Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City...

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Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Transcript of Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City...

Page 1: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH

Analysis

AoH Meeting, Salt Lake CitySeptember 21-22, 2004

Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Page 2: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Regional Analysis

• AoH Phase I intended to make assessments that cover broad regions

• Many Methods of approaching regional/cluster analysis– Similar aerosol composition– Similar emissions source regions/categories– Similar geography– Similar meteorology

Page 3: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Regional Clusters on COHA Website

COHA: http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/trajgallery/trajmapgallery.html

Page 4: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

IMPROVE Particulate Monitoring Cluster Criteria

• All Class I areas within 100 km of a current site

• Site location lies between highest and lowest elevations of all areas in cluster

• 156 Class I areas combined into 108 clusters

Page 5: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

IMPROVE Clusters

IMPROVE Sites Class I Areas

Page 6: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

• Look at CMAQ-TSSA results and group sites that are basically influenced by the same sources

• Look at trajectories of the 20% worst visibility days and group sites with similar patterns

• Look at monitoring results

Possible Expansion of IMPROVE Clusters

Page 7: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Possible Expansion of IMPROVE Clusters

IMPROVE Sites Class I Areas

Page 8: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Monitoring Results

• July and January, 2002 preliminary results presented at July, 2004 AoH meeting– 1st look at site groupings:

• July• 20% worst modeled extinction days• NOx

Page 9: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Rocky Mountain National Park CMAQ-TSSA NOx

Page 10: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Mount Zirkel WA CMAQ-TSSA NOx

Page 11: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

White River WA CMAQ-TSSA NOx

Page 12: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Trajectory Analysis

•HYSPLIT calculated back trajectories matching July 2002 days from modeled data

Model Parameter ValueTrajectory duration 72 hours (3 days) Top of model domain 14,000 metersVertical motion option used model dataReceptor height 500 meters

•EDAS meteorological data was used for trajectoriesNote: CMAQ modeled data uses MM5 meteorological data

Page 13: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

ROMO HYSPLIT Back TrajectoriesJuly 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

200272-hr Back Trajectory

July 1,2,8,9,10,23End T im e: 1200 EST

End Height: 500mVertical M otion: D ata

S ite Location

Page 14: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

200272-hr Back Trajectory

July 1,2,8,9,10,23End T im e: 1200 EST

End Height: 500mVertical M otion: D ata

S ite Location

MOZI HYSPLIT Back TrajectoriesJuly 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

Page 15: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

200272-hr Back Trajectory

July 1,2,8,9,10,23End T im e: 1200 EST

End Height: 500mVertical M otion: D ata

S ite Location

WHRI HYSPLIT Back TrajectoriesJuly 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

Page 16: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

ROMO, MOZI, and WHRI Back TrajectoriesJuly 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

200272-hr Back Trajectory

July 1,2,8,9,10,23End T im e: 1200 EST

End Height: 500mVertical M otion: D ata

S ite Location

Page 17: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Monitoring Results

• IMPROVE aerosol samplers– 24-hour integrated aerosol sample every 3

days– Analytical results can be characterized by

visibility contribution of individual species

Page 18: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

ROMOMOZI

WHRI

IMPROVE Aerosol Extinction Data20% Worst Days

1997 - 2002

Page 19: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

IMPROVE Sites Class I Areas

Page 20: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Weminuche WACMAQ-TSSA NOx

Page 21: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Great Sand Dunes NPCMAQ-TSSA NOx

Page 22: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

WEMI HYSPLIT Back TrajectoriesJuly 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

200272-hr Back Trajectory

July 1,2,8,9,10,23End T im e: 1200 EST

End Height: 500mVertical M otion: D ata

S ite Location

Page 23: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

GRSA HYSPLIT Back TrajectoriesJuly 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

200272-hr Back Trajectory

July 1,2,8,9,10,23End T im e: 1200 EST

End Height: 500mVertical M otion: D ata

S ite Location

Page 24: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

WEMI and GRSA Back TrajectoriesJuly 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

