1

ADVICE for the WISE

Newsletter – DECEMBER 2012

Economic Update 4

Equity Outlook 8

Debt Outlook 11

Forex 13

Commodities 14

Index Page No.

Contents

Real Estate 15

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From the Desk of the CIO…

“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 18”

Dear Investors,

2012 has been a year through which most of us were forced to

keep guessing the general sentiment and broad direction of

several capital markets – Indian equities, debt, forex, gold and

global equities. While the year started on a very positive note in

equities, subsequent developments added a lot of caution.

Having been through a fairly volatile mid-year, the tail end of the

year seems to be positively poised for equities. Debt was

another story. As the RBI remained steadfast in its emphasis on

inflation and thus a tight monetary policy after the one rate-cut

at the beginning of the year, the debt markets remained on

tenterhooks through most of the year. The much expected

monetary policy easing seems to have been postponed by a year

– from the beginning of 2012 to beginning of 2013. Rupee-Dollar

exchange rate remained unusually active throughout the year as

capital account moved between surplus and deficit due to equity

market movement and RBI’s attempts to stabilize the exchange

rate. Gold imports emerged as a key policy concern leading to

the subsequent import duty on the same – dampening the

upward move in gold prices after the quiet first half of 2012.

Looking back, 2012 turned out to be a mix of positive sentiments

and disappointments, false starts but also avoidance of

catastrophes. As we enter 2013, much of this uncertainty will

continue. The specific issues will differ for sure. However the

likelihood of switching back and forth between positive and

negative sentiments will remain high. In the immediate short

term, the resolution or lack thereof of the US Fiscal Cliff will

dominate the sentiments through December on the global front.

Domestically the proceedings of the winter session, the success

or failure of divestment program and the speculation on mid-

term polls will drive sentiment in equity and debt markets alike.

Our recommendations remain positive on equities and long term

debt. While the GDP growth numbers have been somewhat

below expectations, the investors in equity markets have started

discounting a positive policy movement in the winter session in

parliament and a muddle-through but definitive resolution of the

US Fiscal Cliff. For now, the optimism seems warranted – thus

our positive view. Should either or both of these be challenged

in the medium term, however, we would advise caution and

revise our view. That is because in absence of proactive steps

taken by Indian government, a revival in economic growth is

highly unlikely. If investors start to factor this into their pricing,

current valuations may start to look quite lofty. We, like

everyone else, for the good of nation as well as for upward

movement in debt and equity markets, are hoping for positive

policy measures from the Indian government in near future.

3

As on 30th Nov 2012

Change over last month

Change over last year

Equity Markets

BSE Sensex 19339 4.9% 19.9%

S&P Nifty 5879 5.0% 21.7%

S&P 500 1416 0.3% 13.6%

Nikkei 225 9446 6.8% 12.0%

Debt Markets

10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.18% 0 (56 bps)

Call Markets 8.02% (3 bps) (54 bps)

Fixed Deposit* 8.50% 0 (75 bps)

Commodity Markets

RICI Index 3733 1.8% 1.1%

Gold (`/10gm) 31459 1.7% 9.1%

Crude Oil ($/bbl) 110.8 0.9% (0.6%)

Forex

Markets

Rupee/Dollar 54.5 (0.8%) (4.3%)

Yen/Dollar 82.1 (3%) (5.1%)

Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets

10 yr Gsec

Gold

• Indicates SBI one-year FD •New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)

4

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

33000

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

`/$

7.50

7.70

7.90

8.10

8.30

8.50

8.70

8.90

US

Europe

Japan

Emerging economies

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in October, posted a moderate

increase in November. The Index now stands at 73.7 (1985=100), up from 73.1 in October.

• US GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.7% in Q3 as compared to the 2.0% growth previously reported

and as compared with 1.3%in Q2.

• The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.2 in November, from 45.4 in

October. The November PMI indicated that manufacturing conditions deteriorated at the slowest rate for

eight months, but the downturn clearly remains severe.

• The eurozone's unemployment rate rose to 11.7% in October, the highest level since the introduction of

the euro in 1999. Inflation in the 17-state eurozone fell sharply to 2.2% in November from 2.5% in

October.

Economy Update - Global

• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 46.5 in November, down from 46.5 in October signaling

further deterioration in the performance of the Japanese manufacturing sector.

