Calculation Tools for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions ...
A New Framework for Estimating Greenhouse-Gas Reductions
26
From Carbon to Light Methodologies for Carbon Finance Monitoring and Evalua9on Evan Mills, Ph.D. Lumina Project Lawrence Berkeley Na9onal Lab Ligh9ng Africa 2010 Business Conference Nairobi, Africa May 1820, 2010
-
Upload
christina-dian-parmionova -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
0
description
There is massive need for improved lighting services in the developing world. Current efforts to provide those services involve the use of highly inefficient liquid and solid fuel combustion, which results in substantial greenhouse-gas emissions as well as other adverse impacts such as compromised indoor air quality. Grid-independent lighting systems based on light-emitting-diode light sources (LEDs) are the most promising alternative for simultaneously improving lighting services and reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.
Transcript of A New Framework for Estimating Greenhouse-Gas Reductions
From Carbon to Light Methodologies for Carbon Finance Monitoring and Evalua9on
Evan Mills, Ph.D. Lumina Project
Lawrence Berkeley Na9onal Lab
Ligh9ng Africa 2010 Business Conference
Nairobi, Africa May 18-‐20, 2010
Acknowledgements United Na9ons, Framework Conven9on on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Small Scale Working Group; Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Execu9ve Board
Blum Center for Developing Economies
Ligh9ng Africa
Lumina Project Team Arne Jacobson, Peter Alstone, Jennifer Tracy, Patricia Lai,
Kristen Radecsky, and Dus9n Poppendieck at Humboldt State University. Jessica Granderson, Jim Galvin, and Francis
Rubinstein at Lawrence Berkeley Na9onal Laboratory. Maina Mumbi and Francis Ngugi in Kenya.
Making Light off the Grid
Fuel Use Rates & Monthly Consump9on
Sources: Karnataka (le[) (CDM 2009) Nepal (right) (Stewart Craine, Barefoot Power)
Source: Ligh9ng Africa, Market Research (2009) Photo: Evan Mills
Fuelwood for Ligh9ng
Source: Ligh9ng Africa, Market Research (2009)
8
Enabling Policy for Valuing Carbon
• Kyoto Protocol: Reduce GHG emissions by 5.2% below 1990 levels between 2008 & 2012
• This created a mul9-‐$-‐billion market
• Achievable through “Flexible Mechanisms” – Tradable or salable credits from projects in developing countries (CDM) -‐ “Cer9fied Emissions Reduc9ons, CERs”
– Credits from projects in economies in transi9on (JI)
– Trading of allowances (e.g. to comply with a Cap)
– Involves complicated process of verifica9on and quality control
Buyer’s side
Baseline em
issions
Baseline Scenario
Seller’s side (Host Country)
Emission Reductions (ERs)
Project em
issions
Project Scenario
Emissions target
Purchase of allowances
Host country benefits from technology and
financial flows
ER
Purchase of ERs
Domestic action
Purchase of ERs is supplemental to domestic action
How Carbon Trading Operates • Kyoto Protocol: Reduce GHG emissions by 5.2%
below 1990 levels between 2008 & 2012 --> CDM
Baseline Emissions =>
Source: A. Lim. 2009. “Carbon Trading and the Kyoto Protocol.” World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region.
Growth of the Carbon Market
Down-‐to-‐Earth Example: fishermen on Lake Victoria emit carbon worth $10M/year
Types of CDM Projects: March 2010
Household CER’s
issued = 0
Cri9cal issues for LED Projects • Baseline (and trends) • “Suppressed demand”
• Performance & life of replacement product
• “Leakage” • “Addi9onality:” Net savings, investment barriers, technological barriers, viable alterna9ve, no policy pre-‐emp9on
Photo: Evan Mills
Addi9onality
Source: A. Lim. 2009. “Carbon Trading and the Kyoto Protocol.” World Bank, Europe and Central Asia Region.
Useful Ligh9ng Africa Market Research
Source: Ligh9ng Africa, Market Research (2009) E= Ethiopia; G=Ghana; K = Kenya; T=Tanzania; Z = Zambia
Exis9ng CDM System is Broken • Not designed for small-‐scale technologies
• Narrow focus on factors such as lamp fuel use rates and hours of use
• High costs of verifica9on imposed on project developers
• Lack of standardiza9on of assump9ons/methods Photos: Evan Mills & Peter Alstone
Toward an Improved Methodology • Deemed baseline (no costly market research; project developer has op9on to refine) – Displaced fuel: kerosene – Consump9on: 0.025 liters/hour – U9liza9on: 3.5 hours/day – Dynamic baseline: 5%/year kerosene growth
Photo: Evan Mills
LED Default Values + Modifiers • Deemed LED amributes (developer can refine)
– LED-‐Kerosene lamp replacement: 1:1
– Leakage: 1 hour of LED replaces 0.5 hours of kerosene – LED technology: 5mm
– Service life: 2 years – Power conversion losses for grid charging: 25%
Photo: Peter Alstone
Default Carbon Credit Value
• Result: ~0.15 tonnes CO2/lamp ~ $3 per lamp
Photo: Evan Mills
Key Modifiers for LED Projects
• LED type & powering • Bamery replaceability • Mul9func9on vs. dedicated ligh9ng
• Charity or purchased • Warranty
• PV or grid charged • Quality ra9ng / Truth-‐in-‐adver9sing
Source: Mills, E. 2010. "From Carbon to Light." Lumina Project Technical Report #5.
Enormous Range of LED Quality
Photo: Evan Mills
Source: Mills, E. 2007. "Assessing the Performance of 5mm White LED Light Sources for Developing-‐Country Applica9ons." Lumina Project Research Note #1.
Recommenda9ons to UNFCCC on LED Project Emissions Accoun9ng
Super-‐bright LEDs, long warranty, quality-‐rated, PV charged, etc.
Bamery-‐powered baseline, poor LEDs, no warranty, grid-‐charged; can’t replace bamery
15
Development of micro data logger
Source: Lumina Project (LBNL/HSU)
Measured LED Lantern Usage over a Three-‐day Period: Africa
India: street vendor (Varanassi)
