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Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1-Yemen-14Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is the early winner in Yemen. -- Bruce Riedel

Katherine Zimmerman, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute specializing in the region’s extremist threat,.   “ISIS is certainly looking to expand in Yemen, but the concern that I have is whether it will be able to take root … AQAP is a very established presence and the violence that ISIS . . .  brings to the conflict, is simply strange and foreign to Yemenis, so it might start to lose support if continues to pursue the same tactics that it has in Iraq and Syria.” As ISIS tries to gain influence, the terror group is trying to use tension between Yemen’s Sunni and Shiite communities to its advantage. “This is certainly the opening of ISIS trying to exploit and it’s trying to drive Yemen’s conflict toward a fully sectarian conflict,” Though she added, “it’s not playing out that way yet on the ground.”

Where We Stand The KSA's announcement of a suspension to the bombing is an admission of defeat. It equally is a defeat for the United States. The difference is that Washington never admits defeat. The Houthis remain in domination of most of Yemen -- militarily and politically. Hadi is history. AQAP has strengthened its position significantly. We've seen this movie before. Ever since 9/11, successive Presidents have been imperiling the nation through rash actions whose aims and purposes defy reason. Or, more accurately, we have experienced two versions of the same basic script. For the Bushies' aggressive strategy did make sense in their own warped view of a world that they sought to dominate by force of arms. As Captain Ahab acknowledged: "all my means are rational; it is my end that is mad." The Obama people, by contrast, pursue obscure ends by senseless means. Together, they have left the region strewn with the wreckage of thwarted stratagems -- Iraq (twice), Afghanistan (twice), Somalia, Pakistan, Libya, Palestine, and now Yemen which is linked the potentially biggest crack-up of all, with Iran. There, we can't make up our mind whether to sup with "the Devil," if so with how long a spoon, or to open our arms to welcome the Rapture that will follow Armageddon.Whether it’s half-a-billion dollars in “lost” weaponry or arms and materiel sold directly to Saudi Arabia, one thing is clear: The U.S. is playing a major role in the chaos unravelling Yemen.

“We’ve gotten warnings late last year. There were indicators ISIS was beginning to become expeditionary – they were moving forward in places like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and also in this area [Yemen] … where Al Qaeda has been, you can surely figure you’re going to see ISIS attempt to either undermine or take over the Al Qaeda elements,” said Army Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer (Ret.), a senior fellow with the London Center for Policy Research.

And while U.S. officials’ counter-terror narrative remains superficially unchanged, experts have warned that Riyadh’s unilateral military intervention against the Houthis, a rebel militant group that has taken hold of Yemen, played directly into al-Qaida’s hands, upending America’s anti-terror rhetoric.

Maj. Gen. Abdul Rahman al-Halili, commander of Yemen’s First Military Region, based in the southern province of Hadramawt, noted:

“Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen made it possible for al-Qaida militants to move outside their usual zone of influence. This change in political dynamics and Western nations’ shift in focus from Sunni radical groups to downsizing a perceived Shia threat has acted as a powerful boost for militants’ recruitment strategy and ambitions in Yemen.” He added: “Al-Qaida today is more dangerous than ever before, as Yemen no longer has the infrastructure or military unity required to thwart its advances.”

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Mojtada Mousavi, an Iranian political analyst and editor in chief of Iran’s View, said: “Although the Houthis and the group’s political arm, Ansarallah, quickly positioned themselves as America’s natural allies in counter terrorism, Washington chose instead to side with the very powers which have exploited radicalism to exert control over the greater Middle East region — Saudi Arabia.”

Mousavi continued: “Let’s be clear about something: Saudi Arabia is part of the terror equation and although the U.S. says it wants to destroy terror its officials are, however, getting in bed with terror’s financiers. Why? Because it makes economic sense to do so — arms dealers are happy and Big Oil is happy. The Houthis were best positioned to oppose the rise of al-Qaida, and this has been jeopardized by this war Riyadh is waging against Yemen. This alone should make you want to reframe your assumptions on why the Houthis have been labelled as an immediate threat to the region. A threat to who?”

