Adaptation Resources for Agriculture: Adaptation Workbook Steps
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Transcript of Adaptation Resources for Agriculture: Adaptation Workbook Steps
Adaptation Workbook Process
Step 1: DEFINE location, project, and management goals.
Key Question: Where are you working? What are your management goals
and objectives for this area?
Step 1: DEFINE location, project, and management goals.
Property or Project Area:
Kulungi dairy farm; Kucera crop lands
Location: Leelanau Peninsula, MI; Des Moines lobe area, IA
Management Unit or Topic Management Goals Management Objectives
Split out any areas with different commodities or uses (optional): Cropland Forest
Broad, general intention of management, such as: Improve farm
production and revenue
Measurable, planned results to achieve goals, such as: Maintain animal health Expand herd from 800 to 150
animals over next 5 years
Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.
Key Question: How might the area be uniquely
affected by climatic change and subsequent impacts?
How might regional impacts be different in the project area?
Resource: Climate Change Assessments
Adaptation Workbook Process
Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.
Regional Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities From regional vulnerability assessments
Mgmt. Unit or Topic
Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Regional For the Property or Project AreaFrom vulnerability assessments Based on your knowledge of the site
cropland More extreme precipitation events Slope and soil texture on east side of property is vulnerable to flooding
Increased potential for summer drought
Hill tops are especially vulnerable to growing season moisture stress
Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.
Vulnerability Determination
Step 2: ASSESS site-specific climate change impacts and vulnerabilities.
Example—Kucera FarmRegional Climate Change
Impacts and VulnerabilitiesClimate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities
for the Area of InterestVulnerability
DeterminationWarmer temperatures: Nebraska temperatures have warmed about 1°F since 1895 and are projected to increase another 4‐5°F to 8‐9°F by 2071‐99. Extreme heat days & waves are expected to continue increasing.
Longer/warmer growing seasons: two more weeks by mid‐century
Increased potential for drought: due to higher temperature and increased temp variability
Altered precipitation: Little change in winter/spring; Potential for drier summer
Increased extreme precipitation events
Warmer temperatures: Big impact in 2012. Warmer temps and reduced soil moisture killed cover crop; reduced yields.
Cropland is most affected by changes in precipitation: drought
extreme precipitation events
The Kucera property is less vulnerable to both drought and runoff than the local average because of the no‐till system and work done to date to improve soil quality and infiltration and reduce evaporation
Crops are each affected differently based on their biology—influenced by annual rainfall patterns
Short term: L owAnnual eathervariability has big influence, but ability to cope with some change
Long term: HigherProjections point to warm temps, lower soil moisture, and increased variability; geology doesn’t really support irrigation
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
Key Question: What management challenges or
opportunities might occur? Can current management meet
management goals? Do goals need to change?
Management Unit or Topic – From Step 1Management Objectives – From Step 1
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
Challenges to Meeting Management Objective with Climate Change – Things that will make it harder to achieve the management objective due to climate change.
**Focus on on-farm challenges (not global markets, changes to insurance programs, etc.)
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
Opportunities to Meeting Management Objective with Climate Change – Things that will make it easier to achieve the management objective due to climate change.
**Focus on on-farm challenges (not global markets, changes to insurance programs, etc.)
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
Feasibility – Can you meet your management objectives using current (busineass-as-usual) management actions?High: We can do it!
Opportunities > Challenges Low: We’ll need more resources or effort.
Challenges > Opportunities
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
Other Considerations – Social, financial, or other factors that also affect your ability to meet objectives.
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
Slow down!
Are you going to continue with these
management objectives?
Example – Kucera Farm
Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.
Management Objective
(from Step #1)
Challenges to Meeting Objective with Climate
Change Opportunities for Meeting
Objective with Climate Change
Feasibility under Current Management
Maintain or increase crop yields
Increasing variability of rainfall: probably too little or at the wrong time
Very extreme rainfall could cause crop damage
Increases in pests and diseases
This system allows site to take advantage of heavier rainfall, could increase recharge (as long as not too great)
Utilize high carbon‐nitrogen ratio cover crops following wheat harvest to increase the amount of residue cover during hot dry summer months
High
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.
Key Question: What actions can enhance the ability
of the project area to adapt to anticipated changes and meet management goals?
Resource: Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
Resource: Climate Change Assessments
Adaptation Workbook Process
Approach – Select from the menu. Pick any that seem to make sense and help address the challenges.
Tactic – Describe a specific action you can take.
These details should ideally answer what, where, and how you will implement the actions.
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.
Approaches Tactics
Timeframe – Specify when you will implement the tactic.
For example: • Summer 2016• Winter 2016-7• Within 3 years of…• After…
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.
Benefits – Describe why the tactic is good.
For example: • addresses biggest or multiple challenges• is cheap and easy• has co-benefits• is likely to succeed
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.
Drawbacks and Barriers – Describe why it’s not so good.
For example: • it may have negative side effects, • Requires high cost or effort• may not be successful• has social, financial, or other barriers
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.
Practicability – Is it both effective (will meet desired intent) and feasible (capable of being implemented)?
• High: Yes to both!
• Moderate: Yeah, but it will take some additional effort or planning…
• Low: No, the barriers/drawbacks seem too big or the benefits too small.
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.
Recommend Tactic– Given all this, is this tactic likely to be helpful?
Also consider: trade-offs, urgency, likelihood of success, cost, and effort…
Yes: look to integrate into plan, prescription, or other activities
No: not useful at this time
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.
Example – Kucera Farm
Step 4: IDENTIFY adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.
Adaptation Approach(es)
(from list) TacticTime
Frames Benefits Drawbacks & BarriersPracticability
of TacticRecommend
Tactic?
Maintain and restore soil health.
Use legume cover crops after wheat in years that are projected to have wetter conditions to retain soil moisture
Any Provides ground cover and forage for grazing animals Improves soil
food web Can provide
nitrogen Increase SOM Improves soil
properties
Getting sufficient soil water for germination
Can draw water from subsequent crops
More cost Curl mites and green
bridge for wheat‐streak mosaic disease might get worse
Moderate‐High
Yes
Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.
Key Question: How do we know if the selected
actions were effective? What can we learn from these
actions to inform future management?
Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.
Adaptation Monitoring Variable – What you will measure
Criteria for Evaluation – a value or threshold that is meaningful for assessing effectiveness or informing future decisions
Monitoring Implementation– How you will gather the information
Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.
Example – Kucera Farm
Monitoring Item Criteria for Evaluation Monitoring ImplementationCrop productivity (bushels per acre per year)
Similar or better yields over a 10‐year period
Continue current record‐keeping
Runoff after heavy storms, such as the degree of erosion or runoff after a 2‐inch or higher precipitation event
Times erosion or runoff is observed per season
Severity or extent of erosion and runoff in a specific location that tends to be especially susceptible
Gully or ephemeral gully erosion noted.
Need to record