Hasan T Karaoglu

Epidemics in Blogspace

IntroductionBlogs are different!Methods are different!Contents are different!Some methods on Some Content of Some

BlogsDiscussion

Outline

Blogs are a popular way to share personal journals, discuss matters of public opinion, have collaborative conversations,aggregate content on similar topics.

Blogs also disseminatenew content novel ideas

How does content spread across, what kinds of content spreads, and at what rate?

Introduction

Epidemics : one way of modeling these aspects

Physics of Information DiffusionDisease Propagation Model

SusceptibleInfectedRecoveredMutation?

Threshold Model for Social Networks

Introduction - Epidemics

Youtube, Flickr (Content Sharing )AmazonCNN, MSNBC (Web)Linkedln (Professional Networking)Orkut, Facebook, Yonja (Social Networking)Twitter (?)Blogger, Blogspot, LiveJournal, Slashdot

(Blogspace)

Blogs are different

Blogs are different

High level of reciprocitySymmetric indegree – outdegreeIn contrast to Web (high authority sites)

Blogs are different

Blogs are different

Average Path Length is very short in compared to Web.(Directionality ?)

Blogs are differentJoint Degree Distribution

(High Degree Nodes Connect to

Other High Degree Nodes)

Epidemics on Network Core?

Youtube Celebrities?

Blogs are different

Strongly Connected Core Analysis

• Slowly Increasing Shortest Path

•High Clustering

Blogs are different

Strong Local Clustering(people tend to be introduced to other

people via mutual friends)

EpidemicsGossipInfluence Map (Word of Mouth)Recommendation Based Web (Data) MiningMathematical Modeling (Markov Chains,

Information Theory, …)…

Methods are different

Contents are differentRecommendationNews (Political, Fun,

Paparazzi)GossipMedia (Music, News,

Excerpts)

Infection Inference technique introduced by Adamic et al.Link inferenceLink classificationClassifier training Problems and Challenges

Some methods on Some Content of Some Blogs

Some methods on Some Content of Some BlogsPattern Used for Classifier Training

The number of common blogs explicitly linked to by both blogs (indicating whether two blogs are in the same community)

The number of non-blog links (i.e. URLs) shared by the two

Text similarityOrder and frequency of repeated infections.Specifically, the number of times one blog mentions

a URL before the other and the number of timesThey both mention the URL on the same day. In-link and out-link counts for the two blogs

Some methods on Some Content of Some BlogsText Similarity

s(A,B) = nAB / √nA / √nB

Some methods on Some Content of Some BlogsTiming of Infection

Some methods on Some Content of Some Blogs

Link Inference Blog URL and Text Similarity PatternsThree-way Classifier (57%)

reciprocated links, one way links, unlinked pairs

Two-way Classifier (SVM 91.2% Logistic Regression 91.9%) linkedunlinked pairs

Infection Inference nA-before-B /nA, nA-after-B /nA, nA-same-day-B /nA Timing Patterns (75%)with all 6 timing patterns and text/blog similarity patterns

(61 – 75%)link-in / link-out counts

Some methods on Some Content of Some Blogs

Visualization Heuristics using classifiersTwo types of graph

Directed Acyclic GraphMost likely tree

Some methods on Some Content of Some Blogs

Epidemic Propagation Model by Gruhl et al.TopicsIndividuals

TopicsTopic = Chatter + Spike + (Resonance)

Some methods on Some Content of Some Blogs

Epidemic Propagation Model by Gruhl et al.TopicsIndividuals

TopicsTopic = Chatter + Spike + (Resonance)

Some methods on Some Content of Some Blogs

Some methods on Some Content of Some Blogs

aoccdrnig to rscheearch at an elingsh uinervtisy it deosn’t mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer is at the rghit pclae

Some methods on Some Content of Some Blogs

Power-law Characteristic for Individuals

Different Posting Behaviors for Individuals

Some methods on Some Content of Some BlogsPropagation Model

Cascading ModelCopy Probability κ(v,w)Noticing Probability r(v,w)

For 7K topics, r mean 0.28 and std 0.22,κ quite low, mean 0.04 and std 0.07,Even bloggers who commonly read from

another source are selective in the topics they choose to write about.

Could we use these models to extract further pattern or characteristics ?Classification of Hoax, Fake News ?Prediction of Popular songs, videos at their

inception…..

Discussion

Thanks!

Q & A

D. W. Drezner, and H. Farrell, “Web of Influence,” Foreign Policy, vol. 145, pp. 32-40, Dec. 2004

E. Adar and L. A. Adamic, “Tracking Information Epidemics in Blogspace,” Proceedings of the 2005 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence, pp. 207–214, 2005.

D. Gruhl, R. Guha, D. Liben-Nowell, and A. Tomkins, “Information diffusion through blogspace,” Proceedings of the 13th international conference on World Wide Web, pp. 491-501,2004.

A. Mislove, M. Marcon, K. P. Gummadi, P. Druschel, and B. Bhattacharjee, “Measurement and Analysis of Online Social Networks,” Proceedings of the 7th ACM SIGCOMM conference on Internet measurement, pp. 29-42, 2007

M. Cha, J. A. N. Perez, and H. Haddadi, "Flash Floods and Ripples: The Spread of Media Content through the Blogosphere", 3rd Int'l AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM) Data Challenge Workshop, May 17 - 20, 2009, San Jose, CaliforniaM. Young, The Technical Writer's Handbook. Mill Valley, CA: University Science, 1989.

Z. Fanzi, Q. Zhengding, L. Dongsheng, and Y. Jianhai, “Shape-based time series similarity measure and pattern discovery algorithm”, Journal of Electronics, vol. 22, pp. 142-148, Aug. 2007

References