• Japan approves a stimulus package of $10.7bn for spending on social programs, employment creation and

support for small and medium-size enterprises, in an effort to revive the stagnant economy.

• China’s HSBC PMI inched slightly higher to 50.5 in November from 49.5 in October signaling a marginal

improvement in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions. The final November manufacturing

PMI stood at a 13-month high of 50.5 on increasing new business and expanding production.

• India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI) posted 53.7 in November, up from the reading of 52.9 in

October, and signaling a further improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector. 5

Economy Outlook - Domestic

• The Indian economy grew by 5.3 per cent in the July-September

period of the current financial year (2012-13), pulled down by

poor performance of manufacturing and agriculture sectors,

showing persistent signs of slowdown. The gross domestic

product (GDP) had expanded by 6.7 per cent in the same period

of last fiscal. During the three-month period ended September

30, the manufacturing sector grew marginally by 0.8 per cent,

against 2.9 per cent growth in the same period of 2011-12

• The economic growth in the first six month of this fiscal (April-

September) is 5.4 per cent, lower than 7.3 per cent growth

clocked in the year-ago period

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) sharply lowered the economic

growth projection to 5.8%, from 6.5%, projected earlier. The

growth rate in 2011-12 slipped to a nine-year low of 6.5%.

GDP growth

• Industrial output once again contracted by 0.4% in September

2012. Even the growth for the previous month has been revised

downwards to 2.3% from 2.7% reported earlier. This was due to

huge contraction in capital goods and consumer durables. Industrial

output growth for the first half of this fiscal now stands at mere

0.1% as against 5.1% for the same period last fiscal.

• Manufacturing output having the highest weight in the IIP,

witnessed a contraction of 1.5 per cent in September 2012. Some

relief although came from mining and electricity sectors which

grew at 5.5 and 3.9 per cent respectively.

• The August IIP figures show that manufacturing, with 75.5% weight

in the index, has grown a credible 2.9%. But note that for April-

August, the growth in manufactures is actually zero.

IIP

6

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11

Dec 11

Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12

Apr 12 May 12

Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12

Sep 12

8.3

7.8 7.7

6.9

6.1

5.3 5.5

5.3

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2)

Economic Outlook - Domestic

As on October 2012 end, Bank credits grew by 16% on a Y-o-Y

basis which is about 3.5% lower than the growth witnessed in

October 2011. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at

13.5%, viz-a viz a growth of 17.8% in October2011.

On 30th October 2012, Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate-

the key policy rate-unchanged in its mid quarter monetary policy

review, however it cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points

to 4.25%. The 25-basis point cut in CRR is expected to release

around Rs 17,500 crore into the system.

The RBI explained the CRR reduction as a forward-looking

measure to address the liquidity pressures expected to arise

in the near term on account of the seasonal pickup in credit

growth in the second half of the fiscal year; and increase in

currency demand related to the onset of the festive season in

India.

Inflation declined marginally to 7.45% in October even though

prices of food items like rice, wheat pulses and potato showed

a rise. Inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index

(WPI), was 7.81% in September. In October last year, however,

it stood at 9.87%. Inflation for August was revised upwards to

8.01% from 7.55% as per provisional estimates.

For the fuel and power category, inflation moderated to 11.71%

from 11.88%. However, diesel prices increased by 14.60%

during the month. Core inflation eased to 5.2% from 5.6% last

month.

Retail inflation in October 2012, based on a new, broad-based

consumer index, rose to 9.75%, from a 9.73% reading in the

month of September 2012 on the back of a sharp increase in

prices of sugar, pulses, vegetable oils and edible oils.

Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs

* End of period figures 7

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

Wholesale Price Index

9.0%

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

17.0%

19.0%

21.0%

23.0%

25.0%

Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits

Equity Outlook

In the month of November, markets ended on a positive note with Nifty making new calendar year highs. FII’s continued to prefer

India over other emerging markets taking the year till date investment number to INR 100,000 crores. Markets rose on renewed

hopes of reform initiatives by the Government, as the deadlock on FDI in multi-brand retail seemed to have ended. There are

expectations that insurance and Pension bills might also get passed. The much talked about National Investment Board under Prime

Minister is expected to be announced soon which will give clearances to some big ticket infrastructure projects.

