Arkansas’ Rice Situation and Outlook - Delta Farm Press C... · 2009 1,470,000 2008 1,395,000 ......
45
Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor – Economics Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Division of Agriculture Cooperative Extension Service University of Arkansas System Arkansas’ Rice Situation and Outlook Presented at 2017 USA National Rice Outlook Conference San Antonio, Texas – December 10-12, 2017 12.13.17 B
Transcript of Arkansas’ Rice Situation and Outlook - Delta Farm Press C... · 2009 1,470,000 2008 1,395,000 ......
Bobby Coats, Ph.D. Professor – EconomicsDepartment of Agricultural Economics and AgribusinessDivision of AgricultureCooperative Extension ServiceUniversity of Arkansas System
Arkansas’ Rice Situation and OutlookPresented at 2017 USA National Rice Outlook ConferenceSan Antonio, Texas – December 10-12, 2017
12.13.17 B
Arkansas’ Rice Situation and Outlook
Arkansas’ All Rice Harvested Acres, 1950 to 2017
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,00019
50
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
1981=1540
2007=1325
NASS Estimate2010=1785
1996= 1170
2017 – 1,093,000 Acres, 28% < 2016, Failed 51,179, Prevented Planted 218,791
Without Weather & Global Economic Issues Potential Total Acreage Including Failed and Prevented = 1,362,970
308
2017 1,093,0002016 1,521,0002015 1,291,0002014 1,480,0002013 1,070,0002012 1,285,0002011 1,154,0002010 1,785,0002009 1,470,0002008 1,395,000
Arkansas All Rice Yield Per Acre, 1950 to 20172017 Yield 7400 lbs. (164 bus.) – 4th Highest on Record
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
NASS Estimate
1996=6150 lbs, 137 bus
7% above 2016’s ‐ 6920 lbs. (154 bus.)
0
2017 7,4002016 6,9202015 7,3402014 7,5602013 7,5602012 7,4802011 6,7702010 6,4802009 6,8002008 6,660
Arkansas All Rice Production, 1950 to 20172017’s 81 million cwt.
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,00019
50
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
1981=69.61
2005=108.8
NASS Estimate
2010=115.7
Previous 5 yr. = 97.8, 10 = 97.1, 15 average = 98.6, (98 million cwt.)
0
2017 80,882,0002016 105,314,0002015 94,710,0002014 111,957,0002013 80,888,0002012 96,109,0002011 78,100,0002010 115,675,0002009 99,924,0002008 92,938,000
2017’s production 17 million cwt. below average 98 million cwt
ArkansasCountyHarvestedAcres
60,015 (17)90,192 (16)86,669 (15)95,000 (14)75,700 (13)91,700 (12)92,800 (11)
Rice = blue Soybeans = green
Arkansas County
Stuttgart
Arkansas Long Grain Rice
Arkansas Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres, 1972 to 20172017: 945,000 acres ‐ 445,000 acres (32%) below 2016’s 1,390,000 acres
325,00
038
5,00
056
1,00
066
0,00
069
6,00
069
0,00
090
8,00
088
1,00
01,06
2,00
01,29
3,00
01,13
4,00
078
6,00
01,02
4,00
097
9,00
093
5,00
087
6,00
01,07
5,00
01,03
0,00
01,07
1,00
01,11
1,00
01,23
0,00
01,07
0,00
01,20
0,00
01,14
0,00
091
0,00
01,16
0,00
01,28
3,00
01,37
4,00
01,13
0,00
01,47
2,00
01,34
0,00
01,29
0,00
01,40
0,00
01,53
3,00
01,29
5,00
01,18
0,00
01,29
5,00
01,24
5,00
01,59
0,00
091
0,00
01,17
0,00
095
0,00
01,26
5,00
01,05
0,00
01,39
0,00
094
5,00
0
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
NASS Estimate
1981 to 2017 average 1,171,833 acres, 6 year average 1,122,500 acres
43
Previous Six Year Average = 1,123,000 acres178‐thousand below previous 6 year average
1
3 top years1,275,000
Arkansas Long Grain Rice Production, 1972 to 20172017’s Preliminary Estimate 70 million cwt.
