Weekly Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking (period ending October 4th, 2013)
released October 9th, 2013
www.nanosresearch.com 2
Analysis (Released 10/08/2013)
The latest weekly tracking on the Nanos Party Brand Index for federal parties completed on
October 4, 2013 by Nanos Research suggests that the Liberal brand equity currently tracks
stronger than the other parties (59 points) compared to the Conservatives at 52 points, the
NDP at 48 points, the Green Party at 33 points and the Bloc Quebecois at 26 points
(Quebec only) respectively. A score above 50 on the diffusion index suggests a net positive
draw for a political party.
Party brand equity has shifted the most for the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec dropping five
points over the past two months, likely largely on the focus on the resignation of the BQ MP
as a result of the controversy over Quebec’s proposed “Charter of Values”. The
Conservative brand tracks strongest in the Prairies while the Liberal brand is strongest in
Ontario and Atlantic Canada. In the province of Quebec, the brand strength of the New
Democrats and the Liberals are at equivalent levels with neither party having the upper
hand.
Accessible voters for the parties are relatively stable with the exception of the BQ who have
seen an erosion in the percentage of the Quebecers who would consider voting BQ.
On the leadership front, Justin Trudeau and Stephen Harper in a tight race in terms of who
Canadians think would make the best Prime Minister.
www.nanosresearch.com 3
Weekly Nanos Party Brand Index Since voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to
think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Brand Index fills
this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference.
The Nanos Party Brand Index is a weekly composite measurement of federal party brands
based on four questions about the federal parties and their leadership. The questions
include:
• a ballot question that captures the 1st and 2nd vote preferences;
• a measure of whether the respondent would consider voting for the party;
• the 1st and 2nd preferences for Prime Minister of the current federal leaders; and,
• whether the respondent believes each current leader has the quality to be a good leader.
The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each
party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength
and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above 50 is an indication of
brand strength for the party and its leader at this time.
The important factors in this weekly tracking include the direction of the brand
strength or weakness and also the brand strength of one federal party relative to
another.
58 59
52 52
48 48
33 33
31
26
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc
4 www.nanosresearch.com
Canada Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for
Canada is based on a composite of the
following public opinion measures: the
national ballot, which party individuals would
consider voting for, the top two choices for
Prime Minister, and whether each party leader
has good leadership qualities.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
Party Brand Index Tracking by Region
5 www.nanosresearch.com
6 www.nanosresearch.com
British Columbia Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=152)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for BC is
based on a composite of the following public opinion
measures: the national ballot, which party individuals
would consider voting for, the top two choices for
Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has
good leadership qualities. There are wider margins
of accuracy for regional subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
60
58
50
52
49
44 38
37
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Liberal Conservative NDP Green
7 www.nanosresearch.com
Prairies Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=200)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for the Prairies
is based on a composite of the following public
opinion measures: the national ballot, which party
individuals would consider voting for, the top two
choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party
leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider
margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
54 53
62 63
38 39
33 32
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Liberal Conservative NDP Green
8 www.nanosresearch.com
Ontario Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=300)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for Ontario
is based on a composite of the following public
opinion measures: the national ballot, which party
individuals would consider voting for, the top two
choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party
leader has good leadership qualities. There are
wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
58
62
57
56
43
46
33 33
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Liberal Conservative NDP Green
9 www.nanosresearch.com
Quebec Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=248)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for Quebec
is based on a composite of the following public
opinion measures: the national ballot, which party
individuals would consider voting for, the top two
choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party
leader has good leadership qualities. There are
wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
57 56
39
42
58
56
32
29
31
26
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc
10 www.nanosresearch.com
Atlantic Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=100)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for the
Atlantic is based on a composite of the following
public opinion measures: the national ballot, which
party individuals would consider voting for, the top
two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each
party leader has good leadership qualities. There
are wider margins of accuracy for regional
subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
62
69
49
45
55 54
32
36
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Liberal Conservative NDP Green
Party Brand Index Tracking by Age
11 www.nanosresearch.com
12 www.nanosresearch.com
18 to 29 Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=205)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for the 18 to
29 age group is based on a composite of the following
public opinion measures: the national ballot, which
party individuals would consider voting for, the top two
choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party
leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider
margins of accuracy for age subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
56
63
52 52
49
38 39
33
30
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc
13 www.nanosresearch.com
30 to 39 Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=169)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for the 30 to
39 age group is based on a composite of the following
public opinion measures: the national ballot, which
party individuals would consider voting for, the top two
choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party
leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider
margins of accuracy for age subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
58
63
51 52
46 47
37
33
30
26
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc
14 www.nanosresearch.com
40 to 49 Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=208)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for the 40 to
49 age group is based on a composite of the following
public opinion measures: the national ballot, which
party individuals would consider voting for, the top two
choices for PM, and whether each party leader has
good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of
accuracy for age subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
60 61
52 52
43
49
31
33
31
27 25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc
15 www.nanosresearch.com
50 to 59 Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=178)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for the 50 to
59 age group is based on a composite of the following
public opinion measures: the national ballot, which
party individuals would consider voting for, the top two
choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party
leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider
margins of accuracy for age subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
59 60
49
52
50 49
32 31
30
23
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc
16 www.nanosresearch.com
60 plus Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=239)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for the 60 plus
age group is based on a composite of the following
public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party
individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices
for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has
good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of
accuracy for age subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
55
51
54 52
49
45
30
28
29
23 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc
Party Brand Index Tracking by Gender
17 www.nanosresearch.com
57
60
56
54
47 48
31 30
29
22 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc
18 www.nanosresearch.com
Male Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=470)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for males is
based on a composite of the following public opinion
measures: the national ballot, which party individuals
would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime
Minister, and whether each party leader has good
leadership qualities. There are wider margins of
accuracy for gender subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
58 58
47
50 49
47
35 35
32
29
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc
19 www.nanosresearch.com
Female Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=530)
The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for females is
based on a composite of the following public opinion
measures: the national ballot, which party individuals
would consider voting for, the top two choices for
Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has
good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of
accuracy for gender subsamples.
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
National Vote Considerations Tracking
20 www.nanosresearch.com
21 www.nanosresearch.com
National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)
Question: For each of the following federal
political parties, please tell me if you would
consider or not consider voting for it.
[RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
42% 40% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 40% 38% 40%
52% 50% 51% 51% 50% 52% 50% 49% 51%
49%
6% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013-06 2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05
Would consider voting Conservative Would not consider voting Conservative Unsure
22 www.nanosresearch.com
Question: For each of the following federal
political parties, please tell me if you would
consider or not consider voting for it.
[RANDOMIZE] NDP
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
58%
43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 43%
30%
47% 48% 48% 48% 47% 46% 44% 45% 45%
12% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 12% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013-06 2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05
Would consider voting NDP Would not consider voting NDP Unsure
National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)
23 www.nanosresearch.com
Question: For each of the following federal
political parties, please tell me if you would
consider or not consider voting for it.
[RANDOMIZE] Liberal Party
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
62%
51% 51% 50% 50% 50% 49% 51% 52% 52%
26%
39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40% 38% 38% 36%
12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013-06 2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05
Would consider voting Liberal Would not consider voting Liberal Unsure
National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)
24 www.nanosresearch.com
Question: For each of the following
federal political parties, please tell me if
you would consider or not consider voting
for it. [RANDOMIZE] Bloc Québécois
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
35%
42% 42% 44% 40% 38% 37% 37% 35%
30%
52%
49% 50% 49% 51% 53% 53% 55% 59%
64%
13% 9% 8% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 6% 6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013-06 2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05
Would consider voting BQ Would not consider voting BQ Unsure
Quebec only – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=248)
25 www.nanosresearch.com
Question: For each of the following federal
political parties, please tell me if you would
consider or not consider voting for it.
