AoH Phase 2 and TSSProject Update

WRAP Technical Analysis Forum

Las Vegas, NVFebruary 6, 2007

Overview

• This morning:– Brief overview of project– Brief review of TSS Home page and recent tools– Review of data substitution analysis for WRAP sites

• This afternoon:– Review of TSS training schedule– Review of on-going AoH Phase 2 and TSS work– Anticipated data updates for 2007

TSS Goals

• Provide a single web-based location for:– Access and display of technical data– Display of analytical results– The reference location for related

documentation to support the regional haze implementation plans

• Provide technical support documentation for WRAP regional haze implementation plans

WRAP Technical Information CentersVisibility Information Exchange Web System (VIEWS): VIEWS provides on-line access to monitoring data, research results and special studies related to visibility. http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/

Regional Modeling Center: The WRAP’s Regional Modeling Center at the University of California Riverside provides state and tribal agencies with sophisticated modeling of regional haze in the Western United States. http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/

Emissions Data Management System: An emission inventory data warehouse for states and tribes. The system provides a consistent, complete and regional approach to emissions data management and tracking. http://www.wrapedms.org/

Causes of Haze Assessment: A detailed analysis of ambient monitoring data for regional haze in the WRAP region. http://www.coha.dri.edu/

The Technical Support System integrates a number of different information resources under one web-based umbrella. http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss

WRAP Data Centers Support the TSS

Data CentersPlanning/Decision Tool

& Summary Data

Haze monitoring data

Modeling analysis results

Emissions data

Monitoring analysis results

TSS Overview

• TSS focus has been to prepare tools to support SIP writers’ needs– Dynamic tools – interactive, based on data queries

• Graphs• Tables• Maps

– Static tools – analyses/products generated outside of the TSS, often placeholders for planned dynamic tools

• Most SIP-relevant tools are currently in place• Where possible, data tables have been made

available for download so analysts can examine data and reformat graphics as required

TSS Demo

WRAP Data Substitution Project

• The Regional Haze Rule (RHR) data completeness requirements:

• Each sample must contain all required species• Each season must contain at least 50% possible days• Each year must contain at least 75% possible days• No more than 10 consecutive samples may be missing• Three (3) years of “complete” data required for baseline

• Allowable “routine” data substitutions already performed:• Use of a surrogate in the data set (e.g., sulfate and sea salt)• Use of seasonal average to “patch” data according to specific RHR

guidelines

• Additional data substitutions beyond RHR guidance:• Estimation of OC from organic H; estimation of EC from OC• Identify a “donor” site and apply historical regression for data

substitution

Sites w/Data Completeness Problems

Site Name (State) Site Abbr. Fewer Than 3 Years Missing 2002 Mt. Baldy (AZ) BALD X X Indian Garden (AZ) INGA X Tonto (AZ) TONT X Kaiser (CA) KAIS X X Point Reyes (CA) PORE X San Rafael (CA) RAFA X X Sequoia (CA) SEQU X Trinity (CA) TRIN X Flathead (MT) FLAT X Fort Peck (MT) FOPE X Glacier (MT) GLAC X Northern Cheyenne (MT) NOCH X Capitol Reef (UT) CAPI X X North Cascades (WA) NOCA X

Working with States• ARS worked with each state individually to review options

and refine methods• Important elements of final method include:

– Regional consistency– Use of same site surrogate (OC from H, EC from OC) first– Use of donor site as necessary, only for missing species (in some

cases only soil and/or coarse mass were substituted because all other species had been captured in the sample)

– Use of Kendall-Theil regression (better at handling outliers than standard linear regression)

– Use of donor site determined by review of historical comparisons and state knowledge about the sites

• Final decision on data substitutions expected by states very soon, pending final data from ARS; will be posted at:

http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/web/documents/substitutedata.aspx

Start with IMPROVE RHR dataset(daily_budgets_nia_20060306)

3 complete years(including 2002)?

Calculate site specific, quarterlycomponent linear regression stats

for each missing component(IMPROVE Raw data)

Is Hydrogen available(A module)?

Missing OC/EC(C module)?

For each missing year,check each incomplete day

Done

Complete years?