2nd Lowest in the Current 7 Production Periods16
,006
,000
18,095
,000
25,105
,000
29,370
,000
32,538
,000
28,463
,000
39,952
,000
37,443
,000
42,480
,000
57,280
,000
47,608
,000
33,012
,000
46,320
,000
50,712
,000
49,462
,000
45,259
,000
57,447
,000
57,458
,000
53,034
,000
58,328
,000
66,912
,000
53,928
,000
68,160
,000
61,218
,000
55,055
,000
65,192
,000
73,644
,000
79,417
,000
68,478
,000
93,178
,000
86,162
,000
85,140
,000
97,720
,000
101,94
5,00
089
,485
,000
85,314
,000
85,988
,000
84,162
,000
102,71
4,00
061
,516
,000 87,750
,000
71,820
,000
95,761
,000
77,490
,000
96,466
,000
69,930
,000
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,00019
72
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Preliminary Estimate
0
< 5,000
5,000 to 9,999
10,000 to 24,999
25,000 to 49,999
50,000 to 74,999
75,000 to 99,999
100,000 to 124,999
125,000 +
YELL
33
BENTON CARROLL BOONE
MARION
27LAFAYETTE
INDEPENDENCE
24
BAXTER FULTON RANDOLPH
17CLAY
8
GREENE
3
CRAIGHEAD
10MISSISSIPPI
11
POINSETT
4
CROSS
9
CRITTENDEN
14
ST. FRANCIS
16
LEE
23
PHILLIPS
20
DESHA
21
CHICOT
18ASHLEY
28
DREW
22
LINCOLN
19
ARKANSAS
5JEFFERSON
7
CLEVELAND
BRADLEY
CALHOUN
UNIONCOLUMBIA
MILLER
34
LITTLE RIVER
38
SEVIER
HOWARD
HEMPSTEADNEVADA
PIKECLARK
30 DALLAS
HOT SPRING
36GRANT
OUACHITA
POLK MONTGOMERYGARLAND SALINE
SCOTT
PERRY
31
PULASKI
25LONOKE
1PRAIRIE
12 MONROE
15
WHITE
26
WOODRUFF
13
CLEBURNEVAN BUREN
POPE
29
FAULKNER
35
CONWAY
32LOGAN
JOHNSON
SEBASTIAN
CRAWFORD
WASHINGTON
FRANKLIN
37
MADISONNEWTON SEARCY
STONE
IZARD SHARPLAWRENCE
2
JACKSON
6
Ranking 2017 Arkansas Long Grain Rice Producing CountiesTop 4 AR Long Grain Rice Counties by Harvested Acreage
• Top 4 Long Grain Counties– Lonoke 77,342– Lawrence 74,529– Greene 64,904– Poinsett 62,922
4
Arkansas Medium Grain Rice
Arkansas Medium Grain Rice Harvested Acres, 1972 to 20172017 ‐ 147,000 acres
113,00
014
2,00
013
7,00
0 203,00
013
1,00
012
8,00
015
0,00
011
0,00
019
4,00
022
3,00
017
5,00
012
1,00
012
2,00
069
,500
84,000 13
2,00
013
4,00
010
9,00
012
8,00
014
8,00
014
9,00
015
7,00
0 218,00
019
8,00
0 258,00
022
8,00
020
0,00
024
9,00
027
8,00
014
8,00
016
2,00
016
4,00
015
4,00
010
1,00
010
4,00
014
4,00
099
,000
224,00
019
4,00
0 243,00
011
4,00
011
9,00
021
4,00
024
0,00
013
0,00
014
7,00
0
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
NASS Estimate
Previous 16 year average 159,625
0
Arkansas Medium Grain Rice Production, 1972 to 20172017 – 11 Million cwt. – 24% greater than 2016
5,76
3,00
06,95
8,00
06,95
3,00
09,54
1,00
06,71
4,00
06,01
6,00
06,93
7,00
05,28
6,00
09,07
3,00
011
,094
,000
8,40
0,00
05,78
4,00
06,40
0,00
03,80
9,00
04,54
4,00
07,65
6,00
07,23
6,00
06,32
2,00
06,91
2,00
08,39
2,00
08,94
0,00
08,00
7,00
0 12,666
,000
11,682
,000 16
,770
,000
13,908
,000
12,400
,000
15,513
,000
17,514
,000
9,62
0,00
010
,530
,000
10,988
,000
10,780
,000
