Washington DC / Paris
WiMAX: Where Does its Future Lie?
Presented by: Daryl Schoolar
Date: April 27, 2010
2© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda
State of the Market
Progress both good and bad
Near-Term Drivers
Positive and negative
Future Prospects
Market opportunities
Questions & Answers
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STATE OF THE MARKET
WiMAX
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State of the Market
“The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated” –
Mark Twain
“You can’t always get what you want” – M. Jagger/K.
Richards
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State of the Market
12 Month’s of Growth
91 new deployments
POPs covered
increased by 43%
Other signs of life
60 base stations - certified
131 devices - certified
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State of the Market
Continued vendor progress with products
New base station & device announcements
– Alvarion, HTC, Huawei, Intel, Motorola, and Samsung to just name a
few
802.16m demonstration
– Samsung & Yota
– Launch of vendor working group - WCI
Greater transparency around shipments and scale of deployments
– Emphasis moving from number of deployments to the size of the
deployment
Vendors positioning WiMAX as integral part of their broader
infrastructure strategy
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State of the Market
Service providers showing progress
Packet One (P1): 140,000 subscribers
– 650 base station sites
Yota: over 350,000 subscribers
Clearwire: 438,000 WiMAX subscribers
– 46,000 of WiMAX subscribers come from MVNO partners
– Network in 27 markets, covering 34 million POPs
BSNL: March 2010 launched its first urban market in India
– Targeting 250,000 subscribers by end of 2010
UQ continues network expansion
– Now covering 447 municipalities
– 2,000 base stations installed in just over two months
– 150,000 subscribers
wi-tribe three active networks – Jordan, Pakistan, Philippines
– 80,000 subscribers
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State of the Market
Progress not exactly as planned
While market focus is on 802.16e, a significant portion of
deployments are 802.16d
Most deployments are fixed or nomadic, not mobile
Device certification has not met the WiMAX Forum’s forecasts
Majority of mobile operators are selecting LTE over WiMAX
– More than 64 mobile operators already committed to deploying LTE
– 24 operators are currently testing LTE
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NEAR-TERM DRIVERS
WiMAX
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Near-Term Drivers
Near-Term Drivers: Positive
Certification of 2.3GHz devices
Declining prices of devices
– $30-$40 USB modems, sub-$100 CPE
The WiMAX Forum’s “Open Retail Certification Program”
802.16m demonstrations and progress on product
certification/commercialization from the WiMAX Forum and WCI
India spectrum auction?
Increased momentum from Clearwire’s MVNO partners
– Expands the market
– Re-enforces the MVNO model
More operators coming forward and sharing their stories
– Stories of success breed market confidence
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Near Term Drivers
Near-Term Drivers: Positive
Committed infrastructure market
Continued product innovation
– Vendors offering multiple WiMAX solutions
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Alvarion Huawei Motorola Samsung ZTE
High Capacity
Base Station
Multiple Yes Multiple Multiple Multiple
Low/Mid
Capacity Base
Station
Yes Yes Multiple Multiple Yes
ASN Gateway In-House &
Partners
Multiple In-
House
In-House &
Partners
Multiple In-
House
In-House
Devices In-House &
Partners
In-House In-House In-House In-House
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Near-Term Drivers
Near-Term Drivers: Negative
GSMA forecasting 20 commercial LTE networks by end of 2010
– Directly challenging WiMAX’s competitive advantage of speed
– Challenging WiMAX’s two-year head start
TD-LTE threatening the traditional WiMAX market
– Qualcomm bidding on spectrum in India
– Alcatel-Lucent supporting TD-LTE over 802.16m
– Clearwire/Sprint supporting TD-LTE standard for 2.6Ghz
– WiMAX vendors also supporting TD-LTE
Exit/de-emphasis of market by high-profile vendors
– Alcatel-Lucent, Cisco, Nokia Siemens Networks
Many WiMAX operators are new, with limited track records
– Adequate funding
– Building market mindshare
– Incumbent competition
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FUTURE PROSPECTS
WiMAX
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Future Prospects
The “Digital Divide” still remains
Greenfield deployments
Fixed-line operators building a mobile service
Primarily data driven services
More like Wi-Fi on steroids than cellular data
Partnerships with established mobile operators
Provide network off-load services
Niche opportunities – utilities, security, etc
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Conclusion
Despite the lower profile versus LTE, WiMAX still
remains relevant
Investments in WiMAX continues
WiMAX technology continues to evolve
Operators need to offer something different than what
is currently offered by mobile operators
Look for opportunities outside the traditional service
provider space
LTE is the 4G choice for most mobile operators
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QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
WiMAX
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For more information, please contact…
Daryl Schoolar
Principal Analyst: Mobile Access
(703) 788-3609
[email protected] www.currentanalysis.com
Thank You
Washington, D.C.
21335 Signal Hill Plaza, Suite 200
Sterling, VA 20164, United States
Phone +1 703 404 9200
Toll free 877 787 8947
Fax +1 703 404 9300
Paris, France
Bureaux de Sèvres - 2, rue Troyon
92316 Sevres Cedex, France
Phone +33 (0) 1 41 14 83 15
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