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  • NORTH AFRICA TEAMAssessment of impact, adaptation and vulnerability in North AfricaAIACC Project: Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation, Trieste, Italy, 3-15 June 2002 IntroductionWhere ?When ? How ?

  • National case studies in North AfricaMaroccoTunisiaEgyptSETTAT ProvinceLow and variable productionDry land agricultureLow precipitationHigh climate variabilityDrought damageHigh pop increaseCENTER REGIONLow and variable production High pop increase Dry land agricultureLow precipitation High evaporation water deficitHigh RR var. (30mm, 215mm)Drough may occure in 1 year out of 3 or out of 4.NILE DELTAHigh irrigated productionExtreme urban water and land use conflictsSmall holders Urban and land use water conflictsHigh pop increase75% (arid, semi arid)87% (arid, semi arid)95% (arid)Where ?

    Pluie

    station de Sfax

    Annes en %

    Trs pluvieuses17

    Pluvieuses12

    Normales28

    Sches28

    Trs sches15

    Le climat de Sfax (Abderrahman Bousnina, 1997)

    Le coefficient de variation dpasse 45% pour la pluviomtrie annuelle et il est considr comme tant parmi les plus forts pour la Tunisie

    Total mensuel moyen (1966/1980)

    JanvierFvrierMarsAvrilMaiJuinJuilletAotSeptembreOctobreNovembreDcembreTotal annuel

    78888985133101492518274189662021418278137821182091897857163488

    Bilan hydrique agroclimatique

    Moyennes annuelles:

    Pluie:1901/1980

    ETP:1962/1982

    RainPETR-PET

    2151376-1161

    Pluie

    17

    12

    28

    28

    15

    Annes en %

    Trs pluvieuses17%

    Feuil2

    Station de Sfax

    Rayonement global

    Total mensuel moyen

    JanvierFvrierMarsAvrilMaiJuinJuilletAotSeptembreOctobreNovembreDcembre

    78888985133101492518274189662021418278137821182091897857

    Feuil3

  • (1000 ) 1993CerealsFruitTreesRainfed agricultureOver 80% of total water consumption used by agricuttural activities.% rainfed from total

  • Country level: Crop responses of raiffed in TunisiaEffect of irrigationOlive trees production

    Chart2

    16.66666666676

    266

    24.974358974412

    35.387096774216

    26.131149281915

    34.432571428612

    30.50108822399

    26.910857853311

    38.18579744315

    29.530514195513

    33.991014607216

    37.476772061214

    Rdt irrigu

    Rdt totale

    Quintaux/ha

    FichierOriginal

    EVOLUTION DES CULTURES CEREALIERES

    DANS LE GOUVERNORAT DE SFAX

    DESIGNATION19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999MOY VIII PLANMOY IX PLANMOY 20 ANS

    BLE DUR

    SUP EMB (1000 HA)11452613361818314758127027021411512

    SUP REC (1000HA)1135258367171975812602601110410

    PRODUCT (1000QX)155970177453911929263250242214131641135

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)14231202014544358012623

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)1423221212454447833634

    BLE TENDRE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)140541034010642220603213

    SUP REC (1000HA)1204310140954222062213

    PRODUCT (1000QX)321128741110341919786149514213

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)31227033354433902624

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)3133713445443591625

    ORGE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)13261363376725441653432722272915701031271430

    SUP REC (1000HA)12231360286611412463726222721156725251126

    PRODUCT (1000QX)2893401781102971194311017617089101903539227016431111

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)24333402024644339022624

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)24334512225744441030734

    TRITICALE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)

    SUP REC (1000HA)

    PRODUCT (1000QX)

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)

    TOTAL

    SUP EMB (1000HA)154418945411346661977563632413828901348402045

    SUP REC (1000HA)1438188939112196236449353241291870838381539

    PRODUCT (1000QX)3215050260135445171444163224215128159120680202310624343159

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)23333402024644339022624

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)2433341213564445933634

    EVOLUTION DES CULTURES CEREALIERES

    DANS LE GOUVERNORAT DE KAIROUAN

    DESIGNATION19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999MOY VIII PLANMOY IX PLANMOY 20 ANS

    BLE DUR

    SUP EMB (1000 HA)4946618574864573286871779493894091528980827370

    SUP REC (1000HA)4737558366856723266370899111889172958583550

    PRODUCT (1000QX)1351832403943117956354368193970123911006351422371400322448700703490506

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)344549172314161272615659977

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)3545591182371518127132816191612121410

    BLE TENDRE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)46111461241751516181815891189612811

    SUP REC (1000HA)45101461221619141717152211234938

    PRODUCT (1000QX)1538788426124281551670288370213150354220546707412963106

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)46764107935182112104518681311810

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)488641014101682122131018281922233142013

    ORGE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)4664838461944497309299736665595377307255645267

