/31/2007 407 77 18.92 PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 474 753,200 $ 357.0 $ 630,000 $ 29 1/31/2008 449 77 17.15 BUYER'S 394 718,900 $ 283.2 $ 603,500 $ 20 1/31/2009 447 41 9.17 DEMAND LOW 234 664,100 $ 155.4 $ 529,500 $ 7 1/31/2010 397 82 20.65 BUYER'S 283 500,900 $ 141.8 $ 420,000 $ 23 1/31/2011 279 105 37.63 NEUTRAL 357 467,900 $ 167.0 $ 395,000 $ 19 1/31/2012 268 97 36.19 PRICE BOTTOM >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 402 457,100 $ 183.8 $ 368,500 $ 23 1/31/2013 205 120 58.54 SELLER'S 420 514,200 $ 216.0 $ 399,100 $ 31 2010/2011 %chg -24% 24% 62% 4% 12% 18% 8% 35% GRIGGS REPORT #129 - JANUARY 31, 2013 A TWICE MONTHLY REAL ESTATE MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR NORTH KONA AND THE BIG ISLAND Inventory continues to be tight with a 24% decline from last year. All other stats continue to show improvement from a ye ar ago. Both Average and Median Price continue to show increase in almost each report. The pending ratio has taken its seasonal turn upward due to increased number of pending sales and stable or declining invent ory. $395 $400 $391 $375 $369 $369 $369 $365 $365 $373 $383 $385 $385 $385 $393 $399 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 $340 $350 $360 $370 $380 $390 $400 $410 Chart 1 - Kona Residential Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years Res-Median Price Res Pending Ratio 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 $- $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 CHART 2 - N. Kona Residential Median Price vs Number Sold Since 1997 Median Price Number Sold 12 Month Period PAGE 1 NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA ABOUT THE PENDING RATIO: The Pending Ratio is used throughout the report to serve as an indicator of Market Strength and Market Trend.. PENDING RATIO = NUMBER OF PENDING SALES DIVIDED BY ACTIVE LISTING TIMES 100 / THE HIGHER RATIO = STRONGER MARKET DEMAND. Why it is a useful indicator: 1) It is a current leading indicator of market Demand vs. Supply Dynamics based on Listing and Pending Sale MLS Data. 2) It is a readily available useful indication or market strength when tract over time shows market trend. The following Color Codes describe what the ratio numbers mean in terms of the type of market. ( This calibration is less accurate when there is an abnormal supply of distressed properties entering the market on a regular basis such as currently is the case. ) NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA TABLE CHART 2 - The growth in the number of home sales is remains relatively stable.

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Big Island Real Estate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

Transcript of Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

Page 1: Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

PEAK MARKET - Signals the End of the Real Estate Cycle is eminent PENDING RATIO 100 or GREATER PEAKSELLERS MARKET - PENDING RATIO FROM 51 TO 99 SELLER'SNEUTRAL OR STABLE MARKET - PENDING RATIO FROM 30 TO 50 NEUTRALBUYERS MARKET - PENDING RATIO BELOW 30 BUYER'S

TABLE 1 ACTIVE PENDING PENDING TYPE OF Number Sold Average VOLUME Median # SOLD

to $4M LISTINGS SALES RATIO MARKET 12 Month Period Price MILLIONS Price Last 30 days

1/31/1997 no data no data no data no data 252 273,700$ 69.0$ 228,000$ 16

1/31/1998 374 63 16.84 BUYER'S 246 283,000$ 69.6$ 237,000$ 14

1/31/1999 305 73 23.93 BUYER'S 330 268,900$ 88.7$ 224,500$ 19

1/31/2000 192 106 55.21 SELLER'S 441 313,700$ 138.3$ 246,000$ 34

1/31/2001 290 134 46.21 NEUTRAL 447 360,400$ 161.1$ 275,000$ 41

1/31/2002 no data 129 no data no data 519 354,900$ 184.2$ 275,000$ 44

1/31/2003 228 133 58.33 SELLER'S 529 372,800$ 197.2$ 322,200$ 28

1/31/2004 133 151 113.53 DEMAND PEAK 660 456,000$ 301.0$ 395,500$ 48

1/31/2005 152 155 101.97 SELLER'S 683 585,100$ 399.6$ 498,000$ 43

1/31/2006 304 119 39.14 NEUTRAL 648 737,200$ 477.7$ 625,000$ 39

1/31/2007 407 77 18.92 PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 474 753,200$ 357.0$ 630,000$ 29

