Washington DC / Paris

WiMAX: Where Does its Future Lie?

Presented by: Daryl Schoolar

Date: April 27, 2010

2© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.

Agenda

State of the Market

Progress both good and bad

Near-Term Drivers

Positive and negative

Future Prospects

Market opportunities

Questions & Answers

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STATE OF THE MARKET

WiMAX

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State of the Market

“The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated” –

Mark Twain

“You can’t always get what you want” – M. Jagger/K.

Richards

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5

State of the Market

12 Month’s of Growth

91 new deployments

POPs covered

increased by 43%

Other signs of life

60 base stations - certified

131 devices - certified

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State of the Market

Continued vendor progress with products

New base station & device announcements

– Alvarion, HTC, Huawei, Intel, Motorola, and Samsung to just name a

few

802.16m demonstration

– Samsung & Yota

– Launch of vendor working group - WCI

Greater transparency around shipments and scale of deployments

– Emphasis moving from number of deployments to the size of the

deployment

Vendors positioning WiMAX as integral part of their broader

infrastructure strategy

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State of the Market

Service providers showing progress

Packet One (P1): 140,000 subscribers

– 650 base station sites

Yota: over 350,000 subscribers

Clearwire: 438,000 WiMAX subscribers

– 46,000 of WiMAX subscribers come from MVNO partners

– Network in 27 markets, covering 34 million POPs

BSNL: March 2010 launched its first urban market in India

– Targeting 250,000 subscribers by end of 2010

UQ continues network expansion

– Now covering 447 municipalities

– 2,000 base stations installed in just over two months

– 150,000 subscribers

wi-tribe three active networks – Jordan, Pakistan, Philippines

– 80,000 subscribers

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State of the Market

Progress not exactly as planned

While market focus is on 802.16e, a significant portion of

deployments are 802.16d

Most deployments are fixed or nomadic, not mobile

Device certification has not met the WiMAX Forum’s forecasts

Majority of mobile operators are selecting LTE over WiMAX

– More than 64 mobile operators already committed to deploying LTE

– 24 operators are currently testing LTE

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9

NEAR-TERM DRIVERS

WiMAX

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Near-Term Drivers

Near-Term Drivers: Positive

Certification of 2.3GHz devices

Declining prices of devices

– $30-$40 USB modems, sub-$100 CPE

The WiMAX Forum’s “Open Retail Certification Program”

802.16m demonstrations and progress on product

certification/commercialization from the WiMAX Forum and WCI

India spectrum auction?

Increased momentum from Clearwire’s MVNO partners

– Expands the market

– Re-enforces the MVNO model

More operators coming forward and sharing their stories

– Stories of success breed market confidence

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Near Term Drivers

Near-Term Drivers: Positive

Committed infrastructure market

Continued product innovation

– Vendors offering multiple WiMAX solutions

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Alvarion Huawei Motorola Samsung ZTE

High Capacity

Base Station

Multiple Yes Multiple Multiple Multiple

Low/Mid

Capacity Base

Station

Yes Yes Multiple Multiple Yes

ASN Gateway In-House &

Partners

Multiple In-

House

In-House &

Partners

Multiple In-

House

In-House

Devices In-House &

Partners

In-House In-House In-House In-House

12© Current Analysis Inc. All rights reserved.

Near-Term Drivers

Near-Term Drivers: Negative

GSMA forecasting 20 commercial LTE networks by end of 2010

– Directly challenging WiMAX’s competitive advantage of speed

– Challenging WiMAX’s two-year head start

TD-LTE threatening the traditional WiMAX market

– Qualcomm bidding on spectrum in India

– Alcatel-Lucent supporting TD-LTE over 802.16m

– Clearwire/Sprint supporting TD-LTE standard for 2.6Ghz

– WiMAX vendors also supporting TD-LTE

Exit/de-emphasis of market by high-profile vendors

– Alcatel-Lucent, Cisco, Nokia Siemens Networks

Many WiMAX operators are new, with limited track records

– Adequate funding

– Building market mindshare

– Incumbent competition

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13

FUTURE PROSPECTS

WiMAX

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Future Prospects

The “Digital Divide” still remains

Greenfield deployments

Fixed-line operators building a mobile service

Primarily data driven services

More like Wi-Fi on steroids than cellular data

Partnerships with established mobile operators

Provide network off-load services

Niche opportunities – utilities, security, etc

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Conclusion

Despite the lower profile versus LTE, WiMAX still

remains relevant

Investments in WiMAX continues

WiMAX technology continues to evolve

Operators need to offer something different than what

is currently offered by mobile operators

Look for opportunities outside the traditional service

provider space

LTE is the 4G choice for most mobile operators

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QUESTIONS & ANSWERS

WiMAX

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For more information, please contact…

Daryl Schoolar

Principal Analyst: Mobile Access

(703) 788-3609

dschoolar@currentanalysis.com www.currentanalysis.com

Thank You

Washington, D.C.

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Sterling, VA 20164, United States

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