- 0 - School Portfolio Management Attendance Boundary Adjustment Recommendations December 12, 2007.

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School Portfolio Management

Attendance Boundary Adjustment Recommendations

December 12, 2007

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I. Coherent Governance Policy OE 12.5

II. Hillcrest

III. Middle School Boundaries

Appendix: Hillcrest Analysis

School Portfolio Management

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School Portfolio Management Framework

Coherent Governance Policy (Operational Expectation OE-12)• The Chief Executive Officer shall assure the availability of a diverse portfolio of high

quality schools (traditional, new small schools, charter schools, etc) for students and families both within neighborhoods and district-wide

• The Chief Executive Officer shall:

1. Assure that all district quality standards apply equally to all schools regardless of size and type

2. Regularly monitor all schools to assure their cost-effectiveness and compliance with quality standards

3. Assure the sustainability of all schools and programs, especially in a declining revenue environment

4. Create meaningful partnerships between district and charter schools that improve the conditions for both and that enhance choices for students and their families

5. Review school attendance boundaries annually to assure reasonable balance in student enrollment

• As per Board policy, this presentation specifically makes recommendations regarding Operational Expectation 12.5

• The adjustments presented herein are a recommendation to right size boundaries which will ensure families have access to neighborhood schools.

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Hillcrest: Solution for Overcrowding

Recommendation

1. Shrink attendance boundary to ensure that the number of neighborhood students more closely approximates the number of seats at Hillcrest

2. Cap kindergarten class at 40 students beginning in 2008 (NOTE: this does not necessarily mean classes of 20:1)

3. Cap 6th grade class at 20 students beginning in 2009 (IF there is not sufficient attrition to ensure that students current progressing through the school can fit. This will be reviewed annually)

Rationale*

• The number of students living in the current Hillcrest attendance area is increasing: Long-term enrollment trends and current neighborhood birth rates suggest there will be 50-60 neighborhood kindergartners living in the current attendance boundary for each of the next 5 years• The current facility can hold no more than 310 students. There is neither space nor funding to create additional capacity on site.• Eliminating the middle school was an option considered. However, doing so would still require a reduction in neighborhood demand for the school, as this alternative would result in an estimated school size of 340-360 students • Shrinking the boundary to reduce the number of neighborhood students, while also reducing the number of middle school students overtime is the most equitable solution to overcrowding• Siblings of current Hillcrest students living in the portions of the former attendance boundary now re-districted to Chabot and Montclair will be “grandfathered” for one year by receiving priority over other non-sibling neighborhood families (as long as there is space)

* More detailed analysis can be found in Appendix

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Hillcrest: Recommended Boundary Adjustment

Portion re-districted to CHABOT recommended to be drawn along:

• Broadway Terrace

Estimated number of Kindergarten students impacted: 5-15

Portion re-districted to MONTCLAIR recommended to be drawn along:

• Hilltop, Harbord, Sheridan

Estimated number of Kindergarten students impacted: 5-15

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Adjustment of Middle School Boundaries Recommendation

Right size attendance boundaries across the district as shown on the next page. These adjustments will result in the following estimated changes to residents within each boundary:

Boundaries Gaining Residents• Claremont (+187)• Simmons (+161)• Edna Brewer (+81)• Madison (+160)• Montera (+105)

Boundaries Losing Residents• Elmhurst (-160)• Bret Harte (-113)• Havenscourt (-154)• Roosevelt (-86)• Westlake (-187)

Rationale

• We believe that families should have access to neighborhood schools, as articulated in Board Policy 5116.

• Currently, many of the middle school attendance boundaries do not represent a number of residents equivalent to the school facilities capacities within their neighborhood. For example, Elmhurst and Havenscourt each have many more families living in their neighborhoods than there are seats at neighborhood schools. In contrast, Claremont and Calvin Simmons currently have many less students living in their neighborhood than there are seats at neighborhood schools

• In making these boundary adjustments, it is important to note that OUSD’s current options policy allows students to select any school across the city. With only an estimated 60% of students attending school within their neighborhood, we know that these attendance boundaries do not reflect the actual students attending each school. However it is important that we maintain a system within which families have the OPTION to attend their neighborhood school should they so desire

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Adjustment of Middle School Boundaries

[Insert picture of boundary changes with exact streets]

I 580

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76 from Havenscourt to Frick