“We’ve gotten warnings late last year. There were indicators ISIS was beginning to become expeditionary – they were moving forward in places like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and also in this area [Yemen] … where Al Qaeda has been, you can surely figure you’re going to see ISIS attempt to either undermine or take over the Al Qaeda elements,” said Army Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer (Ret.), a senior fellow with the London Center for Policy Research.He added, “the more you see Al Qaeda grow because of the chaos there, the more you’ll see ISIS take advantage of that.” Katherine Zimmerman, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute specializing in the region’s extremist threat, doesn’t fully agree.   “ISIS is certainly looking to expand in Yemen, but the concern that I have is whether it will be able to take root … AQAP is a very established presence and the violence that ISIS . . .  brings to the conflict, is simply strange and foreign to Yemenis, so it might start to lose support if continues to pursue the same tactics that it has in Iraq and Syria.” As ISIS tries to gain influence, the terror group is trying to use tension between Yemen’s Sunni and Shiite communities to its advantage. “This is certainly the opening of ISIS trying to exploit and it’s trying to drive Yemen’s conflict toward a fully sectarian conflict,” said Zimmerman. Though she added, “it’s not playing out that way yet on the ground.” “ISIS is going to figure out how to adapt in Yemen … both ISIS and the Houthis hate the Saudis so they may find a way to coexist efficiently to go after the common enemy … ISIS may well adapt and figure out how to work in this region,’ said Shaffer. Looking ahead, both have a grim outlook on Yemen’s future. “There are certain areas in eastern Yemen that are way outside the current conflict … and that’s the ungoverned space AQAP has taken advantage of,” said Zimmerman.  She points out the current campaign against extremists is only part of the wider network the terrorists have in Yemen.   “The coalition wants to do good things. The question becomes the intelligence, logistic piece and the political will – if we’re there with them … it’s not going to be an easy haul, I think we’ll see chaos [still] in six months,” said Shaffer.

It’s Good To Be King 04.29.15 Bruce Riedel, Yemen's War Shakes Up the Saudi PalaceKing Salman’a terror-fighting nephew becomes crown prince; the king’s ambitious son, the defense minister and the face of the fight in Yemen, is now second in line to the throne.Less than four months after ascending the throne, Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud has made unprecedented changes in the line of succession that benefit his own son Prince Mohammed bin Salman.  These shifts come as Salman pursues the most assertive foreign policy in recent Saudi history. The king removed the sitting Crown Prince Muqrin, his half brother, and promoted the third in line Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, his nephew, up to number two.  Salman made his own son, Mohammed bin Salman, the new number three.  The King also replaced the ailing foreign minister, Prince Saud al Faisal with a non-royal, the

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current ambassador to Washington,  Adel al Jubeir.  Prince Saud had been Foreign Minister since 1975. According to the royal palace, Prince Muqrin asked to be replaced, but no reason was given. No crown prince has ever given up the position in the history of the modern kingdom, founded in 1902.  When Salman ascended the throne in January, the press trumpeted Muqrin as heir and there was no sign he was not eager to be the next in line.  Many will assume he was asked to quit. Speculation will be intense about why that might be.  Muqrin was a protégé of the late King Abdullah.   He is not close to Salman's branch of the family, the Sudeiris. He also appeared less enthusiastic about Salman's war in Yemen.  As a former fighter pilot Muqrin understands the limits of air power, and he may have had doubts about the wisdom of what was initially called Operation Decisive Storm, but has now become a stalemate.The new crown prince, 55-year-old Mohammed bin Nayef, is famous for defeating Al Qaeda's violent attempt to overthrow the House of Saud a decade ago.  MBN, as he is known, led a four-year counter-terrorist campaign that decimated Al Qaeda in the Kingdom and drove its remnants into Yemen.  In the process MBN survived at least four assassination plots.  His father, the late Crown Prince Nayef, was so reactionary he was nicknamed the Black Prince. But MBN studied in Oregon and with the FBI and Scotland Yard before joining the Saudi interior ministry.  He also holds the position of chairman of the Kingdom’s security and political committee coordinating all security issues.Mohammed bin Salman, MBS, is the face of the Yemen war.  He became defense minister in January and has been constantly on Saudi TV appearing to direct the war effort and meeting with foreign leaders to win support for the campaign against the pro-Iranian Zaydi Shia Houthi rebels.  He is considered ruthlessly ambitious and is very close to his father. He has given up his position as chief of the royal court but he will undoubtedly keep control of access to the king.In promoting his nephew and son, King Salman is passing the torch to the next generations of royals. Unlike most Saudi princes, MBS was not educated in the west. Instead he studied at King Saud University. There is controversy over his age, reputed to be anywhere from 29 to 34 (officially his birthday is July 24, 1980).  He is chairman of a number of young people's organizations in the Kingdom and seeks to portray himself as the leader of the next generation of Saudis.  He also chairs the powerful development and economics committee that coordinates economic policies, including oil price and supply.In promoting his nephew and son, King Salman is passing the torch to the next generations of royals.  Since 1902 the Kingdom has been ruled by the founder of the modern Kingdom Ibn Saud Abd Al Aziz or his sons. Now, Salman will be the last son to reign.  These changes have all been endorsed by the Allegiance Council, the committee of the sons and grandsons of Ibn Saud, but the legitimacy of selecting the next generation has been a question mark over the succession process for years.  The king hopes it is now all settled.The late King Abdullah's own son, Prince Mitab, has kept his powerful position as commander of the Saudi National Guard.  The SANG is the family’s Praetorian Guard, it defends the capital, the holy mosques in Mecca and Medina and the oil industry.  SANG troops have occupied Bahrain, the Kingdom’s tiny island neighbor, since the Arab Spring in 2011 to keep a minority Sunni monarchy in power.   The new lineup is solidly pro-American but riven with doubts about American reliability. The royals believe George W. Bush foolishly let Iran gain dominance in Iraq and fear Barack Obama is too eager for a nuclear deal with Iran and a grand rapprochement with Tehran. Repeated assurances by Obama and concrete support for the Yemen war have not altered Saudi doubts about America.Salman's decision to wage war in Yemen so soon after coming to the throne reflected his acute concern that Iran was gaining a foothold on the Arabian Peninsula in what has always

