WATER INFORMATION
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
ALLIANCE
(WIRADA)
SCIENCE PLAN
2 MAY 2008
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WIRADA
Science Plan
CONTENTS
1. Background......................................................................................................................3
2. Motivation and Vision.....................................................................................................4
3. WIRADA Scope and Objectives ......................................................................................4
4. WIRADA Investment Profile ...........................................................................................8
5. Benefits and major research outputs ............................................................................9
6. Structure ........................................................................................................................11
7 Scientific Streams, Objectives and Deliverables .........................................................13
7.1 Stream 1: Water Information Systems........................................................................13
7.2 Stream 2: Foundation Data Products ..........................................................................21
7.3 Stream 3: Water Accounting and Assessment............................................................31
7.4 Stream 4: Water Forecasting and Prediction..............................................................43
Table of acronyms.................................................................................................................................52
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WIRADA SCIENCE PLAN
1. Background
In late 2007 the Australian Parliament enacted the Water Bill 2007, which provides the
legislative framework for a national water plan and will formally commence as the Water Act
2007 (the Act) in early 2008. Part 7 of the Act expands the role of the Bureau of Meteorology
(the Bureau) to include the following functions:
• hold and manage all of Australia’s water data
• report on the status of Australia’s water resources, patterns of water use and
forecasts of future water availability
• maintain a comprehensive set of water accounts for the nation
• set national standards for water use metering and hydrologic measurements
• influence and support state-based investments in water monitoring and water use
metering programs; and
• commission strategic investigations and procure special data sets to enhance our
understanding of Australia’s water resources.
The Act places responsibilities on the Director of Meteorology to deliver specific products
within prescribed timeframes. Furthermore, the Bureau is highly motivated to deliver client
focused meaningful services and products which will contribute to its new functions under
the Act. Given that these new responsibilities greatly enhance the Bureau’s role in water
information: conceptualisation, development and production of the new services will require
a staged implementation involving capacity building, partnership development and the
establishment and maintenance of operational systems. One key aspect will be the manner
in which the Bureau will address its scientific (Research and Development (R&D)) needs. The
Bureau does not intend to build an internal R&D capability, rather it intends to leverage off
the existing hydrology and water resources R&D capabilities already present in Australia. In
this regard, the Bureau proposes, through this agreement, to co-invest in research with the
CSIRO. It is well recognized that the CSIRO has been building its capacity in these areas in
recent years and by co-investing the Bureau and CSIRO will be able to target this R&D to
meet the needs of the new Water Act.
This document describes the framework of R&D activities to be undertaken under the Water
Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA). It specifically identifies areas of
opportunity where joint (the Bureau and CSIRO) investment would produce outcomes in
support of the Bureau’s new water information role. It is intended as a companion
document to the Umbrella Agreement which describes the terms, conditions and
governance arrangements under which activities (projects) will take place.
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2. Motivation and Vision
MOTIVATION
Sustainable water resources management decisions must be based on reliable water
information services and products, which in turn require high quality data and sound science
to be provided through robust, modern delivery systems.
The management of Australia’s water resources is facing many challenges such as climate
variability and change, growing urban demands, over allocations of resources, etc. The
availability of nationally consistent services and products, including water resources
assessments, national water accounts and water forecasting and prediction tools will be
essential to future decision making at national, regional, state and local levels.
Over the past decade water-related agencies in Australia have collected and maintained
growing volumes of water information in closed proprietary systems. This has met
immediate business needs, however during this time there has been growing acceptance
that increased sharing of water data between jurisdictions would provide significant benefits
beyond its immediate use and thus meet a greater number of identified needs.
VISION
The shared vision of the Bureau and CSIRO for Australian Water Information is:
3. WIRADA Scope and Objectives
SCOPE
Investment in the areas of work outlined by this Science Plan will provide the Bureau with
the scientific capability it will require to meet its objectives for improved management and
utilisation of water information. It will also greatly enhance national capabilities in these
specific and related areas. This five year program will ensure that the combined capabilities
and experience of the Bureau and CSIRO are brought to bear on the science required to
develop the knowledge and tools necessary to meet the short and long term needs of the
Bureau.
The scope of the research framework in this Science Plan includes the following areas of
focus:
• Water Information Systems
• Foundation Data Products
• Water Accounting, Assessment and Long-Term Prediction
• Water Forecasting
TO IMPROVE THE MANAGEMENT OF AUSTRALIA’S WATER RESOURCES THROUGH THE
DELIVERY OF VALUE ADDED WATER INFORMATION PRODUCTS BASED ON A
COMPREHENSIVE, INNOVATIVE AND ROBUST NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES
INFORMATION SYSTEM.
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WIRADA will be focused on the R&D to underpin the operational requirements for the
current and future versions of the Australian Water Resources Information System (AWRIS).