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81 from Bret Harte to Brewer

75 from Havenscourt to Sim

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86 from Roosevelt to Sim

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267 residents from W

estlake to North Oakland

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• The map below represents the recommended new middle school attendance boundaries (for example, the recommended new North Oakland boundary is BLUE)

• Regions with annotated streets represent the areas which are proposed to be moved

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Summary of Recommendations and Next Steps

Recommendation Schools Next Steps (IF recommendation is approved by the Board of Education)

Attendance Boundary Adjustment (2)

Hillcrest

Middle School Boundaries

• Coordination with student assignment office to ensure students are assigned through the options process using new attendance boundaries• Communication with families in impacted regions to support smooth transition

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Board of Education: Next Steps

Date Topic

December 19th • Board of Education decision regarding attendance boundary adjustments

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Appendix:Hillcrest Analysis

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Defining and Measuring Grade Progressions

• A grade progression measures the change in the number of students from one year to the next

•This year’s Kindergartners become next year’s first graders and the following year’s second graders and so on.

EXAMPLE: In 2004, 38 Hillcrest Kindergartners were enrolled. In 2005, 32 1st graders were enrolled.

• The K to 1st (K>1) grade progression between 2004 and 2005 was 84.2%

• 15.8% of the students left between K and 1st grade from 2004 to 2005

`

Start with today’s students by grade, then age them one grade

K

1

2

3

4

etc.

1

2

3

4

5

etc.

some students leave, othersenter

2004:38 2005:

32

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Factors Considered in for the Scenario Models

• The standard Grade Progression Model (also referred to as Attrition Rate Model) is used to forecast future Hillcrest enrollment

Several Grade Progressions (GP’s) were considered

•Using GP’s from a particular year

•Average GP’s from the last 2 years



•Maximum GP’s of the last 2, 3, 5 years

** Both OUSD and LRPC’s analysis indicate that grade progressions in recent years are significantly higher than in the past **

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LRPC Scenario 1 (Table S-4 in report)Scenario 1 presented by the LRPC assumes 40 future incoming K students with no change to the middle school. This scenario forecasts a slight increase of students until the year 2011, before reaching a steady state of the optimal 310 students

Challenges to Scenario:

•As the LRPC has noted, attrition rates have declined significantly in recent years. The attrition rates used in this model are lower than attrition rates that were actually experienced between 2006 and 2007

•Most notably, the LRPC is utilizing an average grade progression of 80.2% between 5th and 6th grade whereas the actual grade progression between 2006 and 2007 was 93.1%

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Scenario 2 presented by the LRPC assumes 40 future incoming K students with no change to the middle school. This model forecasts a continued increase in enrollment over the next 6 years

•The attrition rates used in this model are more realistic and more accurately reflect current attrition rates

Challenges to Scenario:

•Hillcrest school does not have the facilities capacity to house this number of students

LRPC Scenario 2 (Table S-5 in report)

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How Grade Progressions were Determined

Medium Scenario uses grade progressions we feel most accurately reflects what is currently happening at the school

•Average of the 2 highest grade progressions of the last 3 years

•From 5th to 6th grade, the higher grade progression from the 06>07 school year was used to account for a shift in the attrition rate from historical patterns

High Scenario

•Maximum grade progressions from the last three years for each grade

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Scenarios Considered

OUSD SCENARIO 1: Eliminate middle school (This scenario was not proposed by the LRPC. However as a district, we felt that it was very important to consider this alternative given that it was recommended by a number of pre-Kindergarten Hillcrest families)Advantages:

• Allows a greater number of Kindergartens in incoming classes

Challenges:

• Strong likelihood based on survey results that there will be at least 60 Kindergarten families within the current Hillcrest boundary

•Hillcrest facilities cannot sustain future incoming classes of 60 Kindergarteners

Medium Scenario with GP’s as discussed on Slide #5

High Scenario with Maximum GP’s of the last 3 years

345 projected students is significantly greater than Hillcrest’s facility capacity

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Scenarios Considered

OUSD SCENARIO 2: Cap at 40 Kindergarteners with no change to middle schoolAdvantages:

•Programmatically, the scenario would preserve the community’s commitment to preserving a K-8 option for families

Challenges:

• Based on even a relatively conservative prediction of future grade progressions, this solution does not fully solve the challenges of overcrowding

