NORTH AFRICA TEAM

Assessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North Africa

AIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste, Italy, 3-15 June 2002

• Introduction…

•Where ?

•When ?

• How ?

National case studies in North Africa

Maro

ccoTunisia

Egypt

SETTAT Province

•Low and variable production

•Dry land agriculture

•Low precipitation

•High climate variability

•Drought damage

•High pop increase

CENTER REGION

• Low and variable production

• High pop increase

• Dry land agriculture

• Low precipitation

• High evaporation water deficit

• High RR var. (30mm, 215mm)

• Drough may occure in 1 year out of 3 or out of 4.

NILE DELTA

• High irrigated production

• Extreme urban water and land use conflicts

• Small holders

• Urban and land use water conflicts

• High pop increase

75% (arid, semi arid)87% (arid, semi arid)

95% (arid)

Rain PET R-PET215 1376 -1161

•Where ?

ة في ت��ونس أهمي��ة الزراع��ات المطرّي��1993 هك( 1000)

زراعة مطرّية/ المجموع

زراعةمطرّي

ة

زراعةسقوية

 

%97 1646

34 زراعة الحبو

93%ب 1835

130 األشجار

المثمرة

%28 42 108 الخضر

%92 285 23 مراعي

Cereals

FruitTrees

Rainfed agriculture

Over 80% of total water consumption used by agricuttural activities.

% rainfed from total

Country level: Crop responses of raiffed in Tunisia

Effect of irrigation Olive trees production

0

10

20

30

40Q

uin

tau

x/h

a

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Rdt irrigué Rdt totale

0100 000200 000300 000400 000500 000600 000700 000800 000900 000

1 000 000

االنتاج ) طن(تطور إنتاج الطماطم الفصلية

6000000

6020000

6040000

6060000

6080000

6100000

6120000

6140000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

Nb pieds Production Olives

Morocco Settat Province

Tunisia Center Region

Egypt Nil Delta

Integration

Assessment, I & V of CC in North Africa

Climate / Scenarios / vulnerability

Stakeholder engagement

Impact

Evaluation and adaptation

3 cases studies

Links with others AIACC projects results

0-24 month

4-20 month

18-30 month

30 month

6-12 month

WHEN ?

Driving forces(Socio-economics)

Current Food SecurityMap, GIS, Indicators RF

Crop – Climate –ImpactsDSSAT

Id. Adaptation OptionsST analysis

Evaluate OptionsDSSAT, MCA

Future Food SecurityMap, GIS, CC, Adapt

RF RFS.H.

s. Ag

Other ag.(water supp.)

Stakeholders(Workshop?)

CC Scenarios(downscaling)

How ?

STsAg.

Other ag.(water supp.)

Stakeholders(Workshop?)

S.H. Example for Tunisia

Small Farmers (80%)

Regional Policy makers (CRDA)

Final report (results)

Morocco Egypt Algeria Libya Mauritania + Other AIACC projects.

Central Policy maker

(Ministry of agriculture)

Technical Policy makers

DGPA, UTAP, DGRE

National commissions

Extension service

Dec

isio

ns Project

Water resources management

- Changing system of water delivery and control

- Provide farmers with guidance on crop water management

- Provide incentives to avoid excessive water use- Water mobilization- Use of new water resources (Waste water, geothermal water, saline water, drainage water…)- Increasing water use efficiency- Etc………………

Adaptation policies I

Agriculture management

- Crop liberalization (Egypt)- Selection of cultivars(Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)- Planting date (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)- Soil mulch- Inter-cropping (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco)- Increasing of agriculture area (Tunisia and Morocco)- Use of new techniques - etc…………………

Adaptation policies II

Adaptation policies III

Agricultural Trade: Morocco

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000To

tal v

alue

at b

ase

yr (m

illio

n$)

Imports

Exports

Trade BalanceTrade Imbalance

Trading

- Trading intra country

-Trading inter regions

- International trade

Linking Stakeholders-Adaptation-Scenarios-Vulnerability:• Matrix on current and future risk of adverse effects of

climate• Mapped index derived form a matrix that includes

climate change, impacts, and adaptive capacity

North Africa AIACC Project Outcomes

What components of the farming system are particularly vulnerable, and may thus require special attention? – CROP MODELS (e.g., DSSAT)

Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress of changes in water supply/demand? – IRRIGATION MODELS (e.g., CROPWAT)

Will climate significantly affect national agriculture? – MODEL INTEGRATION; GIS INTEGRATION (e.g., DERIVING RESPONSE FUNCTIONS)

MODELS: Defining key questions

We have to be very careful with using model in our region because of the high variability (climate, soil, farmers behaviors…)