6,78
7,00
07,02
0,00
010
,440
,000
6,89
0,00
015
,702
,000
12,901
,000
16,524
,000
8,29
9,00
09,00
8,30
016
,136
,000
17,160
,000
8,78
8,00
010
,878
,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,00019
72
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Preliminary Estimates
1
< 5,000
5,000 to 9,999
10,000 to 24,999
25,000 to 49,999
50,000 to 74,999
75,000 to 99,999
100,000 to 124,999
125,000 +
Ranking 2017 Arkansas Medium Grain Rice Producing CountiesTop 3 AR Medium Grain Rice Counties by Harvested Acreage
YELL
BENTON CARROLL BOONE
MARION
LAFAYETTE
INDEPENDENCE
17
BAXTER FULTON RANDOLPH
8CLAY
5
GREENE
15
CRAIGHEAD
6MISSISSIPPI
16
CRITTENDEN
9
POINSETT
1
CROSS
4
ST. FRANCIS
12
LEE
19
PHILLIPS
21
DESHA
11
CHICOT
20ASHLEY
DREW
LINCOLN
ARKANSAS
10JEFFERSON
22
CLEVELAND
BRADLEY
CALHOUN
UNIONCOLUMBIA
MILLER
LITTLE RIVER
SEVIER
HOWARD
HEMPSTEADNEVADA
PIKECLARK
DALLAS
HOT SPRING GRANT
OUACHITA
POLK MONTGOMERYGARLAND SALINE
SCOTT
PERRY
PULASKI LONOKE
14PRAIRIE
7 MONROE
13
WHITE
18
WOODRUFF
11
CLEBURNEVAN BUREN
POPE
FAULKNER
CONWAY
LOGAN
JOHNSON
SEBASTIAN
CRAWFORD
WASHINGTON
FRANKLIN
MADISONNEWTON SEARCY
STONE
IZARD SHARPLAWRENCE
3
JACKSON
2
• Top 3 Medium Grain Counties– Poinsett 28,819– Jackson 19,078– Lawrence 13,791
3
The Year AheadBuild a Foundation for 2018
Arkansas Acreage and Production Outlook
WORLD RICEUSDA SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATESNOVEMBER 2017
15
WORLD RICE AREA HARVESTED 1987/88-2017/18
141
.414
6.6
147.
814
7.0
147.
614
6.4
145
.3 147.
314
8.3 15
0.2
151.
715
3.3 15
5.8
152
.815
1.6
147.
6 149
.5 151.
4 154
.215
4.6
154
.915
8.5
155
.8 158
.315
9.8
159
.6 161
.916
1.0
159
.516
0.7
160
.0
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
1651
98
7/8
8
19
89
/90
19
91
/92
19
93
/94
19
95
/96
19
97
/98
19
99
/00
20
01
/02
20
03
/04
20
05
/06
20
07
/08
20
09
/10
20
11
/12
20
13
/14
20
15
/16
20
17
/18
Millions of Hectares
Source: USDA
• World rice acreage at 160 million hectares • 2nd lowest in current 5 production periods
16
WORLD RICE YIELD (ROUGH) 1987/88-2017/183
.33
.3 3.5
3.5
3.5 3
.63
.6 3.7
3.7 3
.83
.83
.8 3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8 3
.93
.9 4.0
4.0 4
.24
.24
.24
.2 4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4 4
.54
.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
51
98
7/8
8
19
89
/90
19
91
/92
19
93
/94
19
95
/96
19
97
/98
19
99
/00
20
01
/02
20
03
/04
20
05
/06
20
07
/08
20
09
/10
20
11
/12
20
13
/14
20
15
/16
20
17
/18
Metric Tons
Source: USDA
• World rice yield at 4.5 metric tons per hectare • Consistent with last year
17
WORLD RICE MILLED PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION 1988/89-2017/18
33
2.1 34
5.3
351
.43
53
.33
53
.93
54
.73
64
.13
68
.83
80
.43
87.4
39
4.9 40
9.3
39
9.2
39
9.4
378
.1 39
2.5
40
0.8 41
7.9
42
0.1 43
3.6 44
9.9
44
0.0
45
0.1 4
67.