• With the uncertainty of future grade progressions, it’s very possible that this solution would not at all solve the situation

Medium Scenario with GP’s as discussed on Slide #5

High Scenario with Maximum GP’s of the last 3 years

355 projected students is significantly greater than Hillcrest’s facility capacity

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Scenarios ConsideredOUSD SCENARIO 3: • Reduce cohort of neighborhood students by shrinking boundary

• Cap Kindergarten at 40

• Annually review attrition rates and cap Middle School at 20 if current grade progressions continue*

Challenges: •Enrollment will still be over the facilities capacity of 310 for the next three years

Advantages:•As requested by the LRPC, model utilizes a more realistic attrition rate for projecting student population.

•Reduces some overcrowding while preserving the community’s commitment to a K-8 optionMedium Scenario with GP’s as discussed on

Slide #5High Scenario with Maximum GP’s of the last 3

years

* Beginning in 2009, all 5th grade Hillcrest students must fill out an Options form. Middle school seats will be drawn through a lottery process

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Recommendation

1. Shrink attendance boundary to reduce number of students living in boundary

• Approximately 5-15 kindergarteners will be redistricted to Chabot *

• Approximately 5-15 kindergarteners will be redistricted to Montclair *

**NOTE: These numbers are only estimates. Until OUSD has access to ALL specific resident information about incoming students gathered by the LRPC, we cannot make any assurances that these adjustments will fully reduce over demand for the 2008 kindergarten seats **

2. Cap Kindergarten at 40 students beginning in 2008

• This does NOT necessarily mean 2 classes of 20 K

3. Annually review attrition rates and cap Middle School at 20 if current grade progressions continue*

4. Adhere to published OUSD enrollment priorities and administrative regulations

* These figures may range according to new data presented

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OUSD Enrollment Priorities

• Enrollment Priorities

• Neighborhood students

• Sibling

• Non-neighborhood

• Program Improvement neighborhood

• Open Lottery

• Enrollment Dates

• December 7th, 8th: Options Fair

• 1/15/08: Options forms due

• 3/1/08: Placement letters mailed

• 3/2/08-Ongoing: Appeals window

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Priority Order

Current Hillcres

t Student

s

Live in New Hillcrest

Boundary

Live in Re-

districted portion

Never Lived at Hillcrest

Sibling Non-Sibling

1** Students are

GUARANTEED their

space at Hillcrest **

X

2 X X

3 ** Grandfathered for

08-09 only** X X

4 X X

5 X X

6 X X XOR


1) Current Hillcrest Student Population ** Students are GUARANTEED their space at Hillcrest. They do not participate in the options process **

2) Students living in the “New Hillcrest Boundary” with a sibling already attending Hillcrest

3) For the 2008-2009 school year only, “grandfathered” students who live in the previously defined Hillcrest boundary with a sibling already attending Hillcrest

4) Students living in the “New Hillcrest Boundary” without a sibling attending Hillcrest

5) Students who do not live in the Hillcrest boundary with a sibling already attending Hillcrest

6) Students who do not live in the Hillcrest boundary without a sibling already attending Hillcrest

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Questions Asked by the LRPC• What is the current OUSD policy concerning what happens to current Hillcrest students whose addresses are reallocated to alternative attendance areas?

•These students can continue at Hillcrest. If these students wish to select a new school, they will receive first priority at their new neighborhood school

•Is there a current OUSD policy concerning what happens to the siblings of existing Hillcrest students?

•Pursuant to AR (Administrative Regulation) 5116, when boundaries are changed, the Superintendent or designee will make every effort to keep siblings together, therefore “grandfathering” the neighborhood sibling priority based on space availability

•If younger siblings of existing Hillcrest students are grandfathered into the school despite their home addresses falling into a new alternative attendance area, does current or proposed policy dictate that they be given the same (or less) priority that new prospective Hillcrest students residing in the attendance area (who do not have siblings already at the school) when it comes to allocating kindergarten slots?

•Pursuant to AR 5116, during the 2008-2009 school year, students who reside in the re-districted portion with a sibling already attending Hillcrest will have priority over students who live in the Hillcrest neighborhood without siblings.

•Pursuant to AR 5116, after 2008-2009, students living in the Hillcrest neighborhood without siblings will be prioritized before students who reside in the re-districted portion with a sibling already attending Hillcrest.