There will also be substantial research and development occurring outside the WIRADA
agreement through other partners and different research funding arrangements that will be
important to align, apply and develop in this particular domain (Figure 1). Research
undertaken through the CAWCR Joint Venture arrangement between CSIRO and the Bureau,
focussing on the ACCESS model development, will have clear applicability to the climate,
atmosphere, and numerical weather prediction needs of a national water information
system, but are not being developed for that purpose alone. Likewise complementary work
through CSIRO’s Water for a Healthy Country flagship in the Water Resources Observation
Network, Better Basin Futures, Urban Water and Healthy Water Ecosystems themes and the
eWater CRC will complement the WIRADA investment and contribute to the overall vision of
the Bureau’s Water Division.
FIGURE 1 RELATIONSHIP OF WIRADA WITH SOME ALIGNED RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
EFFORTS WITHIN AND OUTSIDE CSIRO
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PROGRAMME OBJECTIVE
The Bureau has a challenging set of obligations to deliver on in the next 5 years. To achieve
these obligations, the Bureau will have to undertake tasks that push the boundaries of
existing knowledge and methodologies. WIRADA will provide the core R&D capacity for the
development of new methods, tools, techniques and knowledge to underpin the
development of robust operational systems by the Bureau in the water information area.
The Bureau will naturally view its R&D needs in the context of its mission to deliver AWRIS.
Figure 2 provides a conceptual process flow for the delivery of such a system. Each step
provides an opportunity for innovation and thus the process flow forms the basis of the
research framework. WIRADA research activities will likely span multiple steps of this
process, thus the process flow is not the structure of this science plan. Rather, the process
diagram is used in the descriptions of R&D streams and topics to indicate the contribution of
each of the identified research areas to the overall process.
TO DELIVER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT TO UNDERPIN THE BUREAU’S OPERATIONAL
WATER INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR AUSTRALIA.
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FIGURE 2 CONCEPTUAL PROCESS FLOW FOR A NATIONAL WATER RESOURCES INFORMATION
SYSTEM
DELIVERY OF AN OPERATIONAL WATER INFORMATION SYSTEM WILL REQUIRE THE
FOLLOWING ABILITIES:
DISCOVER: FINDING DATA, AGREED VOCABULARIES FOR DATA EXCHANGE.
INGEST: INFRASTRUCTURE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR HANDLING UPTAKE
AND DISTRIBUTION OF LARGE VOLUMES OF WATER DATA
ASSEMBLE: TOOLS, MODELS AND FRAMEWORKS FOR THE ASSEMBLY OF
DATA AND MODELS INTO USEFUL COVERAGES BOTH IN TIME
AND SPACE
POLISH: IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA
THROUGH AUTOMATED QA/QC (Care will need to be taken in this
activity to ensure that actual extremes and outliers are not impacted by
the processes applied)
AUGMENT: USE THE OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO INFER OTHER ELEMENTS OF
THE WATER BALANCE IN SPACE AND TIME
ANALYSE: APPLYING THE COVERAGES, DATA AND MODELS IN A
HYDROLOGICAL CONTEXT FOR HISTORICAL AND SYNOPTIC
VIEWS
PREDICT: APPLYING THE COVERAGES, DATA AND MODELS IN A
HYDROLOGICAL CONTEXT FOR FORECASTING AND PREDICTION
OF WATER RESOURCES
SHARE: DELIVER RAW AND PROCESSED DATA TO USERS AND TO THIRD
PARTY TOOLS IN STANDARD FORMS
REPORT: DELIVERING INFORMATION FROM ALL STAGES TO
STAKEHOLDERS THROUGH FLEXIBLE, UNDERSTANDABLE AND
VISUALLY EFFECTIVE TOOLS
THIS DIAGRAM IS USED LATER IN THE SCIENCE PLAN TO INDICATE THE RELATIVE
CONTRIBUTION OF EACH OF THE IDENTIFIED RESEARCH AREAS TO THE OVERALL
PROCESS.
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STREAM OBJECTIVES
R&D areas that CSIRO and the Bureau have identified as relevant to the Bureau can be
grouped according to the following broad streams:
1. Water Information Systems: Activities under this stream will be focused on the
development of a systems architecture for water information systems that is robust and
evolvable with changes in data sources, applications and technologies. This includes a
framework of open standards for information exchange, data and computational services,
and tools for visualization, quality assurance and analysis of historical data and real-time
data from monitoring infrastructure.
2. Foundation Data Products: Developing methodologies, data models and techniques for
creating and maintaining fundamental hydrological information products to support water
information management, reporting, forecasting, assessment and accounting.
3. Water Accounting and Assessment: Developing spatial and temporal information about
the past and present generation, distribution and use of water resources. Using this
information to develop water balances, water resource assessments, national water
accounts and interactions between components of the water cycle at many scales.
4. Water Forecasting and Prediction: Extending the Bureau’s hydrological forecasting
services from short-term flood forecasting to continuous forecasting of flows, water
inundation and water demand several days out as well as water resources availability
forecasts to one or more seasons.
The R&D scope described in this plan exceeds the resources available to WIRADA. Therefore
some areas of research will be delivered through other investments, while others may not
occur in the life of the agreement.
It is expected that, over the life of the agreement, the WIRADA investment profile will vary
across the streams and will be reviewed on a continuing basis by the management
committee. Furthermore, it is anticipated that investment in Streams 1 and 2 will
predominately occur early, as they will provide the foundations for Streams 3 and 4.
