ANewWorldofLearningEurope2020 Prof. dr. sc. Pero Lučin University of Rijeka Mednarodna...

ANewWorldofLearning•Europe2020Prof. dr. sc. Pero Lučin

University of Rijeka

Mednarodna multikonferenca Splet izobraževanja in raziskovanja z IKT – SIRikt 2012

Kranjska Gora, 21.– 24. marec 2012

© 2011. Pero Lučin 2

Think!

to what extent the world has changed

in the last 10 yearsto what extent the world will change in the next 10 years

What2020will look

like?

Think to what extent some important thinks has been changed during your life, such as: Computer Internet Modem speed

How to prepare students for their future?

... than, you should think to what extent some important thinks will be changed in their lives


First class pupil will be 16Secondary school graduate will be 272nd cycle TE graduate will be 33

Imagine 2020

I will be 58


What should we keep in mind?

We are living in exponential times.Learning process is changing by the influence of technology.Human brain adapts – evolution for survival.Industrial civilization vanishes.Knowledge based civilization is emerging.

Educational system is constructed for industrial civilization.We (teachers) are educated for

industrial society.


... but we also should keep in mind

Breakdown of the global financial system,Global warming,Global competition,Lack of fossil fuels,Surveillance society ...

and also NanotechnologyBiotechnologyAstrophysics ...



What are we going to do today?

The World is rapidly changing


December 23, 1834Charles Babbage announces the analytical engine

Top 25 days in computing history -178© 2011. Pero Lučin 9

October 22, 1925The transistor is patented

-87Top 25 days in computing history

The Times | June 1, 1954

“The use of transistors in the ordinary radio set is probably still far off.”

~1019 transistors produced in 2003

100 x more than ants


February 14, 1946ENIAC is unveiled


It was estimated to have performed more calculations in a decade than the whole human race had managed before it.


September 4, 1956The launch of the IBM 305 RAMAC


The one-ton machine could store a little less than 5MB of information.

USB stick – 3,000 x


October 29, 1969The dawning of the internet era



November 1971The first e-mail is sent

-41The First Email Computer http://openmap.bbn.com/~tomlinso/ray/ka10.html

Top 25 days in computing history


April 16, 1977Apple II heralds the age of the home computer



April 3, 1981The first portable computer

August 12, 1981IBM launches the “PC”



November 13, 1990Tim Berners-Lee writes the first web page



March 14, 1993Mosaic opens up the web



March 16, 1995The first Wiki is announced

-17Wikimedia – collaborative and rapid generation of knowledge

Top 25 days in computing history


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/Wikimedia_logo_family.png

May 11, 1997Machine takes on man, and wins



November 18, 1997Wi-fi standards laid down



September 7, 1998Google founded



June 1, 1999Shawn Fanning releases Napster



February 15, 2005YouTube comes online

-7

One hour of video is uploaded to YouTube every second

Over 4 billion videos are viewed a dayhttp://www.youtube.com/t/press_statistics


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/66/YouTube_logo.svg

September 26, 2006Facebook was opened to

everyone of age 13 and older

-6© 2011. Pero Lučin 25

March 19, 2012833.944.080 users(In August 2008. – 1.000.000).701.520 users in Slovenia35% populationhttp://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-statistics

July 11, 2008Apple launches the iPhone App Store



April 15, 2010Apple launches iPad

-2© 2011. Pero Lučin 27

March 13, 2012Encyclopaeida Britannica

gives up on print eddition after 244 years

-0© 2011. Pero Lučin 28

http://www.wespeaknews.com

+8

2020.???????????


We are livingin exponential times


0123456789

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Years of growth

Tim

es in

crea

se

When things grow in a linear fashion,the growth is very predictable


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Years of growth

Tim

es in

crea

se

Linear growth versus exponential doublingOver 10 years – 1,000 times as big


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Years of growth

Tim

es in

crea

se

Linear growth versus exponential triplingOver 10 years - 20,000 times as big


Moore’s LawTechnological processing power and speed now doubling every

12 months while during the same time it declines in value by 50% (a factor of 4 every 12 months)

David Thornburg calculated


Some researchers suggest that now, as nanotechnology became a reality, Moore’s Law is

doubling every 6 months

1978. NY–London 900$/ 7 hours.

Moore’s Law – it would cost one

penny and last 1 second

200x106

transistors in the head of pin.

The price of one transistor = the price of printed letter

What does it mean?


1 gbps - wireless© 2011. Pero Lučin 36

Gilder’s Law of the PhotonBandwidth speed and capacity per dollar tripling exponentially

every 6 months (a factor of 6 per year)

The Internet Revolution!The number of web pages doubling exponentially

3 times a year (a factor of 8)

Every day: 3 mil new web pages 10 bil instant messages 19 bil e-mail messages 12 bil spam messages

80% web sites that will exist in a year (from now) – do not exist.


A huge number of brains exposed to knowledge


world's meeting house, a modern planetary forum, where millions distribute gigabytes of data

3,499,295,014 by 2015.