• How will the middle school lottery occur for 2009?– If the natural attrition rate is less than the number of middle school seats

available, a lottery process will take place at the district according to the 2009 Board Options policies. Options policies will be reviewed annually and could be altered as a result of the review

• What happens if there is an extra seat in 7th grade as a result of 6th grade students not moving forward?

– Because of ongoing challenges with overcrowding, this space will not be refilled.• How will this information be communicated to Real Estate Agents?

- The options policy will be distributed and made available to the Oakland Realtor’s Association and broadcast in the Real Estate Association’s newsletter

- A meeting will be set up after the Options policies are distributed

Questions Asked by the LRPC

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Hillcrest: Impact on Neighboring Schools

Chabot: Number of Residents • In order to determine whether the number of neighborhood students are increasing, we examine the number of district residents

• A resident is defined as an OUSD student whose address falls within the Chabot boundary, regardless of where they attend school

•For example, if a student lives in the Chabot neighborhood but attends school at Peralta, they are counted as a Chabot resident

• The number of residents in the Chabot neighborhood increased most significantly between 2005 and 2006

• Though the number of residents increased slightly in the Chabot neighborhood, enrollment at the school decreased slightly

2006 Enrollment:

490

2007 Enrollment:

485

Grade 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

K 30 33 38 36 39 42 47 57 50 52 51 51 51 51 511st 28 28 31 38 33 35 36 46 60 51 52 52 52 52 522nd 27 25 27 32 35 31 33 32 36 50 42 44 43 43 433rd 30 23 21 29 26 33 29 29 31 33 46 39 40 40 404th 26 22 20 19 31 24 35 28 27 29 32 44 37 38 385th 15 24 23 17 18 31 25 34 27 26 28 31 43 36 37K-5 156 155 160 171 182 196 205 226 231 241 252 260 266 261 261

Chabot Resident Data

Chabot: Neighborhood/Non-Neighborhood Students • Chabot School has always had an excess number of seats available to non-neighborhood students

• 55% of students at Chabot come from outside the neighborhood

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Chabot: Possible impact on incoming Kindergarten class • In 2007, 36% of the Kindergarten class came from outside the neighborhood

• With approximately 13 new Hillcrest K students, 16% of the seats will be available for non-neighborhood students

Anticipated Change in K with Hillcrest Families

26

12

47

61

010203040506070

Currrent K Split New K Split (with additionalHillcrest families)

Non-Neighborhood Neighborhood

Neighborhood going outside for

school:

14 Students

Neighborhood students attending

School:

217 Students

Number of OUSD elementary school students living in the Chabot Neighborhood: 231

Students from other

neighborhoods:

268 Students

Chabot 2007-2008: Where Students Live and Go to School

94% of students who live in the neighborhood attend school in the neighborhood

Number of non SDC students attending Chabot: 485Emerson 32Outside Oakland Addresses 20Piedmont Avenue 19Lakeview 16Hillcrest 15Glenview 11Howard 10Lafayette 9Peralta 9Santa Fe 9Sequoia 7Martin Luther King Jr 7Franklin 6Carl Munck 6REACH Academy 6Cleveland 5Highland 5Maxwell Park 5Montclair 5Henry J. Kaiser 5Marshall 5Burckhalter 4Laurel 4Sobrante Park 4Hoover 4Addresses With Invalid Formats 4Garfield 3Manzanita 3Joaquin Miller 3Stonehurst 3Webster Academy 3Bella Vista 2Fruitvale 2Grass Valley 2Jefferson 2Lincoln 2Allendale 1Crocker Highlands 1La Escuelita 1Lazear Elementary 1Lockwood 1Markham 1Melrose 1Prescott 1Redwood Heights 1Thornhill 1Cesar Chavez Learning Center 1Total 268

Hillcrest 6Peralta 6Piedmont Avenue 1Bella Vista 1Total 14

Chabot: Projected Enrollment

• Chabot’s facilities are currently being used at capacity.

• Chabot is projected to be able to accommodate the increased number of residents, with fewer available seats for non-neighborhood students.

