Weekly Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking (period ending October

Weekly Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking (period ending October 4th, 2013)

released October 9th, 2013

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Analysis (Released 10/08/2013)

The latest weekly tracking on the Nanos Party Brand Index for federal parties completed on

October 4, 2013 by Nanos Research suggests that the Liberal brand equity currently tracks

stronger than the other parties (59 points) compared to the Conservatives at 52 points, the

NDP at 48 points, the Green Party at 33 points and the Bloc Quebecois at 26 points

(Quebec only) respectively. A score above 50 on the diffusion index suggests a net positive

draw for a political party.

Party brand equity has shifted the most for the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec dropping five

points over the past two months, likely largely on the focus on the resignation of the BQ MP

as a result of the controversy over Quebec’s proposed “Charter of Values”. The

Conservative brand tracks strongest in the Prairies while the Liberal brand is strongest in

Ontario and Atlantic Canada. In the province of Quebec, the brand strength of the New

Democrats and the Liberals are at equivalent levels with neither party having the upper

hand.

Accessible voters for the parties are relatively stable with the exception of the BQ who have

seen an erosion in the percentage of the Quebecers who would consider voting BQ.

On the leadership front, Justin Trudeau and Stephen Harper in a tight race in terms of who

Canadians think would make the best Prime Minister.

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Weekly Nanos Party Brand Index Since voters are not actually able to make a choice between elections, it is interesting to

think about party strength and support more broadly. The Nanos Party Brand Index fills

this need by incorporating more information than just current vote preference.

The Nanos Party Brand Index is a weekly composite measurement of federal party brands

based on four questions about the federal parties and their leadership. The questions

include:

• a ballot question that captures the 1st and 2nd vote preferences;

• a measure of whether the respondent would consider voting for the party;

• the 1st and 2nd preferences for Prime Minister of the current federal leaders; and,

• whether the respondent believes each current leader has the quality to be a good leader.

The views of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each

party that goes from 0 to 100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength

and 100 means it has maximum brand strength. A score above 50 is an indication of

brand strength for the party and its leader at this time.

The important factors in this weekly tracking include the direction of the brand

strength or weakness and also the brand strength of one federal party relative to

another.

58 59

52 52

48 48

33 33

31

26

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc

4 www.nanosresearch.com

Canada Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)

The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for

Canada is based on a composite of the

following public opinion measures: the

national ballot, which party individuals would

consider voting for, the top two choices for

Prime Minister, and whether each party leader

has good leadership qualities.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237

Washington DC: (202) 697-9924

[email protected]

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Party Brand Index Tracking by Region



British Columbia Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=152)

The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for BC is

based on a composite of the following public opinion

measures: the national ballot, which party individuals

would consider voting for, the top two choices for

Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has

good leadership qualities. There are wider margins

of accuracy for regional subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




60

58

50

52

49

44 38

37

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Liberal Conservative NDP Green


Prairies Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=200)

The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for the Prairies

is based on a composite of the following public

opinion measures: the national ballot, which party

individuals would consider voting for, the top two

choices for Prime Minister, and whether each party

leader has good leadership qualities. There are wider

margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




54 53

62 63

38 39

33 32

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70



Ontario Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=300)

The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for Ontario





leader has good leadership qualities. There are

wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




58

62

57

56

43

46

33 33

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65



Quebec Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=248)

The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for Quebec





leader has good leadership qualities. There are

wider margins of accuracy for regional subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




57 56

39

42

58

56

32

29

31

26

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65



Atlantic Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=100)

The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for the

Atlantic is based on a composite of the following

public opinion measures: the national ballot, which

party individuals would consider voting for, the top

two choices for Prime Minister, and whether each

party leader has good leadership qualities. There

are wider margins of accuracy for regional

subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




62

69

49

45

55 54

32

36

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75


Party Brand Index Tracking by Age



18 to 29 Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=205)

The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for the 18 to

29 age group is based on a composite of the following


party individuals would consider voting for, the top two



margins of accuracy for age subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




56

63

52 52

49

38 39

33

30

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65











Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




58

63

51 52

46 47

37

33

30

26

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65








choices for PM, and whether each party leader has

good leadership qualities. There are wider margins of

accuracy for age subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




60 61

52 52

43

49

31

33

31

27 25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65











Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




59 60

49

52

50 49

32 31

30

23

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60



60 plus Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=239)

The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for the 60 plus

age group is based on a composite of the following

public opinion measures: the national ballot, which party

individuals would consider voting for, the top two choices

for Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has


accuracy for age subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




55

51

54 52

49

45

30

28

29

23 20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60


Party Brand Index Tracking by Gender


57

60

56

54

47 48

31 30

29

22 20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60



Male Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=470)

The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for males is



would consider voting for, the top two choices for Prime

Minister, and whether each party leader has good

leadership qualities. There are wider margins of

accuracy for gender subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




58 58

47

50 49

47

35 35

32

29

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60



Female Weekly Index Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=530)

The Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking for females is



would consider voting for, the top two choices for

Prime Minister, and whether each party leader has


accuracy for gender subsamples.