4. WIRADA Investment Profile
This section discusses the WIRADA investment in terms of short, medium and long term R&D
activities as distinguished from operational activities, including the relative mix of
investment and the expectations on R&D projects for delivering to operational systems.
It is recognised that WIRADA needs to support R&D that has a path to adoption through
operational deployment within the Bureau’s existing business systems. This will apply to
short medium and longer term activities that carry higher risk, while holding the potential to
revolutionise some aspect of the Bureau’s practice. WIRADA will not be supporting
operational activities that require no research input.
WIRADA R&D activities will be categorised as being of a Horizon 1, Horizon 2 or Horizon 3
nature:
Horizon 1 R&D: involves the review, adaptation and application of existing technologies,
with project outputs that are ready for operational deployment within 12 to 18 months.
Horizon 1 R&D is expected to constitute 30% of the WIRADA portfolio.
Horizon 2 R&D: involves significant, targeted new research topics, with a clearly articulated
path to impact. Project outputs should be operational within 2 to 5 years. Horizon 2 R&D is
expected to constitute 60% of the WIRADA portfolio.
Horizon 3 R&D: involves activities with greater risk and greater potential for impact, having a
clearly articulated ability to revolutionise practice in future years. While Horizon 3 projects
do not require operational deliverables, it is envisaged that the likely success of the activities
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will be evident through review no more than 24 months from the start of the project.
Horizon 3 R&D is expected to constitute 10% of the WIRADA portfolio.
WIRADA exists to deliver CSIRO R&D into operational systems within the Bureau. While it is
not expected that WIRADA projects will manage the transfer of R&D to operations, it is
essential to consider both the operational environment and migration process as part of
project planning.
The Bureau has a substantial history of transferring R&D to operational systems. This
experience is captured in processes for managing the transfer, including mitigating the
impact of any change to the system, as well as the impact on users and downstream
systems. The transfer processes include generic aspects, applicable to the Bureau’s water
information responsibilities, as well as very detailed processes that are specific to the
operational systems within the National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre. The
Water Division will create tailored procedures that take account of AWRIS and other Water
Division systems. WIRADA project leaders will work with the Water Division staff, and the
Bureau’s Operational Systems Implementation Committee (OSIC) in planning the transfer to
operations for project deliverables.
These considerations have informed both the Science Plan, and the terms of the WIRADA
agreement.
5. Benefits and major research outputs
BENEFITS
The Bureau and CSIRO will both gain significant benefits from co-investing in WIRADA. The
Australian Government and the public will benefit through efficient and effective use of
taxpayer funds. WIRADA focuses a considerable proportion of CSIRO’s water information
investment in the Water for a Healthy Country Flagship with the needs of the Bureau’s
Water Division. The capability of these two important national institutions will together be
able to deliver more value than would otherwise have been the case.
Benefits to CSIRO Benefit to the Bureau
• Greater impact of CSIRO research
through well defined delivery
pathway (specifically to the Bureau’s
operational services and systems)
and enhanced opportunity for
operational adoption of CSIRO
innovations
• Improved access to the Bureau’s
science infrastructure and data
• Improved security of funding for
nationally important water
• Capturing a critical mass of highly
relevant R&D expertise to focus on
Bureau needs in the water
information space
• Future flexibility to change R&D
effort to focus on new challenges
and directions, due to CSIRO’s large
capability across many closely
related fields
• A shared ability to develop and
evolve crucial systems and
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information research
applications in the area of water
information, at a scientific level
comparable to leading counterparts
internationally and consistent with
policy demands in Australia
MAJOR RESEARCH OUTPUTS
Although a comprehensive description of research outputs will be provided in the detailed
work-planning, specific research outputs are outlined in the stream descriptions in this
document. The following table provides an overview of some of the major outputs WIRADA
will deliver in its first five years.
STREAM MAJOR RESEARCH OUTPUT
Water Information Systems
Water information standards Protocols and reference software
implementations for the management and
transmission of water information, forming
the basis of National Water Information
standards
Service mediation Registries, ontologies, tools and services for
the integration and composition of data and
processing services and products
Efficient delivery of National water
information
Web Services for the ingestion, automated
QA/QC and delivery of historical and real
time spatio-temporal coverages, point
observational, and geospatial datasets
Reporting and visualisation techniques for
new water information
New models and tools for reporting,
querying, visualising and data mining water
information for a variety of applications,
including water resource managers, and
policy and decision makers
Foundation Data Products
Australian Hydrological Geospatial Fabric Design and methodology for structuring and
populating a national geospatial framework
as the spatial structure of surface water and
groundwater features used in water
accounting, assessment and long-term
prediction
Improved estimation of precipitation Current and historical gridded rainfall
products at a scale and quality useful for
hydrological applications.
Improved estimation of actual Current and historical gridded ET products at
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evapotranspiration (ET) a scale and quality useful for hydrological
applications.
Remote sensing of water storages and
inundation
Improved accuracy of streamflow, runoff
interception, flood and inundation
assessments and forecasts.