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been the soft underbelly of Saudi Arabia, Yemen.  The Zaydi Houthi rebels are not pawns of Tehran but they did initiate direct air flights between Sanaa and Tehran early this year, offered Iran port facilities and negotiated a lucrative oil deal.  A few Iranian Revolutionary Guard advisers have been assisting the Zaydis for the last few years covertly.  From Riyadh's view Iran already dominated decision-making in Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, it does not want a fourth Arab capital to be aligned with Tehran.But Salman's intense effort to secure wide Islamic backing for the war has been less than a success.  Oman, Yemen's other neighbor, has opted not to join with the other five members of the Gulf Cooperation Council in the fighting, instead staying on the sidelines.  The Pakistani parliament voted unanimously to keep neutral and rebuff repeated Saudi requests for ground troops to aid the war effort.  Pakistani officials have privately suggested Salman panicked into the war without a viable strategy to get the Houthis out of Sanaa.  Even Egypt, which benefits from billions in GCC aid, has opted not to send troops. although it's navy is supporting the Saudi blockade of Yemen.The Yemen war is part Saudi-Iranian regional rivalry, part the unfinished business of the Arab Spring revolutions and part sectarian Sunni-Shia animosity.  It is above all the Salmans’ war, father and son together.  The surprise elevation of MBN and MBS underscores how the stakes in this war are crucial, not only to Yemen's future but increasingly to the future of the House of Saud. 

Whether it’s half-a-billion dollars in “lost” weaponry or arms and materiel sold directly to Saudi Arabia, one thing is clear: The U.S. is playing a major role in the chaos unravelling Yemen. By Catherine Shakdam | April 28, 2015 LONDON — President Barack Obama told reporters in January that his administration remains intent on addressing terrorism in Yemen by opposing the threat posed by al-Qaida in the impoverished nation on the Arabian Peninsula. Yet it seems that Saudi Arabia’s declaration of war on March 25 brought that strategy to a screeching halt. The kingdom could have done more than put the brakes on the global fight against terror in Yemen. Indeed, it now appears as if the United States has been cornered into enabling the very radicals it aims to eradicate.Speaking on America’s counter-terror strategy in Yemen in light of increased political tensions and instability there, Obama insisted during his January visit to India that, “[O]ur second priority is to maintain our counter-terrorist pressure on Al Qaida in Yemen and we’ve been doing that.” Calling out reports suggesting that the U.S. has suspended its counter terrorism activity as inaccurate, he asserted, “We continue to go after high value targets in Yemen and will continue to maintain the pressure required to keep American people safe.”And while U.S. officials’ counter-terror narrative remains superficially unchanged, experts have warned that Riyadh’s unilateral military intervention against the Houthis, a rebel militant group that has taken hold of Yemen, played directly into al-Qaida’s hands, upending America’s anti-terror rhetoric. “When it comes to the Houthis and whatever sectarian or political prejudice Western media might harbor, it is crucial to understand that no other factions in Yemen desire to destroy al-Qaida more than than they do,” Joaquin Flores, director and geopolitical analyst for the Center for Syncretic Studies – Bosnia, told MintPress News.He added: “And yet the U.S. has done everything it can to downgrade the Houthis’ pull in Yemen in favor of factions and groups backed by Saudi Arabia — al-Islah, for example, which we know have disturbing ties to Islamic radicalism.”

Islah is a Sunni radical party that serves as an umbrella for several religious-based subgroups, including the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist militants. Since 1994, Islah has benefited from Saudi Arabia’s backing — both politically and financially — to act as a counter-power to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s own political party, the General People’s Congress.