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




National Vote Considerations Tracking



National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)

Question: For each of the following federal

political parties, please tell me if you would

consider or not consider voting for it.

[RANDOMIZE] Conservative Party

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




42% 40% 39% 38% 39% 38% 39% 40% 38% 40%

52% 50% 51% 51% 50% 52% 50% 49% 51%

49%

6% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05

Would consider voting Conservative Would not consider voting Conservative Unsure





[RANDOMIZE] NDP

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




58%

43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 43%

30%

47% 48% 48% 48% 47% 46% 44% 45% 45%

12% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 12% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05

Would consider voting NDP Would not consider voting NDP Unsure






[RANDOMIZE] Liberal Party

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




62%

51% 51% 50% 50% 50% 49% 51% 52% 52%

26%

39% 39% 39% 40% 40% 40% 38% 38% 36%

12% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05

Would consider voting Liberal Would not consider voting Liberal Unsure



Question: For each of the following

federal political parties, please tell me if

you would consider or not consider voting

for it. [RANDOMIZE] Bloc Québécois

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




35%

42% 42% 44% 40% 38% 37% 37% 35%

30%

52%

49% 50% 49% 51% 53% 53% 55% 59%

64%

13% 9% 8% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% 6% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05

Would consider voting BQ Would not consider voting BQ Unsure

Quebec only – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=248)





[RANDOMIZE] Green Party

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




38%

28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 25% 24% 26% 26%

46% 63% 62% 62% 61% 62%

63% 63% 62% 62%

16% 9% 10% 10% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-06 2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05

Would consider voting Green Would not consider voting Green Unsure


National Leadership Tracking



Question: Of the current federal political

party leaders, could you please rank your

top two current local preferences for

Prime Minister? [ROTATE PARTY

LEADERS]

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]

30% 31%

29% 29%

17% 15%

1% 2%

6% 5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Justin Trudeau (Liberal) Stephen Harper (Conservative) Thomas Mulcair (NDP)

Daniel Paillé (BQ) Elizabeth May (Green)




National – Weekly Tracking – First Ranked Choice (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=1,000)



political party leaders, do you think they have

or do not have the qualities to be a good

political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Stephen

Harper

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




55% 53% 52% 51% 50% 52% 52% 54% 55%

38% 40% 41% 42% 42% 40% 39% 36% 36%

7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05

Has qualities of a good leader Does not have qualities of a good leader Unsure






political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Thomas

Mulcair

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




45% 44% 46% 45% 44% 44% 43% 44% 43%

30% 30% 28% 28% 28% 27% 28% 27% 28%

25% 26% 26% 26% 27% 29% 29% 30% 29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05







political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Justin

Trudeau

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




55% 55% 55% 54% 54% 54% 57% 57% 58%

29% 28% 29% 31% 29% 29%

27% 25% 24%

16% 16% 16% 15% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05







political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Daniel Paillé

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




23% 24% 22% 23% 25% 22% 21%

18% 15%

40% 39% 43% 43% 46%

44% 46% 46%

48%

37% 38% 35% 34% 29%

34% 33% 36% 38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05


National – Weekly Tracking (Four week rolling average ending October 4, 2013, n=248)





political leader? [RANDOMIZE] Elizabeth May

Contact: Nik Nanos

Ottawa: (613) 234-4666 x 237


[email protected]




31% 32% 32% 31% 30% 28% 29% 30% 31%

43% 41% 41% 41% 41% 42% 41% 40% 40%

26% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 29% 30% 29%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013-08-10 2013-08-17 2013-08-24 2013-08-31 2013-09-07 2013-09-14 2013-09-21 2013-09-28 2013-10-05



Methodology


Survey Methodology

34

The Weekly Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking is produced by the Nanos Research Corporation,

headquartered in Canada, which operates in Canada and the United States. The data is based

on random telephone interviews with 1,000 Canadians (land- and cell-lines), using a four week

rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of

1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The

interviews are compiled into a four week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the

oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added. The views

of 1,000 respondents are compiled into a diffusion brand index for each party that goes from 0 to

100, where 0 means that the party has no brand strength and 100 means it has maximum brand

strength. A score above 50 is an indication of brand strength for the party and its leader at this

time.

The current report is based on a four week rolling average of Canadian opinion ending October 4,

2013.

A random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus,

19 times out of 20.

www.nanosresearch.com




35

About Nanos Nanos is one of North America’s most trusted research and strategy organizations. Our team of

professionals is regularly called upon by senior executives to deliver superior intelligence and market

advantage whether it be helping to chart a path forward, managing a reputation or brand risk or

understanding the trends that drive success. Services range from traditional telephone surveys, through

to elite in-depth interviews, online research and focus groups. Nanos clients range from Fortune 500

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landscape. Whether it is understanding your brand or reputation, customer needs and satisfaction,

engaging employees or testing new ads or products, Nanos provides insight you can trust.

View our brochure

www.nanosresearch.com

Nik Nanos FMRIA

Chairman, Nanos Research Group

Ottawa (613) 234-4666 ext. 237

Washington DC (202) 697-9924

[email protected]

Weekly Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking (period ending October

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Transcript of Weekly Nanos Party Brand Index Tracking (period ending October