Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004...
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Transcript of Atmospheric Technology Division Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting Toulouse, June 2004...
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
The International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) -- Two years Later
Expected Outcomes, Pleasant Surprises and Future Challenges
David Parsons and Tammy WeckwerthNCAR/ATD
Boulder, COUSA
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Motivation
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Motivation• Floods, especially flash floods, cause more deaths each year than tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning and wind
storms
• Significant property losses due to flash floods and they are the highest percentage of federal aid events. (Recently >$8 billion per year and rising).
• Warnings are difficult: often night time events, public perception of precipitation events, dependent on hydrology and meteorology, and increases in skill will help (current warnings often < 1h).
• The problem of poor forecasts of flash floods and warm season convective is a problem that is international in scope.
• It has been argued that improvements in QPF for non-flood situations will have significant economic and social benefit.
• IHOP_2002 research will benefit other warm season warning and prediction problems
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Goals of IHOP_2002• Improved understanding and prediction of
warm season rainfall (0 –12 h forecast)
• Improved characterization of the time varying 3-D distribution of water vapor
• Four overlapping research components– Convective initiation– Quantitative precipitation forecasting– Atmospheric Boundary Layer– Instrumentation (optimal mix)
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Isentropic Airflow and Sounding Domain
Isentropic streamlines (37 C) for 2330 UTC
4 May 1961. The dashed lines are isobars at 100 hPa
intervals (from Carlson and Ludlam
1968)
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
IHOP Summary: 13 May to 25 June
• >200 Technical participants from France, the US, Germany and Canada
• ~2500 additional soundings
• > 50 instrument platforms, 6 aircraft, 45 IOPs
• 268 h of airborne water vapor lidar measurements
• 76 h of airborne satellite evaluation measurements (S-HIS and NAST)
• Dedicated GOES-11 data
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Convective Initiation – Expected Outcomes
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies
Expected Outcomes
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
QPF – Expected Outcomes
IHOP Research Forecast Models
(courtesy of Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL)
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Instrumentation (Optimal Mix)Expected Outcomes
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Instrumentation (Optimal Mix)Expected Outcomes
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Some Pleasant Surprises
• BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Some Pleasant Surprises
• BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
One Example of Several Pleasant Instrumentation Surprises --- Refractivity
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Some Pleasant SurprisesUse of Data Set for Diverse and
Unexpected ApplicationsU wind for LLJ
anomaly from the diurnal mean
Obs
ClimateModel
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
CAM3 Diurnal Composite (SGP, IHOP period)
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Some Successes Over the Past Year
• Rapid movement toward collaborative work, sometimes stretching well beyond the expected boundaries
• Rapid movement toward a mix of case studies and climatologies
• Healthy mix of observations and modeling work
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success?
• Publications are one measure of success
– Some refereed publications are starting to appear
– Strong showing in conference literature
– Special issue in Monthly Weather Review
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success?
• Impact on operational forecasting will be another measure utilized
– Prediction #1 – Radar refractivity will become operational in large part due to IHOP_2002
– Operational interest and eventual operational impact of reference radiosonde results
– Prediction #2 – Strong (possibly under appreciated) impact on operations through new conceptual model and increased knowledge of how to model convection
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Impact on operational forecasting will be another
measure utilized• Potential to contribute to big picture
questions facing NWP
– Increase and improve utilization of satellite data sets over land
– Improved treatment of land surface processes
– Improved assimilation of water (cloud, vapor and precipitation)
• Propose a meeting Thursday at lunch to discuss the long awaited assimilation workshop
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Impact on operational forecasting will be another
measure utilized
Email Tammy Weckwerth if you have ideas on other contributions of IHOP_2002 to prediction of warm season convection
Appreciate thoughts from PIs on how IHOP_2002 will address the other two big picture issues and how transfers to operations will occur
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Prospective on Future Experiments
• IHOP_2002
– Regional-scale meridional gradient in mixing ratio, soil moisture and vegetation
– High CAPE but strong CIN (the original conditionally unstable environment)
– “Relatively” low impact of transient synoptic disturbances
– Strong terrain impact to the west of the experimental domain
– Large systems are nocturnal
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Prospective on Future Experiments
• CSIP
– Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and vegetation
– Lower CAPE but less CIN
– Stronger impact of transient synoptic disturbances
– Modest terrain impacts within the experimental domain
– Lack of “continental” propagation of large convective systems
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Prospective on Future Experiments
• German QPF experiment
– Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and vegetation
– Lower CAPE but less CIN
– Large terrain impacts within the experimental domain so that terrain may control convective systems
– Strong impact of transient synoptic disturbances
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
THORPEX
The THORPEX slides on the European flood are courtesy of Melvyn Shapiro, Co-chair, THORPEX International Science Steering Committee
11stst Example: Central European Flood Example: Central European Floodss
August 2002
Prague
Dundee Satellite Station: 1241 UTC 11 Aug. 2002Dundee Satellite Station: 1241 UTC 11 Aug. 2002
France
Italy
The StormThe Storm
Dresden GermanyDresden Germany
Central European FloodsCentral European Floods
Japan Japan Austria Austria
11 Aug.
1 Aug. Cyclogenesis off Japan
Courtesy of Shapiro and Thorpe
1
1 2
1 21 2
3
1 231
2 3 4
421 3
15
23 4
5 6 74
5 674
56
74
765
7
865
Flood
22ndnd Example: Minnesota Flood: 9-11 Example: Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002June 2002
Moderate drought on 1 June
Widespreadrainfall in excess of 5 inches.
Flood with >$340 million in federal disaster aid.
80% of homes and businesses damaged in Roseau, MN
Locally most significant flood on record.
Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002Minnesota Flood: 9-11 June 2002
Convection along Mei-Yu Front
Wisc. flood, previouswave packet ?
1st Downstream Cyclogenesis
2nd Downstreamcyclogenesis
Mn floodfrom frontaloverrunning
Atmospheric Technology Division
Opening Remarks, IHOP_2002 Science Team Meeting
Toulouse, June 2004
Thank for your attention and
for your hard work on IHOP_2002