1. ADVICE for the WISENewsletter JULY 2012

2. ContentsIndexPage No.Economic Update 4Equity Outlook8Debt Outlook 12Forex 14Commodities 15Real Estate162 3. From the Desk of the CIODear Investor,While our expectations of a better equity market performance last The overall fall in crude oil prices and other commodities (despite themonth were clearly borne out, the pace of the recovery seems a little recovery through last week of June) has led many market participants totoo steep. We do share the optimism amongst investors regarding the believe that RBI might cut repo rates in its July announcement ofimproved prospects of Euro area sovereign debt crisis resolution as wellmonetary policy. We do believe that the inflation trajectory being whatas greater clarity on the Indian economic reforms agenda. However weit is and the cooling commodities prices further exerting a downwardbelieve that the recovery can easily be attributed to a widely shared pressure on it, the growth agenda might dominate RBIs policy makingfeeling of relief that Euro-zone situation is not deteriorating further and for now. The long term debt yield has already started to cool off in thedomestic policy paralysis is at its nadir and cant get much worse. To useexpectation of that. We recommend a staged entry into long term debtthe oft-quoted jargon thus, sentiment has played a much larger role inwith the expectation of eventual easing of monetary policy.this recovery, as expected. The sharp recovery of crude oil and someInterestingly enough, several tax-free bonds have been trading at aother commodities towards the end of the month, especially in the fairly good premium to their issue price last year. Considering the longglobal markets and the reversal of rupee from its falling trend are alsolist of tax-free issues expected this year, investors can choose topart of the same sentiment-driven reaction to the recent spate of newsselectively sell their current holdings in these bonds and re-enter themof having postponed the threat of disaster to another day.at the time of issuance later this year. It should be noted however thatthis strategy would typically attract short term capital gains.Such rallies tend to be overly sensitive to occurrence of eveninconsequential negative news. Owing to that our equity The one year returns of the rupee denominated NASDAQ ETF have beenrecommendation remains focused on bargain hunting in the mid-capover 40% - a remarkable performance in a rather forgettable year forspace. While large cap stocks are recovering in line with the broad Indian equities. Part of the returns were driven by better than expectedmarkets, several mid-cap stocks (and some large cap stocks) continue to performance of NASDAQ in USD terms, but the rest of the returns wereremain very attractively priced. We believe that the returns on bottom- explained by fall of Rupee against USD. This example demonstrates thatup stock selection have rarely been as good. If the rally continues investors can diversify vis--vis the Indian equity risk as well as currencyunabated through the month, it would be wise to start booking somerisk by investing into some global fund/ETF/stocks. As and when Rupeeprofits on way up. As some bad news inevitably hits the fragile recoveryhits a suitably stable level (50-53), one can explore investments intoin near future, investors can increase equity allocations again.global assets.Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.19 4. Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets110SensexNifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225 As on 29th Change overChange over105100 June 2012 last monthlast year 95 90BSE Sensex174297.5% (7.5%) 85 80 75 Equity S&P Nifty 5279 5.2% (6.5%) MarketsS&P 500 1362 4.0%3.1% 9.3010 yr Gsec8.80Nikkei 2259007 5.4% (8.2%)8.307.807.3010-yr G-Sec Yield 8.18%(34 bps)(14 bps) 6.80 Debt Markets Call Markets8.34% 21 bps75 bps31000Fixed Deposit*9.00%0 bps75 bps29000Gold270002500023000RICI Index3439 2.5% (12.7%) 2100019000 CommodityGold (`/10gm) 295941.4%34.9%MarketsCrude Oil ($/bbl)103.85(12.5%)(11.4%) 605856`/$5452504846 ForexRupee/Dollar56.310.2% (20.6%) 444240 MarketsYen/Dollar79.53 (0.4%) 1.8% Indicates SBI one-year FD 4New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the yield is compared to the earlier benchmark( 2021 Maturity) 5. Economy Update - Global The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, had declined in May 2012 to 64.4 which further fellin June to 62.0 (1985=100). US The US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the first quarter because of less robust pace ofconsumer spending and export growth. The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 46.4 in June, up fromto a near three-year low of 46.0 in May. But the rise failed to avoid the region seeing the strongestquarterly downturn for three years in the second quarter. Europe Inflation has been gradually sinking in the Eurozone because of a slack economy and lower oil prices, itremained unchanged at 2.4% for the month of June 12. Japans Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 49.9 in June 12, marginally down from 50.7 in May12.Jobs growth eased to a marginal rate as a result, with companies expressing hesitancy with regards tohiring given the economic outlook.Japan Consumer price inflation eased in May to 0.2% from 0.5% in the previous month this was related toslowing energy price inflation and falling prices for household durables due to technologicaldevelopment. Indias seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers Index, posted 55.0 in June, little-changed from thereading of 54.8 in May. Emerging Chinas HSBC PMI inched lower to 48.2 in June from 48.4 in May signalling an eight successive month-on-economies month worsening of Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions. A lack of demand was behindthe latest deterioration in operating conditions, with total and foreign new orders falling at acceleratedrates in June. 5 6. Economy Outlook - Domestic 10.0%8.0% IIP6.0% Indias economic growth fell below the psychologically4.0%2.0%significant 6% level for the first time in last 3 years, signalling0.0%that countrys slowdown is deepening and affecting all sectors -2.0%of the economy. Sharp falls in the manufacturing & Agriculture -4.0%sectors have led to Indias GDP growing only at 5.3% as -6.0% Apr May Jun Jul 11 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr compared to 7.8% growth a year earlier. 