Apimec - São Paulo · “This presentation may include statements that present Vale's expectations...

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0 Apimec - São Paulo Rogério Nogueira Vale S.A. June 16, 2016

Transcript of Apimec - São Paulo · “This presentation may include statements that present Vale's expectations...

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Apimec - São Paulo

Rogério Nogueira

Vale S.A.

June 16, 2016

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Dis

clai

mer

“This presentation may include statements that present Vale's expectations about future events or results. All statements, when based upon expectations about the future and not on historical facts, involve various risks and uncertainties. Vale cannot guarantee that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following: (a) the countries where we operate, especially Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy; (c) the capital markets; (d) the mining and metals prices and their dependence on global industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and (e) global competition in the markets in which Vale operates. To obtain further information on factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) and The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited, and in particular the factors discussed under “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in Vale’s annual report on Form 20-F.”

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Age

nda

1. Market dynamics

2. Impact on Vale’s performance

3. Paving the way for the future

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Market dynamics

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7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

4-jan 4-fev 4-mar 4-abr 4-mai 4-jun

75

80

85

90

95

100

4-jan 4-fev 4-mar 4-abr 4-mai 4-jun

Percentual raise in prices from

04/01/2016 to 06/08/2016 US$/ton

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

4-jan 4-fev 4-mar 4-abr 4-mai 4-jun

22.9%

18.1%

-1.2%

3.6%

Copper

Metallurgical Coal Iron Ore

Nickel

4000

4300

4600

4900

5200

4-jan 4-fev 4-mar 4-abr 4-mai 4-jun

Prices of commodities have increased year to date reflecting a more positive sentiment, mainly in China

Source: Bloomberg.

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-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Local government bond

Corporate bond

Off-balance sheet credit

RMB & FX loans

Overall credit

Source: UBS, CEIC.

Share of credit in GDP, % y/y 3 months moving average

The positive sentiment is significantly based on the credit expansion in China with a record of bonds’ issues by the Chinese government

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Source: UBS, CEIC.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2013 2014 2015 2016

Floor Space Sold

Floor Space Started

Floor Space Completed

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2013 2014 2015 2016

Total

Infrastructure

Real estate

Manufacturing

Real estate market Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)

% y/y 3 months moving average % y/y 3 months moving average

Resulting in a greater incentive in fixed asset investment in China, particularly in infrastructure and real state market

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Seaborne iron ore supply estimate

201 169 156

146 142 136 1.494 1.514 1.568

1.622 1.627 1.624

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Chinese Domestic

Seaborne of iron ore ex-pellets

804 788 793 801 807 810

819 833 853 873 897 921

1.623 1.621 1.646 1.674 1.704 1.731

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ex-China crude steel production

Chinese crude steel production

In the context, expectations for Chinese steel production improved, absorbing additional supply of iron ore

Source: World Steel Association, Vale’s internal data.

Crude steel production estimate

Bt Mt

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The oversupply of iron ore previewed to 2016 is likely to be attenuated

1 Overseas market, including pellets and Chinese domestic supply.

Mt

1.611 1.645 (10-20) (10-15) (25-35) 10-15 1.585 – 1.615

Supply2015¹

Projections2016¹

AustralianMajors

Ramp upnew

projects

Chinesedomestic

India Reviewed supply2016

+2%

-2% a 0%

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32

109

199

89

40

-50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E

1.997 1.9571.821

2014 2015 2016E

-5% -2%

The nickel supply should decrease 5% in 2016,

primarily because of the reduction of NPI in

China

Market forecasts a potential deficit¹ in the nickel market in 2016

with lower global supply

World Nickel Supply

Kt

Supply and Demand Balance1

Kt

Potential deficit should be of approximately 50kt

of nickel contained

1 Supply and demand balance excluding the inventories in the LME and SHFE.

Source: Macquarie.

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Inventories have migrated towards Shanghai

Exchange, but levels are not as high as in recent

years

-252

58

-546

-183

17 10

333415

107

-495

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

LME

Comex

Shanghai

Copper market is expected to be balanced in 2016,

with a surplus in the following years

In 2016, we expect the copper market to be balanced, with a

potential surplus in the following years

Source: CRU Copper Quarterly Report 1Q16, Bloomberg.