The Age of InfoWhelmThe amount of unique new technical information

doubling every two years, expected to be doubling every two week by 2006 and every 72 hours by 2010


Biotechnology &

Nanotechnology


The Olduvai Theory: 1930-2030

Duncan, RC (2000). The Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method: User's Guide & Forecast #4. www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/ (Forecast #4). 30 p.


Adaptationis needed


Adaptation is essential for survival


It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.

- Charles Darwin

Everybody should adapt - evolution


Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up.It knows it must outrun the fastest lion or it will be killed.

Every morning in Africa, a lion wakes up.It knows that it must run faster than the slowest gazelle or it will starve.

We should also run – evolution


It doesn’t matter whether you’re a lion or a gazelle -when the sun comes up, you’d better be running.

Human brain in the digital era

Neuroplasticity


The puzzle is gradually growing


It is far from complete picture

• bb

http://graphicssoft.about.com/library/reviews/blxen2-10puzzle.htm http://themessagecafe.com/members-one-of-another/


lifelong ability of the brain to reorganize its

structure and functions (neural pathways) based

on new experiences (learning).

How The Brain Rewires ItselfFriday, Jan. 19, 2007


Neuroplasticity

http://www.time.com/time

Our genes lay down the basic directions for neurons and build its major “highways” between the basic functional areas of the brain.

Environmental influence

then plays the key role in forging a much denser, more complex network of interconnections. These smaller avenues and side roads, always under construction.


At birth each neuron has 2,500 synapses.

In two or three years old the number of synapses is 15,000 per neuron.

This is about twice that of the average adult brain.

As we age, old connections are deleted through a process called synaptic pruning.


deleting old connections

creation of new ones

“Synaptic pruning”


Formation of new connections

Changes in the internal structure of the existing synapses.

Learning


Like sand on a beach, the brain bears the footprints of the decisions we have made, the skills we have learned, the actions we have taken.

The brain operates in a use-it-or-lose-it fashion

Neurologist Arne May and colleagues at the University of Regensburg


Buddhist monks, the Olympic athletes of mental training. Some monks have spent more than 10,000 hours of their lives in meditation.

Even thinking can change the brain!


Exposure to media – neuroplasticity?

Spend 10.000 hours playing video games Send 200.000 e-mails Spend 20.000 hours i front of TV Spend 10.000 hours on mobile phone Spend less than 5.000 hours reading

books

Today's ten years old can expect that by the 2020 will:

Prensky, 2003.


What is a scale of information that human brain is exposed today?

Thanks to the machines in front of us, We can channel more information in an afternoon than was stored in the complete Library of Alexandria, the fabled repository of knowledge in the ancient world.

http://doctorbulldog.wordpress.com/2010/05/02/did-arabs-destroy-the-library-of-alexandria/

In a day - more than repository of knowledge in the ancient world


Functional MRI brain scans show how searching the Internet dramatically engages brain neural networks (in red). The image on the left displays brain activity while reading a book; the image on the right displays activity while engaging in an Internet search. (Credit: Image courtesy of University of California - Los Angeles)

Searching the Internet dramatically engages brain neural networks

ScienceDaily (Oct. 15, 2008)

Web is "rewiring our brains"The brains are modified by our behavior. It would not be any big surprise that the wired society we're living in now is changing in important ways the way our brains work and are connected, compared with somebody 100 or 200 years ago."Strayer agrees with those who say that we "stink" at multitasking, stating that "we're trading quality for quantity.“Strayer, NYT


The brains are modified by our behavior


Intelligence is not inherited – it can be changed in teenage time by ± 25%

(and maybe during the lifetime)

Learning and excersise – can scale up

Inactivity and lack of excersise – can scale down

Ramsden et al., (2011) Verbal and non-verbal intelligence changes in the teenage brain. Nature doi:10.1038/nature10514 (19. October 2011)

http://shine.yahoo.com/channel/parenting/gifted-child-study-shows-kids-iqs-can-change-during-the-teen-years-2590889/

Expected effects on the quality of life


brain fitness

Some neuroplasticians believe that the greatest impact of neuroplastic research will show up in the field of education.

Impact on education is expected


The problem is more complex: How do we rise above the noise?

http://blog.social-marketing.com/2011/07/change-world-with-transmedia.html

We live in a socially-networked, transmedia world. We need effective organizing systems and filters that connect information in the world with things that have meaning and relevance.

http://www.psychologytoday.com


Transmedia storytelling is quickly

becoming the new standard for 21st

century communication.

http://www.psychologytoday.com

The solution: Transmedia storytelling

http://deanashour.wordpress.com/2011/04/13/reflective-blog-on-interactivity-transmedia-storytelling/


Why?: Storytelling speaks to all levels of the brain

Stories are the brain's way of organizing information - in other words, how we rise above the noise. Stories package information for rapid comprehension by engaging the brain at all levels: intuitive, emotional, rational, and somatic.http://www.psychologytoday.com

Stories are the brain's way of organizing information - in other words, how we rise above the noise.