Water Accounting and Assessment
Integrated water resources accounting and
assessment
Standards, framework and system for
integrated water resources accounting and
assessment
Groundwater Methods and tools suitable for groundwater
accounting and assessment of different
aquifers throughout Australia
Catchment Water Balance Methods and tools suitable for catchment
water balance accounting and assessment
for both gauged and ungauged catchments
throughout Australia
Water in rivers and storages Methods and tools suitable for river and
storage water accounting and assessment of
river systems throughout Australia
Water extraction, usage and entitlement
accounting
An annual accounting system for water
extraction, usage and entitlement
Water Forecasting and Prediction
Short-term river flow and flood inundation
forecasting
Extension and enhancement of current flood
forecasting modelling system, methods and
tools for next generation of forecasting
systems, and inundation forecasting
modelling system
Seasonal inflow and water demand
forecasting
Skilled and widely applicable models for
seasonal forecasting of multi-site inflow,
flood risk, spatially distributed runoff and soil
moisture, and water demand at multiple
scales
Long-term water resources prediction Consistent methods and tools, that can be
applied regularly and widely in Australia, for
predicting decadal water resources
conditions and quantifying uncertainties
6. Structure
LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNANCE
CSIRO and the Bureau are committed to establishing a simple, but effective governance
structure. Whilst meeting the necessary governance requirements of each institution, the
structure will enable ready, transparent and cost effective management of WIRADA.
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The governance structure will consist of a Management Committee, Program Director and
Project Leaders.
A Program Director selected by and reporting to the Management Committee will manage
Project Leaders selected to run Projects within the Program.
Each project will have a Bureau employee nominated as sponsor to act as the key contact for
the project team within the Bureau.
MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE
The Management Committee will be the highest level of management in the structure.
Proposed members of the Management Committee are:
• An independent chair
• Director of Meteorology (Bureau)
• Deputy Director (Water) (Bureau)
• CSIRO Group Executive (CSIRO)
• Director of the Water for a Healthy Country Flagship (CSIRO)
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7 Scientific Streams, Objectives and Deliverables
7.1 Stream 1: Water Information Systems
OVERALL OBJECTIVE
This stream covers R&D to create a system architecture for a robust and evolvable Water
Information System. This will include:
• Water Information Standards: Open standards, interfaces and services for the
discovery, sharing and access of water information and metadata
• Service Mediation: Techniques and technologies to facilitate integration of water
information services
• Efficient Delivery of Water Information: Web based technologies for rapid and
efficient delivery of complex information and models
• Reporting and Visualisation Techniques: Technologies for customized and
automated reporting of data, analyses, reports and forecasts, along with
assessments of uncertainty for the full range of water information.
Water Information Standards
DESCRIPTION
The Bureau is required to collate, manage and
distribute a very broad range of water information,
from the large number of public and private
organisations that currently manage it. Agreed data
standards for water data are lacking. Indeed, even in
situations where a single product dominates the data
management market, variations in data
representations still occur and this hinders attempts to
take a national approach to water information. Standard approaches need to be developed
that cover both the form of the data (syntactic standards), and the content of the data,
including metadata.
Standards of the nature referred to here have been developed for other natural resources
domains, often under umbrella standards defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium.
There are currently international efforts to define water information standards, such as the
recently formed International Water Data Interoperability Forum. Standard development
efforts under WIRADA would involve supporting and contributing to these groups.
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Develop a common conceptual model for water information to accommodate some
variation in syntactic data standards and facilitate evolution of the standards.
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• Develop syntactic data standards for use in the automatic ingestion of data by the
Bureau’s information systems and for the consumption of data by subsequent
applications such as water forecasting models. These standards should be open, in
that they should be freely available to both data providers contributing to the
information system, and also to data consumers, such as application developers
creating tools that retrieve and process water information.
• Develop reference implementations for each concept within the standard, serving
several purposes including validation of the standards and facilitating adoption of
the standards.
• Validation tools for conformance testing.
OUTCOMES
• Standards for the management and transmission of water information to be
incorporated in the Regulations associated with the Act (the Regulations).
• These standards will be the language used to describe and transmit water
information between data collectors and the Bureau and onward to data and
product users.
• Promotion of the standards and their subsequent uptake by groups outside the
Bureau, such as tool developers, will result in more effective and timely uptake of
the Bureau’s water information products, thus realising a greater national return on
investment.
KEY OUTPUTS
• Evolvable Water Information Standards, covering in the first instance the data
elements required by AWRIS, documented in an agreed form and developed in
collaboration with all stakeholders, including Australian and international groups.
• Reference software implementation for standards.
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Information modellers
• Conceptual modellers
• Software developers
• Collaboration with international groups
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PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• The Water Information Standards will be implemented within AWRIS, as the
communication protocol for both ingesting data into AWRIS from providers and for
providing data to users.
• The standards will be a component of the compliance regime in the Regulations and
the published standards facilitate compliance by data providers with the
Regulations. It may be possible and desirable to commodify the use of the standards
to facilitate adoption, such as creating a standard bridge between state based
databases (eg. HYDSYS) and the Bureau’s AWRIS.
