Global Science Conference, Wageningen, Oct 2011

Steps to climate-smart

agriculture........

Bruce CampbellCCAFS

a) The global challengesb) Climate-smart agriculture

(CSA)c) Key steps to CSAd) Conclusions

Outline

1. A UNFCCC work program on agriculture

2. “Early Action” – building on proven technologies, practices and approaches

3. Major investments through “learning-by-doing”

4. Major realignment of research agendas

Challenge 1:Food security

Challenge 2: Adaptation

To 2090, taking 14 climate models

Four degree rise

Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS

>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

Length of growing season is likely to decline..

Challenge 3: Reducing the ecological footprint

Rockström et al. (2009); Bennett et al. (in prep.)

Global freshwater

useChange in land

use

Biodiversity loss

Phosphorous cycle

Nitrogen cycle

Ocean acidification

Climate change

Safe operating

space

Current status

Role of Agricultur

e

b) Climate-

smart agricultu

re

Meridian Institute, 2011

Food Security

Adaptation

Mitigation

CSA is not business as usual?

Multiple benefitsAttention to synergies and

trade-offsNew partnershipsNew types of finance

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c) Steps to Climate-Smart Agriculture

T1. A UNFCCC work program on agriculture

Potential topics (examples!)

• Safeguards for most vulnerable: female-headed households, food insecure, smallholder producers

• Methods for prioritising adaptation and/or mitigation options

• Methods to reward the adoption of CS agricultural practices

• Methods to measure, report and monitor (MRV) • Environmental co-benefits beyond GHG emissions

(e.g. Biodiversity, pollution of waterways)

2. “Early Action” –

building on proven

technologies, practices and approaches

• Conducting policy analysis• Strengthening/formulating

national policies• Developing national and

regional learning platforms• Designing incentive systems• Developing MRV systems• On-the-ground

implementationMeridian Institute, 2011

• “treeless” to treed - 5 million ha• 4.5 million people• National policy change• Support to groups and networks• Double yields in some places• Increased dry season fodder

Assisted (natural) regeneration of trees in the Sahelian drylands

Conservation agriculturein southern Africa

• Minimum tillage• Soil cover• Rotate crops• 180.000 farmers in 2010• 1 3 tonnes/ha maize

Weather advisories in the Sahelian drylands

Institutions to support safety nets to help

vulnerable populations deal with climate extremes (e.g. cash and in-kind transfers)

3. Major investments through “learning-by-doing” (action research)

Alternate wetting and drying

30% water

25-50% GHG

Yield not compromised

Other candidate examples• Index-based livestock insurance• Carbon finance as catalyst to .......

– facilitate grassland restoration and increased livestock productivity

– Agroforestry– ....

• Complementary water storage options

• Etc

4) Major realignment of

research agenda22

i) Decision support tools for understanding trade-offs and selecting development pathways and options

Select one of 6 climate models (or the average)

Select emissions scenario

Select location

24

Farms of the future

ISPC Science Forum 2011

Where can you find the future climate of site x today?

Sites in red have high similarity to site x in the rice growing season (June-September).

Current2020

Understanding agricultural transformations

2050

ii) Climate risk management

From satellite to cell phone?

Keny

a

Tanz

ania

Ugand

a

Ethi

opia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Male-headedFemale-headed

% of households

iii) Multi-benefit and integrated systems

population (millions)

295.1

1099.2

2674

480.3

Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World

Mixed systems produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World and the share will increase to over 60% by 2030

Agro-pastoralIntensive

Mixed-extensive

Mixed-intensive

iv) Pro-poor mitigation

Kasterine and Venzetti (2010)Keane et al. (2009)Edwards-Jones et al. (2009)

LambDairy

Production Transport

CO

2 p

er

ton

of

pro

du

cti

on

• Incentives and institutions

• Technologies• Life-cycle analyses

Conclusions

Steps to CSAGlobal Framework

Early Action Large-scale learning by doing

Research

SBSTA Work program on agriculture

Financial commitments in Cancun Agreement honored

Implementationof proven options•Conservation agriculture

•Assisted natural regeneration

• Weather advisories

•Institutions for safety nets

•……..

•Livestock risk insurance

•Alternate wetting and drying

•…………

•Ag-climate science products for decision support

• Transformational adaptation

•Integrated and multi-benefit systems

•Climate risk management

National Policy development

“Best bets”

www.ccafs.cgiar.org

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