447
3.5
478
.547
9.2
472
.64
86
.64
81.2
250
300
350
400
450
5001
98
8/8
9
19
90
/91
19
92
/93
19
94
/95
19
96
/97
19
98
/99
20
00
/01
20
02
/03
20
04
/05
20
06
/07
20
08
/09
20
10
/11
20
12
/13
20
14
/15
20
16
/17
Millions of Metric Tons
Source: USDA 18
• 17/18 World rice milled production at 481 million metric tons, 2nd highest on record• World rice milled consumption at 480 million metric tons, 2nd highest on record• World rice production exceeded consumption current 11 marketing periods
WORLD RICE TRADE YEAR EXPORTS CALENDAR 1987/88-2017/18
11.4 14
.011
.71
2.3 14
.414
.9 16.6
20
.819
.71
8.9
27.6
24.8
22
.8 24.3
27.9
27.5
27.3 28
.92
9.0 31
.82
9.6
29
.4 31.8
36
.54
0.0
39
.54
4.1
42
.64
0.1
45
.74
5.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
501
98
7/8
8
19
89
/90
19
91
/92
19
93
/94
19
95
/96
19
97
/98
19
99
/00
20
01
/02
20
03
/04
20
05
/06
20
07
/08
20
09
/10
20
11
/12
20
13
/14
20
15
/16
20
17
/18
Millions of Metric Tons
Source: USDA
• World trade at 45.1 million metric tons, 2nd highest on record• Global reflation providing a more bullish trade bias for 2018
19
WORLD RICE ENDING STOCKS 1987/88-2017/18
105
.311
1.6 12
0.6
12
6.6
12
6.7
12
3.1
118
.911
7.6
118
.11
20
.31
27.7
13
4.0 14
3.1
146
.71
32
.910
3.0
81.7
74.0
76.5
75
.4 80
.99
3.2
95
.2 99
.9 109
.1 118
.71
22
.01
27.8
13
2.6
13
8.1
13
8.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1601
98
7/8
8
19
89
/90
19
91
/92
19
93
/94
19
95
/96
19
97
/98
19
99
/00
20
01
/02
20
03
/04
20
05
/06
20
07
/08
20
09
/10
20
11
/12
20
13
/14
20
15
/16
20
17
/18
Millions of Metric Tons
Source: USDA
• World rice ending stocks at 138.9 million metric tons • Highest since 2001/02 • All implying we may not need to be conservative in our AR acreage expansion planswithout an additional known demand source
20
U.S. LONG-GRAIN RICEUSDA SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATESNOVEMBER 2017
21
U.S. LONG GRAIN RICE BEGINNING STOCKS 1982/83 – 2017/1817
.625
.816
.437
.749
.327
.419
.115
.413
.211
.5 13.0
21.6
15.1
14.4
10.1
14.1
14.5
14.1 15
.611
.626
.815
.710
.322
.732
.728
.519
.1 20.0 23
.035
.624
.321
.916
.226
.522
.728
.727
.731
.531
.331
.031
.031
.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
6082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
18
Feb,
18
Mar
, 18
Apr
, 18
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
22
• 2017/18 long grain rice beginning stocks at 31.0 million cwt.• Previous 5 year average was 22 million cwt. • Previous 10 year average was 24 million cwt.
U.S. LONG GRAIN RICE PRODUCTION 1982/83 – 2017/1893
.464
.396
.0 100.
496
.889
.011
9.4
109.
210
7.8
109.
112
8.0
103.
113
3.4
121.
711
3.6 12
4.5
139.
3 151.
912
8.8
167.
615
7.2
149.
017
0.4 177.
514
7.1
143.
2 153.
315
2.7
183.
311
6.4
144.
313
1.9
162.
713
3.4
166.
514
2.0
142.
013
6.4
132.
412
7.1
126.
312
6.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
18
Feb,
18
Mar
, 18
Apr
, 18
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
23
• 2017/18 long grain rice production is estimated at 126.1 million cwt• 20.5% below 2016/17• 5 year average 148 million cwt• 10 year average 149 million cwt
U.S. LONG GRAIN RICE TOTAL SUPPLY 1982/83 – 2017/1811
1.5
90.7
113.
814
0.1 148.
511
9.1
141.
912
8.6
125.
312
5.3
146.
413
0.6
155.
414
2.5
132.
9 146.
5 162.
2 173.
515
3.1
188.
319
4.1
174.
5 191.
321
2.5
194.
018
9.4
188.
218
9.3
222.
216
8.9
187.
317
4.2
200.
618
0.7
209.
419
1.7
190.
718
8.9
184.
717
9.1
178.
317
8.5
0
50
100
150
200
25082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
18
Feb,
18
Mar
, 18
Apr
, 18
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
24
• 2017/18 long grain rice total supply is estimated at 178.5 million cwt. • 15-percent below 2016/17 • 5 year average 190 million cwt.• 10 year average 191 million cwt.
