Impact on Public Health of Reducing

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban Land Transport

Based on : Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: urban

land transport. Woodcock J, Edwards P, Tonne C. et al. The Lancet: Published Online November 25, 2009DOI:10.1016/S0140-

6736(09)61714-1

Pathways modelled

Methods

• Models linking transport scenarios to health outcomes– Physical activity & Air pollution• Comparative Risk Assessment• Conditions in Global Burden of Disease Study

– Injuries• Direct modelling of impact of changes in traffic &

pedestrian volume

London: Alternative scenarios

Change in disease burden Change in premature deaths

Ischaemic heart disease

10-19% 1950-4240

Cerebrovascular disease 10-18% 1190-2580

Dementia 7-8% 200-240

Breast cancer 12-13% 200-210

Road traffic crashes 19-39% 50-80

London: Health impacts by cause

Delhi: Alternative scenarios

Change in disease burden Change in premature deaths

Ischaemic heart disease

11-25% 2490-7140

Cerebrovascular disease

11-25% 1270-3650

Road traffic crashes 27-69% 1170-2990

Diabetes 6-17% 180-460

Depression 2-7% NA

Delhi: Health impacts by cause

Few cyclists: high danger but few casualties

More cyclists: less danger but more casualties?

Many cyclists: low danger and few casualties

Policy implications

• Plan to increase walking & cycling and reduce car use

– Reallocating space from the car

Policy implications

• Plan to increase walking & cycling and reduce car use

– Reallocating space from the car

– Reducing volume & speed of motor traffic

Policy implications

• Plan to increase walking & cycling and reduce car use

– Reallocating space from the car

– Reducing volume & speed of motor traffic

– Providing direct, safe, and pleasant routes for walking & cycling

Conclusions• Replacing motor vehicle trips with walking or cycling

is a win win in both developed & developing countries

• Right to direct, pleasant and safe routes for pedestrians and cyclists

• Restrict motor vehicle use:– speed, parking & road space

CollaboratorsLSHTM• James Woodcock• Phil Edwards• Cathryn Tonne• Ben Armstrong• Zaid Chalabi• Andy Haines• Ian Roberts

Health Effects Institute• Aaron Cohen

Institute of Technology, New Delhi• Dinesh Mohan• Geetam Tiwari

King’s College•Sean Beevers

Takedo International •Olu Ashiru

University of Auckland•Alistair Woodward•Graeme Lindsay

University of Oxford•David Banister•Robin Hickman

University of Warwick•Oscar H. Franco

University of San Diego •Zohir Chowdhury