20160615 Aegean presentation › - › media › aboutaegean › ir › ir... · 2016-06-22 ·...
Transcript of 20160615 Aegean presentation › - › media › aboutaegean › ir › ir... · 2016-06-22 ·...
Corporate Presentation
June 2016
1999
• Launched operations• Launched operations
1999‐2001
• 2 local acquisitions• 2 local acquisitions
2002
• First international routes launched
• First international routes launched
2006‐2007
• 27 Airbus order• 27 Airbus order
2008
• Largest Greek airline• Largest Greek airline
2010
• Star alliance member• Star alliance member
2011
• Becoming single type jet operator
• Becoming single type jet operator
2013
• Acquisition of Olympic Air• Acquisition of Olympic Air
2014
• 7 Airbus order• 7 Airbus order
Quality & Award winning airline
2
• Full Service Carrier– Focus on quality, efficiency,
productivity• Young fleet of 61 Aircraft
– 47 Airbus A320 family – 14 Bombardier
• Star alliance member• Award winning airline
– 6x skytrax best regional award
Traffic in RPKs (m)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
5x
9,13910,732
12,19414,668
2012 2013 2014 2015
ASKs
Using synergies to expand
3
+60%
65
104119
134
2012 2013 2014 2015
Network ‐ Destinations
2x
6.1
8.810.1
11.6
2012 2013 2014 2015
Passengers (m)
Domestic International
2x
30
4550
58
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Fleet
Turboprop
Airbus
61
+17 jet
2013‐2016: Fleet Expansion42 New Aircraft between 2007 and 2016
4
Total Fleet (A/C)
45 5058 61
3
10
16
6 4 3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2016
6 12 1927 30 31 36
44 47
2000 2002 2004 2008 2013 Aegean 2013 Aegean &OA
2014 2015 2016
JET Bombardier
New A/C deliveries
Athens main hub + 6 other A/C bases in Greece and Cyprus
5
ATHENS
HERAKLION
HERAKLIONRHODES
THESSALONIKI
CHANIA
KALAMATA
% international activity by base Athens: 70% Thessaloniki & Larnaca: 15% Regional / Leisure: 15%
LARNACA
2016 :145 destinations 111 international 34 domestic
Strengthening Athens hub
6
2012 22 International routes
2012 40 total routes
*Number of routes from Athens
2016 101 total routes
2016 71 International routes
Connecting Athens with Europe, Middle East and Cyprus
7
Toulouse, Bordeaux, Marseille, Madrid, Barcelona, Milan, Lyon, Rome, Venice, Lisbon, Majorca, Naples,
Nice
NORTH EAST
WEST
NORTH WEST
EAST
SOUTH WEST
Amman, Beirut, Tel Aviv, Larnaca, Riyadh,
Jeddah
Tbilisi,Istanbul,Izmir, Tehran
Kiev, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Sofia, Bucharest,Tirana, Belgrade, Dubrovnik,Ljubljana, Split
Warsaw, Budapest, Prague, Helsinki, Oslo, Tallinn, Vienna,Copenhagen,Krakow, Vilnius
Brussels, Düsseldorf, Hamburg, Frankfurt, Munich, Stuttgart, London, Manchester, Birmingham, Geneva, Zurich, Paris, Nantes, Amsterdam, Dublin, Lille, Luxembourg
Catania, Malta, Bari
Cairo, Alexandria
+2 +2
+1+1
+4
+4Toulouse, Bordeaux, Marseille, Madrid, Barcelona, Milan, Lyon, Rome, Venice, Lisbon, Majorca, Naples, Nice
SOUTH EAST
Delivers 3 x network flows in 7 yearsHUB support & defense
8
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2008 2010 2013 2014 2015
AIA Transfer Pax Departing from Athens
More than 3x
connecting passengers: 25% of total
Tourist arrivals by air
9
• 2010‐2015 => +50% growth in tourist arrivals, Athens potential remains• 2016 ytd growth of 5% (May)• Industry Security concerns/ UK referendum / late booking traveling patterns /