[RANDOMIZE] Green Party
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
38%
28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 25% 24% 26% 26%
46% 63% 62% 62% 61% 62%
63% 63% 62% 62%
16% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013-06 2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05
Would consider voting Green Would not consider voting Green Unsure
National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)
National Leadership Tracking
26 www.nanosresearch.com
27 www.nanosresearch.com
Question: Of the current federal political
party leaders, could you please rank your
top two current local preferences for
Prime Minister? [ROTATE PARTY
LEADERS]
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
30% 31%
29% 29%
17% 15%
1% 2%
6% 5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Justin Trudeau (Liberal) Stephen Harper (Conservative) Thomas Mulcair (NDP)
Daniel Paillé (BQ) Elizabeth May (Green)
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
National – Weekly Tracking – First Ranked Choice (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)
28 www.nanosresearch.com
Question: For each of the following federal
political party leaders, do you think they have
or do not have the qualities to be a good
political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Stephen
Harper
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
55% 53% 52% 51% 50% 52% 52% 54% 55%
38% 40% 41% 42% 42% 40% 39% 36% 36%
7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05
Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure
National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)
29 www.nanosresearch.com
Question: For each of the following federal
political party leaders, do you think they have
or do not have the qualities to be a good
political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Thomas
Mulcair
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
45% 44% 46% 45% 44% 44% 43% 44% 43%
30% 30% 28% 28% 28% 27% 28% 27% 28%
25% 26% 26% 26% 27% 29% 29% 30% 29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05
Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure
National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)
30 www.nanosresearch.com
Question: For each of the following federal
political party leaders, do you think they have
or do not have the qualities to be a good
political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Justin
Trudeau
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
55% 55% 55% 54% 54% 54% 57% 57% 58%
29% 28% 29% 31% 29% 29%
27% 25% 24%
16% 16% 16% 15% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05
Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure
National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)
31 www.nanosresearch.com
Question: For each of the following federal
political party leaders, do you think they have
or do not have the qualities to be a good
political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Daniel Paillé
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
23% 24% 22% 23% 25% 22% 21%
18% 15%
40% 39% 43% 43% 46%
44% 46% 46%
48%
37% 38% 35% 34% 29%
34% 33% 36% 38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05
Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure
National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=248)
32 www.nanosresearch.com
Question: For each of the following federal
political party leaders, do you think they have
or do not have the qualities to be a good
political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Elizabeth May
Contact: Nik Nanos
Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237
Washington DC: (202) 697-9924
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
31% 32% 32% 31% 30% 28% 29% 30% 31%
43% 41% 41% 41% 41% 42% 41% 40% 40%
26% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 29% 30% 29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05
Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure
National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)
Methodology
33 www.nanosresearch.com
Survey Methodology
34
The Weekly Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation,
headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based
on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians (land- and cell-lines), using a four week
rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of
1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The
interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the
oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views
of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to
100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand
strength. A score above 50 is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this
time.
The current report is based on a four week rolling average of Canadian opinion ending October 4,
2013.
A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus,
19 times out of 20.
www.nanosresearch.com
Download our app to get the
latest Nanos Numbers
streamed to your iPhone.
35
About Nanos Nanos is one of North America’s most trusted research and strategy organizations. Our team of
professionals is regularly called upon by senior executives to deliver superior intelligence and market
advantage whether it be helping to chart a path forward, managing a reputation or brand risk or
understanding the trends that drive success. Services range from traditional telephone surveys, through
to elite in-depth interviews, online research and focus groups. Nanos clients range from Fortune 500
companies through to leading advocacy groups interested in understanding and shaping the public
landscape. Whether it is understanding your brand or reputation, customer needs and satisfaction,
engaging employees or testing new ads or products, Nanos provides insight you can trust.
View our brochure
www.nanosresearch.com
Nik Nanos FMRIA
Chairman, Nanos Research Group
Ottawa (613) 234-4666 ext. 237
Washington DC (202) 697-9924
Top Related