1. 1ADVICE for the WISENewsletter MAY 2013

2. Economic Update 4Equity Outlook 8Debt Outlook 11Forex 13Commodities 14Index Page No.ContentsReal Estate 152 3. Overall OutlookAdvisory services are provided through Karvy Capital having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 17Dear Investors,Indian economy is at a crucial juncture. Growth has slowed down to multi-year low. Interest rates have just about started to come down. Inflation,though falling, continues to be high (especially consumer price inflation).Sustained high interest rate environment and a climate of uncertaintyglobally that persisted through much of 2012 has taken a serious toll onthe confidence of the decision makers in the real sector in Indianeconomy. These low confidence levels led to low private investment fromcompanies. High interest rates kept real estate and automobile drivenspending to a minimum. The governance logjam due to a series of scam-related crises for the government meant very slow pace of publicinvestments in infrastructure as well as slow approvals of PPP projects.Taken together these factors contributed to a historic low in terms ofinvestment activity. That has two ill-effects. For one it reduces the growthin the short term by reducing total expenditure. Secondly it also slowsdown the capacity building in the economy. The latter has the effect ofcredit off-take fueling inflation when the sentiment does turn aroundeventually and aggregate demand does pick up. Seen alternately,investments serve the dual purpose of adding to income now and capacitylater. A high growth economy like Indias cannot really afford too long aperiod of slow growth. There is a real possibility of a vicious cycle wherebythe low investment at present leads to slower capacity addition which inturn hampers future growth if the growth pick-up leads to overheatingand clampdown by the central bank through higher interest rates andslowdown in investment activity.Mercifully, the evolution of any large economy is not as linear as thatwhile the government taking high growth for granted is a serious concern,the common persons and companies doing so is a savior. So long as lowgrowth does not become established in the minds of majority of theeconomic participants, higher consumption and investment activities arelikely to pick up in a suitable economic climate. This is why ourobservation about the Indian economy being at a crucial juncture. Nowmore than ever is a time when Indian economy can slip into long termgrowth rate of 5% or rebound to 7.5%-8% - a choice largely driven bywhat Keynes referred to as the animal spirits of the participants in theeconomy. A mix of accommodative monetary policy, project-furtheringgovernance, pick-up in real estate prices and equity markets and lack of amajor political upheaval should do the trick for the high growth outcome.The high risk appetite globally has kept the Indian equity valuationsbuoyant implicitly assuming the best case growth scenario to return. Weexpect this special treatment of Indian equities to continue. On the debtfront, the disappointment of the RBI policy for some market participantspushed the rapidly falling yields before the policy up again. The seculardirection of long term yields is flat to downwards though. Hence we haveshifted our stance to positive on the long term debt front. We continue tobe suspicious of gold since the global institutional buyers have started todesert their once favorite asset maybe because global inflation did notstrike despite money printing across US, EU and Japan, maybe becausethey wish to avoid the rush-to-exit of an overvalued asset. In either case,there is too much risk betting against the selling pressure of the hoards ofgold ETF holders.3 4. As on 30thApril 2013Change overlast monthChange overlast yearEquityMarketsBSE Sensex 19504 3.5% 12.6%S&P Nifty 5930 4.4% 13.0%S&P 500 1598 1.8% 14.8%Nikkei 225 13861 11.8% 45.6%Debt Markets10-yr G-Sec Yield 7.73% (23 Bps) (94 bps)Call Markets 7.77% (595 Bps) 62 BpsFixed Deposit* 8.75% 0 Bps (50 bps)CommodityMarketsRICI Index 3572 (3.6%) (5.7%)Gold (`/10gm) 27135 (7.8%) (7.0%)Crude Oil ($/bbl)(As on 29th April)102.8 (5.1%) (13.3%)ForexMarketsRupee/Dollar 54.2 0.31% (3.13%)Yen/Dollar 97.83 (3.8%) (18.0%)Economic Update - Snapshot ofKey Markets10 yr GsecGold Indicates SBI one-year FDNew 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)4758595105115125135145155 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 2252500026000270002800029000300003100032000330007.40007.60007.80008.00008.20008.40008.60008.8000505152535455565758`/$ 5. USEuropeJapanEmergingeconomies The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in March, increased in April.The Index now stands at 68.1 (1985=100), up from 61.9 in March. US unemployment rate came at four year low to 7.5% in April 2013, signaling that the US job market isimproving. Gross domestic product(GDP) rose at a 2.5% annual pace in the first three months of the year, drivenlargely by a pick-up in consumer spending. The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in 10 months by a quarter percentage pointto a record low 0.50%. Euro-zones Manufacturing PMI fell down slightly to 46.7 in April 2013 from 46.8 in March, signalingcontraction for the twenty-first successive month. Euro-zone manufacturing started the second quarter of2013 on a weak footing, with conditions in the sector deteriorating at the sharpest pace in the year-to-date.Economy Update - Global Japans Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 51.1 in April 2013 up from 50.4 in March 2013 signaling asolid growth performance, maintaining the trend that was observed in the first quarter of the year andlatest anecdotal evidence suggests a weaker yen is playing a part in the expansion by raising exportvolumes. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in March 2013, its lowest level witnessed sinceNovember 2008 and up from 4.2% in January 2013. Chinas HSBC PMI posted a reading of 50.4 in April 2013 down from 51.6 in March 2013, signaling aslower growth of manufacturing activities. Chinese economy grew at 7.7% in quarter ending March 2013, slower than 7.9% in quarter endingDecember 2012. Indias HSBC PMI posted a reading of 51.0 in April 2013 down from reading of 52.0 in March 2013,signaling a lackluster growth in domestic orders coupled with a power shortage that disrupted industrialactivity. 5 6. Economy Outlook - Domestic The countrys gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 10-yearlow of 4.5% during the third quarter of the current financialyear, hurt by a slowdown in agriculture, mining andmanufacturing, pushing the projected annual growth rate downfurther. The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 6%in the same period of last fiscal. The economic growth in the first nine months of this fiscal(April-December) stood at 5%. The manufacturing sector grewan annual 2.5% during the quarter while farm output rose just1.1% & mining fell by 1.4%. The Industrial sector slightly rebounded to 3.3% during thequarter from 2.7% y-o-y in the June quarter and 2.6% in thecorresponding quarter of the previous year. Indias GDP growthpegged at 6.1%-6.7% for FY14; FY13 growth seen 5.0%. Indiaskey eight core sector growth expands 3.9% in January following2.5% growth in December.GDP growth Indias industrial production growth slowed to 0.6 per cent inFebruary from 2.4 per cent in January. The Y-O-Y growth in capitalgoods at use-based level at 9.5% was unexpected. At this rate, theweighted contribution of capital goods to IIP growth was thehighest since, Feb 2012. In the April-February period, industrialproduction expanded an annual 0.9%. At the sectoral level, mining sector registered a de-growth at 8.1%and electricity sector growth declined by 3.2% (the first time sincethe new IIP series was introduced in FY2005.). Consumer sectorperformance also turned tepid with a visible slowdown in bothdurables and non-durables. The cumulative growth in the three sectors during April-February2012-13 over the corresponding period in the previous year was -2.5%, 1% and 4% respectively.IIP67.8 7.76.96.15.35.55.34.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.0FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2) FY13(Q3)-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%Feb12Mar12Apr12May12Jun12Jul12Aug12Sep12Oct12Nov12Dec12Jan13Feb13 7. Economic Outlook - Domestic As on Mar 2013 Bank credits grew by 11.9% on a Y-o-Y basiswhich is about 7.6% lower than the growth witnessed in Mar2012. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 10.5%, viz-aviz a growth of 17.4% in Mar 2012. In keeping with the guidance and an increasingly benign stance,RBI reduced the repo rate by 25 bps to 7.25% in its monetarypolicy as of 3rd May 2013. While doing so, it also emphasizedthat supporting growth is going to be a priority in days ahead. Itkept the others rates. The key triggers favoring the rate cut seem to be lowertrajectory of WPI and core inflation, lower GDP data thananticipated and of course the governments intent to rein in thefiscal deficit. The annual rate of inflation based on the wholesale price index hita three-year low of 5.96% in March 2013, helped by a fall invegetable prices. The wholesale price-based inflation rate stood at6.84% in the previous month and 7.69% during the correspondingmonth of the previous year. This was the lowest rate sinceNovember 2009. However, the inflation rate for January 2013 has now been revisedupward to 7.31% from the provisional figure of 6.62% estimatedearlier. Food inflation in Primary Articles came down to 8.73%from 11.88% in February 2013, while it declined to 7.01% from8.16% in the case of Manufactured Products. Indias annual inflation rate, based on all India general ConsumerPrice Index, or CPI, as per base year 2010, for February 2013slowed to 10.39% in March from an annual 10.91% in February.The retail inflation for the month under review remained in thedouble-digit territory for third month in a row, due to higher pricesof vegetables, cereals, edible oil, and protein-based items.Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs* End of period figures75.0%7.0%9.0%11.0%13.0%15.0%17.0%19.0%21.0%Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%Wholesale Price Index 8. Equity OutlookThe month of April saw a sharp cool-off in commodity prices. Gold and crude prices have corrected by more than 12% since early Januarybringing a much needed respite for Indias Current Account situation. Concerns on fiscal deficit are also getting addressed as fuel & fertilizersubsidies come down with fall in crude prices. Foreign investors have continued to invest in Indian equity with an inflow of one billion dollarsin April taking the YTD number to 11 billion dollars.WPI Inflation for the month of April has touched a forty month low. WPI index has moderated to an average of 7.3% in FY13 with significanteasing coming in the month of March as against average of 8.9% in FY12. This recent downward trajectory of WPI inflation has paved the wayfor further monetary easing by RBI. We expect 75-100bps cut in repo rates this fiscal as inflation continues to cool-off. This should lead to arevival in GDP growth in the second half of this year. The first repo cut of this fiscal happened last week as RBI shifts the focus to revivinggrowth. Indias GDP growth witnessed an expansion of 4.5% in Q3FY13 which is lowest in last 15 quarter attributed to lower than expectedgrowth in both industry and services. RBI highlighted that economic activity is expected to show only a modest improvement over last year,with a pick-up likely only in the second half of the year. Conditional upon a normal monsoon, agricultural growth could return to trend levels.RBI believes that growth cannot revive unless there is a revival in the investment cycle. RBI has forecasted FY14 GDP growth at 5.7% which isbelow consensus market estimates.While headline wholesale price inflation and its core component, non-food manufactured products inflation, have softened, the consumerprice inflation continues to be at elevated levels. RBIs view is that inflation should moderate to 5% in FY14 consider the softening in globalcommodity and forecast of a normal monsoon. RBI believes that the onus of reviving the investment cycle lies with central government and itexpects further reform action in that direction before easing monetary policy further.The fourth quarter results of Indian companies have been more or less on expected lines. Private sector banks & consumer staples continueto do well. We expect a 12% growth in corporate earnings this fiscal with good showing from private banks, Healthcare & consumercompanies. The EBITDA Margins of Indian manufacturing firms will get better as commodity prices cool off. Oil & Gas companies will benefitfrom the cool-off in commodity prices. The markets continue to trade at attractive valuations and investors should look to increase exposureto equity at every dip.8 9. Sector Stance RemarksHealthcare OverweightWe believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. Indias strength ingenerics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With thedeveloped world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indianpharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth.BFSI OverweightThe reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead toincrease in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due tobetter management quality and higher balance sheet disciplineFMCG OverweightWe like the secular consumption theme. We prefer discretionary consumption beneficiaries suchas Cigarettes, IT hardware, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will bedisproportionately higher vis--vis the increase in disposable incomes.Telecom NeutralThe regulatory hurdles and competitive pressures seem to be reducing. Incumbents have startedto increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.E&C NeutralThe significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt thesector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructiveon this space.Sector View9 10. Sector Stance RemarksIT/ITES NeutralDemand seems to be coming back in Europe. US volume growth has also remained resilient.However, the new Immigration bill in US might make the outsourcing business more challengingfor Indian PlayersAutomobiles NeutralRaw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are alsogetting cheaper. We are more bullish on SUVs and agricultural vehicles segment due to lessercompetition and higher pricing power.Energy NeutralWith the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSUs willcome down during the course of the year. We are turning more constructive on the space now.Power Utilities NeutralWe like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth inearnings and decent return on capital.Metals UnderweightCommodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns aboutgrowth in China and developed parts of the world.Cement UnderweightCement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking astrong view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.Sector View10 11. Debt Outlook During the week the G-sec market remained range-bound ahead of RBI monetary policy During the week, the Gsec marketremained range bound ahead of RBI monetary policy. RBIs 25 bps rate cut and RBIs emphasis to use OMO as liquiditymanagement tool helped in providing