Global balance in refined copper

Kt

World Copper inventories in Exchanges Kt

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Impact on Vale’s

performance

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Despite recent price increases, commodities’ prices are returning

to a historical level

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016²

Iron Ore

Metallurgical Coal

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

45.000

1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 20102016²

Copper Nickel

1 Nominal prices for 2015 and 2016 and real prices for the previous years. 2 Mean until June 13th, 2016.

Source: Bloomberg, World Bank, Wood Mackenzie and CRU.

US$/t

Base Metals1 Bulk materials1

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1 Net of depreciation and amortization. 2 Includes SG&A, R&D, Pre-operating and stoppage and other expenses. Does not include gain/loss on sale of assets. 3 Positive impact of US$ 244 million from the goldstream transaction on the 1T13. 4 Positive impacts of US$ 230 million from the goldstream transaction on the 1T15 and US$ 331 million of Asset Retirement

Obligations - ARO).

Our focus and managerial discipline allowed us a substantial

reduction in COGS and expenses, despite an increase in volumes

Costs¹

US$ million

Expenses1,2

US$ million

-33.1%

6.857

4.521

3.547

1.861

2012 2013 2014 2015

-72.8%

22.661

20.520 21.207

16.984

2012 2013 2014 2015

3

4

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3,8

4,9 5,0

2013 2014 2015

299,8 319,2 333,4

2013 2014 2015

Iron Ore1,2

Nickel Copper3

Coal (Moatize)

260,2 275,0

291,0

2013 2014 2015

+11,8%

+11,2%

370,1 379,7 423,8

2013 2014 2015

+14,5%

1 Includes iron ore fines, lump, ROM and iron ore feed for Vale’s pellets plants. 2 Excludes Samarco’s attributable production. 3 Includes Lubambe’s attributable production. 2013 figure include Tres Valles production.

30% Mt ‘Mt

Kt Kt

With the start-up of new projects and an increase in productivity,

we have increased production volumes in different commodities

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Adjusted EBITDA margin (%)

Platts IODEX Iron Ore Price

Average (US$/t)

4.1 4.1

3.0

2.2 1.6

2.2 1.9

1.4 2.0

120.4

102.6

90.2

74.3

62.4 58.4 54.9

46.7 48.3

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q16

42.7 41.4 33.1 24.1 25.7 31.8 28.8 23.6 35.1

US$ billion, quarter EBITDA

¹ Adjusted EBITDA excludes gains and/or losses on sales of assets and non-recurring expenses and includes dividends received from

non-consolidated affiliates.

2014 2015

EBITDA

Despite prices decrease, we’ve maintained our adjusted EBITDA¹ in a

robust level

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57.6

39.3 36.9

32.6 30.9

28.0

4T14 1T15 2T15 3T15 4T15 1T16

-51%

Iron ore fines and pellets delivered in China1 EBITDA’s breakeven decreased even more and consistently

1 Considers: [Cash Cost + royalties + freight + distribution costs + expenses (SG&A + R&D + pre operational and stoppage expenses)

+ moisture, adjusted by quality and premium s of pellets] / [ sold volume of iron ore (ex ROM)].

US$/t

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11.7 11.6

9.6

7.9

5.5

4.6 4.6

4.6

4.1

2.9

16.3 16.2

14.2

12.0

8.4

5.5 - 6.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E¹

Sustaining

Growth Projects

Additionally, we have been increasing our discipline on capital allocation, reducing significantly our investments

1 Considers Exchange rate BRL/USD 3.50 – 3.80.

Capex, US$ billion

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8.1 6.5

11.6

7.9

0.6 0.2

Original Budget Total Until 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Logistics

Mine and Plant

1.6

2.6

9.4 14.4

19.7

Our biggest growth project – the S11D – will complete most of its investment in the next 2 years

1 Includes project expenses, that are not capitalized, of US$ 289 million accumulated until 2015, US$ 84 million in2016, US$ 52 million

in 2017, US$ 15 million in 2018 and US$ 5 million in 2019.