Service Mediation
DESCRIPTION
The development of an enduring
information system requires consideration
of the long term evolution of the system
architecture. Most operational systems of
similar scope and content to the Bureau’s
envisaged water information system rely
on either largely static component
interfaces and data models, or else a
highly centralised architecture of
sufficiently small scope so that a very small number of people can understand and maintain
it. Such systems are unable to neither take advantage of the knowledge capital of the
community of expertise; nor readily adapt to changes in requirements, scope, content and
conceptual knowledge in the domain. Such changes require disruptive across-the-board
software rewrites, and create a significant maintenance burden.
A semantic approach to information systems seeks to create evolvable systems by relying on
declarative descriptions of information resources and information processing tools within
the system, along with declarative descriptions of the information needs of users. General
purpose inferencing engines can then be used to orchestrate access to information
resources to satisfy the information need.
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Develop tools that manage the relationships between multiple representations of
standard information models in conventional artefacts such as controlled
vocabularies, object oriented software diagrams, ontologies, XML Schema
definitions and relational database schemas.
• Develop tools that support composition of services, including the development of
audit trails over the computation process, enabling repeatability of analyses.
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• Develop methods for machine interpretation of security and privacy policies,
especially where they range over multiple parties, enabling automatic deployment
of policy enforcement procedures within service-oriented information systems.
OUTCOMES
• The application of semantic approaches to inform the AWRIS architecture will
support the development and evolution of the system into the future.
KEY OUTPUTS
• Registries to enable the publication and discovery of models and data services
• Demonstration tools for use by domain experts in the discovery, composition and
use of a range of services
• A water resources ontology for use in domain independent semantic reasoning tools
• Tools and services for converting between syntactic data models
• Middleware for enforcing security and privacy policy
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Computer and information scientists with expertise in semantics and web services
• Software development
• Linkages to domain expertise in hydrology
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• It is proposed to develop a program delivering a series of demonstrators that
illustrate the concepts and embed the research outcomes at gradually improving
levels of maturity. Outputs would be developed to a level suitable for
experimentation within the Bureau amongst selected key staff, and then transferred
to the Bureau or a contractor for development of an operational capability.
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Efficient Delivery of Water Information
DESCRIPTION
The Bureau is facing new challenges in the
ingestion, management and delivery of water
resources information, both in terms of the large
number of data sources and the very large data
volumes associated with some of those sources.
The Bureau has significant experience in delivering large quantities of data to the general
public and to a range of specialist groups. Much of this delivery uses traditional technologies
such as web pages (HTML, graphics), and file based data transfer (FTP). Furthermore, most
requests are for relatively small amounts of data, albeit from a very large number of clients.
The Bureau now faces new challenges in the delivery of large amounts of water information
to a diverse user community, including delivering data to a range of third-party modelling
and analysis tools.
The adoption of web services as a delivery mechanism is critical to the efficient uptake of the
water information resources and applications, but presents challenges in developing services
that efficiently transfer large amounts of data and in defining service interfaces that
encourage application developers to be efficient in their information access.
Ingestion and management of a large number of data streams requires automation of the
data input process, particularly in areas of data QA and QC, managing data update and
revision and dealing with real time data streams.
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Development of services for efficiently extracting and transmitting large regular data
sets (2D grids, 3D data cubes and higher dimension data cubes).
• New services types to reliably, easily, automatically and efficiently update copies of
point of truth datasets. These services will include update, authentication and
subscription services.
• New QA/QC algorithms for the identification and rectification of errors in real-time
data streams.
OUTCOMES
• Allow AWRIS to provide response times in line with user expectations through
technology that underpins key components of AWRIS, including the enabling
framework and the web interface.
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• Minimising the human intervention required in the ingestion and management of
data streams through automation of QA/QC and real time data input.
• Improved transparency through an efficient mechanism for updating and version
control of data products.
• Simpler management of the multitude of data inputs to the Bureau’s water
information systems.
KEY OUTPUTS
• Services for the delivery of large spatio-temporal datasets in a form and timeframe
appropriate for modelling.
• Delivery of real-time data and point observations from a large, distributed water
information network.
• Incorporation of inline automated QA procedures for the delivery of real-time data
and the construction of archive records.
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• System Architecture
• Software Development
• Database Architecture
• Statistical data quality control
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Tools and techniques developed in this area will be embedded within the AWRIS
enabling framework and web interfaces. Following adoption of deployment
protocols between CSIRO and the Bureau it is anticipated that tools developed in
this area would be able to be embedded in the operational system with minimal re-
engineering.
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Reporting and Visualisation Techniques for Water Information
DESCRIPTION
Reporting is a key component of each of the
water information products to be developed by
the Bureau. In addition to the specific reporting
requirements of each product, there is the
requirement for generic reporting capability to
allow users to retrieve water information
products and the underlying data at the points in
time and space of relevance to them. Visualisation can greatly enhance the understanding
and analysis of water information. The ability to deliver interactive visualisations of spatio-
temporal gridded, observation and feature data sets will provide valuable analysis
capabilities to users.
Within the water resources domain there are a growing number of websites delivering
dynamic data, such as reservoir levels or streamflow forecasts. These sites have, at least
partially, automated the maintenance and publication process, although typically the
resulting product is still quite rigid and it can be difficult for a user to re-purpose the
information for a different application.