relatively low visibility on forward bookings• Long term potential provided country’s stable environment for private
investments
Source: SETE
3.1 3.44.2
2010 2014 2015
Athens (m)
10.6
14.615.5
2010 2014 2015
Tourist arrivals by air (m)
7.5
11.3 11.3
2010 2014 2015
Rest of Greece (m)
10
Tourist arrivals by source country
Source: Hellenic Statistics, 2015
Top 10 European Source Markets
Arrivals (m)
% totalEurope
2015/2014 Growth
Germany 2.5 19% 22%UK 2.4 18% 15%
France 1.5 11% 4%Italy 1.2 9% 32%
Poland 0.7 5% 22%Netherlands 0.6 5% ‐3%Belgium 0.5 4% 18%Russia 0.5 4% ‐61%Cyprus 0.4 3% 27%
Czech Republic 0.4 4% 6%
EU79%
Rest Europe8%
Asia3%Africa
America7%
Oceania1%
Greek Tourism - breakdown by source market
Total market traffic
11
2016 YTD
+15% Domestic
+7% International Athens
Source: AIA, HCAA
Total passengers (m)
Domestic
International ‐ Athens International ‐ rest of GR airports
35 34 33 32 33 32 3339
42
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TotalInternational ‐ rest of GR airportsInternational ‐ AthensDomestic
• Despite 27%‐28% GDP decline 2008‐2015 market grows by 24%• 2016 market continues to grow ‐ decelerating pace
– Domestic growth driven by competitors capacity & lower fares– International positive ‐ though more moderate than 2015
11 11 10 10 98 8
1012
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
7 6 76
6 5 56
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
18 17 16 1618 18
2023 23
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2012 2013 2014 2015
Aegean ‐ International Pax
2X
Aegean main contributor to strong market growth in Athens
12
25% 30% 33% 35%A3 market share
Pax in m, Source: Aegean Airlines, AIA
Revenue Breakdownshift to international
13
2013: Acquisition of Olympic
44%25%
28% 25%
56%75%
66% 70%
2009 2012 2013 2015
PSO Revenue Domestic Revenue International Revenue
Competitive cost structure
14
• Lean cost structure• Synergies with Olympic• Scale economies• Cost efficiency focus
‐1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
2013 2014 2015
Aircraft fuel
Airport, Overflight, ground
Aircraft leases & depreciation & financials
Employee benefits
Aircraft maintenance
Distribution expenses
Other operating expenses
Catering expenses
Marketing and advertising expenses
other financials
CASK in EUR cents0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
CASK
in EUR cents
Stage length in km
CASK vs stage length – sector comparison
AEGEAN
LCC
Full Service Carriers
24%
20%
14%12%11%8%8%
%total costs
Key financial Highlights 2013‐2015
15
EUR m
EUR m FY:13 FY:14 FY:15 yoySales 850.0 911.8 983.0 8%EBITDAR 181.8 209.5 217.3 4%EBITDAR margin 21% 23% 22%EBITDA 90.9 118.8 111.2 ‐6%EBT 70.9 94.9 100.3 6%Net earnings 52.5 80.4 68.4 ‐15%Net earnings margin 6% 9% 7%
ASKs (m) 10,732 12,194 14,668 20%RASK (EUR cents) 8.0 7.6 6.8 ‐10%CASK (EUR cents) 7.4 6.8 6.1 ‐9%
Domestic Passengers (,000) 4,549 5,240 5,624 7%International Passengers (,000) 4,294 4,873 6,025 24%Total passengers (,000) 8,843 10,113 11,648 15%
EUR m FY:13 FY:14 FY:15Period end cash & other financial assets 244 218 238On balance sheet debt & financial leases 59 58 55Net debt / (cash) (185) (160) (182)
16
61 Aircrafts +3
16.200.000 Available seats +1.1m
145 Destinations +14
34111 International
destinations +14
Domesticdestinations
2016 capacity plans