Neuroscience meets ancient practiceshttp://www.psychologytoday.com

http://stanmed.stanford.edu/2005fall/brain-main.html


The dilemma is rather old

Socrates himself feared that writing, the oldest

information-technology of all, might end up

making us less intelligent, with reading substituting

for remembering.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1284564/


'Is Google Making us Stupid?'

There is a dark side –

Internet is teaching us

to stop thinking!Nicolas Carr


Inability to concentrate on anything for more than a few moments at a time.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1284564/


Are we “outsourcing our brains to the cloud?” asks Bill Keller

When we outsource our memory to a machine, we also

outsource an important part of our

intellect and even identity.


We need to think “scientifically”

To survive in the modern age, you need to think 'scientifically' (even if you are not a scientist), to be able to put things into categories, to operate machines, to think in a linear fashion and use modern technologyhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1284564/


New generationof people is different?


Generation X

Generation Y

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Silent generation

Baby boom generation

Net generation

Different generations – different values - different learning needs


Homo Zappiens

The generation – Playing Games

• Grand Theft Auto, World of Warcraft, PS2, Xbox, LAN Parties

– Communicating 24/7• Via SMS, MSN, chat rooms, mobile

– Integrating f2f and virtual friends– Never reading a manual– Not interested in technology

Wim Veen (2006) - Net Generation Learning - Delft University of Technology

The generation for whom learning is playing


Their tools

…. for controlling information flow, to struggling with an enormous quantity of information and for fast and appropriate selection of information according to their needs


Processing discontinued information

Channel 1

Channel 2

Channel 3

Zapping is the skill to construct meaningful knowledge from discontinued audio-visual and textual information flows.



© 2011. Pero Lučin 76Wim Veen (2006) - Kako Internet generacija uči - Delft University of Technology

SMS/MSN 24/7: 10 simultaneous conversationsMore than 150 contacts

Linear

B CA E FD

Non-linear

B

C A

EF

D

Non-linear learning strategies demand a redesign of content: learning assets, objects to be accessed just-in-time

Non-linear learning



They are aware of knowledge expansion!


The same pattern of adaptation

Brains of 'novice' users of Google (a rare breed by 2008) became much like the brains of experienced Web users after just a few days.

Gary Small, a professor of psychiatry at UCLA (2008)http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1284564/


All generations adapt

http://blogs.forrester.com/category/mobile_internet


Generations in Croatia 2020


Baby boom generation will be retired

Generation X will lead Croatia – schools, universities – majority of teachers

Generation Y will represent a third of the election body

200.000 members of the generation Z will be at universities and 600.000 in schools – they will be willing to participate in decision making

Jobs will last approx. 3 years

Business models will last 1 year

Just ICT and spread of information

What aboutGlobal crisis

Political processEconomy

Global warmingLack of fossil fuel

NanotechnologyHealthcare economy

Astroparticle research

Industrial civilization is wanishing



It had its own rules


Schools were constructed for the needs of industrial civilization

Individual is placed into the center


Should be trained for life in global society


Schools should look differently


Schools and teachers should adapt to the needs on new generations of people


Work is different …Tools are different …Communication is different …Information are different …Children are different …Learning is different …

Teaching must be different …Schools must be different …Management must be different …

Conclusion


How educational system should respond to all these changes?


• Flexibility of content• Flexibility of learning models • Flexibility of time and space• Flexibility of goals and

assessment• Flexibility of learning networks

Flexibility is a keyword



Flexibility of learning models

Directed by a teacher Directed by a group Directed by a student


Assesment

Core subjects

Learning skills

21st century

tools

21st

century content

21st century context

How to develop 21st century skills

The bridge for 21st century learning

Learning for the 21st Century. A Report and MILE Guide for 21st Century Skills


"The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot

read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and

relearn."

Alvin Toffler

Continuous cycles of learning during life of an individual


"Society needs people who take care of the elderly and who know how to be

compassionate and honest. Society needs people who work in hospitals. Society

needs all kinds of skills that are not just cognitive; they're emotional, they're

affectional. You can't run the society on data and computers alone.“

Alvin Toffler

Society needs all kind of skills


We are living in exponential times

Our brains are adapting to exponential life

Educational system is a tool for systematic development of opportunities for society and for economy

Central role of teacher – to connect brains

Conclusion


WeWe ExpectationsExpectations

Reality ?

Can we do that?

Who else?Petar Turčinović (2006)


Možemo li mi to?

A tko će drugi?


We should wake up

Collaboration is the only way to compete


We shouldn’t forget that we are in the 21st century


If you keep doing what you have always done,

you're going to get what you always got.

Roderick G. W. Chu became Chancellor of the Ohio Board of Regents on January 1, 1998. His primary responsibility is to challenge and guide Ohio’s higher education system toward new levels of performance and achievement in serving students, Ohioans, and the nation.

Hard to change the collective mindset of the school system Easier to the complete sense of hopelessness.


[email protected]

ANewWorldofLearningEurope2020 Prof. dr. sc. Pero Lučin University of Rijeka Mednarodna...

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