A Multidisciplinary Approach to Natural Resource Resource Assessment: NetRA

R. Bernknopf (UNM), B. Bridge (UNM), C. Broadbent (IWU), D. Brookshire (UNM)

Open-pit coal mining process (World Coal Association 2012)

Research background and motivation

Where should the next ton of coal be mined? Societal preferences and impacts of mining across large geographic regions need to be considered in policy decisions.

Why do we need to look at all natural resources? Trade-offs between development and preservation are central to regional decisions. Society benefits in many ways from development of natural resources and from conservation and preservation of ecosystems.

Why regional scale?

Tradeoffs occur between and within geographic regions.

What natural resources are to be exploited?

Fuel, nonfuel minerals and ecosystem services are the targets of opportunity.

Why policy relevance? Policymakers and regulators need to be informed about balancing the nation’s demand for and supply of natural resources and ecosystem services. Regional analysis is a way to make decisions about the order and intensity of natural resource exploitation.

Problem description: Picking from a cube of natural resources and ecosystem services without replacement

t0 t1 t2

= nonfuel mineral

= fuel mineral

= ecosystem service

= potable water

Net Resource Assessment (NetRA)

NetRA is a quantitative approach that merges scientific data about resource extraction and ecosystem services with market and nonmarket values over space and time. It is a model of net societal benefit maximization that incorporates the best practices available in the fields of geology, hydrology, ecology, biology, economics, etc.

NetRA is a multidimensional decision tool designed to estimate the maximum net benefits of resource extraction while minimizing the impacts to ecosystem services. Application of the framework can be used at landscape scale between large regions as well as at regional scale within a region or RAU over time.

Conceptual framework for the NetRA

1. Planner's Problem

6. Optimization Method

7. Mineral Benefits 8. Environmental Degradation

9. Dynamic Land Use Plan

2. Prices and Market

Mechanisms

3. Policies and

Regulations

4. Local and

Regional Land

Attributes

5. Natural Science

Process Models

NetRA is a spatiotemporal economic model

Planner’s problem is to maximize the benefits of all natural resources value while minimizing the costs of doing so for a specific time period. Object is to construct a spatiotemporal economics model that describes the problem

A 21st century approach will also account for environmental degradation,

The dynamic problem is the change in the resource stock from period to period, which is a function of how much is developed, how much was there initially, and the geology

A lower bound of mineral extracted and an upper bound of environmental degradation in any time period ,

Model requires an estimate with precision of the initial stock of the resource

given

1

, , , ,

0

max [ ( , )] [ ]t

Trt t

t a g t t t a s ta

t

NB e p q C a S e D

, ,a s tD

St+1

- St= f (a

t,St;B)

, , 2a g tq c, , 1a s tD c

0S

NetRA applies multiple science disciplines

Analysis and results are based on the integration of a variety of science data and process models at regional scale

• Geological resource assessment

• Ecological resource assessment

• Ecosystem services and environmental valuation and benefit

transfers • Engineering economics

• Optimal control and dynamic programming

• GIS and other computer science

Schematic for implementing the NetRA

1. Choose resource

assessment unit in a region

2. Ecological (production)

and geological

(occurrence) resource

assessment models

3. Inventory of natural

resources/ LULC portfolio

4. Spatiotemporal economic model

5. Change in quantities of

natural resources estimate prices for market and

nonmarket goods for a scenario LULC portfolio

Coal producers take the price of coal as given in any time period t. Production will be acres at developed in a given time period. Model can be run with and without economic, natural, and regulatory constraints

Hypothetical natural resources and ecosystem services in the Powder River Basin and Kaiparowits Plateau

Region

Production Powder River Basin Kaiparowits Plateau

Market output

Coal (BT) 50BT 25BT

Oil (MB) 75MB 100MB

Natural Gas (MCF) 20MCF 25MCF

Ecosystem service

Carbon sequestration (mg/ha) 10T 10T

Sage Grouse (000) 2,000 3,500

Water annual flow (m3/s) 1,500 500

Migratory birds (000) 10,000 2,500

A three dimensional depiction of an acre of coal land in the Wyoming Powder River Basin

The spatial analysis is a land grid where each potential acre to be developed aijkt, where i and j are geographic coordinates and k is depth. Environmental quality (and thus the expected degradation) will vary in the land grid.

Generalized geologic map of the Powder River Basin, Montana and Wyoming

and the location of the Gillette coalfield, Wyoming (Ellis et al., 2002)

Powder River Basin pilot study

24 coal beds in the Northern Wyoming Powder River Basin contain 285 BST of original coal resources 263 BST (92.3%) are on Federal lands About 153 MST (0.1% of the original resource) has been mined Approximately 21 BST (7.4%) is affected by restrictions (too thin, land use, and technical) 263 BST of the total orignial coal resource is available for development (10:1 stripping ratio) 50 BST of recoverable coal Scott et al., 2011, USGS Open-file Report 2010-1294

http://www.voiceforthewild.org/general/mapgallery/prb/list.html

Land use example: Map of BLM unsuitability criteria in Powder River Basin, WY (source: Watson et al., 1991)

The BLM determines restrictions to mining and the distances to be buffered around specific features.

Coal leasing unsuitability criteria from Code of Federal Regulations (43 CFR 3461.5).

Next steps

• Complete derivation of regional spatiotemporal economics model to evaluate resource development and the impacts on ecosystem services

• Regionalization of resource estimates

• Scope and conduct Powder River Basin pilot study

• Develop decision support tool for regional comparison

• Conduct comparison of development potential and impacts on ecosystem services between two regions (e g., Powder River Basin and Kaiparowits)

Thank you

rbern@unm.edu bbridge@unm.edu cbroadbe@iwu.edu brookshi@unm.edu