1. 1 ADVICE for the WISE Newsletter SEPTEMBER 2014

2. Economic Update 4 Equity Outlook 8 Debt Outlook 13 Forex 15 Real Estate Outlook 16 Index Page No. Contents 2

3. From the Desk of the CIO Advisory services are provided through Karvy Capital having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide 17 Dear Investors, Economic as well as capital market sentiment continued to improve through last month. While some concerns on international front have continued to keep everyone guessing, the consensus regarding domestic economic growth seems to be narrowing towards a decidedly positive forecast. In several sectors of real economy, there are instances of revival of activity. On policy front too, early measures in allowing higher FDI in some sectors (railways, defence, real estate) have been encouraging development. However, the positive sentiment is due also to lower inflation numbers over last two months and the consequent hope of loosening of monetary policy. The headline numbers can be misleading though. For one, as RBI clearly noted in its commentary in the monetary policy review in first week of last month, the base effect of high CPI values same period last year has started to exert a statistical downward pressure on inflation numbers. Secondly, the food and fuel inflation still remain high and can quickly jump to higher levels if the troubles in Middle East force crude oil prices up. As was widely expected, RBI kept the repo rate unchanged. The macro factors outside of any agencys direct control have turned more benign through last month. Firstly, the expected shortfall in monsoon was much lower than earlier estimate. Secondly, crude oil price continued to fall. A major shortfall in monsoon would have been quite perilous to food prices and thus any hope of near term monetary loosening in fact in such a scenario, tightening was also possible. The Russia-Ukraine standoff seemed ominous few weeks ago. While still a concern, its intensity is much lower now. Lastly, the fears of interest rate increase by the US Fed have reduced in recent weeks after assuring statements by the Fed governor. In recent years, any new governments first 100 days in office have come to be regarded as a crucial period at least insofar as public perception of the governments performance is concerned. There have been several assessments of the NDA government at centre along these lines. In general, the tone of most of the assessments continues to be positive, even if cautious. There has been a welcome maintenance of low profile in media by the government. We consider this to be a hopeful sign of the government getting down to the non-glamorous business of carrying out true reforms on multiple fronts most of which are, however crucial, not headline material. The government has done well to keep parliament productive and pushing through some reforms. It has also done well to get a major push on foreign policy front. There is still no progress though on several long-stalled reforms like GST and DTC as well as investor-confidence-building steps like doing away with retrospective tax provisions. On the arguably trickiest matter of labor reforms, the government seems to be moving in small steps and indirectly as is evident from the discussion of so-called Rajasthan model, where a BJP-led state government is experimenting with gradual reform in labor laws. We hope this is part of (or at least drives) a medium term strategy to introduce meaningful labor reforms across the country. Our overall assessment of the governments performance is that there are grounds for continued hope of economic revival. 3

4. As on 25th Aug 2014 Change over last month Change over last year Equity Markets BSE Sensex 26437 0.6% 42.5% S&P Nifty 7906 1.0% 44.4% S&P 500 1997 0.5% 20.6% Nikkei 225 15613 2.1% 14.5% Debt Markets 10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.54% (19 bps) 18 bps Call Markets As on 21st Aug 2014 7.72% 72 bps 250 bps Fixed Deposit* 9.00% 0 bps 25 bps Commodity Markets RICI Index 3478 (3.3%) (5.5%) Gold (`/10gm) 27625 (1.1%) (13.3%) Crude Oil ($/bbl) As on 18th Aug 2014 99.37 (6.0%) (10.9%) Forex Markets Rupee/Dollar 60.42 (0.32%) 8.26% Yen/Dollar 103.92 (2.4%) (5.4%) Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets 10 yr Gsec Gold Indicates SBI one-year FD Old 10 year g-sec 8.83% maturing in 2023 has been compared with the new 10 year g-sec 8.40% maturing in 2024. 4 75 85 95 105 115 125 135 145 155 165 S & P BSE Sensex CNX Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225 6.8000 7.3000 7.8000 8.3000 8.8000 9.3000 24000 25000 26000 27000 28000 29000 30000 31000 32000 33000 34000 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 `/$