• In 2007, 45% of Chabot’s students come from within the neighborhood. Over the next five years, enrollment is projected to shift to a mix of 67% neighborhood, because of:

– Higher grade progressions for neighborhood students

– Smaller incoming non-neighborhood K class and fewer non-neighborhood students progressing through the grades

Chabot: Projected Enrollment 2006-2013

268279 256231

205179

157 148

330314298

273251

226211 217

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

En

ro

llm

en

t

Non-Neighborhood Neighborhood

Montclair: Number of Residents • In order to determine whether the number of neighborhood students are increasing, we examine the number of district residents

• A resident is defined as an OUSD student whose address falls within the Montclair boundary, regardless of where they attend school

•For example, if a student lives in the Montclair neighborhood but attends school at Joaquin Miller, they are counted as a Montclair resident

• The number of residents in the Montclair neighborhood have increased in the last two years

• In 2007, the number of Montclair residents increased, but the enrollment at the school remained relatively constant, leaving fewer seats for non-neighborhood students

2006 Enrollment:

345

2007 Enrollment:

350

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GradeK 34 43 33 41 38 40 53 51 53 54 54 54 54 54

1st 33 34 37 31 43 36 39 56 52 54 55 55 55 552nd 34 31 40 39 31 42 33 35 58 49 51 52 52 523rd 40 35 30 38 38 26 35 34 33 54 46 48 49 494th 45 36 33 30 41 39 27 37 33 34 55 47 49 505th 30 41 30 31 31 40 33 24 37 30 31 51 43 45K-5 216 220 203 210 222 223 220 237 268 275 293 307 302 304

Montclair K-5 Residents

Montclair: Neighborhood/Non-Neighborhood Students In the last few years, Montclair School has had an excess number of seats available to non-neighborhood students

• In 2007, the number of non-neighborhood students increased, leaving fewer seats for non-neighborhood students

Neighborhood going outside for

school:

39 Students

Neighborhood students attending

School:

229 Students

Number of OUSD elementary school students living in the Montclair Neighborhood: 268

Students from other

neighborhoods:

121 Students

Montclair 2007-2008: Where Students Live and Go to School

85% of students who live in the neighborhood attend school in the neighborhood

Number of non SDC students attending Montclair: 350Glenview 17Joaquin Miller 12Laurel 8Thornhill 7Burckhalter 6Maxwell Park 5Sequoia 5Invalid Addresses 5Emerson 4Fruitvale 4Redwood Heights 4Santa Fe 4Carl Munck 4Allendale 3Manzanita 3Markham 3Outside Oakland Addresses3Cleveland 2Jefferson 2Horace Mann 2Peralta 2Stonehurst 2Webster Academy 2Bella Vista 1Franklin 1Garfield 1Grass Valley 1Hillcrest 1Lakeview 1Lincoln 1Parker 1Sobrante Park 1Whittier 1Howard 1REACH Academy 1Total 121

Joaquin Miller 9Thornhill 9Hillcrest 7Chabot 5Redwood Heights 2Bella Vista 1Fruitvale 1Glenview 1Laurel 1Piedmont Avenue 1Henry J. Kaiser 1Tilden Elementary 1Total 39

Montclair: Number of Residents vs. Facilities Capacity• Montclair’s facility can hold approximately 350 students

• Based on the current Montclair attendance boundary, even if every neighborhood student chose to attend the school, there would be approximately 50 additional seats available for non-neighborhood students

• Currently, only 85% of neighborhood families are choosing to attend the school. This suggests that there would be more than these 50 seats available for non-neighborhood students

275 293 307 302 304

75 57 43 48 46

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Residents Non-Residents

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Montclair: Possible impact on incoming Kindergarten class • In 2007, approximately 18% of the Kindergarten class came from outside the neighborhood

• With approximately 7 new Hillcrest K students, 10% of the seats will be available for non-neighborhood students

*

* The school could take 60 kindergartners next year, an increase of three students over this year’s current class

Montclair: Projected Enrollment

• Montclair’s facilities are currently being used at capacity.

• Montclair is projected to be able to accommodate the increased number of residents, with fewer available seats for non-neighborhood students.

• In 2007, 65% of Montclair’s students come from outside the neighborhood. Over the next five years, enrollment is projected to shift to a mix of 87% neighborhood, 13% non-neighborhood because of:

– Higher grade progressions for neighborhood students

– Smaller incoming non-neighborhood K class and fewer non-neighborhood students progressing through the grades

- 0 - School Portfolio Management Attendance Boundary Adjustment Recommendations December 12, 2007.

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