1/31/2008 449 77 17.15 BUYER'S 394 718,900$ 283.2$ 603,500$ 20

1/31/2009 447 41 9.17 DEMAND LOW 234 664,100$ 155.4$ 529,500$ 7

1/31/2010 397 82 20.65 BUYER'S 283 500,900$ 141.8$ 420,000$ 23

1/31/2011 279 105 37.63 NEUTRAL 357 467,900$ 167.0$ 395,000$ 19

1/31/2012 268 97 36.19 PRICE BOTTOM >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 402 457,100$ 183.8$ 368,500$ 23

1/31/2013 205 120 58.54 SELLER'S 420 514,200$ 216.0$ 399,100$ 31

2010/2011 %chg -24% 24% 62% 4% 12% 18% 8% 35%

GRIGGS REPORT #129 - JANUARY 31, 2013

A TWICE MONTHLY REAL ESTATE MARKET PERSPECTIVE FOR NORTH KONA AND THE BIG ISLAND

Inventory continues to be tight with a 24% decline from last year. All other stats continue to show improvement from a year ago. Both Average and Median Price

continue to show increase in almost each report.

The pending ratio has taken its seasonal turn upward due to increased number of pending sales and stable or declining inventory.

$395 $400

$391

$375 $369 $369 $369

$365 $365

$373

$383 $385 $385 $385

$393 $399

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$340

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$360

$370

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$390

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$410

Chart 1 - Kona Residential Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years

Res-Median Price Res Pending Ratio

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$100,000

$200,000

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$400,000

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$700,000

CHART 2 - N. Kona Residential Median Price vs Number Sold Since 1997

Median Price Number Sold 12 Month Period

PAGE 1 NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA

ABOUT THE PENDING RATIO: The Pending Ratio is used throughout the report to serve as an indicator of Market Strength and Market Trend..

PENDING RATIO = NUMBER OF PENDING SALES DIVIDED BY ACTIVE LISTING TIMES 100 / THE HIGHER RATIO = STRONGER MARKET DEMAND.

Why it is a useful indicator:

1) It is a current leading indicator of market Demand vs. Supply Dynamics based on Listing and Pending Sale MLS Data. 2) It is a readily available useful indication or market strength when tract over time shows market trend.

The following Color Codes describe what the ratio numbers mean in terms of the type of market.

( This calibration is less accurate when there is an abnormal supply of distressed properties entering the market on a regular basis such as currently is the case. )

NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL DATA TABLE

CHART 2 - The growth in the number of home sales is remains relatively stable.

Page 2: Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

TABLE 2

KONA Residential NUMBER AVERAGE NUMBER AVERAGE PENDING VOL KONA RES NUMBER SOLD PENDING

PRICE RANGE ACTIVE PRICE PENDING PRICE MILLIONS 2012 2013 RATIO

TO 400,000$ 33 322,600$ 65 $304,800 19.8$ 232 214 196.97401,000$ $ 500,000 30 $ 452,900 21 $ 445,600 9.4$ 61 80 70.00501,000$ $ 700,000 38 $ 625,900 14 $ 600,000 8.4$ 52 57 36.84

$701,000 $ 900,000 34 $ 827,900 12 783,100$ 14.4$ 26 36 35.29 $ 901,000 $1,500,000 40 $ 1,165,300 5 $1,197,000 13.6$ 25 25 12.50$1.5M $ 4.0M 30 2,278,500$ 3 2,716,700$ 8.2$ 8 11 10.00