    SUP REC (1000HA)42366875549258333987676263747581643422347

    PRODUCT (1000QX)22412727436026489149444511951205100267061593931215121145400537222422

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)523449152212141092216427846

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)544551010517514151110132516149013109

    TRITICALE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)0

    SUP REC (1000HA)

    PRODUCT (1000QX)

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)

    TOTAL

    SUP EMB (1000HA)99116155183141192931876317518616817817315610218090170140158133147

    SUP REC (1000HA)9378133172126189131717741641541681692014175274810610960105

    PRODUCT (1000QX)3743485928386011810140114213545824632611198314002703722819489663117313697751034

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)434549262313161182416548967

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)44455101171961517128142716181411131310

    EVOLUTION DES CULTURES CEREALIERES

    DANS LE GOUVERNORAT DE KASSERINE

    DESIGNATION19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999MOY VIII PLANMOY IX PLANMOY 20 ANS

    BLE DUR

    SUP EMB (1000 HA)123109791028096937053698391871028089110757698948388

    SUP REC (1000HA)113496648508333671156891758692106103549563153

    PRODUCT (1000QX)3572272884820796433329634476960710495258109137168310466171339

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)32403100500611850010023524

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)35414121562711963410456866

    BLE TENDRE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)1221001002310101

    SUP REC (1000HA)1211000221100

    PRODUCT (1000QX)9922541119158804

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)9512110580706

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)9522108998

    ORGE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)6861645970867574658260555574606471598477657368

    SUP REC (1000HA)643948325468227011548545167516734645383140

    PRODUCT (1000QX)435179176372276462843693738475341040025764121339274297211273

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)633138060061475009044534

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)754141016928148651510870877

    TRITICALE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)

    SUP REC (1000HA)

    PRODUCT (1000QX)

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)

    TOTAL

    SUP EMB (1000HA)192172143163151182168144119151143146144179140153182133161175160156157

    SUP REC (1000HA)178901148110515155137230116145128155142174138194956293

    PRODUCT (1000QX)801415464874361615617691672860171311399105015174058506584771383616

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)4231390500612850010033524

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)55414111682712964710566867

    EVOLUTION DES CULTURES CEREALIERES

    DANS LE GOUVERNORAT DE SIDI BOUZID

    DESIGNATION19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999MOY VIII PLANMOY IX PLANMOY 20 ANS

    BLE DUR

    SUP EMB (1000 HA)5933511640642557886406358684627121103330642449

    SUP REC (1000HA)56265862460254321406044541971218723491236

    PRODUCT (1000QX)88791615470264152524489606765330425791121508160168237491188273

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)123124146115126624121758886

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)233234851541513884161221261010158

    BLE TENDRE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)31091019161106121394112003816

    SUP REC (1000HA)31056181703612107201202615

    PRODUCT (1000QX)310169110534199813883504211021650635

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)11216561116126612101105656

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)1132655316128721810222877

    ORGE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)3323254306115429462928385531136031820391431

    SUP REC (1000HA)281923923581412172828324614359221631723

    PRODUCT (1000QX)4836371613191315419881992722083657948594374215725979141

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)12212514227105734101228765

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)2222361341057107861610182008126

    TRITICALE

    SUP EMB (1000HA)

    SUP REC (1000HA)

    PRODUCT (1000QX)

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)

    TOTAL

    SUP EMB (1000HA)955771798014441105181427510310913281411921351531113986

    SUP REC (1000HA)874671305313641025417410086107351019210942862064

    PRODUCT (1000QX)13911619241140693334406418690311756218401621622212199210410799273448

    RDT/SE (QX/HA)123125144112116624121548775

    RDT/SR (QX/HA)23323584135121278516122124109147

    Toutes crales

    Toutes crales confondues pour tout le pays

    suprficiePdt irriguePdt totale%Rdt irriguRdt totale

    198827000450000289900015.522593997916.66666666676

    198935000910000635600014.3171806167266

    199039000974000163300005.964482547524.974358974412

    1991310001097000255110004.300105836735.387096774216

    199237667984282219500004.484200455626.131149281915

    1993350001205140191390006.296776216134.432571428612

    1994514601569586654300023.988781904330.50108822399

    1995482601298718619800020.953823814126.910857853311

    1996568632171359286720007.573099190838.18579744315

    19977347421697251053900020.587579466729.530514195513

    19986332521524811664900012.928590305733.991014607216

    19997049726420001812600014.57574754537.476772061214

    Toutes crales

    16.66666666676

    266

    24.974358974412

    35.387096774216

    26.131149281915

    34.432571428612

    30.50108822399

    26.910857853311

    38.18579744315

    29.530514195513

    33.991014607216

    37.476772061214

    Rdt irrigu

    Rdt totale

    Quintaux/ha

    GouvSfaxCrales

    Gouvernorats:Sfax, Kai