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Yemeni military officials also share the view that Saudi Arabia’s grand coalition of the willing — Morocco, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, Sudan, the U.S. and the European Union — has all but enabled al-Qaida by creating both a security and political vacuum terrorists can use to their advantage.Speaking to MintPress, Maj. Gen. Abdul Rahman al-Halili, commander of Yemen’s First Military Region, based in the southern province of Hadramawt, noted:“Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen made it possible for al-Qaida militants to move outside their usual zone of influence. This change in political dynamics and Western nations’ shift in focus from Sunni radical groups to downsizing a perceived Shia threat has acted as a powerful boost for militants’ recruitment strategy and ambitions in Yemen.”He added: “Al-Qaida today is more dangerous than ever before, as Yemen no longer has the infrastructure or military unity required to thwart its advances.” The enemy of my enemy The ugly stepsister of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen pales in comparison to its oil-rich neighbors. Impoverished, unstable and unruly, Yemen has been plagued by pandemic corruption, systemic unrest, widespread poverty and crippling inequality for well over three decades.Flores explained: “A geostrategic marvel and an opportune breeding ground for wannabe radicals due to a grand lack of government oversight and deep-seated grievances against the state, al-Qaida was quick to recognize Yemen’s terror potential. Just like Afghanistan became terror radicals’ ground zero in the 1980s, Yemen would be al-Qaida’s frontline in Arabia, right on the doorstep of mighty Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of the very ideology which has moved and animated Islamic terrorism.”Though Yemen has long been al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula’s (AQAP) playground in the Middle East, serving as a space for the radical arms of several Saudi-supported and -funded groups to run amok, many in Yemen, including the Houthis, have voiced their desire to oppose the rise of radicalism as the new political and institutional paradigm.Dragged through the mud by the mainstream media for their alleged link to Iran, the Houthis — rather than radical Islamists — have been blamed for Yemen’s descent into chaos.

In a report for the New York Review of Books last month, Robert Worth, a veteran Middle East journalist, wrote: “The Houthis, unlike Hezbollah and other Shia movements, do not take directions from Tehran, and have received relatively small amounts of aid.”Echoing Worth’s analysis, Adam Baron, a Yemen analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, was quoted in a recent report for The Guardian as saying: “The reason why we are seeing such language from the supreme leader is that his hands — or rather the Iranian government’s hands — are pretty tied at this point. In terms of providing financial or military support for the Houthis, it’s very hard to see how they would be able to do it. Making these strong statements are almost their only option.”Speaking to MintPress, Mojtada Mousavi, an Iranian political analyst and editor in chief of Iran’s View, said: “Although the Houthis and the group’s political arm, Ansarallah, quickly positioned themselves as America’s natural allies in counter terrorism, Washington chose instead to side with the very powers which have exploited radicalism to exert control over the greater Middle East region — Saudi Arabia.”

Mousavi continued: “Let’s be clear about something: Saudi Arabia is part of the terror equation and although the U.S. says it wants to destroy terror its officials are, however, getting in bed with terror’s financiers. Why? Because it makes economic sense to do so — arms dealers are happy and Big Oil is happy. The Houthis were best positioned to oppose the rise of al-Qaida, and this has been jeopardized

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by this war Riyadh is waging against Yemen. This alone should make you want to reframe your assumptions on why the Houthis have been labelled as an immediate threat to the region. A threat to who?” Weaponizing terror An al-Qaida logo is seen on a street sign in the town of Jaar in southern Abyan province, Yemen.Looking at how quickly Yemen descended into yet another terror spiral in the wake of the Saudi military campaign, several military officials have raised questions about King Salman’s ultimate goals. Maj. Gen. al-Halili told MintPress: “By seeking to neutralize the Houthis, as the Saudi military leadership has claimed, it is really Yemen’s military power, its very infrastructure, which has been devastated and systematically annihilated. Bearing in mind that it has been our military superiority so far which has enabled us to keep terror militants at arms’ length, Yemen’s ability to fight terror has been dramatically thwarted. It is actually on the back of Saudi Arabia’s bombing of Yemen that we have witnessed a resurgence in al-Qaida-related activities.”