$4.001 M or GREATER 36 $ 7,833,800 5 9,189,000$ 45.9$ 19 12 13.89

TABLE 3

BIG ISLE

RES NUMBER LOW HIGH AVERAGE MEDIAN MODE VOLUME (M) PENDING

3-1 TO 3-4 ACTIVE 562 $25,500 $5,900,000 $374,694 $255,000 N/A 210.6$ RATIO

ALL EAST HI PENDING 186 $42,000 $1,995,000 $240,703 $175,000 N/A 44.8$

RESIDENTIAL SOLD YTD 46 $46,500 $575,000 $221,767 $200,500 $230,000 10.2$ 33.10

3-5 TO 3-9 ACTIVE 655 $19,600 $25,000,000 $1,257,135 $519,000 $695,000 $823

ALL WEST HI PENDING 230 $30,000 $11,900,000 $644,924 $368,500 $399,000 148.3$

RESIDENTIAL SOLD YTD 55 $50,000 $3,300,000 $468,814 $350,000 $350,000 25.8$ 35.11

ALL BIG ISLE ACTIVE 1217 $19,600 $25,000,000 $849,631 $369,000 $299,000 $1,034

ALL BIG ISLE PENDING 416 $30,000 $11,900,000 $464,190 $266,500 $299,000 193.1$ 34.18

ALL BIG ISLE SOLD YTD 101 $46,500 $3,300,000 $356,298 $282,500 $230,000 $ 36.0

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CHART 4 - West HI, East HI and Hawaii Island - Residential Pending Ratio over the Past Two Years

West Hawaii Ratio

East Hawaii Ratio

Big Is Res Ratio

TABLE 2 - The under $400,000 inventory now stands at only 33 homes. ....WOW! The over $4.0M market has had quite a lift in its seasonal sales with decline in

inventory and nice spike in pending sales of 5 homes. This is up from 0 one month ago. Pink "Buyers" market is only indicated in 3 price ranges now, all above

NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA

PAGE 2 NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE TABLE AND BIG ISLAND RESIDENTIAL LISTINGS, PENDING SALES AND SALES Year To Date

BIG ISLAND LISTING, PENDING SALES AND SALES YEAR TO DATE

214, 49%

80, 18%

57, 13%

36, 8%

25, 6%

11, 3% 12, 3%

CHART 3 - NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL NUMBER SOLD PAST 12 MONTHS

BY PRICE RANGE - Number, Percent of Total

TO $400,000

$401,000 $500,000

$501,000 $700,000

$701,000 $900,000

$901,000 $1,500,000

$1.5M $ 4.0M

$4.001 M or GREATER

CHART 4 - A seasonal increase in Pending Ratio is on cue with both East and West sides showing nice increase in Pending Ratio. Island wide inventory is down 17% from

1/31/12

NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA

NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA

NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE DATA

Page 3: Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

0.00%

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60.00%

CHART 5 - Percentage of Total MLS Active, Pending or 90 sales Listings that are Short Sales or REO

N. KONA 3-7

WAIKOLOA 3-6-8

WAIMEA 3-6-4,5,6

S HILO 3-2

PUNA 3-1

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01/31/12 02/29/12 03/31/12 04/30/12 05/31/12 06/30/12 07/31/12 08/31/12 09/30/12 10/31/12 11/30/12 12/31/12 01/31/13

# of REO Properties

Chart 6 - Number of REO Properties By District , Owned by:

Fed. National Mortgage Assn. (FANNIE MAE), Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo & Bank of America

Puna

S Hilo

S Kohala

N Kona

S Kona, Kau

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BIG ISLAND DISTRESSED RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES TREND

CHART 3: THIS CHART IS PROBABLY THE BEST INDICATOR OF THE ISLAND WIDE DESTRESSED PROPERTY TREND.

All market areas covered showed declines in the percentage of MLS listing that are either REO or Short Sales.

CHART 4: THIS CHART LOOKS AT THE FORECLOSURE TREND AS REFLECTED IN THE NUMBER OF Fannie Mae, Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo and

Bank of America OWNED PROPERTIES. MUCH OF THE DECLINE IS DUE THE PASSAGE OF ACT 48. THIS INCLUDES ALL PROPERTY TYPES, BUT IS

DOMINATED BY RESIDENTIAL.

By far the greatest number of REO's are in the Puna market area. Island wide the numbers haven't decline much since last summer. Current total is 75.

