Steps to Climate-Smart Agriculture for Wageningen
-
Upload
ccafs-cgiar-program-climate-change-agriculture-and-food-security -
Category
Education
-
view
580 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Steps to Climate-Smart Agriculture for Wageningen
Global Science Conference, Wageningen, Oct 2011
Steps to climate-smart
agriculture........
Bruce CampbellCCAFS
a) The global challengesb) Climate-smart agriculture
(CSA)c) Key steps to CSAd) Conclusions
Outline
1. A UNFCCC work program on agriculture
2. “Early Action” – building on proven technologies, practices and approaches
3. Major investments through “learning-by-doing”
4. Major realignment of research agendas
Challenge 1:Food security
Challenge 2: Adaptation
To 2090, taking 14 climate models
Four degree rise
Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS
>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain
Length of growing period (%)
Length of growing season is likely to decline..
Challenge 3: Reducing the ecological footprint
Rockström et al. (2009); Bennett et al. (in prep.)
Global freshwater
useChange in land
use
Biodiversity loss
Phosphorous cycle
Nitrogen cycle
Ocean acidification
Climate change
Safe operating
space
Current status
Role of Agricultur
e
b) Climate-
smart agricultu
re
Meridian Institute, 2011
Food Security
Adaptation
Mitigation
CSA is not business as usual?
Multiple benefitsAttention to synergies and
trade-offsNew partnershipsNew types of finance
11
c) Steps to Climate-Smart Agriculture
T1. A UNFCCC work program on agriculture
Potential topics (examples!)
• Safeguards for most vulnerable: female-headed households, food insecure, smallholder producers
• Methods for prioritising adaptation and/or mitigation options
• Methods to reward the adoption of CS agricultural practices
• Methods to measure, report and monitor (MRV) • Environmental co-benefits beyond GHG emissions
(e.g. Biodiversity, pollution of waterways)
2. “Early Action” –
building on proven
technologies, practices and approaches
• Conducting policy analysis• Strengthening/formulating
national policies• Developing national and
regional learning platforms• Designing incentive systems• Developing MRV systems• On-the-ground
implementationMeridian Institute, 2011
• “treeless” to treed - 5 million ha• 4.5 million people• National policy change• Support to groups and networks• Double yields in some places• Increased dry season fodder
Assisted (natural) regeneration of trees in the Sahelian drylands
Conservation agriculturein southern Africa
• Minimum tillage• Soil cover• Rotate crops• 180.000 farmers in 2010• 1 3 tonnes/ha maize
Weather advisories in the Sahelian drylands
Institutions to support safety nets to help
vulnerable populations deal with climate extremes (e.g. cash and in-kind transfers)
3. Major investments through “learning-by-doing” (action research)
Alternate wetting and drying
30% water
25-50% GHG
Yield not compromised
Other candidate examples• Index-based livestock insurance• Carbon finance as catalyst to .......
– facilitate grassland restoration and increased livestock productivity
– Agroforestry– ....
• Complementary water storage options
• Etc
4) Major realignment of
research agenda22
i) Decision support tools for understanding trade-offs and selecting development pathways and options
Select one of 6 climate models (or the average)
Select emissions scenario
Select location
24
Farms of the future
ISPC Science Forum 2011
Where can you find the future climate of site x today?
Sites in red have high similarity to site x in the rice growing season (June-September).
Current2020
Understanding agricultural transformations
2050
ii) Climate risk management
From satellite to cell phone?
Keny
a
Tanz
ania
Ugand
a
Ethi
opia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Male-headedFemale-headed
% of households
iii) Multi-benefit and integrated systems
population (millions)
295.1
1099.2
2674
480.3
Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World
Mixed systems produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World and the share will increase to over 60% by 2030
Agro-pastoralIntensive
Mixed-extensive
Mixed-intensive
iv) Pro-poor mitigation
Kasterine and Venzetti (2010)Keane et al. (2009)Edwards-Jones et al. (2009)
LambDairy
Production Transport
CO
2 p
er
ton
of
pro
du
cti
on
• Incentives and institutions
• Technologies• Life-cycle analyses
Conclusions
Steps to CSAGlobal Framework
Early Action Large-scale learning by doing
Research
SBSTA Work program on agriculture
Financial commitments in Cancun Agreement honored
Implementationof proven options•Conservation agriculture
•Assisted natural regeneration
• Weather advisories
•Institutions for safety nets
•……..
•Livestock risk insurance
•Alternate wetting and drying
•…………
•Ag-climate science products for decision support
• Transformational adaptation
•Integrated and multi-benefit systems
•Climate risk management
National Policy development
“Best bets”
www.ccafs.cgiar.org
Sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate
33