support to market despite its hawkish statement. The benchmark 10-year security 8.15%GOI 2022 closed the month at7.74% In T-bill auction, RBI auctioned 91 days T-bill (Rs. 5000 cr) and 364 days T-bill (Rs. 5000 cr) with cut-off yield of 7.56% (Previous :7.64%) and 7.48% (Previous : 7.58%) respectively. Indias fiscal deficit in Apr-Feb, the first eleven months of the current financial year, rose 2.8% on year to Rs 5.074 lakh cr; fiscaldeficit was Rs 41680 cr in February versus Rs 58600 cr a year ago. The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond reduced to 79 Bps on 30th April 2013 from 89 Bps (as on 28th March 2013).AAA Rated bond yields dipped by 33 bps to 8.52% as compared to the yields a month earlier at 8.85%.10-yr G-sec yieldYield curve(%)(%)117.40007.60007.80008.00008.20008.40008.60008.80007.07.27.47.67.88.08.28.40.00.81.62.43.24.04.75.56.37.17.98.79.510.211.011.812.613.414.215.015.716.517.318.118.919.7 12. Debt StrategyOutlookCategory DetailsLong TenureDebtIndian long term debt is likely to see capital appreciation owing to the expectedmonetary easing. With the fourth policy rate cut happening in March 2013, witha 25 Bps cut in Repo and no CRR along with lesser probability of future cuts inthe policy rates in the coming quarter, but along with this is a lot of uncertaintyin the market. Along with the above mentioned things, commodity pricescooling down, Current account deficit will reduce to a great extent, and thesepapers are suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for themedium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want tolock in high yields for the longer term.Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the currentyields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidityin the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entryat current levels attractive.With the fourth policy rate cut that happened in May 2013, with a 25 Bps cutin Repo rate and no CRR along with lesser probability of future cuts in thepolicy rates in the coming quarter, but as there is influence of global factors inthe market, a lot of uncertainty is coupled with it, hence, we wouldrecommend to invest in and hold on to current investments in short termdebt Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a hugeborrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds stillhave high YTMs (9%9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities.Short TenureDebtCredit12 13. Forex INR has appreciated against two major currencies other than Euro& GBP. INR appreciated by 0.3% against the US Dollar. Rupee hasappreciated against dollar since the beginning of the calendar yearby 1.03%. The rupee has been vacillating in a range between 54 and 55 overthe last two months. Within this range, the currency has ralliedfrom the low of 54.9 to 53.8 against the dollar since April 5. Thiswas mainly due to expectation of policy rate cut in the RBIsmonetary policy Volatility as last year is expected to continue as the rupee wouldtrack cues from the domestic markets as well as global shores. IfUS economy recovers, the dollar will rally, putting the rupee underpressureRupee movement vis--vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revisedfrom Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was reviseddownwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores. We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract moreinvestments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIswould also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty inthe global markets could prove to be a dampener.68531 73903 755129903366748372989550078800-100004000090000140000FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)Capital Account BalanceExports during Mar, 2013 were valued at US $ 30.85 bn whichwas 6.97% higher than the level of US $ 28.84 bn during Mar,2012. Imports during Mar, 2013 were valued at US $ 41.16 Bnrepresenting a negative growth of 2.87% over the level ofimports valued at US $ 42.38 Bn in Mar 2012 translating into atrade deficit of $10.31 Bn.130.3%-2.0% -2.0%4.1%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%USD GBP EURO YEN-25000-20000-15000-10000-50000-20-100102030Export Import Trade Balance (mn $) 14. CommoditiesPreciousMetalsOil & GasWhile the expectation of steadier global growth is a good news forthe oil counter given the excess liquidity available, the growthconcerns in China will cap any upside. In the energy sufficient USA,there is a structural shift towards Shale Gas production amid crudeoil inventories ruling at 30 year high. With no supply disruption insight amid feeble global growth, we expect lower energy prices.CrudeGoldHaving risen consecutively for eleven years, dollar-gold price performanceis one of the best among other asset classes, generating an annualizedreturn of 18%. The global financial system was flood with central banksliquidity that had risen risk asset in the year 2012 and this is expected tofurther lift risk asset prices in the year 2013. Given this backdrop, onecould expect a decent profit booking on the precious metal counter as themoney flow shall now be diverted to