Indeed, al-Qaida managed to seize control of an airport in Mukalla, the capital of the southeastern province of Hadramawt, on April 16. The group now controls nearly the entire city of 200,000 people. Since March 25, al-Qaida has successfully tightened its hold over southeast Yemen by taking hold of a military base and an airport, as well as maintaining its positions in the eastern province of Shabwa.The group has also been able to procure high-caliber weapons, tanks, armored vehicles and other key military materiel. Ahmed al-Junaid, a spokesman and leading member of the Houthis, told MintPress: “Al-Qaida has now access to high-caliber weapons, including missiles and high-value military equipment. Saudi Arabia is not just trying to downgrade our men’s ability to repel terror militants; it is working to empower radicals — and that with the tacit blessing of Washington. Where is the U.S. now, I’m asking? What happened to, we will fight terror wherever it lies? We know where it lies — it is north of our borders in Al Saud’s plushy palaces.” Disturbing links The Obama administration has been often accused of “leading from behind,” and geopolitical analyst Flores warns that the U.S. could be arming from behind as well. In stark contrast to former President George W. Bush’s bullish foreign policy stance, Obama has enacted a more passive approach, positioning America not as a leader and driver of world policy but as an observer. “Washington’s failure in keeping track of its military aid in the Middle East, might it be in Yemen, Iraq, Syria or Libya, has proven not just dangerous but reckless, as terror militants have managed to seize, control and grab increasingly key military assets,” Flores told MintPress. “One could actually argue that the U.S. is willingly playing both sides of the river — or rather, those weapons dealers colluding with officials in Washington are.” On March 17, U.S. officials confirmed to the Washington Post that an estimated $500 million worth of military equipment had vanished in Yemen. “The Pentagon is unable to account for more than $500 million in U.S. military aid given to Yemen, amid fears that the weaponry, aircraft and equipment is at risk of being seized by Iranian-backed rebels or al-Qaeda, according to U.S. officials,” the Post reported. With half a billion dollars of weapons on the loose, Washington decided to withhold further military aid to Yemen. “As a result, the Defense Department has halted shipments to Yemen of about $125 million in military hardware that were scheduled for delivery this year, including unarmed ScanEagle drones, other types of aircraft and Jeeps. That equipment will be donated instead to other countries in the Middle East and Africa,” the newspaper continued.Flores, who has been paying particularly close attention to al-Qaida’s movements in Yemen since late last month, when the Saudi-led military intervention created a power and security

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vacuum to be exploited, stressed that beyond the loss of $500 million worth of military hardware, militants stand to benefit from additional “military aid air drop-offs.”“For about two weeks now the Saudis and their allies have parachuted weapons and other supplies to their allies on the ground against the Houthis,” he said. “Since no one is exactly clear on who those allies actually are, it is fair to assume that al-Qaida militants will exploit such chaos and further grab military supplies.” Al-Junaid echoed Flores’s assertions:“We know that al-Qaida and members of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen are hiding within the ranks of the pro-Hadi militias, and we know that the coalition has been sending military aid to those factions. How much more proof do you need before waking up to the fact that al-Qaida is being sponsored by Saudi Arabia?” While the U.S. has been labelled careless “at best” by Flores for losing track of its military aid in Yemen, Iran View’s Mousavi warns this may be just the tip of the iceberg.“Nevermind the $500 million worth of weaponry, what about the billions of dollars Saudi Arabia has spent on buying U.S. weapons?” Mousavi said. “If Saudi Arabia is, as many suspect, the biggest and most direct sponsor of terror in the region, then by association the U.S. is supplying radicals.” A 2013 report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals trends in arms transfers. The group found that Saudi Arabia’s thirst for defense imports has been growing in recent years: “In 2009–13 the UAE was the world’s fourth largest arms importer and Saudi Arabia the fifth largest, having been the 18th largest in 2004–2008. Both countries have large outstanding orders for arms or advanced procurement plans. In particular, Saudi Arabian imports will increase with additional deliveries of Typhoon combat aircraft from the UK, and deliveries of 154 F-15SA combat aircraft from the USA from 2015. In 2013 Saudi Arabia selected armoured vehicles from Canada worth $10 billion.”U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia have been heavily scrutinized and challenged by analysts over the past few years as the kingdom’s desire to replenish its military stock has run parallel to militants’ advances in the Middle East. In an October report for the Middle East Eye, Mary Atkinson noted: “Saudi Arabia’s participation in the anti-IS coalition, and now this large-scale new investment in US arms, looks likely to raise eyebrows among many.”She continues: “Saudi Arabia has long voiced fervent opposition to [Syrian President Bashar] Assad’s government, and has been involved in funding rebel groups throughout the drawn-out conflict. Added to the ambiguous outcomes of the current bombing campaign are long-standing allegations that Saudi Arabia has been responsible for funding groups like IS in Syria, or at the very least not doing enough to prevent its citizens from funnelling funds.”Both Flores and Mousavi argue that Yemen has become Saudi-backed militants’ new frontline in the Middle East, hence the kingdom’s drive to procure more weapons. America is indeed sharing disturbing links to terror, if not by intent, at least by association.