+0.6m increase international
frequencies - Athens
+0.2m new Athens international routes
+0.15m domestic
+0.15m regional airports
First Quarter 2016 Results
17
• Timing of Aircraft deliveries / underutilization and domesticweakness weigh on seasonally weak quarter
In € millions Q1:15 Q1:16Total revenue 138.1 147.9 7%EBITDAR 6.7 5.9 ‐13%Aircraft leases (20.9) (29.6) 42%EBITDA (14.2) (23.8) 68%Depreciation (3.3) (3.9) 19%EBIT (17.5) (27.7) 59%Financial results 5.2 (1.9) ‐EBT (12.3) (29.6) 140%Income Tax 4.0 8.1 105%Net earnings / (loss) after tax (8.3) (21.5) 157%
ASKs (in millions) 2,233 2,583 16%RASK (Revenue per ASK, in € cents) 6.3 5.9 ‐6%CASK (EBT level, in € cents) 6.8 7.0 3%Load factor ‐ Scheduled services (RPK/ASK) 70.3% 69.3% ‐1.0ppTotal available seats (000) 2,612.9 2,911.0 11%Domestic 995.0 1,054.9 6%International 851.0 955.8 12%Total number of passengers 1,846.1 2,010.6 9%
Summary
18
Our basis
• Solid financial metrics• Efficient cost structure• Strong balance sheet• Diversifying markets exposure vs previous years
• Flexibility
Industry outlook
• Growth potential of incoming leisure / tourism sector
• Athens relatively underserved ‐ room to add medium haul destinations
• Accelerated competition in domestic market + weak economy
• Short term challenge on industry security concerns
• Late bookings pattern
Ourstrategy
• Further exploit network synergies and connectivity
• Distribution cost initiatives• Long term moderate expansion
• IT / ecommerce investments / Value cycle loyalty enhancements
• Address A/C ownership cost (leases + maintenance)
Shareholder Structure
19
*11.6% controlled through Autohellas
Listed on the Athens Exchange
35.4%
31.0%
33.6%Th. Vassilakis *
Other pre‐IPO shareholders
Free Float
Appendix
20
Profit & Loss
21
P&L FY:14 FY:15 In % Q1:15 Q1:16 In%In € millions ‐ Consolidated Results Group change Group changeScheduled Services 748.6 827.4 11% 114.3 126.8 11%Charter 61.4 45.7 ‐25% 1.0 0.5 ‐49%Other (cargo, service charge, executive aviation) 101.9 109.8 8% 22.7 20.6 ‐9%Total revenue 911.8 983.0 8% 138.1 147.9 7%Other operating income 9.7 18.8 93% 2.1 4.3 102%Employee benefits (100.5) (109.4) 9% (24.3) (25.9) 7%Aircraft fuel (232.8) (216.3) ‐7% (30.8) (29.5) ‐4%Aircraft maintenance (77.6) (97.6) 26% (12.9) (17.0) 32%Overflight expenses (53.9) (67.1) 24% (10.6) (11.2) 6%Ground handling expenses (51.5) (60.4) 17% (10.2) (10.8) 5%Airport charges (37.4) (50.7) 36% (9.4) (11.1) 18%Catering expenses (21.1) (24.4) 16% (3.8) (4.4) 15%Distribution expenses (61.2) (73.8) 21% (17.0) (16.7) ‐2%Marketing and advertising expenses (12.3) (14.6) 19% (2.3) (3.3) 45%Other operating expenses (63.8) (70.2) 10% (12.2) (16.6) 36%
EBITDAR 209.5 217.3 4% 6.7 5.9 ‐13%EBITDAR margin 23.0% 22.1% 4.9% 4.0%Aircraft leases (90.7) (106.1) 17% (20.9) (29.6) 42%
EBITDA 118.8 111.2 ‐6% (14.2) (23.8) 68%Depreciation (12.6) (14.0) 12% (3.3) (3.9) 19%
EBIT 106.2 97.2 ‐9% (17.5) (27.7) 59%EBIT margin 11.7% 9.9% ‐12.6% ‐18.7%Financial results (11.3) 3.1 ‐ 5.2 (1.9) ‐
EBT 94.9 100.3 6% (12.3) (29.6) 140%EBT margin 10.4% 10.2% ‐8.9% ‐20.0%Income Tax (14.4) (31.9) 121% 4.0 8.1 105%Net earnings / (loss) after tax 80.4 68.4 ‐15% (8.3) (21.5) 157%
22
Key Operating StatisticsFY:14 FY:15 In % Q1:15 Q1:16 In%