Calculate site specific, quarterlyOrganic H/OC and OC/EClinear regressions stats

(IMPROVE Raw data)

Select nearby IMPROVE sitewith similar characteristics

Apply quarterlyregressions to substitute

site mass values formissing components only

yes

Apply quarterlyregressions to Organic H and

resultant OC values for OC/EC values

no

yes

yes

yes

no

no

no

Data Substitution Flow Chart

• Tonto NM has 3 years of complete RHR data (2001, 2003, 2004) but requires 2002 for model predictions

• Blue bars represent sum of extinction from all species

• Red lines represent minimum 20% worst values

2001

20% W > 22

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Ext

inct

ion

(M

m-1

)

TONT1 (SIAN1 sub)

2002

0

25

50

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125

150

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

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Nov

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Ext

inct

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(M

m-1

)

2003

20% W > 26

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Ext

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(M

m-1

)

2004

20% W > 22

0

25

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Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr Ma

Jun

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Ext

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2000

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Sample Results:TONT1

• Tonto NM with substitutions from Sierra Ancha W– 2000 still not complete year– 2002 complete year; Apr-May carbon substitutions from org. H

2000

0

25

50

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Jan

Fe

Ma

Ap

Ma

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Au Se

Oct No

De

Ext

inct

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(M

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2002

20% W > 26

0

25

50

75

100

125

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Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Ext

inct

ion

(M

m-1)

• Tonto NM with substitutions from Sierra Ancha W– 2000 still not complete year– 2002 complete year; Apr-May carbon substitutions from org. H

2000

xx x xx x xx

x

0

25

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Jan

Fe

Ma

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Ma

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Ext

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(M

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2002

xxxxxxxxxxxxx

x

0

25

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Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

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Jun

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

Nov

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Ext

inct

ion

(M

m-1)

• Capitol Reef NP has 2 years of complete RHR data (2003, 2004) and requires 2002 for model predictions

• Blue bars represent sum of extinction from all species

• Red lines represent minimum 20% worst values

Sample Results:CAPI1 2001

0

25

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150

Jan

Feb

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(M

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CAPI1 (CANY1 sub)

2002

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Feb

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Ext

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(M

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2003

20% W > 13

0

25

50

75

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125

150

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Ext

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(M

m-1

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2004

20% W > 15

0

25

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150

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr Ma

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

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Ext

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(M

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2000

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr Ma

Jun

Jul

Au

Se

Oct No

De

Ext

inct

ion

(M

m-1

)

• Capitol Reef NP with substitutions from Canyonlands NP– No carbon substitutions from org. H– All three years require extensive substitutions from CANY1

2000

20% W > 17

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Jan

Fe

Ma

Ap

Ma

Jun

Jul

Au Se

Oct No

De

Ext

inct

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(M

m-1)

2001

20% W > 17

0

25

50

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100

125

150

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Ext

inct

ion

(M

m-1)

2002

20% W > 19

0

25

50

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100

125

150

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Ext

inct

ion

(M

m-1)

• Capitol Reef NP with substitutions from Canyonlands NP– No carbon substitutions from org. H– All three years require extensive substitutions from CANY1

2000

x xxx xxxxx

xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xx xxx x

0

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2001

xxxxxxx

xxxxxxxxx

xx xx xx x xxx x x xxxx xxx x x xx x xxxxxxxx xxxx

xxx x xx

0

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Jan

Feb

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(M

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2002

xxxxxx xxxx xxx x x xxx xx

x x xxx

x x

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Feb

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(M

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Afternoon Session

• IWG training #1, February 15– 60-90 minutes of WebEx training– Narrow focus

TSS Training Schedule Thru mid-2007

• Orientation to site selection map

• Orientation to “tab” tool options

• Orientation to a small number of tools + documentation

– Syllabus to be delivered prior to training

• IWG training #2, March/April– Similar format– Topic: how to use the TSS to perform a Reasonable

Progress/Weight of Evidence analysis

[Tom to say a few words about Reasonable Progress]

• TSS Orientation & Review Meeting, June 19-20– In person training to broad audience (Tom to discuss in

greater detail tomorrow)

TSS Training Schedule (cont.)

• Visibility projections tool currently under development– Calculation of RRFs via multiple methods as described

in the Monitoring Metrics document

• New tool development to stop, will spend time on TSS “clean up”– Site completeness and consistency– Better labeling, formatting– Re-design of WOE page: more intuitive/less confusing

• Completion of the AoH Phase 2 document – user guide to the TSS

TSS Technical Work Thru mid-2007

• Evaluation/re-design of database structure to make selections more intuitive to both the user and the developers

• One example of many similar issues:– IMPROVE Aerosol (Raw)– IMPROVE Aerosol (Preliminary)– IMPROVE Aerosol (RHR1)– IMPROVE Aerosol (RHR2)– IMPROVE Aerosol (Substituted)

Does anyone know what the differences are???

TSS Technical Work (cont.)

• IMPROVE data updates for 2005 and 2006 (?)• Emissions and modeling updates for the

Preliminary Reasonable Progress run (2018)[Tom to say a few words…]

• TSS linkage with other data nodes:– Emissions Data Management System (EDMS); review

of entire system currently underway, including potential methods for linkage to TSS

– Fire Emissions Tracking System (FETS); system currently in design phase

– Addition of ozone data to TSS; data available, need database structure and review tools

TSS Data Updates Expected in 2007