Yemen: Backing Saudis = Unleashing Al Qaeda Michael Brenner Senior Fellow, the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Professor of International Affairs, University of PittsburghCount Metternich's alleged comment in reaction to reports of Talleyrand's death is the most quoted remark in diplomatic history: 'I wonder what his motive is?" We can share his puzzlement today as the Obama administration ricochets from one crack-up to another in the Middle East: "I wonder what their thinking is?" we ask in bafflement. Yemen is the latest mishap where the American assisted Saudi bombardment of the Houthis (along with killing 1,000 civilians) has skidded to a sudden stop just short of the abyss. Washington policy is now stranded in no-man's-land with no way forward or back -- yet having already incurred major damage.

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We've seen this movie before. Ever since 9/11, successive Presidents have been imperiling the nation through rash actions whose aims and purposes defy reason. Or, more accurately, we have experienced two versions of the same basic script. For the Bushies' aggressive strategy did make sense in their own warped view of a world that they sought to dominate by force of arms. As Captain Ahab acknowledged: "all my means are rational; it is my end that is mad." The Obama people, by contrast, pursue obscure ends by senseless means. Together, they have left the region strewn with the wreckage of thwarted stratagems -- Iraq (twice), Afghanistan (twice), Somalia, Pakistan, Libya, Palestine, and now Yemen which is linked the potentially biggest crack-up of all, with Iran. There, we can't make up our mind whether to sup with "the Devil," if so with how long a spoon, or to open our arms to welcome the Rapture that will follow Armageddon. Yemen has drawn all these strands together in two ways. For one thing, Obama's actions there challenge the imagination to come up with a logical explanation of 'why." For another, it draws our attention to the illogicality of our attitude toward the tangle that is ISIL/Iraq/Syria. The contradictions and counter-intuitive diplomacy are all the more baffling for the administration's inability to offer even a semblance of a rationale. Indeed, it doesn't as much as try since the country has declined to ask for an explanation.

So let us see if we can decipher what meaning is hidden in the disconnected fragments available by a process of deduction. Begin with the basic question: What is the primary American interest? We know the answer to that one: to prevent any terrorist attack on the United States or its citizens. A threat that we ascribe to hostile Islamist groups of a jihadist character bent on violence: e.g. al-Qaeda & Associates, ISIL, et al. We seek to do so by attacking directly their leadership and organization, by undercutting their support base in bolstering other forces in the region that share our opposition to them, and ultimately by reconciling the current of Islamic fundamentalism running through the region with our presence and, ultimately, with our supposed goodwill. Toward this end, we have invaded and occupied two countries; we have spent blood and Treasure (roughly $2 trillion when the last bills are settled); we have set in chain conflicts that killed some hundreds of thousands of "natives."We have unsettled established states; we have sacrificed a good measure of the respect that America has enjoyed in the world; and we have degraded our own political liberties at home. We did all this because it was deemed necessary and worth it. The "war on terror" has defined the 21st century for Americans.For years now, President Obama and has senior security officials have told us that the gravest terrorist danger came from the AQ subsidiary al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsular (AQAP) based in Yemen. There is located that notorious master bomb maker and a hard-core of militants allegedly recruited by the now departed Awlaki. Washington has launched a sustained campaign against AQAP using drones or conventional air strikes, Special Forces and assorted clandestine operations. This was done first in collaboration with the government of long-time former dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh. Once he was forced from office in the wake of the Arab Spring (literally fire-bombed out of it), we connived with the Saudis to replace him with his Vice-President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. A weak, unpopular figure, Hadi nonetheless was our man who let us bomb to our heart's content. A prominent player in Yemen's turbulent politics are the Houthi tribes who represent about 30 percent of the population. They are a martial people who have protected their interests for decades from all those who threaten them. Their faith is a heterodox off-shoot of Shi'ism -- although historically they have been neither theologically nor politically close to the Persians with whom they share no land or sea border. They also are vehement enemies of AQAP. Indeed, they have fought them and fought them effectively.

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However, Hadi and his allies (which include his paymasters in Riyadh and his godfather in Washington) sought to marginalize the Houthis by rigging gubernatorial boundaries and gerrymandering election districts in a new constitution which he tried to impose surreptitiously -- bypassing agreed processes. Hadi did so not in his capacity as a legitimate President since his negotiated mandate had run out and he had failed to observe the agreed commitment to hold elections. The Houthis rebelled. They joined a political and military alliance with Saleh (our former good guy whom we had set up in a luxury Manhattan apartment after his overthrow) who retained the allegiance of a section of the armed forces. The rest we know. Out of this complex situation, the Obama White House crafted a simple, simplistic narrative. The Houthis were bad guys, they were instruments of the Iranians who are the source of nearly all evil deeds in the Middle East, they were a threat to our fraternal partners the Saudis who were increasingly spooked by the specter of an expansionist Shi'ite Iran which was about to be brought in from the cold -- and by any other change in the regional status quo. Therefore, they and we needed absolute control of what was going on in Yemen.