Group change Group changeRASK (Revenue per ASK, in € cents) 7.6 6.8 ‐10% 6.3 5.9 ‐6%Yield (Revenue per RPK, in € cents) 9.6 8.9 ‐8% 9.0 8.5 ‐5%CASK (EBITDAR level, in € cents) 5.8 5.3 ‐8% 6.0 5.7 ‐5%CASK (EBITDAR level, in € cents) ‐ excl. fuel costs 3.9 3.9 ‐1% 4.6 4.5 ‐2%CASK (EBT level, in € cents) 6.8 6.1 ‐9% 6.8 7.0 3%CASK (EBT level, in € cents) ‐ excl. fuel costs 4.9 4.7 ‐4% 5.5 5.9 8%
Capacity FY:14 FY:15 In % Q1:15 Q1:16 In %ASKs (in millions) 12,194 14,668 20% 2,233 2,583 16%Total available seats (000) 13,088 15,194 16% 2,613 2,911 11%Total Block Hours 148,062 167,511 13% 27,428 30,043 10%Total Sectors Flown 99,486 109,546 10% 19,150 20,374 6%Average capacity per flight 132 139 5% 136 143 5%Average sector length (km) 767 809 5% 725 760 5%Passengers (000)By type of service :Schedule passengers 9,574 11,216 17% 1,844 2,006 9%Charter passengers 539 433 ‐20% 3 4 63%By network :Domestic 5,240 5,624 7% 995 1,055 6%International 4,873 6,025 24% 851 956 12%Total number of passengers 10,113 11,648 15% 1,846 2,011 9%RPKs (in millions) 9,584 11,285 18% 1,566 1,788 14%Pax/flight 102 106 5% 96 99 2%Load factor ‐ Scheduled (Pax/AVS) 77.3% 76.9% ‐0.5pp 70.7% 69.1% ‐1.6ppLoad factor ‐ Scheduled (RPK/ASK) 78.3% 76.9% ‐1.5pp 70.3% 69.3% ‐1.0pp
23
BALANCE SHEET GROUP – EUR ,000 31/12/2014 31/12/2015Intangible assets 47,908.42 47,602.09Goodwill 39,756.30 39,756.30Tangible assets 80,488.90 103,937.97Advances for assets acquisition 56,024.47 30,994.76Financial Assets available for sale 0 8901.82Deferred tax assets 21,158.79 16,732.90Other long term assets 19,984.96 25,998.48Hedging derivatives 10,631.83 232.68Total non current assets 275,953.67 274,157.00Inventories 13,237.74 13,181.67Customers and other receivables 87,648.24 104,475.87Advances 10,602.27 14,013.43Financial Assets at fair value 10,903.27 39,609.11Hedging derivatives 24,139.12 34,072.06Restricted cash 16,045.15 36,392.03Cash and cash equivalents 191,436.88 152,932.85Total current assets 354,012.67 394,677.02TOTAL ASSETS 629,966.34 668,834.02Share capital 46,421.11 46,421.11Share premium account 72,775.98 72,775.98Other reserves ‐1,443.53 ‐13,187.28Retained profit / (loss) 101,238.75 115,964.62Total equity 218,992.31 221,974.43Finance lease contracts liabilities 49,649.50 45,175.34Derivative contracts liabilities 5,142.25 12,555.62Provisions for retirement benefits obligations 6,600.34 8,405.35Provisions 29,200.89 19,915.62Other long term liabilities 34,583.64 27,832.85Total long term liabilities 125,176.62 113,884.78Suppliers 63,437.72 77,123.21Long term finance leases liabilities payable next year 8,836.13 10,196.61Other short term liabilities 70,494.90 74,495.07Liabilities from tickets sold but not flown 65,728.82 83,961.75Accrued expenses 23,472.72 28,818.35Hedging derivatives 35,171.21 48,940.30Income tax liabilities 15,417.38 7,822.27Provisions 3,238.53 1,617.25Total short term liabilities 285,797.41 332,974.81Total liabilities 410,974.03 446,859.59TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 629,966.34 668,834.02
Balance Sheet
24
Cash Flow Statement – Group ‐ – EUR ,000 31/12/2014 31/12/2015Profit / (loss) before tax 94,890.7 100,316.9Adjustments for:Depreciation of tangible assets 12,551.2 14,010.0Loss from impairment of assets 554.0 (326.3)Provisions 2,718.3 (18,007.8)Foreign currency exchange (gains) / losses 8,432.0 (7,850.8)(Profit) / loss from investing activities (3,996.8) (1,351.6)Finance Cost 6,955.8 5,869.8Cash flows from operating activities before changes in working capital 122,105.0 92,660.3Changes in working capital(Increase)/Decrease in inventories (1,647.7) 248.2(Increase)/Decrease in trade & other receivables (25,033.1) (29,890.5)