5. US Europe Japan Emerging economies US consumers credit rose by $17.3bn in June, down from a $19.6bn gain in the prior month. US wholesale inventories increased 0.3% in June after a downwardly revised 0.3% gain in May. US industrial production rose 0.4% in July. Economy Update - Global Japanese financial authorities said they planned to expand a tax-free savings scheme by increasing the maximum annual allowance to encourage people to invest more of their savings. Japans Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 52.4 in August, up from a final reading of 50.5 in July. Moodys says Indias GDP will grow by 5% this year and accelerate further next year. Chinas industrial production expanded 9% annually in July, slower than the 9.2% growth recorded in June. Chinas retail sales rose 12.2% annually in July, compared to a 12.4% rise in June. 5 European Central Bank (ECB) keeps its main interest rate on hold at a record low of 0.15% . Euro zones annual inflation was 0.4% in July, down from 0.5% in June. Euro zones GDP rose 0.7% annually in Q2 after expanding 0.9% in Q1.

6. Economy Outlook - Domestic Indias Q1 GDP for FY15 (April-June) grew at 5.7% versus 4.6% in Q4 FY14. This is the highest growth witnessed in the last two-and- a-half years. According to data released by Central Statistics Office(CSO), the highest growth rate witnessed in Q1 was recorded by financial services sector at 10.4% followed by electricity, gas and water supply at 10.2%. Uptick was also seen in the manufacturing sector which grew at 3.5% in Q1 of FY15 as compared to a contraction of 1.2% in the year ago period. Mining sector grew by 2.1% compared to a contraction of 3.9% in the same period last year. The previous high of GDP growth rate was recorded at 6% in the Oct-Dec quarter of FY12. The Index for Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of June 14 grew at 3.4% compared to a negative growth of 1.8% in June 13 indicating a gradual revival in the economic activity for a third consecutive month. The IIP number for May 14 has been revised upwards to 5% from 4.7%. The tremendous growth witnessed in IIP on a Y-o-Y basis is due to a 15.7% growth seen in electricity sector, capital goods sector also saw a whopping 23% growth v/s a 4.5% growth on a M-o-M basis. Mining and manufacturing segments grew by 4.3% and 1.8% respectively. The two sectors which played spoil sport were consumer goods which contracted by 10% and consumer durables contracting by 23.4%. The cumulative growth of IIP for Q1 FY15 stands at 3.9%. IIP 6 -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 5.5 5.3 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.6 5.7 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2) FY13(Q3) FY13(Q4) FY14(Q1) FY14(Q2) FY14(Q3) FY14(Q4) FY15(Q1) GDP Growth

7. Economic Outlook - Domestic As on July 2014 Bank credits grew by 13.2% on a Y-o-Y basis which is 1.6% lower than the growth witnessed in July 13. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 12.8%. The Honorable Finance Minister presented the Union Budget on 10th July and it proved to be a shift away from the subsidy and hand outs driven approach of the previous Government to a more growth focused and development focused budget. Infrastructure got a special mention in the budget speech with a lot of reforms being announced for the sector. The Finance minister also laid down a clear roadmap for fiscal consolidation by pegging FY15 fiscal deficit at 4.1% and 3.6% for FY16. The Finance Minister has increased the personal income tax exemption limit for individuals, long term capital gain tax on debt mutual funds has been increased to 20% and tenure has been increased from 12 months to 36 months. Inflation measured by WPI came in at a 5 month low of 5.19% in July 14 versus 5.43% in the month of June 14. However, food prices still remain a serious concern with fruit prices jumping 31.7% on a Y-o-Y basis and milk prices firming up to 10.5% in the month. Headline CPI came in at 7.96% in July 14 compared to 7.31% in June 14. The spike in the number came in due to higher food prices which increased from 8.05% in June 14 to 9.36% in July 14. Core CPI eased to 7.28% in July compared to 7.47% in June 14.Core CPI is defined as inflation excluding food and energy prices. Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs 7 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% WPI CPI

8. Equity Outlook 8 Growth Rebounds! GDP growth for Q1 FY15 has come in at 5.7% surpassing consensus expectations. Growth had stagnated at 4.5%-5.0% for last ten quarters pulled down by poor performance in the industrial sectors. The strong rebound has been led by manufacturing and export sectors. Investment activity is expected to revive soon, with people being more confident about their future economic prospects, consumers have begun to spend again. We would expect a GDP growth of 6% in FY15 and believe that economy will see a revival of growth and earnings cycle. Cement and four wheeler sales numbers have also been on the uptrend. The macroeconomic data points coming in the last few months have been very encouraging. IIP data, PMI Services & Manufacturing data has been resilient raising hopes of a sustained recovery. We believe a macro-economic revival is on the anvil. Activity in the eight core sectors- coal, crude oil, natural gas, petroleum refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement and electricity are considered as vital cog in economic growth and a higher growth number should reflect in heightened industrial activity and GDP growth numbers for the next quarter. Oil Price Correction A Big Positive Fears of a supply glut is leading to a sharp decline. US production hit the highest levels since 1987 which has pressured WTI prices. Libyan production is being ramped up post stabilization of internal situation. Both the EIA and IEA reports indicate a very comfortable supply picture while trimming their demand forecasts for this year. Economic data from the Eurozone is dismal while Chinese data is also raising concerns about demand growth. Situation stabilizing in Ukraine which will lead to further pressure on prices. Diesel subsidy is only 8paisa/litre, complete deregulation is expected by October 2014. Fuel under-recovery is expected to be at 90,000 crore for this year versus 138,000 crores last year.

9. Equity Outlook 9 Global Macro Outlook Continued recovery in US and a stable Euro area are significant positives for Indian equity markets. Global growth outlook remains supportive of equity investments. US Federal Reserve has reiterated its accommodative stance in the recent Jackson Hole meeting, we expect US interest rates to remain unchanged till the middle of 2015. Any unexpected tightening of US monetary policy will be a negative for global equity markets. European Central Bank has carried out a fresh monetary stimulus by bringing deposit rates into negative territory. European economies continue to show weakness and the current round of stimulus should help stabilize the European economy. The revival in global risk appetite has resulted in fresh FII inflows into emerging market equities with India turning out to be a big beneficiary. India has been one of the top performing equity markets since January this year with fresh equity inflows of $12.5 billion. We expect the remaining months of this fiscal to witness similar amount of inflows. Reform Agenda Environmental clearances, a big road-block for large projects, has been IT enabled thereby cutting lead times and expediting infrastructure creation. GST is likely to be implemented from next financial year. It is expected that a successful implementation of GST will add 1.0- 2.0% to GDP growth rate. Large stalled projects are being revived to give a boost to capital formation activity and restart the investment cycle. Dedicated Freight corridor between Mumbai and Delhi is being fast-tracked. Large spending will be carried out to construct new roads and highways. Budget has made a provision of Rs. 38,000 crores this fiscal for the road sector. Insurance bill was tabled in parliament in the current budget session, FII limit in both Insurance and pension sectors is being raised to 49%.

10. Equity Outlook 10 Market View Corporate earnings growth has started to recover since the last quarter, Sensex earnings growth has improved from 5% in FY13 to about 10% in FY14 on the back of INR depreciation. Q1 FY15 results have been inline with expectations with IT, Healthcare and private banks coming in with good numbers. For FY15, we would expect a Sensex EPS growth of around of 15%. We would expect earnings growth to accelerate once investment activity is revived and average at 20%-25% for the next six years. We arrive at a year end Sensex target of 29,300 based on 15 times FY16 earnings. We maintain a 2020 target of 100,000 on Sensex.