But what about AQAP -- our supposedly primary concern? They had been flexing their muscles amidst the political disorder in Sana'a and exploiting the weaknesses of Hadi's regime. That's the big question. The distressing answer is that the Obama administration decided that in fact containing/crushing it was not the primary American interest. It pivoted toward Riyadh -- accepting the Saudi view of the region which placed highest priority on thwarting Iranian/Shi'ite designs (real or imagined) by suppressing the Houthis. Hence, direct American support for the Saudi bombing campaign. That meant full diplomatic, material and Intelligence assistance. That meant accepting and broadcasting the fallacious line that Iran was to blame for Yemen's civil war using the Houthis as their "proxy."Two questions stand out: Do the Obama people actually believe this fictional account or are they just going along with it? Either way, why are they ready to pay such a steep price in facilitating the growth of AQAP (as has occurred during the month-long bombing campaign)? It is exceptionally hard to provide answers because the Obama people have offered no plausible explanation, and because no one has pressed them to give it. The demonization of Iran does conform to Washington's sustained campaign to depict Iran as an 'existential' threat in the Middle East -- to Israel, to Washington's other friends, in Syria, to reconciliation in Iraq, etc. Notwithstanding the prospects for a negotiated settlement of the nuclear issue, Obama persists in declaring that it has no linkage whatsoever to other points of contention. He stresses that the IRI is still seen as a hostile power. Détente with Tehran is out of the question. What this mumbo-jumbo means is that the Obama administration feels an overriding need to reassure the Saudi royal family that it is on their side in the confrontation with Iran, that it can be counted on to back them when they see their rule endangered (as by developments in Yemen -- however fanciful). Most important, that the United States will go so far as to set aside its obsession with al-Qaeda if necessary to secure its relationship with the KSA.

That leads us to our second question: What is so important in that relationship as to produce such a shocking trade-off? Well, there is the nuclear deal with Iran about which the Saudis are deeply unhappy. But what could the KSA do to derail it? In fact, not much. They don't have the clout in Washington that Israel has (although they have been in cahoots with Jerusalem in lobbying on that issue). There is not much trouble-making in the region that could discomfort the United States -- beyond what they already have done. It is the Saudi's who have promoted and unwritten a region-wide network of madrassas that have spawned the wave of fundamentalism across the Islamic world which posits the secular West -- led by the United States -- as Islam's mortal foe. The movement's most radical variants include al-Qaeda, the Taliban and now ISIL which are seen in Washington as America's greatest enemy. The Saudis, officially or otherwise, supplied indirect support to ISIL in its formative phases. They still have rejected the idea of providing any of the boots on the ground needed to defeat it.

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By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

They maintain close ties with al-Nusra, al-Qaeda's Syrian wing. Washington has not demanded, and has not received any accommodation on these paramount issues in exchange for its blanket support for the KSA in Yemen.The subordination of the war against terrorism to the undeclared war against Iran extends to Syria and Iraq. In the former, the Obama people have vacillated as to whether ISIL or Assad is the main enemy. As to al-Nusra, they have indicated a willingness to give it a pass insofar as targeting it as a hostile force is concerned. That permits Israel to enter into tactical alliances with al-Nusra against the Damascus government -- their number one foe in Syria.

This is justified by conjuring up a third force, the secularists/moderate Islamists, supposedly being trained in Jordan and Saudi Arabia to bolster the remnants of the original Syrian National Coalition resistance forces, the Free Syrian Army. To date, that third force as a major factor in the military equation exists only in the musings of Washington officials.

In Iraq, ISIL is designated as the clear enemy but Washington refuses to accept the hard fact that the Shi'ite militias, trained and backed by Iran, with approval of the Baghdad government, are the most effective force on the ground opposing them. There the disgraced Iraqi national army is presented as the Third Way despite its lamentable condition. Hence, the Obama administration persists in inveighing against the Iranian presence, refusing cooperation with the militias, and badgering the government to rein in both as the price for American air support is a central pillar of Washington's strategy. Once again, effectiveness in fighting the forces of terrorism loses its priority status as we pursue the wil'o wisps of dominating Iraq at the expense of Iran.