Increase/(Decrease) in trade payables 36,472.4 28,218.0Total changes in working capital 9,791.5 (1,424.3)Interest expenses payable (3,245.4) (2,853.8)Income tax paid (17,137.2) (18,429.3)Net cash flows from operating activities 111,514.0 69,953.0Cash flows from investing activitiesPurchase of assets (13,698.7) (20,236.5)Proceeds from sale of assets 19.5 1,980.7Advances for the acquisition of assets (34,889.0) 30,622.4Purchase of Financial Assets (3,492.5) (43,501.3)Sale of Financial Assets 9,136.5 12,301.6Acquisition of subsidiaries (10,400.0) (10,400.0)Interest and other financial income received 2,282.1 734.9Net cash flows from investing activities (51,042.2) (28,498.2)Cash flows from financing activitiesDividends 0.0 (49,885.3)Share capital return (71,234.9) 0.0Share capital increase expenses (785.6) 0.0Finance leases capital repayment (7,846.4) (9,726.5)Net cash flows from financing activities (79,866.9) (59,611.9)Net (decrease)/ increase in cash and cash equivalents (19,395.0) (18,157.2)Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the year 226,877.0 207,482.0Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 207,482.0 189,324.9
Cash Flow Statement
Key financial metrics
25Note: FY2013 pro‐forma, assuming full consolidation of Olympic Air for the full year
EUR m FY:08 FY:09 FY:10 FY:11 FY:12 FY:13 FY:14 FY:15
Period end cash & other financial assets183 213 196 172 156 244 218 238
On balance sheet debt & financial leases86 83 103 98 82 59 58 55
Net debt / (cash) (97) (130) (93) (73) (74) (185) (160) (182)
EUR m FY:08 FY:09 FY:10 FY:11 FY:12 FY:13 FY:14 FY:15Sales 559 553 516 580 563 850 912 983EBITDAR 102 96 76 62 73 182 209 217EBITDAR margin 18% 17% 15% 11% 13% 21% 23% 22%EBITDA 57 32 1 (18) 3 91 119 111EBITDA margin 10% 6% 0% ‐3% 1% 11% 13% 11%Net earnings 29 23 (23) (27) (10) 52 80 68Net earnings margin 5% 4% ‐5% ‐5% ‐2% 6% 9% 7%
EUR m FY:08 FY:09 FY:10 FY:11 FY:12 FY:13 FY:14 FY:15
Operating cash flow (before taxes & interest payments) 65 49 (5) 4 21 108 132 91
26
2016 capacity plans: 16m total seats +1m vs 2015Increasing frequencies on existing routes and new
international destinations launched
•Dublin
IrelandIreland
•Nice• Lille
FranceFrance
•Napoli• Bari
Italy
• Luxembourg
Luxemburg
•Amsterdam
Netherland
• Lisbon
Portugal
•Palma de Majorca
Spain
• Ljubljana
Slovenia
• Jeddah
S. Arabia
•Krakow
Poland
•Vilnius
Lithuania
• Split
CroatiaCroatia
27
2016: 101 Destinations from ATHENS + 1 million Seats
6.3 6.4
9.210.1
11.412.5
4.34.7
6.6
7.8
8.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AVS
PAX
35destinations
40destinations
64destinations
76destinations
89destinations
101destinations
22international
28international
34international
47international
59international
71international
Athens opportunity Underserved in terms of destinations
28
AthensATH
Airport BarcelonaBCN
RomeFCO
FrankfurtFRA
IstanbulIST
LisbonLIS
ViennaVIE
ZurichZRH
Short haul(< 5 hours)
Long haul(>5 hours)
2016
92
86
6
2005
79
74
5
2014
192
165
27
2005
100
89
11
2014
180
135
45
2005
141
99
42
2014
291
166
125
2005
282
172
110