200272-hr Back Trajectory

July 1,2,8,9,10,23End T im e: 1200 EST

End Height: 500mVertical M otion: D ata

S ite Location

Page 25: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

GRSAWEMI

IMPROVE Aerosol Extinction Data20% Worst Days

1997 - 2002

Page 26: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Mesa Verde NPCMAQ-TSSA NOx

Page 27: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

MEVE HYSPLIT Back TrajectoriesJuly 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

200272-hr Back Trajectory

July 1,2,8,9,10,23End T im e: 1200 EST

End Height: 500mVertical M otion: D ata

S ite Location

Page 28: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

WEMI, GRSA, and MEVE Back TrajectoriesJuly 1, 2 ,8 ,9 ,10, 23 (2002)

200272-hr Back Trajectory

July 1,2,8,9,10,23End T im e: 1200 EST

End Height: 500mVertical M otion: D ata

S ite Location

Page 29: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

MEVE

WEMI

IMPROVE Aerosol Extinction Data20% Worst Days

1997 - 2002

GRSA

Page 30: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

IMPROVE Sites Class I Areas

Similar Approach for Tribal CIAs

Pine Mountain

Mazatzal

Sycamore Canyon

Supersition

Yavapai-Apache

Page 31: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

• DRI residence time maps and trajectory regression analyses

• Temporal Resolution of Aerosol Data– Total Extinction– Mass– Worst and best days

• Summary of particulate and visibility data, and attributable emissions

• What else would be helpful for States and Tribes for Phase I?

Other Tools for Attribution Analysis

Page 32: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Residence Time PlotsBased on 20% Worst and Best Extinction

Flat Tops 20% Worst

Flat Tops 20% Best

Great Sand Dunes 20% Worst

COHA: http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/trajgallery/trajmapgallery.html

Great Sand Dunes 20% Best

Page 33: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Residence Time Plots – Flat TopsBased on 20% Worst Species Mass

Sulfate Nitrate

Organic Carbon Elemental Carbon

COHA: http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/trajgallery/trajmapgallery.html

Page 34: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Residence Time Plots – Great Sand DunesBased on 20% Worst Species Mass

Sulfate Nitrate

Organic Carbon Elemental Carbon

COHA: http://coha.dri.edu/web/general/trajgallery/trajmapgallery.html

Page 35: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

19%

0.2%

2.9%

3.1%

Contribution to Sulfate at Grand Canyon Based on Transport Regression Modeling

COHA: DRI AoH presentation July, 2004

Page 36: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

20% Worst Extinction (2002) – Northern CO

VIEWS: http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/Web/AnnualSummary/ContourMaps.aspx

Page 37: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

20% Worst Extinction (2002) – Southern CO

VIEWS: http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/Web/AnnualSummary/ContourMaps.aspx

Page 38: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Extinction

Amm. Sulfate

Amm. Nitrate

Organic Mass

Elemental Carbon

Extinction

Amm. Sulfate

Amm. Nitrate

Organic Mass

Elemental Carbon

VIEWS: http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/Web/AnnualSummary/ContourMaps.aspx

20% Worst Extinction/Mass (2002)Rocky Mountain Mesa Verde

Page 39: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Extinction

Amm. Sulfate

Amm. Nitrate

Organic Mass

Elemental Carbon

Extinction

Amm. Sulfate

Amm. Nitrate

Organic Mass

Elemental Carbon

VIEWS: http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/Web/AnnualSummary/ContourMaps.aspx

20% Worst Extinction/Mass (2002)Mount Zirkel Mesa Verde

Page 40: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.
Page 41: Incorporating Monitoring, Modeling, and EI Data into AoH Analysis AoH Meeting, Salt Lake City September 21-22, 2004 Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

OM3.2

EC0.3

CM6.6

Soil1.5

Amm. Nitrate

0.7

Amm. Sulfate

1.2

SO20.3

VOC3.1

NOX0.9

CM0.4

NH30.2

PM2.50.4

Avg. Aerosol for ROMO, MOZI and WHRI (ug/m3)

Total Emissions for CO,UT and WY (millions tons/year)

Average Light Extinction for ROMO, MOZI and WHRI (Mm-1)

Amm. Nitrate

10%

EC7%

Soil3%

CM9%

Rayleigh23%

OM31%

Amm. Sulfate

17%