U.S. LONG GRAIN RICE TOTAL EXPORTS 1982/83 – 2017/1847
.044
.842
.042
.069
.950
.571
.060
.861
.655
.669
.857
.081
.465
.557
.472
.371
.470
.365
.373
.899
.580
.7 83.8
92.0
72.0
79.1
68.0
74.3 78
.066
.775
.861
.968
.075
.9 78.7
76.0
77.0
77.0
77.0
75.0
75.0
74.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
12082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
18
Feb,
18
Mar
, 18
Apr
, 18
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
25
• 2017/18 long grain rice total exports is estimated at 74 million cwt, • 4.7 million cwt. below last year• 5 year average 72• 10 year average 73
U.S. LONG GRAIN RICE ENDING STOCKS 1982/83 – 2017/1825
.816
.437
.749
.327
.419
.115
.413
.211
.5 13.0
21.6
15.1
14.4
10.1
14.1
14.5
14.1 15
.611
.626
.815
.710
.322
.732
.728
.519
.0 20.1
23.0
35.6
24.3
21.9
16.2
26.5
22.7
31.0
20.7
18.7 19
.917
.716
.115
.3 16.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
6082 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
May
, 17
June
, 17
July
, 17
Aug
, 17
Sept
, 17
Oct
, 17
Nov
, 17
Dec
, 17
Jan,
18
Feb,
18
Mar
, 18
Apr
, 18
Source: USDA
Million hundredweight
26
• 2017/18 long grain rice ending stocks are estimated at 16.5 million cwt.• 47-percent below 2016/17, 2nd lowest in the previous 13 marketing periods• 5 year average 23.7 million cwt. • 10 year average 24 million cwt. • Potentially bullish for 2018 prices unless we overproduce
2018 Market Outlook
Policy Drivers KeyTo Understanding
Key to Drivers
Present Global Governments and Central Banks
Intervention Policy Strategies
• US and Global economic momentum heavily dependent on Fiscal, Monetary, Trade and Regulatory Policy actions of • U.S. and Global Governments and Central Banks
• Present policy course adequate to overcome:• Chronic global slow growth• Low to negative interest rates
Current Policies likely extends the business cycle one possibly two to three years and avoids a near term US and Global recession
4
“What is the Market Impact”Intervention by Governments and Central Banks
• Near Term or First half of 2018 (chart pattern dependent on global stability)
• Bonds: Duration dependent, but yields sideways-to-up• 10-Year US Treasury Yield today at 2.37 and ends 2018
at 2.85 and higher in 2019 • Dow Jones Industrial Average, grinds higher with
consolidation and/or correction periods, with more price strength than weakness
• EFA Global Equities – excluding U.S. and Canada, continues building momentum
• EEM Emerging Markets, continues building momentum critically important for healthy commodity prices
4
“What is the Market Impact”• Near Term or 2018 (chart pattern dependent on global
stability)
• $CRB Index, Commodity Index, Aggressive Government and Central Bank intervention policies will continue elevating economic activity and commodity prices in the aggregate
• $WTIC Light Crude Oil, a complex market having more strength than weakness in 2018, thus positive for the commodity sector
• $USD US Dollar Index – more weakness than strength • Commodities, land, fine arts, etc. new highs following
equities up• Corn, soybeans and wheat build a base and have more
price strength than weakness in the first half of 2018, due to global growth, value, concern over anomaly uncertainties, like weather, military friction, etc.
