EM1 Vulnerability Adaptation

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    Vulnerability and adaptation:

    An Introduction

    Manuel Winograd (CIAT, Colombia)

    Module I: An Introduction

    In collaboration with:

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    Presentation Outline

    1. Why assess vulnerability and adaptation?

    2. How to define vulnerability and adaptation

    3. What are the key elements of an assessment?

    4. How to move from vulnerability to adaptation

    5. How to choose the framework and methods?

    6. How to choose the appropriate tools?

    7. Practical implications

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    To identify the extent and location of short-term and long-termthreats

    To respond to the impacts of natural disasters and climatechange

    To improve early warning systems and climate change

    adaptation measures To understand the underlying vulnerability and the adaptive

    capacity

    To assist in the identification and prioritization of current andfuture adaptation needs

    To guide and support appropriate response measures

    1. Why assess vulnerability and adaptation?

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    2. How to define vulnerability and adaptation?

    There are a number of different ways to define, interpret anduse the terms vulnerability and adaptation. Thesedifferences have social, political, economic and environmental

    implications.

    Vulnerability

    The degree to which a system is susceptible to (or incapableof) dealing with the negative impacts of climate change(including climate variability and extreme events).

    Adaptation

    Adjustment of a system to respond to new conditions orchanges in its environment.

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    Prior to beginning an assessment, one should take into

    consideration the following:

    Needs and concerns of the clients and users

    Temporal and spatial dimensions of the assessment Social and political importance of the assessment

    Scales, resources, issues and target sectors

    Needs of the actors and partners Resources (human and financial) available

    Need to produce information relevant for decision-making

    3. What are the key elements of an assessment?

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    Technical and scientific community Decision-makers

    Problems = Greenhouse effect, Problems = Budget, povertycontamination

    Focus = Climate science Focus = Prioritization of issues

    Methods = GCM scenarios, etc.. Methods = Development aid strategies.

    Perspective = Top-down Perspective = Bottom-up

    Vulnerability = Climate impacts Vulnerability = Current and future

    Adaptation = Future Adaptation = Current

    Goal = Adaptation measures Goal = Policies and actions

    Assessment = Global, regional Assessment = National, local, projects

    Source: World Bank, 2004 (ESSD Week, 2003).

    Example:

    Asymmetry in the needs/concerns of scientists/decision-makers

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    Data

    Data

    In reality, a lot of data isproduced but only a smallamount of information is

    used to actually makedecisions.

    In theory, it is necessary touse a lot of data to producea little information that will

    be pertinent to decision-making.

    To change this reality, one must transform data into information andinformation into concrete actions.

    Example:The theory and reality of using information

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    4. How to move from vulnerability to adaptation?In theory

    Vulnerability Assessment Adaptation Assessment

    Risks

    Conditions

    FutureVulnerability

    Options

    Strategies &Priorities

    Adaptation

    Target Area

    Vulnerability

    Monitoring

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    Assessment, policies, strategic planning, and implementation cycle

    Strate

    gic

    Plan

    ning A Ada

    ptiv

    e

    Ca

    pacity

    P

    roject

    Form

    ulation

    A

    Imp

    leme

    ntatio

    nVDe

    velo

    pment

    policie

    s

    V

    Awaren

    ess

    Conditio

    ns

    andrisks

    Assessment

    Monitoring

    4. How to move from vulnerability to adaptation?In practice

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    Crop diversification Insurance Housing design

    Early warning Building codes Infrastructure

    Anticipatory

    Disaster relief Rehabilitation Relocation incentives

    Agricultural development Reconstruction Relocation of activities

    Changes in ecosystemcomposition and location

    Species migration

    Reactive

    Source: Smith, 2001 www.ipcc.ch/present/COP65/barriysmit.ppt

    Naturalsystems

    Human

    systems

    Public

    Private

    4. How to move from vulnerability to adaptation?

    Definition of adaptive measures

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    5. How to choose the framework and methods?

    Elements to consider:

    Identification of problems and issues, awareness raising,improving the level of knowledge and policy development

    Strategic planning, objective setting, programme developmentand implementation of projects

    Implementation, monitoring and evaluation of projects,programmes, and policies

    International, regional and national context, specifically theinterplay of conventions, agreements and processes at these

    different levels (e.g. UNFCCC, IPCC, NAPA, UNFCCC NationalCommunications, etc.)

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    Global

    Local

    National

    Countries

    Livelihoods:Basic needs,

    sustainable activities, andgoods and services

    Communities Households

    Target groups

    Climate Change

    NAPA(LDCs)

    IPCC

    APF

    InternationalConventions

    (CCD, CBD,UNFCCC)

    Resources/Sectors:

    Agriculture, WaterForests, Health,Infrastructure

    Impacts

    Biophysical and

    socio-economic

    Measures&

    projects

    Politicalstrategies

    Scientific assessment

    Different levels and needs of an assessment

    ProjectsImpac

    ts

    Impacts

    Impacts

    Urgent and immediate needs

    Scientificperspective

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    Source: www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica

    Glob

    al

    Climate Variability

    Climate Change

    Example: Use of reference methods according to differentlevels

    Regional and global scientific

    assessments

    Climate variability

    Climate change

    Example: Use of reference methods according to different

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    National and regionalscientific assessments

    Bio-physical impacts

    Socio-economic impacts

    Example: Use of reference methods according to differentlevels

    Global

    Climate Variability

    Climate Change

    Bio-physical andsocio-economic

    Impacts

    Source: www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica

    Hydric stress and lack of freshwaterby 2025

    Lack

    Stress

    Example: Use of reference methods according to different

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    Global

    National

    Climate Variability

    Climate Change

    Resources/Sectors:Agriculture, Water, Biodiversity,

    Health, Infrastructure

    Bio-physical andsocio-economic

    Impacts

    Source: www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica

    Example: Use of reference methods according to differentlevels National and regional policies

    and strategies

    Sectoral impacts (water andagriculture) of climate variability

    Climate impacts on resources(biodiversity)

    E l U f f th d di diff t l l

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    Global

    Loca

    l

    National

    Livelihoods:

    Basic needs,sustainable activities,goods and services

    Climate Variability

    Climate Change

    Resources/Sectors:Agriculture, Water, Biodiversity,

    Health, Infrastructure

    Bio-physical andsocio-economic

    Impacts

    Source: www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica

    Example: Use of reference methods according different levels

    Local and national measures

    Impacts of climate variability onlivelihoods

    Impacts of climate change onlivelihoods

    Food insecurity in Uganda, 2003

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    6. How to choose the appropriate tools?

    Tools selection must be a function of the desired level of analysis:

    Resources Scale Decision levels

    Global International Agreements

    Ecosystem Regional Agreements

    Watershed Governments

    Landscape Communities

    Farm Families

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    Macro-scale/level A set of relationships characterizing the society-environment interactions that

    have similar structures and problems

    Scenario analysis to assess and explore the potential impacts of variousadaptation strategies

    Multi-criteria analysis to compare adaptation options using monetary or non-monetary values

    Micro-scale/level Livelihood indicators to identify and analyze the typologies and characteristics

    of the most vulnerable groups

    Multi-agent sim