More broadly, in other domains, advanced data analysis techniques have been developed to
deal with large and complex data sets. Data mining is used in domains such as market
research and fraud detection to help identify patterns that exist in large and multi-
dimensional datasets.
User configured reporting systems exist in several domains, ranging from custom RSS feeds
(eg Google News) through to prototype systems such as iJournal that dynamically integrate
plain text reports with live data feeds and model outputs.
Technology for visualisation of multi-dimensional data both on the desktop and over the
web has been developed. This is best evident in the uptake of spatial information by the
general public through tools such as GoogleEarth. Applying these general technologies to the
water domain provides opportunities to create more accessible and widely used water
information products.
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Design a query model that allows the user to retrieve information from locations
based on the geospatial fabric data model, information based on time window
(historical, present, future), available variables (eg flow, storage, entitlement) and
other metadata (eg method, author and quality).
• Develop reporting services for the construction of a range of ‘consuming’
applications, including the Bureau’s systems and third party tools (models). The web
service interface should be constructed such that the calling application can
interrogate historical data, forecasts and outlooks using the same protocol, thus
allowing individual applications, such as river models, to use these data sources
interchangeably.
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• Develop a reporting interface allowing end-users to construct reports based on the
query model, and save these report configurations for automatic updating and
republishing. Such a reporting system must allow the user to include multiple
information elements and configure their appropriate presentation, along with the
specification of validation constraints that specify the conditions or events under
which the dynamic report is sensible.
• Explore the use of data mining techniques for identifying patterns across space, time
and specific attributes. This includes statistical tools for objectively identifying trends
and patterns and visualisation techniques for assisting human operators to identify
relationships between information elements in multiple dimensions.
• Explore visualisation technologies for delivery of 2-, 3- and 4D (spatio-temporal) data
over the web. These includes investigating techniques for integrating gridded,
observed and feature data sets that may have spatial and temporal variability, as
well as the generation of visualisation workflow components allowing rendering of
particular views of a dataset.
OUTCOMES
• High quality reporting and visualisation capabilities to underpin the publication of
national water accounts and national water resource assessments.
• Dynamically updating, user customisable reporting will reduce the development
effort required to create reports for the Bureau, and ultimately for other
stakeholders.
• Advanced data interrogation, such as data mining, and integrated, interactive
visualisations will increase the value derived from the information by providing
opportunities for new insights and inferences across a national dataset.
KEY OUTPUTS
• Query model and tools
• Reporting model and tools
• Data mining tools
• Visualisation tools
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CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Human factors and user interface design
• Information and Database Architecture
• Software development
• Real time event detection
• Statistical science
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Tools developed in this area would be embedded within the AWRIS enabling
framework and web interface. Following adoption of deployment protocols between
CSIRO and the Bureau it is anticipated that tools developed in this area would be
able to be embedded in the operational system with minimal re-engineering.
Ultimately, other stakeholders will be able to integrate these tools into their own
business systems.
7.2 Stream 2: Foundation Data Products
OVERALL OBJECTIVE
The Bureau’s national water reporting, assessment, accounting and forecasting products
must be underpinned by high quality spatial data, including a consistent national hydrologic
spatial structure (geospatial fabric) as well as spatio-temporal data on key components of
the water balance. This stream covers the development of methodologies, data models and
techniques for populating core hydrological data products in the following areas:
• Design and development of an Australian Hydrological Geospatial Fabric which will
provide the framework for connecting components of the physical water cycle
• Methods for improved estimation of precipitation nationally for hydrologic
assessment and forecasting
• Methods for improved estimation and prediction of actual ET nationally for
hydrologic assessment and forecasting
• New techniques for detecting water in the landscape including private storages and
flood inundation.
22
Australian Hydrological Geospatial Fabric
DESCRIPTION
An important element of a national water
resources information system is the relationship
between incoming temporal data streams and
the corresponding spatial features: the
catchments, streams, aquifers, floodplains,
storages, and wetlands that make up the
hydrological system. Developing and delivering
water resources information requires linking
these features with information about the interactions between features. At present there is
no national geospatial data set suitable for hydrological applications.
At a minimum, the Australian Geospatial Fabric will include at least the following key
national data sets:
• a hydrologically sound, consistent digital elevation model (DEM)
• a stream network with associated stream network topology and relevant level of
partitioning of components (eg river reaches)
• an aquifer data set and information on groundwater-surface water connectivity
• key measurement points (including sites of gauges, bores, storages (reservoirs and
farm dams), off-takes, etc)
• reporting boundaries (eg catchment boundaries); and
• floodplain and wetland boundaries.
A national geospatial fabric must be underpinned by a sophisticated data model to capture
the complexity and connectivity of hydrologic features. Additionally, the geospatial fabric
must be populated with consistent national data for those features, captured at a
sufficiently high resolution for use in the water information products envisaged by the
Bureau. As a basis for the geospatial fabric, the best national, hydrologically sound DEM has
a resolution of 9”. Higher resolution national elevation data is available through SRTM (3”
and 1”) though this requires correction to create a hydrologically useful dataset. Finer
resolution data is available in some regions, but there has not been any integration of this
data nationally.