4
325,00
038
5,00
056
1,00
066
0,00
069
6,00
069
0,00
0 908,00
088
1,00
01,06
2,00
01,29
3,00
01,13
4,00
078
6,00
0 1,02
4,00
097
9,00
093
5,00
087
6,00
01,07
5,00
01,03
0,00
01,07
1,00
01,11
1,00
01,23
0,00
01,07
0,00
01,20
0,00
01,14
0,00
091
0,00
0 1,16
0,00
01,28
3,00
01,37
4,00
01,13
0,00
0 1,47
2,00
01,34
0,00
01,29
0,00
01,40
0,00
01,53
3,00
01,29
5,00
01,18
0,00
01,29
5,00
01,24
5,00
0 1,59
0,00
091
0,00
0 1,17
0,00
095
0,00
0 1,26
5,00
01,04
5,00
0 1,39
0,00
094
5,00
01,17
3,00
0
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
1,600,00019
72
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2018 Arkansas Long Grain Rice Harvested Acreage Expectation2018 acreage range 1,086,750 to 1,173,000 acres (2017 = 945,000) or 15% to 24.1% increase
2011
to 12 >2
9%
2013
to 14 >3
3%
2015
to 16 >3
3%
2017
to 18 >2
4%
• 2018 long grain rice acreage increase needs to remain in a range of 15% to 24% increase
• Reality is with no new demand [and if LG rice harvested acreage exceeds a 15% increase over 2017 acreage or 1,086,750 acres] one should expect increasingly downward pressure on LG rice prices, so plan accordingly
Arkansas Long Grain Rice Production, 1972 to 2018
16,006
,000
18,095
,000
25,105
,000
29,370
,000
32,538
,000
28,463
,000
39,952
,000
37,443
,000
42,480
,000
57,280
,000
47,608
,000
33,012
,000
46,320
,000
50,712
,000
49,462
,000
45,259
,000
57,447
,000
57,458
,000
53,034
,000
58,328
,000
66,912
,000
53,928
,000
68,160
,000
61,218
,000
55,055
,000
65,192
,000
73,644
,000
79,417
,000
68,478
,000
93,178
,000
86,162
,000
85,140
,000
97,720
,000
101,94
5,00
089
,485
,000
85,314
,000
85,988
,000
84,162
,000
102,71
4,00
061
,516
,000 87,750
,000
71,820
,000
95,761
,000
77,490
,000
96,466
,000
69,930
,000
86,802
,000
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,00019
72
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Preliminary Estimate
2018’s Preliminary Estimate of 87 million cwt.4th largest since 2011
2
Assuming 2018 1,173,000 harvested acres
Arkansas Long Grain Rice Production, 1972 to 2018
16,006
,000
18,095
,000
25,105
,000
29,370
,000
32,538
,000
28,463
,000
39,952
,000
37,443
,000
42,480
,000
57,280
,000
47,608
,000
33,012
,000
46,320
,000
50,712
,000
49,462
,000
45,259
,000
57,447
,000
57,458
,000
53,034
,000
58,328
,000
66,912
,000
53,928
,000
68,160
,000
61,218
,000
55,055
,000
65,192
,000
73,644
,000
79,417
,000
68,478
,000
93,178
,000
86,162
,000
85,140
,000
97,720
,000
101,94
5,00
089
,485
,000
85,314
,000
85,988
,000
84,162
,000
102,71
4,00
061
,516
,000
87,750
,000
71,820
,000
95,761
,000
77,490
,000
96,466
,000
69,930
,000
86,802
,000
96,200
,000
103,60
0,00
011
1,00
0,00
011
8,40
0,00
0
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,00019
72
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
1.3 Mil
1.5 Mil
2
2018 estimated harvested acres = 1,173,000 & production 86.8Without new demand higher production increasingly bearish prices2018 estimated harvested acres = 1,300,000 & production 96.22018 estimated harvested acres = 1,400,000 & production 103.62018 estimated harvested acres = 1,500,000 & production 1112018 estimated harvested acres = 1,600,000 & production 118.4
These production levels given present fundamentals would be increasingly bearish for LG rice prices
113,00
014
2,00
013
7,00
0 203,00
013
1,00
012
8,00
015
0,00
011
0,00
019
4,00
022
3,00
017
5,00
012
1,00
012
2,00
069
,500
84,000 13
2,00
013
4,00
010
9,00
012
8,00
014
8,00
014
9,00
015
7,00
0 218,00
019
8,00
0 258,00
022
8,00
020
0,00
0 249,00
027
8,00
014
8,00
016
2,00
016
4,00
015
4,00
010
1,00
010
4,00
014
4,00
099
,000
224,00
019
4,00
0 243,00
011
4,00
011
9,00
021
4,00
024
0,00
013
0,00
014
7,00
016
9,00
0
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,00019
72
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
1
5,76
3,00
06,95
8,00
06,95
3,00
09,54
1,00
06,71
4,00
06,01
6,00
06,93
7,00
05,28
6,00
09,07
3,00
011
,094
,000
8,40
0,00
05,78
4,00
06,40
0,00
03,80
9,00
04,54
