A Proactive Approach to Blowout Prevention Equipment Risk Assessment

Determining “Retrieve BOP to Surface” or “Continue Operations” in

Deepwater Operations

BSEE Technical Forum on Next-Generation Blowout Preventer (BOP) and Control Systems

Technology, Management and Regulations May 22nd 2012

Agenda

• The challenge

• The solution

• BOP Analysis

• BOP Model

• Defense-in-Depth

• Continual Benefits

• Develop the capability to “based on input” assess risk and reliability instantaneously and communicate to all interested parties effectively • Generate a method of communication • Account for the full capabilities of any BOP

The Challenge

The Question When does a BOP failure or failures affect the reliability or

functionality to levels such that continued operations cannot be maintained in the operational circumstance it is intended to

perform?

The Solution BOP Risk Modelling • Built in Risk Spectrum software specifically designed for real time

assessments • Customized and BOP specific • Risk Spectrum modules utilized:

– Block Diagrams(Connections and interconnections) – FTA (Fault Tree Analyses) Logic Application – PSA (Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis) – FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analyses) validation and verification – Risk Watcher (Dashboard Risk Monitoring)

Result: – Instant display of revised risk levels for all stakeholders and

regulators in a reliable and standardized way of communicating effectively

The BOP Risk model BOP main functions

The BOP Risk model Reliability block diagrams

Fault Tree Modeling of BOP Failures (1)

BOP not closed (overbalanced)

BOP_OB

Non-shearable equipment in BOP

@BOP_OB-1

Overbalanced operation with non-shearable equipment in BOP

EQU_OB

Fails to pull out or drop non-shearable equipment

PUOUT

Shear ram failure

@BOP_OB-2

Failure of casing shear ram

CASRAM

Failure of blind shear ram

BLIRAM

Signal transmission failure

TRANS

Hydraulic failure

HYD

The BOP Risk model BOP main functions

Upper Annular 100% Complete

Riser Connector 100% Complete

Lower Annular 100% Complete

Upper Blind Shear Rams 100% Complete

Lower Blind Shear Rams 100% Complete

Super Shear Rams 100% Complete

Upper Pipe Rams 100% Complete

Middle Pipe Rams 100% Complete

Lower Pipe Rams 100% Complete

Wellhead Connector 100% Complete

Fail to Open

Fail to close

Fail to Seal the Hole

Fail to Open

Fail to close

Fail to Seal the Hole

Fail to Unlock

Fail to Lock

Fail to Open

Fail to Shear and seal

Fail to Unlock

Fail to Lock

Fail to Open

Fail to Shear and seal

Fail to Open

Fail to Shear

Fail to Open

Fail to Close

Fail to Open

Fail to Close

Fail to Open

Fail to Close

Top Events

BOP Analysis In Review

• Analyze complete BOPs on component and systems levels in Fault Tree logic

• Examine how a fault affects the BOP and

it’s redundancy or reliability levels • This analysis will generate a “BOP model” • The “BOP model” can now be

interrogated by anyone in an industry recognized way

BOP Model

• Representation of the “BOP Model” • Illustrates operational status of the

BOP • Fault manually entered upon

diagnosis • Instant displays of new risk levels

Industry consensus will define each level of risk

Unacceptable Risk

“Retrieve BOP to Surface”

High Risk “Additional Risk Assessment of Variables”

Moderate Risk System Maintenance Required

Low Risk Functional Capabilities Available

Defense In Depth User interface in RiskWatcher

Defense In Depth User interface in RiskWatcher

Defense In Depth User interface in RiskWatcher

Defense In Depth User interface in RiskWatcher

Defense In Depth User interface in RiskWatcher

Defense In Depth User interface in RiskWatcher

Continual Benefits • Instant verification of new risk levels to all stakeholders and regulators • BOP analyzed by “independent” risk and BOP subject matters experts

• When completed ad-hoc, equipment owners, operators and additional

stakeholders do not rely solely on risk analysis by BOP subject matter expert risk assessments and decision making during the stress of a potential downtime event.

• Decrease close involvement of stakeholders • Assurance BOP model was created by subject matter experts and validated

upfront through risk assessment and can now be communicated effectively to all including regulator’s and can be thoroughly assessed and scrutinized in an informed unbiased way.

QUESTIONS ????

For more information, please contact: Garry Davis Manager Global Center Of Excellence T +1 281 649 2761 M +1 823 578 5395 E garry.davis@moduspec.com