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Page 4: Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

TABLE 4 ACTIVE PENDING PENDING TYPE OF Number Sold AVERAGE VOLUME MEDIAN # SOLD

to $1.5M LISTINGS SALES RATIO MARKET 12 Month Period Price MILLIONS Price Last 30 days

1/31/1997 no data no data no data no data 310 139,700$ 43$ 126,000$ 24

1/31/1998 no data no data no data no data 312 128,700$ 40$ 108,500$ 20

1/31/1999 297 78 26.26 BUYER'S 370 131,200$ 49$ 115,000$ 41

1/31/2000 200 78 39.00 NEUTRAL 470 149,900$ 70$ 131,000$ 39

1/31/2001 154 62 40.26 NEUTRAL 483 169,500$ 82$ 137,500$ 30

1/31/2002 no data no data no data no data 391 188,800$ 74$ 150,000$ 24

1/31/2003 178 193 108.43 PEAK 500 208,400$ 104$ 183,000$ 52

1/31/2004 60 202 336.67 DEMAND PEAK 614 236,400$ 145$ 205,000$ 58

1/31/2005 112 202 180.36 PEAK 609 315,000$ 192$ 290,000$ 34

1/31/2006 279 72 25.81 BUYER'S 662 435,400$ 288$ 395,000$ 44

1/31/2007 407 45 11.06 PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 398 443,500$ 177$ 400,000$ 29

1/31/2008 413 26 6.30 BUYER'S 251 406,400$ 102$ 360,000$ 12

1/31/2009 367 19 5.18 DEMAND LOW 184 346,200$ 64$ 330,000$ 10

1/31/2010 300 65 21.67 BUYER'S 166 276,300$ 46$ 242,500$ 21

1/31/2011 234 60 25.64 BUYER'S 295 229,600$ 68$ 199,000$ 23

1/31/2012 176 61 34.66 PRICE LOW >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> 303 199,400$ 60$ 163,500$ 33

1/31/2013 147 65 44.22 NEUTRAL 322 224,900$ 72$ 187,300$ 23

2012/2013 %chg -16% 7% 28% 6% 13% 20% 15% -30%

9/30/1210/31/1211/30/1212/31/12

1/31/2013

$186 $180 $175

$172 $168 $165 $162

$165 $172 $171 $173 $175 $180 $187

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Chart 7 - Kona Condo Median Price( thous) & Pending Ratio - Past 2 Years

Median Price Condo Pending Ratio

PAGE 4

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$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

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$300,000

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CHART 8 NORTH KONA CONDO MEDIAN PRICE vs NUMBER SOLD

Number Sold 12Month Period

MEDIAN Price

CHART 7 - Like Residential the N. Kona condo inventory shows a Year over Year decline. Unlike residential the number pending sales and sales is not much different than

a year ago. Median price is up a healthy 15% percent now compared to median price in previous twelve months.

CHART 8 - Condo price appears to be on an increasing trend due to strong sales numbers and declining inventory.

Page 5: Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

TABLE 5 PENDING PENDING TYPE OF Number Sold Average VOLUME Median # SOLD

to $1.5M ACTIVE SALES RATIO MARKET 12 Month Period Price MILLIONS Price Last 30 days

1/31/1997 no data no data no data no data 89 212,200$ 18.9$ 135,000$ 3

1/31/1998 no data no data no data no data 142 194,700$ 27.6$ 125,000$ 11

1/31/1999 372 41 11.02 BUYER'S 141 147,800$ 20.8$ 100,000$ 13

1/31/2000 262 61 23.28 BUYER'S 229 157,900$ 36.2$ 116,000$ 20

1/31/2001 290 84 28.97 Neuatral 287 210,800$ 60.5$ 160,000$ 20

1/31/2002 no data no data no data no data 206 195,200$ 40.2$ 170,000$ 15

1/31/2003 187 88 47.06 Neuatral 294 199,500$ 58.7$ 155,000$ 19

1/31/2004 80 118 147.50 DEMAND PEAK 272 265,800$ 72.3$ 225,000$ 27

1/31/2005 55 43 78.18 Seller's 277 362,600$ 100.4$ 316,000$ 16

1/31/2006 127 39 30.71 BUYER'S 150 510,000$ 76.5$ 435,000$ 9

1/31/2007 198 17 8.59 PRICE PEAK >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>97 531,500$ 51.6$ 500,000$ 11

1/31/2008 267 13 4.87 BUYER'S 57 463,400$ 26.4$ 420,000$ 5

1/31/2009 236 12 5.08 DEMAND LOW 44 405,200$ 17.8$ 300,000$ 1

1/31/2010 292 15 5.14 BUYER'S 50 290,800$ 14.5$ 272,000$ 7

1/31/2011 193 11 5.70 BUYER'S 55 256,000$ 14.1$ 200,000$ 4

1/31/2012 187 8 4.28 PRICE BOTTOM >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>69 272,400$ 18.8$ 180,000$ 6