4,00
07,65
6,00
07,23
6,00
06,32
2,00
06,91
2,00
08,39
2,00
08,94
0,00
08,00
7,00
0 12,666
,000
11,682
,000 16
,770
,000
13,908
,000
12,400
,000
15,513
,000
17,514
,000
9,62
0,00
010
,530
,000
10,988
,000
10,780
,000
6,78
7,00
07,02
0,00
010
,440
,000
6,89
0,00
015
,702
,000
12,901
,000
16,524
,000
8,29
9,00
09,00
8,30
016
,136
,000
17,160
,000
8,78
8,00
010
,878
,000
12,506
,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,00019
72
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
1
Assuming 2018 169,000 harvested acres
Concluding Thoughts
4
U.S. and Global Governments and Central Banks
• Present domestic and global policy adequate to overcome:• Chronic global slow growth• Low to negative interest rates
(Assumes social, political, trade and military stability)Policy intervention should enhance 2018 Global Inflationary ForcesSupporting rice and grain prices• Assuming no major over-production. Over-
production would be bearish pushing prices back toward 2016/17 season’s lows
Concluding Thoughts
4
U.S. and Global Governments and Central Banks
Current Policies likely extends the business cycle one possibly two to three years and avoids a near term US and Global recession
Concluding Thoughts
4
Marketing challenges of policy intervention
• A 1-year Business Cycle extension will create a complex chart pattern & increase the complexity of the market decision
• Assuming a 2 to 3-year Business Cycle extension will create even more complex chart patterns and marketing decisions
• Why the complexity? A key policy focus will be minimizing asset bubble damage with managed flows of stimulus
325,00
038
5,00
056
1,00
066
0,00
069
6,00
069
0,00
0 908,00
088
1,00
01,06
2,00
01,29
3,00
01,13
4,00
078
6,00
0 1,02
4,00
097
9,00
093
5,00
087
6,00
01,07
5,00
01,03
0,00
01,07
1,00
01,11
1,00
01,23
0,00
01,07
0,00
01,20
0,00
01,14
0,00
091
0,00
0 1,16
0,00
01,28
3,00
01,37
4,00
01,13
0,00
0 1,47
2,00
01,34
0,00
01,29
0,00
01,40
0,00
01,53
3,00
01,29
5,00
01,18
0,00
01,29
5,00
01,24
5,00
0 1,59
0,00
091
0,00
0 1,17
0,00
095
0,00
0 1,26
5,00
01,04
5,00
0 1,39
0,00
094
5,00
01,17
3,00
0
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
1,500,000
1,600,00019
72
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2018 Arkansas Long Grain Rice Harvested Acreage Expectation2018 acreage range 1,086,750 to 1,173,000 acres (2017 = 945,000) or 15% to 24.1% increase
2011
to 12 >2
9%
2013
to 14 >3
3%
2015
to 16 >3
3%
2017
to 18 >2
4%
• 2018 long grain rice acreage increase needs to remain in a range of 15% to 24% increase
• Reality is with no new demand [and if LG rice harvested acreage exceeds a 15% increase over 2017 acreage or 1,086,750 acres] one should expect increasingly downward pressure on LG rice prices, so plan accordingly
113,00
014
2,00
013
7,00
0 203,00
013
1,00
012
8,00
015
0,00
011
0,00
019
4,00
022
3,00
017
5,00
012
1,00
012
2,00
069
,500
84,000 13
2,00
013
4,00
010
9,00
012
8,00
014
8,00
014
9,00
015
7,00
0 218,00
019
8,00
0 258,00
022
8,00
020
0,00
0 249,00
027
8,00
014
8,00
016
2,00
016
4,00
015
4,00
010
1,00
010
4,00
014
4,00
099
,000
224,00
019
4,00
0 243,00
011
4,00
011
9,00
021
4,00
024
0,00
013
0,00
014
7,00
016
9,00
0
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,00019
72
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
1
Robert Coats, Ph.D.Professor ‐ Economics University of Arkansas Division of AgricultureDepartment of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness2301 S. University AvenueLittle Rock, AR 72203Phone: 501‐671‐2195Fax: 501‐671‐2215Mobile: 501‐944‐0747https://www.uaex.edu/farm‐ranch/economics‐marketing/food‐agribusiness‐webinars/http://twitter.com/Robert_Coats
Arkansas’ Rice Situation and OutlookPresented at 2017 USA National Rice Outlook Conference
San Antonio, Texas – December 10‐12, 2017
2011 NASSCropland Data Layer
Robert Coats, Professor – EconomicsUniversity of Arkansas System ‐ Division of Arkansas
Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness