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 The economy has slowed in the face of weaker external Industrial production growth rate slowed down sharply to 0.1% indemand, rising global uncertainty, elevated interest rates, highApril 2012 due to contraction in capital goods and dip in inflation, a stagnant government and declining businessmanufacturing output, reflecting the sluggish state of the economy, confidence. Withthe economy battling multipleviz-a-viz a 5.3% growth in April 2011. IIP in March12 hadmacroeconomic problems, the Reserve Bank of India is underunexpectedly shrunk 3.5%. pressure to both curtail inflation and reduce key interest ratesto boost the investment climate in the economy. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes over 75% of the index,grew barely 0.1%, as against 5.7% in April 2011. The capital goodsoutput declined by 16.3% as against a growth of 6.6% in the same9.0 GDP growth 8.48.3month last year. Mining output contracted by 3.1% in April, as8.5 8.1 7.87.78.0against growth of 1.6% in the same month a year ago.7.5 6.97.0 IIP growth slowed in April-March (2011-12) period too, deepening6.5 6.1fears of an economic slowdown that could force the central bank to6.05.55.1ease monetary policy further despite inflation risks. Industrial5.0output growth for 2011-12 stood at 2.8% compared to 8.2% in the 4.5previous year.4.0FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4)6 7. Economic Outlook - Domestic Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs25.0%Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits The annual rate of inflation (WPI) rose to 7.55% in May from23.0%7.23% in April. WPI inflation was 9.56% in May11. The21.0% increase was mainly due to a rise in prices of manufactured19.0%17.0% products, fuel and power and non-food primary goods. It was15.0%also impacted by a depreciating rupee, which has made key13.0%imports, such as crude oil & capital goods more expensive,11.0%despite a fall in global crude prices. WPI for the month of 9.0% March was revised significantly upwards from 6.9% to 7.7% . 7.0% 5.0% Manufactured products rose by only 0.5% in May, translating into 5.02% rate of inflation, while food inflation rose 10. 74%, Core inflation rose marginally to 4.86% from 4.77%. Indias new consumer inflation rate, based on the all-India As on 1st June 2012, Bank credits grew by 15.4% on a Y-o-Y basisGeneral Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined) rose to which is 393 Bps lower than the growth witnessed in May 201110.36% in May 2012 the fifth month of such a measure in (i.e. 19.3%). Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 11.4%,the country of retail prices - against a revised number of viz-a viz a growth of 18.1% in May 2011.10.26% in the April 2012 due to a sharp increase in prices of vegetables, edible oil and milk products. Normally, banks try to make their balance sheet stronger before 10.0% March 31, and meet their targets, and so there was a spurt in9.5% Wholesale Price Index short-term deposits and advances.9.0%8.5% On 17th April 2012, Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates for 8.0% the first time in three years by reducing the repo rate by 50 bps7.5% to 8%, to give boost to flagging economic growth but warned7.0% that there is limited scope for further rate cuts. 6.5%6.0% * End of period figures 7 8. Equity OutlookAfter a subdued May, June brought with it a ray of hope for the investors. Indian equity markets generated a return of over 7% (m-o-m), supported by FII inflow. A combination of key economic events like no fall out during Greece elections, a status quo RBI policy, ourPM assuming the FMs role, a positive outcome of the EU summit, Feds continuation of Operation Twist and RBIs action to ease debtcapital flows were responsible for the market movement.With consensus expectation of a rate cut, a status quo monetary policy review by the RBI proved to be a disappointment for themarket. While RBIs continued focus on inflation is driving the inaction on the policy rates, considering the slowdown in the economicgrowth, interest rate cuts are inevitable. We do expect RBI to cut repo rates in its quarterly review in July. Although no direct rate cuthas been implemented, the Central bank has taken a few measures to liberalize debt capital flow in order to improve BoP and stemthe falling INR. In addition to this, the deferment of GAAR and positive policy action has been a clear winner for our markets.In May, one of the biggest concerns was the Greece elections and a possible contagion in Europe. Now, with the Greece electionsbehind us and a disorderly exit of Greece ruled out; the situation is contained though not yet fully resolved. The decision of directrecapitalization of banks rather than lending to Governments at the EU summit has been perceived positively by the markets, bringingdown the soaring sovereign yields of Italy and Spain. In US, Fed has decided to continue with Operation Twist and has maintained itsinterest rates close to zero. There was an expectation amongst global market participants that Fed would actually buy the US Debtinstead of just doing a twist of selling short term bonds and buying long term bonds, but with the continuation of Twist, QEIII appearsto be postponed. 8 9. Equity Outlook Repo RateCRR9.00%8.5%8.50% 8.0% Expected8.00%7.50% 6.25%7.00%6.50%6.00%6.00%5.50% 4.75%5.00%Expected4.50%4.00%Source: RBIGoing forward, the soft inflation and commodity prices, coupled with some moderation in interest rates could provide the much-needed fillip to corporate earnings. In the near term, we expect the INR, Q1FY13 results and monsoon progress to provide direction tothe market. Indian equities continue to remain a long term bull story based on the growth prospect of the country. Markets aretrading at cheap valuations currently and we believe cautiousness in the near term should be used to accumulate quality stocks with aslightly longer-term view. 10. Sector View SectorStanceRemarks In June, OMCs cut petrol prices twice on the back off fall in international fuel prices. This positive move has been supported by the Fin Min assuring that it has no plans of a hike in excise duty of diesel cars. Additionally, in the short term this sector will benefit from the fall in raw material prices and easing in monetary policy.Automobiles Overweight Demographically and economically, Indias automotive industry is well-positioned for growth, servicing both domestic demand and, increasingly, export opportunities. We continue to have a bullish stance on two on two- wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power. Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has good BFSI Overweight asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to increase in credit growth. The global economic challenges continue to persist. Nevertheless, US and European customers of Indian IT IT/ITES Neutral companies are in good health; we believe this uncertain global environment would result in a slowdown in order inflows in the near term. Though, rupee depreciation will provide cushion to IT companies earnings. Cement stocks have corrected over the last few months due to softening of prices, weak demand and CCI overhang. We believe that cement prices and demand are likely to recover in H2 after resolving the regulatory CementNeutral issues of sand and labour shortages. Additionally, we expect cement demand will grow over the next three years. With pricing power returning, we are becoming constructive on this space. We like the regulated return characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in earnings andPower UtilitiesNeutral decent return on capital. We prefer discretionary consumption beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the growthFMCG Neutral in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis--vis the increase in disposable incomes.10 11. Sector ViewSector StanceRemarks We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. Indias strength in generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With theHealthcare Neutral developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and CRAMS space The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. However, The significant slowdown in order E&C Neutral inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this space. The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability Telecom Neutral levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected. We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying EnergyUnderweight economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses. Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about MetalsUnderweight growth in developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices might stay depressed as growth slows down significantly in China and other emerging markets11 12. Debt Outlook9.0 9.30Yield curve 10-yr G-sec yield8.8 8.808.68.30(%)(%)8.48.2 7.808.07.307.86.807.6 0.8 0.0 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.9 5.7 6.5 7.3 8.1 8.9 9.710.511.312.112.913.714.515.316.116.917.718.519.4 The 10 year benchmark GSec yield dipped by 34 bps in June to close at 8.18%. In the month of June 2012, the new 10 year benchmark G-sec maturing in 2022 was listed with a coupon of 8.15%. Thenew 10 Yr benchmark, G Sec 8.15% GS 2022 bond yields closed up by 10 basis points at 8.18% (99.81) on Friday Vs. itsclose of 8.08% in the previous week. RBI hiked the FII investment limit for government securities by $5 bn to $20 bn. The spread a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond spread has decreased to 96 bps on 29th June 2012 from a 102 bps on 31stmay 2012. The AAA Rated bonds were yielding 9.35% on 29th June 2012.12 13. Debt StrategyCategory Outlook Details The much awaited and expected trend reversal of the interest rates starting with a 50 Bps rate cut in April, we would recommendShort Tenure investment in short term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too. Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the Debt market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9.5% 10%) providing interesting investment opportunities. Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. CreditTight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive. With the much awaited trend reversal in the interest rates coming as a 50 Bps rate cut in April and signals passive cuts in near future, we would recommend to hold on to the current investment for a horizon of 18-24Long Tenuremonths in Longer term papers and not to increase the exposure in the Debtsame. These, while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term. 13 14. Forex Rupee movement vis--vis other currencies (M-o-M)100.0 Trade balance and export-import data 0 ExportImportTrade Balance (mn $)1.50%80.0 -5000 60.00.94% -100001.00%40.0-15000 20.0 --200000.50% 0.20% (20.0)-250000.00% USDGBPEUROYEN Exports during May, 2012 were valued at US $ 25.68 bn which-0.50%was 4.16% lower in Dollar terms than the level of US $ 26.80-1.00%bn during May, 2011. Imports during May, 2012 were valued -0.78%at US $ 41.95 bn representing a negative growth of 7.36% in-1.50%-1.35%Dollar terms over the level of imports valued at US $ 45.28 bnin May, 2011 translating into a trade deficit of $16.27 bn.140000Capital Account Balance INR has depreciated against GBP and Euro whereas it appreciated against US Dollar and Japanese Yen. It appreciated90000 by 0.2%, in June ( Depreciated by 6.9% in May 2012) against the US Dollar. But, since the beginning of the calendar year it has 40000 depreciated by 5.4% During the month (26th June), USD/INR closed at a life time low-10000 FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2) for Indian Rupee at 57.22. But in next four days it appriciated The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised and the month end closing value was 56.31. from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure wasrevised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced a series of steps toCrores. rein in the currencys loss, including curbing banks abilities to We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more speculate in the currency market. The central bank sold at least investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs $20 billion to stabilize the currency. would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertaintyin the global markets could prove to be a dampener. 14 15. Commodities31000Gold prices continue to remain stable following FedsGold29000extension of operation twist and a positive outcome of EU27000summit. Any short term measures from either US or EUPreciouscentral banks is positive for gold as it improves the money 25000circulation. The continuing ultra low fed fund rates and Metals possibility of interest rate reduction from the ECB; and23000Fed willingness to other measures down the road to boost21000the economy shall only benefit gold. Expect gold prices toremain firm with a positive bias. 19000 135.0CrudeThe sharp rise in oil prices following recent correction is a125.0cause for concern. The brent crude oil is currently trading115.0above the $100 mark and may sustain at these levels forsome more time following Chinas record-high import105.0Oil & Gas demand amid Saudi Arabia s reduction in export 95.0volumes. Added to this is the escalating geopoliticaltension in Iran following the official start of the EU85.0embargo on July 1 should support oil prices. Expect oil 75.0prices to remain firm with a positive bias. 16. Real Estate Outlook - I Asset ClassesTier I Tier II With new DCR regulations Mumbai market saw some confidence coming back for investors. Rates remained at peak levels and shows no sign of stress. The sales in many premium pockets have Prices surged since last quarter, factors being seen over 60% plunge. Thane and Panvel sees lot of end user largely growth of infrastructure and young aspiring transactions. All other prime markets like Pune, Banaglore, first time home. Cities like Jaipur, Bhopal,ResidentialChennai, Hyderabad, NCR are seeing rate stagnancy well over 2 Trivandrum, Madurai, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh quarters now. With new supply being announced every month, highly attractive for apartments in 600-1100 sqft the stress on sales continues. Given the overall average of these range markets, any project having Rs. 4000 per sqft entry point with a good developer sees lot of interest (keeping the unit size well under 1500 sqft) Lease transactions are under pressure and new rate/sqft trends Very less benchmarks available but the rents are getting established in all major IT driven pockets/cities. MumbaiCommercial/ITgrowing 8-10% every year for commercial still manages to stay afloat due to heavy investment in small properties in Tier-II cities office spaces from investors 16 17. Real Estate Outlook - IIAsset ClassesTier ITier II Still to re-cover from the 2008 shock, many malls have been experiment grounds for retailers. The FDI is wellHi-street rules the roost, the mall culture is repeated awaited for re-starting the retail phenomenon in majorbeaten in the Tier-2 markets and predominantly seeing aRetail cities. 60% of the mall in India are not even 60% occupiedre-structure of plans to suit schools, hospitals, commercial and if occupied, unable to get rent on time. Investment inoffices, call centers, super-market etc prime mall spaces can get good returns due to opening up of FDI. Land has given better appreciation in these markets than 30-40 kms radius near in prime markets are becoming Tier 1, since there is a natural demand to own landLand expensive month on month. Interest from investors has property. Also, scarcity in old locations and new upcoming drawn lot of attention in well connected areas. areas due to infrastructure is making many invaluable land valuablePlease Note:Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and KolkattaTier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I marketsThe IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter 17 18. Why Karvy Private Wealth? Open Architecture Widest array of products We are an open-architecture firm at two levels asset class level and product level : Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class Intensive Research We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPWs or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio Honest, unbiased adviseGroup-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks orbroking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company likeall banks do. The KPW 3-S Service promise: When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of The KPW 3- S Service Promise : Smooth and Hassle Free Attention, Service & Convenience Sharp and proactive Portfolio monitoring and tracking Smart Incisive insights on markets and Investment productsPedigreed Senior Management TeamA talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations. 18 19. DisclaimerThe information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Groupcompanies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for theaccuracy or the completeness thereof. 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