Back in Yemen, the American campaign against AQAP is stymied. The base from which drone strikes were launched, and Special Operations Forces operated, was evacuated just before it was overrun by AQAP irregulars. The base commander -- a Hadi loyalist -- fled to Saudi Arabia before the assault, appealing to his troops to stand down. Elsewhere, the elite Yemeni units trained by Central Command to fight AQAP were bombed by the Saudis, thereby degraded and leaderless.

None of this is justified in public. No arguments are made. The strategy is not debated. The incongruities are not noted. The closest we have gotten to anything like an official statement was Secretary Ashton 'Ash' Carter's off-the-cuff comment this week, in response to a question, that AQAP gains in Yemen, thanks to the Saudi bombing, were a concern but that simply meant that the United States had the redouble its efforts to protect itself -- and that was what it was doing. In summary: the United States government knowingly follows a course that leads to a strengthening of a terrorist group which the President has declared the gravest threat to the United States. But don't worry good citizens, just make sure to take off your shoes at airports and sleep soundly knowing that the NSA will continue to monitor your electronic communications without warrant.There are only two conclusions that can be drawn from this latest American misadventure in the Middle East. Either the Obama people have cynically exaggerated greatly the terrorist threat from AQAP -- or, they have recklessly endangered the American people. The greatest hoax in American history -- or, criminal negligence. There is no logical alternative

Where We Stand The KSA's announcement of a suspension to the bombing is an admission of defeat. It equally is a defeat for the United States. The difference is that Washington never admits defeat. The Houthis remain in domination of most of Yemen -- militarily and politically. Hadi is history. AQAP has strengthened its position significantly. The attempt by King Salman to solidify his leadership by laying down a marker in the Gulf has failed ignominiously. Instead of gaining stature as paramount head of a Sunni bloc, he -- and the KSA -- demonstrated their unsuitability for such an exalted role. Rebuffed by Pakistan

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By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, feel free to share: in Confidence

and Turkey, winning only empty promises from fellow Arab League members, the Saudis strode into the fight in splendid isolation to meet their dismal fate.

Brave -- perhaps; but it's not strategy. Saudi Arabia is diminished rather than enhanced. Both are correct in stating truths that Washington refuses to acknowledge. The Saudi royal family lost its bearings when frightened by the Arab Spring and its aftermath and has been rattled ever since. Characteristically level-headed and coldly calculating, they have become emotional and impulsive. Obama and his entourage chose the moment of denouement to hitch their wagon to this unhinged Saudi leadership. Late realization of high a price it was paying for misplaced loyalty, the Obama White House may have played a role in persuading King Salman to bring down the curtain on the tragic-comedy.

We do not know exactly how the KSA's failure on all counts in Yemen played into the factional rivalries of the royal family. It is reasonable to assume, though, that Salman's Sudairi branch of the royal family is under attack for their fecklessness by the opposing Tuwaïjris branch of late King Abdullah. As Chouet points out, that may explain the inconstancy of Saudis' newly announced partial bombing moratorium.

As for Obama, the White House spin machine will manage somehow to fudge this latest debacle -- at least in the eyes of an ever gullible American public. The fatal errors in their thinking and policies will not be confronted. The doctored tale already is taking shape. Obama's backing for the Saudis was an expedient act dictated by circumstances not of our making. Once it became clear that King Salman was going to attack the Houthis out of a deeply felt national interest, we had to show our solidarity. That gave us access to the Throne where we could offer counsels of caution aimed at preventing the conflict from spreading. The unilateral declaration of a ceasefire proves the wisdom of that course. Our tangible assistance was more than a sign of solidarity. By providing the Intelligence for identifying targets, we could minimize collateral civilian casualties. Were it not for us, even more dairies and food depots might have been hit 'accidentally'. In addition, we have maintained our viability as a constructive presence in the peace process soon to begin. It is true that we have redeployed our drone assets to Djibouti, but we retain the ability to strike critical targets in Yemen. Yes, American equipment and munitions contributed to heavy civilian casualties, and we did participate in the blockade that prevented delivery of food stuffs. Let's remember, though that the United States is the largest contributor to United Nations refugee and relief efforts. (To selective media types: "fortunes of war")Will this tall tale sell? Of course it will sell. The American public has been swallowing hokum like this for 15 years as if it were certified ambrosia and nectar. To this day, substantial majorities claim to believe that Saddam Hussein had something to do with 9/11 and that we did uncover WMD in Iraq. Using fairy tales as building blocks in the construction of a fanciful reality has become part of our national experience. As for the MSM and most of the commentariat, their critical faculties and capacity for autonomous thinking atrophied a long time ago. Anyway, Yemen has not cut very deeply into the American psyche. It soon will be eclipsed by the next chapter in the Iranian nuclear saga or some other Middle East problem.

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