Action from international lenders to reduce Greek debt and optimism from US lawmakers on fixing the fiscal cliff issue also boosted

investor's sentiment globally. US economy seems to be in fine shape with Q3GDP growth at 2.7%. US economy seems to be turning

positive with expectations of strong Q4 growth. While Euro area continues to struggle with low growth, the probability of a financial

accident happening has reduced considerably

Indian economy grew by 5.3% in Q2FY13, pulled down by poor performance of manufacturing and agriculture sectors. The capital

formation activity was better than last quarter raising hopes that the capex cycle bottomed out last quarter. Q3 number should also

be subdued as the full effect of weak monsoons would be seen when Kharif crop is harvested this quarter. However, we believe that

the worst is already behind us. With services growing at robust 7.5%, full year number should stabilize at 5.7%. We believe that the

steps taken by the Government on the fiscal front will give RBI the necessary cushion to carry out rate cuts in January which will help

in reviving growth.

Q2FY13 results season has ended with consumption, healthcare, private sector banks and IT delivering results that were in line or

above expectations. Metals, PSU Banks and auto were the sectors that underperformed estimates. We are expecting a 12% growth in

earnings for FY13 and 14% earnings growth in FY14. With broader market trading at 13 times FY14 earnings, there is still a lot of

valuation support. With the worst in economy behind us, we believe that investors should increase allocation to equity at every-dip. 8

Sector Stance Remarks

BFSI Overweight

The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to

increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to

better management quality and higher balance sheet discipline.

FMCG Overweight

We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such

as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately

higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.

Automobiles Overweight

Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also

getting cheaper. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to

lesser competition and higher pricing power.

Healthcare Neutral

We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in

generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the

developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian

pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. However, the government policy of putting price

control on selected drugs might cause some short term pressure on stock prices.

E&C Neutral

The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the

sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive

on this space.

Sector View

9

Sector Stance Remarks

Telecom Neutral The regulatory hurdles and competitive pressures seem to be reducing. Incumbents have started

to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.

Cement Neutral Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a

strong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.

Power Utilities Neutral We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in

earnings and decent return on capital.

IT/ITES Underweight

With the US and European customers of Indian IT companies are struggling, Order inflows might

slow down in near term. Most companies are loosing pricing power due to high competitive

intensity. Rupee appreciation will put pressure on margins in the near term

Energy Underweight We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying

economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.

Metals Underweight Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about

growth in China and developed parts of the world.

Sector View

10

Debt Outlook

• A somewhat disappointing October RBI policy and INR 65,000 crores of bond supply during November, reflected on market sentiment with the 10 year government bond yield grinding to 8.23% during the month.

• Indian government's fiscal deficit rose 19.8% on year to Rs 3.68 lakh cr in April-October 2012, on account of a sharp slowdown in receipts.

• After remaining range-bound throughout the last week of November, the G-Sec market rallied on 30th November in the wake of an OMO announcement made by RBI previous day post market hours. The benchmark 10-year security 8.15% GOI 2022 closed the week at 8.18%.

• The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond increased marginally to 82 Bps on 30th November 2012 from 78 Bps(as on 31st October 2012). The 30th November 2012 AAA Rated bond yields saw no change when compared to the yields a month earlier at 9%.

10-yr G-sec yield Yield curve

(%)

(%)

11

7.8

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

8.6

0.0

0.8

1.6

2.4

3.2

4.0

4.7

5.5

6.3

7.1

7.9

8.7

9.5

10

.2

11

.0

11

.8

12

.6

13

.4

14

.2

15

.0

15

.7

16

.5

17

.3

18

.1

18

.9

19

.7

7.50

7.70

7.90

8.10

8.30

8.50

8.70

8.90

Debt Strategy

Outlook Category Details

Long Tenure Debt

With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with a 25 bps CRR cut in October 2012 Monetary Policy and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, and signals of future cuts in the policy rates in the coming quarter, we would recommend to start investing in the Longer term papers and hold on to the current investments as well. These, while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.

Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.

With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with a 25 bps CRR cut in October 2012 Monetary Policy and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, we would recommend investment in short term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too ( Next probable cut in the Quarter Jan-March 2013). Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9%–9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities.

Short Tenure Debt

Credit

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Forex

• INR has depreciated against three major currencies. INR depreciated by 0.75% against the US Dollar. Rupee has depreciated against dollar since the beginning of the calendar year by 2.25%

• Growth and inflation worries in India keeps Indian currency rate under pressure. After starting July with strong gains, the rally started to fizzle out towards the second half but ended the month with an appreciation.