2014
220
164
56
2005
110
95
15
2014
123
93
30
2005
77
62
15
2014
176
152
24
2005
165
137
28
2014
176
133
43
2005
140
110
30
Number of international destinations served from airport
Source: OAG, Mckinsey study (October 2014), A3
Last decade at a glance
29
€ m
In € cents
FY04-FY13: Aegean standalone / Group FY:13 & FY:14 include full consolidation of Olympic Air
261440
516 563683
850 912983
Revenue
Revenue
2% 6% 9% 10% 7% 6%
‐4%‐5% ‐2%
12% 8% 10%10%
‐40
‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pre‐tax profit / margin
EBT Margin
1.0 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.9 6.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0 Passenger Traffic
International Pax Domestic Pax
5.7 6.2 6.4 5.9 6.1 5.2 5.1 4.4 4.3 4.2 5.3 4.9 4.70
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0Unit costs / stage length
CASK (excl fuel) Average stage length km
3,692 4,023
6,216
8,3089,139
10,73212,194
14,668
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
ASKs
62%71% 69% 68%
74% 77%
40%45%50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%
Load Factor
Aegean Share
30
• Listed in Athens Exchange• Bloomberg AEGN GA / Reuters AGNr.AT• IPO : July 2007 / €7.60 IPO price• Dividends / Returns:
– DPS FY08 €0.25– DPS FY09 €0.13– Capital return FY13 €1.00– DPS FY14 €0.70– DPS FY15 €0.70
• Contact:[email protected]+30 210 626 1660
Disclaimer
31
Forward Looking StatementsExcept for historical information, the statements made or information contained in this presentation are forward‐looking in nature. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. As such, they are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the Company’s control, which could cause the actual future performance to differ materially from those referenced, projected or contemplated herein by any forward‐looking statement, including but not limited to the following: overall passenger traffic; the airline ticket pricing environment; the international expansion of our route network; seasonal fluctuations in passenger travel; aviation fuel prices; landing and navigation fee changes; changes in aircraft acquisition, leasing and other operating expenses; developments in government regulations and labour relations; the cost of our ground handling operations; the future development of AIA, the Greek regional airports and the international airports; foreign currency fluctuations, in particular between the euro and the U.S. dollar; the progress of our code‐shared and interline arrangements; the availability of additional slots or landing rights at existing airports and the availability of new airports for expansion; interest rate fluctuations; extraordinary events, such as accidents, terrorist attacks or threats of terrorist attacks, natural disasters and outbreaks of contagious diseases; the rates of taxes payable; and general economic conditions in Greece and the European Union. Although the Company believes the expectations reflected in such forward‐looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that its expectations will be attained. Therefore, past performance and/or forward‐looking statements are not to be treated as guarantees of future performance. The forward‐looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward‐looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.