Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004...

Atmospheric Technology Division

Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting

Toulouse, June 2004

The International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) -- Two years Later

Expected Outcomes, Pleasant Surprises and Future Challenges

David Parsons and Tammy WeckwerthNCAR/ATD

Boulder, COUSA

Toulouse, June 2004

Motivation

Toulouse, June 2004

Motivation• Floods, especially flash floods, cause more deaths each year than tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning and wind

storms

• Significant property losses due to flash floods and they are the highest percentage of federal aid events. (Recently >$8 billion per year and rising).

• Warnings are difficult: often night time events, public perception of precipitation events, dependent on hydrology and meteorology, and increases in skill will help (current warnings often < 1h).

• The problem of poor forecasts of flash floods and warm season convective is a problem that is international in scope.

• It has been argued that improvements in QPF for non-flood situations will have significant economic and social benefit.

• IHOP_2002 research will benefit other warm season warning and prediction problems

Toulouse, June 2004

Goals of IHOP_2002• Improved understanding and prediction of

warm season rainfall (0 –12 h forecast)

• Improved characterization of the time varying 3-D distribution of water vapor

• Four overlapping research components– Convective initiation– Quantitative precipitation forecasting– Atmospheric Boundary Layer– Instrumentation (optimal mix)

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Isentropic Airflow and Sounding Domain

Isentropic streamlines (37 C) for 2330 UTC

4 May 1961. The dashed lines are isobars at 100 hPa

intervals (from Carlson and Ludlam

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IHOP Summary: 13 May to 25 June

• >200 Technical participants from France, the US, Germany and Canada

• ~2500 additional soundings

• > 50 instrument platforms, 6 aircraft, 45 IOPs

• 268 h of airborne water vapor lidar measurements

• 76 h of airborne satellite evaluation measurements (S-HIS and NAST)

• Dedicated GOES-11 data

Toulouse, June 2004

Convective Initiation – Expected Outcomes

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Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies

Expected Outcomes

Toulouse, June 2004

QPF – Expected Outcomes

IHOP Research Forecast Models

(courtesy of Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL)

Toulouse, June 2004

Instrumentation (Optimal Mix)Expected Outcomes

Toulouse, June 2004

Instrumentation (Optimal Mix)Expected Outcomes

Toulouse, June 2004

Some Pleasant Surprises

• BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!

Toulouse, June 2004

Some Pleasant Surprises

• BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!

Toulouse, June 2004

One Example of Several Pleasant Instrumentation Surprises --- Refractivity

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Some Pleasant SurprisesUse of Data Set for Diverse and

Unexpected ApplicationsU wind for LLJ

anomaly from the diurnal mean

ClimateModel

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CAM3 Diurnal Composite (SGP, IHOP period)

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Some Successes Over the Past Year

• Rapid movement toward collaborative work, sometimes stretching well beyond the expected boundaries

• Rapid movement toward a mix of case studies and climatologies

• Healthy mix of observations and modeling work

Toulouse, June 2004

Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success?

• Publications are one measure of success

– Some refereed publications are starting to appear

– Strong showing in conference literature

– Special issue in Monthly Weather Review

Toulouse, June 2004

Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success?

• Impact on operational forecasting will be another measure utilized

– Prediction #1 – Radar refractivity will become operational in large part due to IHOP_2002

– Operational interest and eventual operational impact of reference radiosonde results

– Prediction #2 – Strong (possibly under appreciated) impact on operations through new conceptual model and increased knowledge of how to model convection

Toulouse, June 2004

Impact on operational forecasting will be another

measure utilized• Potential to contribute to big picture

questions facing NWP

– Increase and improve utilization of satellite data sets over land

– Improved treatment of land surface processes

– Improved assimilation of water (cloud, vapor and precipitation)

• Propose a meeting Thursday at lunch to discuss the long awaited assimilation workshop

Toulouse, June 2004

Impact on operational forecasting will be another

measure utilized

Email Tammy Weckwerth if you have ideas on other contributions of IHOP_2002 to prediction of warm season convection

Appreciate thoughts from PIs on how IHOP_2002 will address the other two big picture issues and how transfers to operations will occur

Toulouse, June 2004

Prospective on Future Experiments

• IHOP_2002

– Regional-scale meridional gradient in mixing ratio, soil moisture and vegetation

– High CAPE but strong CIN (the original conditionally unstable environment)

– “Relatively” low impact of transient synoptic disturbances

– Strong terrain impact to the west of the experimental domain

– Large systems are nocturnal

Toulouse, June 2004

• CSIP

– Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and vegetation

– Lower CAPE but less CIN

– Stronger impact of transient synoptic disturbances

– Modest terrain impacts within the experimental domain

– Lack of “continental” propagation of large convective systems

Toulouse, June 2004

• German QPF experiment

– Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and vegetation

– Lower CAPE but less CIN

– Large terrain impacts within the experimental domain so that terrain may control convective systems

– Strong impact of transient synoptic disturbances

Toulouse, June 2004

THORPEX

The THORPEX slides on the European flood are courtesy of Melvyn Shapiro, Co-chair, THORPEX International Science Steering Committee

11stst Example: Central European Flood Example: Central European Floodss

August 2002

Prague

Dundee Satellite Station: 1241 UTC 11 Aug. 2002Dundee Satellite Station: 1241 UTC 11 Aug. 2002

France

The StormThe Storm

Dresden GermanyDresden Germany

Central European FloodsCentral European Floods

Japan Japan Austria Austria

11 Aug.

1 Aug. Cyclogenesis off Japan

Courtesy of Shapiro and Thorpe

1 21 2

5 6 74

22ndnd Example: Minnesota Flood: 9-11 Example: Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002June 2002

Moderate drought on 1 June

Widespreadrainfall in excess of 5 inches.

Flood with >$340 million in federal disaster aid.

80% of homes and businesses damaged in Roseau, MN

Locally most significant flood on record.

Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002

Convection along Mei-Yu Front

Wisc. flood, previouswave packet ?

1st Downstream Cyclogenesis

2nd Downstreamcyclogenesis

Mn floodfrom frontaloverrunning

Toulouse, June 2004

Thank for your attention and

for your hard work on IHOP_2002

Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004...

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