1/31/2013 198 24 12.12 BUYER'S 90 220,100$ 19.8$ 189,900$ 6

2012/2013 %chg 6% 200% 183% 30% -24% 6% 6% 0%

4/30/115/31/116/30/117/31/118/31/119/30/1110/31/1111/30/1112/31/111/31/122/29/123/31/124/30/125/31/126/30/127/31/128/31/129/30/1210/31/1211/30/1212/31/121/31/132/28/133/30/134/30/135/30/13

$199 $190

$184 $175

$189 $190 $178

$190

$215

$200

$183 $188 $189 $190

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Chart 9 - Kona Land Median Price (thous) & Pending Ratio Past 2 Years LAND-Median Price LAND Ratio

PAGE 6

Year over year stat's actual show an increase in inventory . The up side of this is there is also double the number of escrows and sales are up 24%.

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CHART 10 - NORTH KONA LAND MEDIAN PRICE vs NUMBER SOLD

Median Price

Number Sold 12Month Period

PAGE 5 NORTH KONA LAND DATA

Sales numbers and overall demand increase has not been enough to change the land markets price direction. Price seems to be relatively stable but not on increasing path

seen wtih Residential and Condos. There is still a substantial general over supply.

Page 6: Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

COLOR GUIDE FOR MARKET TYPE: PEAK SELLERS NEUTRAL BUYERS

TABLE 6 Average TO $400K $401K-$500K $501K-$700K$701K-$900K $901-$1.5M$1.501M-$4.0M

KONA RES KONA CND KONA LND All Three Big Is RES

1/31/2005 101.97 180.36 78.18 120.17

1/31/2006 39.15 25.8 30.71 31.89

1/31/2007 18.92 11.06 8.59 12.86

1/31/2008 17.15 6.30 4.87 9.44

1/31/2009 9.17 5.18 5.08 6.48 10.98 11.86 4.62 2.17 0

1/31/2010 20.65 21.67 5.14 15.82 18.87 52.38 27.27 11.11 4.76 10.45 10.13

1/31/2011 37.6 25.64 5.7 22.98 23.89 92.86 56.25 21.21 7.69 10.53 3.13

1/31/2012 36.19 34.66 4.28 25.04 25.03 124.07 48.48 12.90 13.89 2.08 2.86

2/29/2012 44.36 31.64 5.56 27.19 30.56 115.25 65.38 21.31 21.88 16.67 5.41

3/31/2012 47.01 34.83 5.64 29.16 30.56 121.05 70.97 21.43 24.24 14.63 3.13

4/30/2012 47.76 43.45 5.95 32.39 32.83 120.34 63.33 20.37 25 10.26 12.9

5/31/2012 51.72 53.5 6.19 37.14 33.72 148 65.52 18.75 30 12 5.86/30/2012 53.7 43.37 14.22 37.10 33.28 169.77 67.86 20.83 23.33 16.22 3.337/31/2012 52.09 38.46 12.50 34.35 34.17 180.00 41.94 17.65 44.00 13.16 6.678/31/2012 50.23 41.72 15.38 35.78 34.19 180.49 30.56 18.33 57.14 5.41 3.709/30/2012 57.55 44.93 7.41 36.63 37.93 168.18 86.67 24.07 33.33 5.26 8.0010/31/2012 60.30 35.66 10.17 35.38 36.25 160.87 82.14 32.56 25.00 5.13 4.1711/30/2012 62.25 37.16 10.99 36.80 35.90 178.00 82.14 45.00 21.43 15.38 3.5712/31/2012 53.62 32.89 9.09 31.87 32.03 186.11 58.62 31.71 19.35 15.00 6.671/31/2013 58.54 44.22 12.12 38.29 34.18 196.97 70.00 36.84 35.29 12.50 10.00

12' vs 13' 61.76% 27.58% 183.18% 52.91% 36.56% 58.76% 44.39% 185.58% 154.07% 500.96% 249.65%

TABLE # 6 - Higher Ratio = Stronger Market. BIG ISLAND PENDING RATIO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS AT NEW HIGH. Year over Year improvement is substantial in all catagories except Kona Condos is only slightly improved from a year ago. Notice as the recovery progresses the increasing Pending Ratios in Residential Price Ranges spreads to higher price levels. Three yea r ago all price range colomns were pink with the exception for under $400,000.