• During the month Re. hit a low of 55.70 on 27th November, then regained and closed the month at 54.52. One of the reasons for the rupee to strengthen back is that the Finance Ministry increased FII investment limits in government securities and corporate bonds by $5 billion each.

Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data

• The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.

• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.

-10000

40000

90000

140000

FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)

Capital Account Balance

Exports during October, 2012 were valued at US $ 23.25 bn which was 1.63% lower than the level of US $ 23.63 bn during October, 2011. Imports during October, 2012 were valued at US $ 44.20 Bn representing a negative growth of 7.37% over the level of imports valued at US $ 41.18 Bn in October, 2011 translating into a trade deficit of $20.96 Bn.

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

-20

0

20

40

60 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)

13

-0.75% -0.47%

-1.04%

2.75%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

USD GBP EURO YEN

Commodities

Precious

Metals

Oil & Gas

As the central bankers across the world pumping liquidity into the system, oil prices are unlikely to see any major fall. Combined. Oil prices are likely to be firmer after an industry report showed stockpiles shrank to the lowest in more than five months in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer. Expect prices to move higher.

Crude

Gold

We continue to maintain our bullish stance on gold on a medium to longer time frame following the bond purchase program of ECB and easy liquidity regime. While the gold in USD terms continue to move higher, rupee denominated gold went into consolidation phase following a sharp rise in rupee, thereby keeping domestic prices under the lid. Having said that, gold is entering into its seasonally best quarter and one can expect only prices to go north. The current consolidation phase should be used to accumulate for the long term.

25000

26000

27000

28000

29000

30000

31000

32000

33000

14

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Residential

With new DCR regulations Mumbai market saw some confidence

coming back for investors. Rates remained at peak levels and

shows no sign of stress. The sales in many premium pockets have

seen over 60% plunge. Thane and Panvel sees lot of end user

transactions. All other prime markets like Pune, Banaglore,

Chennai, Hyderabad, NCR are seeing rate stagnancy well over 2

quarters now. With new supply being announced every month,

the stress on sales continues. Given the overall average of these

markets, any project having Rs. 4000 per sqft entry point with a

good developer sees lot of interest (keeping the unit size well

under 1500 sqft)

Prices surged since last quarter, factors being

largely growth of infrastructure and young aspiring

first time home. Cities like Jaipur, Bhopal,

Trivandrum, Madurai, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh

highly attractive for apartments in 600-1100 sqft

range

Commercial/IT

Lease transactions are under pressure and new rate/sqft trends

getting established in all major IT driven pockets/cities. Mumbai

still manages to stay afloat due to heavy investment in small

office spaces from investors

Very less benchmarks available but the rents are

growing 8-10% every year for commercial

properties in Tier-II cities

Real Estate Outlook

15

Asset Classes Tier I Tier II

Retail

Still to re-cover from the 2008 shock, many malls have

been experiment grounds for retailers. The FDI is well

awaited for re-starting the retail phenomenon in major

cities. 60% of the mall in India are not even 60% occupied

and if occupied, unable to get rent on time. Investment in

prime mall spaces can get good returns due to opening up

of FDI.

Hi-street rules the roost, the mall culture is repeated

beaten in the Tier-2 markets and predominantly seeing a

re-structure of plans to suit schools, hospitals, commercial

offices, call centers, super-market etc

Land

30-40 kms radius near in prime markets are becoming

expensive month on month. Interest from investors has

drawn lot of attention in well connected areas.

Land has given better appreciation in these markets than

Tier 1, since there is a natural demand to own land

property. Also, scarcity in old locations and new upcoming

areas due to infrastructure is making many invaluable land

valuable

Real Estate Outlook

Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter

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Why Karvy Private Wealth?

We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level : • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class

Open Architecture – Widest array of products

Intensive Research

We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio

When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-S Service Promise” :

• Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products

The KPW 3-S Service promise:

Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like all banks do.

Honest, unbiased advise

A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management, private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.

Pedigreed Senior Management Team

17

Disclaimer

The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group

companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the

accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on

their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any

information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of

Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to

time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that

they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other

securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further

restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their

respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new

Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments

Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations.

Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at:

702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 .

(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034)

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INP000001512” 18

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