11. Sector Stance Remarks BFSI Overweight Private sector banks and NBFCs are expected to deliver healthy earnings growth. We expect public sector to significantly outperform due to cheap valuations and stabilization in asset quality. Energy Overweight With the ongoing price deregulation of diesel, we believe the total subsidy burden on Oil PSUs will come down during the course of the year. Recent cool off in crude oil prices will also help. E&C Overweight The significant slowdown in order inflow activity will reverse in the next few quarters. We see a new infrastructure cycle taking shape this year. Automobiles Overweight We are positive on SUVs and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power. Two wheeler and four wheeler sales are also showing signs of upturn. Power Utilities Neutral We like the regulated return characteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in earnings and decent return on capital. Sector View 11

12. Sector Stance Remarks Healthcare Neutral We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. Indias strength in generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. FMCG Neutral We like the secular consumption theme. We prefer discretionary consumption beneficiaries such as cigarettes, durables and branded garments, as the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis--vis the increase in disposable incomes. IT/ITES Neutral Demand seems to be coming back in US. North American volume growth has also remained resilient. With significant rupee depreciation in the last year, margins will remain healthy. Cement Neutral Cement industry has seen good volume growth in the last quarter. The sector has also seen price hikes which would boost profitability. Telecom Underweight While regulatory hurdles seem to be reducing, aggressive bidding for spectrum has revived fears of unhealthy competition. Emergent competition from the social media space also present a formidable challenge. Metals Underweight Steel companies will benefit because of rupee depreciation. However, commodity demand stays muted globally due to low capex activity. Sector View 12

13. Debt Outlook The yields on 10 Yr G sec closed at 8.54% which is 12 bps lower than the last months close of 8.66%. The G-sec yields remained range-bound on Government cutting down the first half G-sec borrowing for FY2015, easing global crude oil prices and renewed foreign investors interest in G- sec market. Liquidity in the system was easy on account of foreign inflows and government expenditure. In Term repo auction, RBI auctioned 14 days term repo (Rs 61,512 cr) with cut-off yield of 8.07%. The spread on the 10 year AAA rated corporate bond increased to 63 bps on 22nd August, 2014 from 38 bps (as on 22nd July, 2014). 10-yr G-sec yield Yield curve (%) (%) 13 8.10 8.20 8.30 8.40 8.50 8.60 8.70 8.80 8.90 9.00 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.9 9.7 10.5 11.3 12.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.4 6.8000 7.3000 7.8000 8.3000 8.8000 9.3000

14. Debt Strategy Outlook Category Details Long Tenure Debt Our recommendations regarding long term debt is that investors could look to add to dynamic and medium term income funds over the next few months. Macro economic data-particularly inflation is pointing towards a declining interest rate regime with few caveats. Dynamically managed funds have the flexibility to go extremely short or long depending on the fund managers view on interest rates. An important point to note is that as commodity prices are cooling down, current account deficit may reduce to some extent. But all this is coupled with uncertainty. Hence entry into pure long term debt should be avoided, we suggest matching risk appetite and investment horizon to fund selection. Hence we recommend that if investing for a period of 2 years or above then long term can be looked upon. Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive. With RBI maintaining status quo on key interest rates in the economy we would suggest to invest in and hold on to current investments in short term debt. Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan in the first half of the new fiscal, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9.5%10%) providing interesting investment opportunities. Short Tenure Debt Credit 14 Dynamic Bond Funds

15. Forex The Indian rupee appreciated against GBP, EURO and YEN by 2.75%, 2.13% and 2.26% respectively in August. But the rupee depreciated by 0.32% against USD. The dollar gained after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen came out more balanced than expected on her views about the U.S. economy in a speech to central bankers in the second half of the month. The Indian rupee appreciated against most major currencies on account of continued strong buying of debt and shares by foreign investors, while gains in emerging market currencies also contributed to the improved sentiment. The rupee was also helped after Bloomberg quoted an analyst at Standard & Poor's calling the Indian government's target to lower the fiscal deficit a positive for the country's ratings. Rupee movement vis--vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data The projected capital account balance for Q3 FY 13 is projected at Rs. 171984 crores along with the Q1 and Q2 being at 88013 Cr and 130409 Cr respectively. We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener. 15 Exports during July,2014 were valued at US $ 27.72 bn which was 7.33% higher than the level of US $25.83 bn during July, 2013. Imports during July, 2014 were valued at US $ 39.95 bn representing a growth of 4.25% over the level of imports valued at US $ 38.32 bn in July, 2013 translating into a trade deficit of $12.22 bn. -0.32% 2.75% 2.13% 2.26% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% USD GBP EURO YEN -14000 -12000 -10000 -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Export(%) Import Trade Balance (mn $) 5.5 5.3 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.6 5.7 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 FY13(Q1) FY13(Q2) FY13(Q3) FY13(Q4) FY14(Q1) FY14(Q2) FY14(Q3) FY14(Q4) FY15(Q1)

16. 16 Real Estate Outlook Asset Classes Tier I Tier II Residential There has been some positive news for affordable housing segment in the recent budget. Issuance of bonds by financial institutions for lending to affordable housing segment shall be exempt from CRR and SLR requirements. (In the Tier I cities, loans to affordable housing segment mean loans of up to Rs. 50 lacs for homes worth up to Rs. 65 lacs. This could translate into some reduction in the interest cost for home buyers and could give some boost to sales of mid-income projects in the Tier I cities. With a single party majority at the Centre and the consequent stable political outlook, enquires and foot-falls at residential projects have started increasing. With a lag of a few months, this is expected to translate into actual sales. The sops on lending to affordable housing segment announced in the recent budget may affect the sales in Tier II cities as well with a lag of a few months. In Tier II cities, loans to affordable housing mean loans of up to Rs. 40 lacs for homes worth up to Rs. 50 lacs. Demand in Tier II cities is largely driven by the trend towards nuclear families, increasing disposable income, rising aspiration to own quality products and the growth in infrastructure facilities in these cities. Price appreciation is more concentrated to specific micro-markets in these cities. Cities like Chandigarh, Jaipur, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Nagpur, Patna and Cochin are expected to perform well. Commercial/IT Currently, the over-supply in commercial asset class still continues, thereby dampening the capital values. While rentals have been seen increasing at a slow pace over the last couple of months, they still remain lower than the peal values achieved in the past. Enquiries have started from companies across industries such as IT, consultancy and e-commerce for leasing and buying office space in expectations of an economic boom under a stable central government. The change in the uptake of commercial asset class is slower than residential and it could take a couple of quarters before commercial asset class absorption starts increasing. Final regulations on REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) have come out. In the long term, REITs shall offer an exit option to developers and hence will be a boon for the commercial asset class.. Lease rentals as well as capital values continue to be stable at their current levels in the commercial asset class. Low unit sizes have played an important role in maintaining the absorption levels in these markets.

17. Asset Classes Tier I Tier II Retail Capital values as well as lease rentals continue to be stagnant. Developers continue to defer the construction costs as absorption continues to be low unsold inventory levels high. Tier II cities see a preference of hi-street retail as compared to mall space in Tier I cities. While not much data on these rentals gets reported, these are expected to have been stagnant. Land Agricultural / non-agricultural lands with connectivity to Tier I cities and in proximity to upcoming industrial and other infrastructure developments present good investment opportunities. Caution should however be exercised due to the complexities typically involved in land investments. Land in Tier II and III cities along upcoming / established growth corridors have seen good percentage appreciation due to low investment base in such areas. Real Estate Outlook 17 Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets

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