KONA RES , CONDO, LND & BIG IS PENDING RATIO TRENDS KONA RESIDENTIAL PRICE RANGE PENDING RATIO'S

PAGE 6 SUMMARY TABLE OF PENDING RATIO TRENDS FOR NORTH KONA RESIDENTIAL, CONDO AND LAND , BIG ISLAND RESIDENTIAL AND

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CHART 6 - Kona Residential and Condo Pending Ratios for the past 12 Months

KONA RES

KONA CND

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250.00Chart 7 - North Kona Residential Pending Ratio by Price Range

TO $400K

$401K-$500K

$501K-$700K

$701K-$900K

$901-$1.5M

$1.501M-$4.0M

Chart 7 - As mentioned the year over year improvement is substantial. The year end and first two weeks of the new year are fairly flat. We should expect this to change

fairly dramatically going forward?

Page 7: Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

COUNTY KONA LA VEGAS SAN DIEGO SAN FRAN PORTLAND,O SANTA FE, NM

POPULATION 2010 33,300 9.819M 1.95M 3.095M 805,000 2.260M 144,170 Realtor.com - Market Area KONA LA VEGAS SAN DIEGO SAN FRAN PORTLAND SANTA FE, NM

Peak Inventory Date Mar-09 Aug-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 Oct-08 Aug-08 Aug-08Inventory PEAK 475 6875 16423 4302 949 5992 1797

Inventory 12 months ago to date 268 3918 13011 2240 416 2658 1073CURRENT INVENTORY 205 2124 9903 1233 262 1933 956% Change 12 months -23.51% -45.79% -23.89% -44.96% -37.02% -27.28% -10.90%

% CHANGE FROM PEAK TO CURRENT -56.84% -69.11% -39.70% -71.34% -72.39% -67.74% -46.80%

DATE1/15/061/30/062/18/063/3/06

3/16/063/31/064/15/065/15/065/30/066/19/066/30/067/14/067/29/068/13/069/19/0610/1/06

10/18/0611/1/06

11/15/0612/2/06

12/31/061/15/071/31/072/16/073/1/07

3/18/073/31/074/16/074/29/075/15/075/31/076/15/077/1/07

7/16/077/31/078/14/078/31/079/14/079/30/07

10/15/0710/31/0711/15/0712/1/07

12/15/07

12/31/07

1/15/08

1/31/08

2/15/08

2/29/08

TABLE 1 - KONA & WEST COAST CITIES RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY - January 31, 2013

CURRENT DQNEWS.COM HEADLINES RELATED TO CALIFORNIA MARKETS: SEE FULL STORY ON WEBSITE - DQNews.com 1) An estimated 39,760 new and resale houses and condos sold statewide last month, up 6.1 percent from 37,481 in November, and u p 5.4 percent from 37,734 sales in December 2011 2) The pace at which the Bay Area housing market is making up for lost ground quickened at the end of 2012 as sales increase d year-over-year for the 18th month in a row and the median price rose at its fastest rate in more than 25 years. The market remained constrained by a tight supply of homes for sale and a fussy home loan environment interest 3) The number of Golden State homes sold for a million dollars or more rose to its highest level since 2007, fueled by a rec overing economy, rising home prices and a record number of cash purchases. The number of homes sold for more than $5 million rose to an all -time high 4) The number of California homeowners pushed into the foreclosure process fell last quarter to the lowest level in six years, t he result of rising home values, an improving economy and a shift toward short sales .

5)The number of California homes purchased with cash reached an all -time high last year, the result of high investor interest, a difficult mortgage environment, and perceived higher returns on

TABLE & CHART 1 COMMENTS: Declining inventory trend continues in Kona and all other market areas on the West Coast followe d in this report.

The inventory on the West Coast are showing the typical season decline couple by sharp Year over Year declines. Kona's i nventory decline is not at the pace of the CA metro's. San Diego and

San Francisco showing very sharp declines.

DQNEWS.COM comments below the Price chart indicate the Bay Area price appreciation greatest in 25 years at 20% Year over Yea r.