23
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Development of an appropriate data model, based on ArcHydro, for representing
the Australian hydrologic system.
• Convergence of existing spatial data, including merging stream network with the
location and specification of engineered structures such as storages and gauging
stations.
• Methods for representing groundwater resources in a hydrologic geospatial fabric,
including characterising interactions with surface water.
• Derivation of improved spatial data sets, including a hydrologically sound national
DEM, mapped and generated stream networks, drainage areas and permanent
water bodies.
• Methods for characterising reach and landscape attributes.
OUTCOMES
• Consistent and linked spatial structure for the analysis and publication of national
water accounts and water resources assessments by the Bureau.
• More efficient and consistent river and catchment modelling nationally.
KEY OUTPUTS
• A new National Hydrologic DEM at an appropriate resolution for national water
accounting and assessment and streamflow forecasting.
• Information model, revised over a number of years, for representing key elements of
the Geospatial Fabric.
• Populated Geospatial Fabric for a challenging case study catchment.
• Delivery of the complete, national dataset undertaken by an operational spatial
analysis group with supervision and quality control through WIRADA.
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Information modelling
• Terrain analysis
• Research spatial analysis
• Surfacewater and groundwater hydrology
24
• Collaboration with operational spatial analysis group for population of national
geofabric
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Development of the national geospatial fabric is envisaged as a collaboration
between WIRADA and an operational spatial analysis group in the Bureau, with
WIRADA developing the methodology and the data model and then validating these
in a substantial catchment case study. The operational group would then populate
the geospatial fabric nationally, with further R&D performed as necessary during
review of this process.
Improved Estimation and Forecasts of Precipitiation
DESCRIPTION
As the key driver of runoff processes, the quality
of rainfall data has a major impact on accounting
historical and current conditions and for
forecasting future conditions on various
timescales.
Current methods for the measurement and
estimation of rainfall fall into the following
categories:
• Real time observation of rainfall by ground based radar, satellite and the rainfall
gauge network
• Construction of gridded rainfall datasets, at scale and accuracy useful for
hydrological applications, utilising past observations, based on time series at climate
observing stations or gridded data
• Production of rainfall estimates from deterministic and ensemble based dynamical
numerical prediction models initialized from real time observations
The best way to improve precipitation data products is to combine observations from
multiple ground based radars and satellite-based sensors with rainfall gauge data to yield a
space-time distribution with minimal bias and quantified errors. Application of these
methods in real time is limited by the gauge network and the ability of the dynamical
prediction models to assimilate these data and represent precipitation processes within the
dynamical framework.
25
Methods for forecasting and long term prediction of rainfall include:
1. Generation of rainfall forecasts at roughly 3 timescales:
• < 1 hour (for applications such as flash flood forecasting): combining radar-based
observations and diagnostic techniques.
• 1 – 6 hours: ‘now-casting’ through combination of observations and time–space
structure of rainfall.
• 1 hour – 2 weeks: Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) based on output from
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which includes convective and non-
convective precipitation and thunderstorm probability.
2. Forecasting of seasonal rainfall either via indices or seasonal forecasting models
such as POAMA.
3. Climate projections of future rainfall amounts and distribution.
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Use non-sequential model-data assimilation and rainfall reanalysis to develop better
historical gridded precipitation surfaces, using multiple sources of information
including streamflow observations.
• Effectively blend gauge, radar and satellite rainfall observations in real time to
provide accurate initial condition for numerical weather prediction.
• Model data assimilation including forward modeling, error characterisation and
quality control to incorporate rainfall (satellite, radar, gauges etc ) and moisture
observations into the initial state of dynamical prediction models.
• Improve the representation of microphysical processes within the framework of
ACCESS to improve precipitation prediction.
• Utilise land surface soil moisture observations to improve numerical weather
prediction modelling.
• Down-scale ensemble rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction to scales
appropriate for hydrological forecasting.
• Characterise the errors structure of dynamical precipitation prediction and down
scale ensemble.
OUTCOMES
• Reduced uncertainty in rainfall inputs to national water accounting through reliable
spatial patterns and accuracy of historical rainfall data products.
26
• Better precipitation forecasts and realtime rainfall observations for use in
streamflow forecasting.
KEY OUTPUTS
• Observations and short-term forecasts of precipitation amount and intensity in
regions of hydrological importance.
• New gridded rainfall products (including quantified errors).
• Daily to weekly ensemble forecasts of rainfall suitable for use in streamflow
forecasting applications.
CAPABILITIES REQUIRED
• Expertise in all methods of rainfall observation
• Expertise in spatial and temporal structure of precipitation
• Statistical analyses and modelling
• NWP, especially using NWP to forecast rainfall
• Spatial and temporal interpolation of rainfall observations
• Data assimilation methods suitable for rainfall
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Improved methods for deriving historical spatial patterns of rainfall will be
embedded within existing operational systems for producing gridded rainfall
products. These products, along with realtime observations will be embedded
within operational streamflow forecasting. Improvements to NWP will be developed
with CAWCR for embedding in ACCESS.