US$ billion1

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The S11D project reached significant advances in the mine, plant and railway

S11D Mine Systems 1,2 and 3 Status March 2016

S11D Logistics – Onshore port stockyard

• Combined physical progress of 73%

- 85% of physical progress at the mine

site

- 64% of physical progress at logistic sites

- 85% of physical progress at the railway

spur

- 78% physical progress at the onshore

port

- 83% physical progress at the offshore

port

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The project will function with dry processing and will not need tailings dams

Screening Process Process’ Highlights

• High Fe content and highly homogenous

ore body allows the dry processing,

without any concentration process

• 18.000 MWh of electricity saved every

year (equivalent to a 20,000 inhabitants’

city)

• Lower environmental impact (lower water

consumption and no need for tailings

dams)

• Simpler process reducing capital

investment and sustaining investment,

mainly on tailings dams

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1.0 3.3 4.9

2.9

19.5

31.5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 on GrossDebt

Dollar 91%

Other currencies

9%

US$ billion

In parallel we’ve continue to manage our current debt profile and cost of debt

Debt amortization schedule¹ Debt profile, after hedge

¹ As of March 31st, 2016.

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Paving the way for the

future

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2016 and 2017 will be years for optimizing our business with the

continuous structured reduction of cost and expenses

Our free cash flow should be near equilibrium in 2016, our main

priority is to strengthen our balance sheet

1

2

We are prepared to face the challenges caused by the uncertainty in demand and the volatility in commodities prices

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Source: Vale’s internal data

22 mines in 4

production

systems

3 railways and 4

ports in Brazil

12 pelletizing

plants (Brazil

and Oman)

2 DCs and 5

blending ports

1

2

In iron ore, our integrated supply chain offers operational flexibility to maximize margins

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• Reduction of losses in New

Caledonia

• Optimization of operational flows

and progress in Long Harbour

ramp-up, with further reduction

of costs and expenses in the

North Atlantic

• Potential expansion steps

already identified in the

operations in Indonesia,

leveraging the resource base

and the existing brownfield

opportunities

1

2

Vale is the world’s largest producer of nickel, its portfolio will be further optimized

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• Completion of the ramp-up of Salobo tapping into a new rich

resource base

• Optimization of copper concentrate production in North Atlantic

operations with revision of our production flowsheet

• The late cycle of the commodity balances Vale’s business

portfolio

• Start-up of the Patrocínio phosphate rock project by 2017

with an additional estimated EBITDA of US$ 80-90 million

• Ramp-up of the Nacala Logistics Corridor will increase our

competitiveness in the coal business, reducing around 60% of

COGS when compared to 2015

• Operational improvements in Mozambique are paving the way

for better results in our coal business

Copper

Coal

Fertilizers

1

2

Our copper, coal and fertilizers business will be in better competitive position in the near future

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• Our discipline in capital allocation will enable a significant

CAPEX reduction from 2015 to 2016

• The divestment of non core assets in the range of US$ 4 to 5

billion will help us improve our cash flow and reduce our

leverage

• The execution of the ongoing initiatives will allow a solid cash

generation at any price scenario

2

1

Our main priority is to strengthen our balance sheet together with the increase in our Free Cash Flow

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Evaluation of transactions involving

core assets, aiming at reducing net

debt by US$ 10 billion

Sale of non core assets, with the goal of

simplifying the company’s portfolio, totaling

US$ 4 – 5 billion

• Coal JV

• 2nd tranche preferred shares

• Precious metals streaming

• 7 VLOCs

• Energy assets

• Definition of the future assets

portfolio

• Assessment of the value of

potential transactions

• Estimate of the potential debt

reduction associated with potential

transactions

2016

2016 - 2017

2

1

Potential divestments will help balance free cash flow and strengthen the balance sheet

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• Assets well positioned in the

cost curve

• Capital allocation discipline

with lower sustaining capex

requirements

• Low leverage, with long debt

maturity

Strong balance sheet

World-class

assets

Low capex

We will be competitive, independently of prices

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