Data is residential listing inventory from REALTOR.COM

CHART 1 - Single Family Residential Inventory - KONA , SAN FRANCISCO, SAN DIEGO & L A

KONA SAN FRAN SAN DIEGO L A

PRICE TREND COMMENTS: Each of the 20 cities in the Case Shiller study as of September shows price increase over the past 12 months. * Kona home price data from Hawaii Information Service and is Median Price. * San Diego , LA and San Francisco is a home price index from Case Shiller Home Price index.

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

$340,000

$350,000

$360,000

$370,000

$380,000

$390,000

$400,000

$410,000

Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13

San

Die

go &

L.A

. Ho

me

Pri

ces

Ind

ex

Ko

na

Ho

me

Pri

ce

CHART 2 - Three Year Price Trend for Kona, San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco

KONA San Diego L A San Francisco

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Page 8: Big Island Real Esate Report-january-31-2013 Statistics, Trends, Sales, Kona

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DATA TABULATED BY: MICHAEL B. GRIGGS, R, CRA, GRI , Clark Realty Corporation

THANK YOU FOR YOUR WORDS OF ENCOURAGEMENT, SUGGESTIONS AND COMMENTS THAT CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THE REPORT-

Mike Griggs - [email protected] cell ph. 808 936-8134

ALL HAWAII DATA HAS BEEN COLLECTED FROM MLS HAWAII, HAWAII INFORMATION SERVICE, REALTORS.COM AND OTHER SOURCES NAMED IN THE REPORT.

NOTES:

1) PAGE 1- TABLE 1 - RESIDENTIAL DATA COLLECTED IS LIMITED TO $4M AND UNDER PRICE RANGE IN ORDER TO SCREEN OUT RECENT HIGH END ACTIVITY AT KUKIO

AND HUALALAI RESORT AREA'S. SIMILARLY THE CONDO AND LAND DATA HAS AN UPPER LIMIT OF $1.5M.

2) NUMBER SOLD, AVERAGE PRICE AND MEDIAN PRICE IS DATA IS FROM A MOVING 12 MONTH PERIOD. UPDATED EVERY TWO WEEKS THIS I S A VERY ACCURATE METHOD OF TRACKING THE SALES PRICE TRENDS. 3) THE PENDING RATIO MAYBE A GOOD LEADING INDICATOR OF MARKET STRENGTH AND PRICE DIRECTION. THE MARKET TYPE DESIGNATION, EG. SELLER, BUYER

MARKET, NEUTRAL AND PEAK IS BASED ON CALIBRATION IS USING PENDING RATIO DATA IN THE PAST MARKET CYCLE.

3) PAGE 1-TABLES 1 , 2 and 3 REPRESENTS THE ENTIRE NORTH KONA MARKET. IT SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED TO BE AN INDICATOR OF THE MARKET CONDITION IN

ALL SUBMARKETS WITHIN THE MARKET AREA OR FOR DIFFERENT MARKET AREAS ON THE ISLAND.

MICHAEL B. GRIGGS, RB AND CLARK REALTY CORPORATION ASSUMES NO RESPONSIBILITY FOR IT'S USE BY OTHERS. YOUR ARE WELCOME TO SHARE THE REPORT WITH

OTHERS. MAHALO!

USEFUL WEBSITES:

A www. dqnews.com/ - Western metros sales data and trends.

B. www.housingtracker.net - Listing inventory and average list prices for 52 large cities. C. www. nahb.org - National Association of Home Builders.

D.www.mbaa.org - Mortgage Bankers Association - loan activity and loan forecasts.

E. www.fhfa.gov - Federal Housing Finance Agency - GOVERNMENT DATA ON HOUSING MARKET

F. Google search - "Case-Shiller Home Price Indices"

G. www.realtytimes.com - Real Estate Agents perspective of local markets.

H. www.realtor.org - NAR - Select "News Media" and look for "Economic Housing Indicators". I. www.hawaii.gov/dbedt - Dept. of Business and Economic Development

J. www.federalreserve.gov

K. www.eia.doe.gov - Energy Information Agency - Oil and Gas prices and forecasts.

L. www.hawaii-county.com/info/stats.html - Hawaii County statistics. Updates monthly.

M. www.uhero.hawaii.edu/ Very good Hawaii State Economic reports

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