equities that was under owned since2008. We also expect liquidity to dry up significantly around end of 1QCYfollowing the ECBs LTROs amid a sharp pull back in dollar index -followingthe Feds signal to wind down the stimulus program this year - couldrattle global commodity prices. The controlled measures by the centralbankers to curb gold demand with a prime objective being to shore upconfidence in the monetary and banking system, bullion in all probabilitywill not be a free market. As bullion derivatives market is far larger thanthe size of physical metal, a small trigger is sufficient enough to create abig impact. Domestically, it now seems that gold has formed anintermediate top and one could see considerable price pull back goingahead in the year 2013.1425000260002700028000290003000031000320003300060708090100110120130 15. 15Real Estate OutlookAsset Classes Tier I Tier IIResidentialA lot of new supply has been seen in the Tier I markets across all pricesegments, especially in NCR-Delhi and Mumbai, owing to faster approvals andexpectations of a sales recovery due to the reduction in the home loaninterest rates.While some of the new launches have selectively seen a good response,overall sales have still been slow and prices continued to be stagnant in mostmarkets.Mid-income residential segment with Rs. 4,000 6,000 per sq. ft. entrypricing with good developers in Pune, Bangalore, NCR and Mumbai suburbsare expected to see good percentage returns with relatively low risk.Implications of Budget 2013: The additional one-time tax exemption of Rs.1,00,000 for home loans below Rs. 25 Lacs is expected to give a slight push inthe affordable housing segment. TDS of 1% on all properties above Rs. 50 lacsafter May 2013 and increase in service tax from 3.09% to 3.71% for flats above2,000 sq. ft. in size or Rs. 1 Cr. in value may act as dampeners for sale of midto high end residential space.Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend towardsnuclear families, increasing disposable income, risingaspiration to own quality products and the growth ininfrastructure facilities in these cities. Price appreciation ismore concentrated to specific micro-markets in these cities.Cities like Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal,Nagpur, Patna and Cochin are expected to perform well.Commercial/ITPrices for the commercial asset class continue to be dampened due to thehistoric oversupply. In terms of absorption, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Punemarkets are doing better than the national average.Rentals in commercial asset class are seen to be rising slowly but they are stillbelow the peal values achieved in the past. In relative terms, Bangaloremarket has outperformed other markets owing primarily to the demand fromthe IT industry.Specific pre-leased properties with good tenant profile and larger lock-inperiods continue to be good investment opportunities over a long-termhorizon.Relatively low unsold inventory and smaller unit sizes haveled to stable lease rentals in Tier II cities. Not muchmovement in the capital values has been seen in the Tier IIcities. 16. Real Estate Outlook16Please Note:Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and KolkattaTier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I marketsAsset Classes Tier I Tier IIRetailIn HY2 2012, Government approved 51% foreignownership in multi-brand retail and 100% in single-brandretail. While this move is expected to infuse newenthusiasm in the sector, it will take a gestation period ofat least an year for this to translate into actual off-take ofspace. In fact, completion of a number of malls has beendelayed to defer the construction costs and capitalize onthe expected future demand from FDI.Currently, unsold inventory levels continue to be highlevels and lease rentals stagnant.Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as comparedto mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on theserentals gets reported, these are expected to have beenstagnant.The mall culture has repeatedly failed in the past n theTier-2 cities. Whether the FDI in retail can change thisphenomenon can be known with more certainty once theeffect of FDI is more visible in Tier I cities.LandAgricultural / non-agricultural lands with connectivity toTier I cities and in proximity to upcoming industrial andother infrastructure developments present goodinvestment opportunities. Caution should however beexercised due to the complexities typically involved inland investments.Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / establishedgrowth corridors have seen good percentage appreciationdue to low investment base in such areas. 17. DisclaimerThe information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Capital Ltd. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and uponsources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal informationand we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not besingularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Theinvestments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. 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