27
Improved estimation and prediction of actual evapotranspiration (ET)
DESCRIPTION
Observation and prediction of land surface actual ET
is available from 3 sources:
1. Direct observations by eddy covariance
towers of spatially averaged actual ET fluxes
at fine time scales (hourly) but over a small
area (~1km2).
2. Spatial estimates of actual ET from high resolution surface energy budget as used in
land surface schemes of NWP models. This accounts for latent and sensible heat
fluxes, heat storage in biomass, and the role of turbulence in scalar transport, but
accumulates scaling errors arising from the coarse scale of atmospheric modelling.
3. Spatial estimates of actual ET from models that are less complex and data intensive,
but of higher spatial resolution and flexible enough to be directly constrained by a
variety of observations. This includes:
o One or two-layer surface energy balance methods where a simplified land
surface scheme is represented by one or two sources of sensible and latent
heat fluxes.
o ‘Empirical’ scaling models which utilise some measure of ‘potential’ ET
based on meteorological conditions and then scale this to actual ET based on
a coefficient determined from plant type (e.g. a ‘crop factor’ expressed as a
function of vegetation, soil moisture content or soil moisture availability).
Apart from computational efficiencies the advantage of these latter methods is their ability
to utilise other surface observations such as streamflow, in situ soil moisture networks,
remote sensing observations (land surface temperature and NDVI) and eddy covariance
observations constrain the model.
INNOVATION NEEDED
• Develop new methods for estimating soil moisture through remote sensing such as
optical, thermal and microwave observations
• Develop new methods for estimating actual ET constrained by multiple observations
including satellite observations, flux towers, hydrological data and direct soil
moisture profiles
28
• Characterize uncertainty in actual ET estimation through inter-comparison of actual
ET methods and through model ensemble estimates.
• Improve ET representation in climate modelling, and develop method for down-
scaling climate model output of ET to scales appropriate for hydrological
applications.
• Gaining access to an increased range of ecosystems, catchments, and climates
observed by direct flux measurement methods will facilitate the
calibration/validation of model-data assimilation schemes.
OUTCOMES
• Reliable estimation of a key input to water balance studies and hydrological
modelling, resulting in better constrained estimates of inflows, river losses and
recharge.
• Better forecasts of soil moisture status as initial conditions for better weather
forecasting and rainfall-runoff response forecasting.
• More accurate and finer scale estimates of spatial actual ETare required to constrain
surface water balance modelling.
KEY OUTPUTS
• High quality gridded daily actual ET products, including quantified uncertainty
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Spatial hydrology
• Earth observation and remote sensing
• Model-data fusion and statistical classification techniques
29
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Improved methods for deriving historical spatial patterns of actual ET will be
embedded within existing operational systems for producing gridded estimates of
actual ET products.
Remote sensing of water storages and inundation
DESCRIPTION
Improved information on the extent of inundation
of water bodies is needed to better characterise
the evaporative losses from open water (including
large storages, private storages, floodplains and
wetlands), the runoff interception behaviour of
private storages and the extent and propagation of
flooding.
Evaporation from permanent and ephemeral
water bodies has been identified as one of the greatest uncertainties in estimating river
system losses. Farm dams are an intercepting activity to be managed under the NWI,
requiring information on the current state and trends in the total volume and distribution of
storages. Currently farm dam mapping is done by eye and hand, which is cost-prohibitive for
recurrent mapping of large areas. River gauging is often scarce or absent in Australia’s drier
interior, and here remotely sensed observations, river extent and floodplain inundation
provide important hydrological information on the progression of large floods. Flood
warning and environmental management require detailed information on the area
inundation under different flow conditions. This information has been developed for small
parts of Australia only (e.g. the River Murray Floodplain Inundation Model).
Reliable remote sensing techniques exist for open water mapping at different scales.
However, as demonstrated by the costly farm dam mapping exercises, there is a trade-off
between accuracy, frequency of mapping, and spatial detail in mapping. Methods of open
water mapping from remote sensing can occur principally through integration of
complementary remote sensing data sources that, when combined, allow open water
mapping with high resolution in time and space with high confidence.
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• An operational open water detection system that produces daily updates on
inundated areas at 500-1000 m resolution in near-real time.
• An operational technology and methodology for recurrent detailed water body and
farm dam mapping and volume estimation at finer scale.
• Developing these data types requires development of unsupervised remote sensing
classification and mapping algorithms.
30
OUTCOMES
• Reducing the uncertainty in water accounts, through better understanding of
wetland and water body losses and runoff interception by farm dams.
• Improve the spatial detail and accuracy of streamflow, flood and inundation
forecasts.
• Provide valuable information for environmental managers (e.g. to plan
infrastructure works or plan environmental releases).
KEY OUTPUTS
• Methodology and algorithms for operational detection and monitoring of inundated
areas at various spatial scales.
• Archived open water coverage products for development and parameterisation of
forecasting models.
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Remote sensing interpretation
• Model-data fusion and statistics
• Data standards and data delivery
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• The algorithms developed will be embedded in operational earth observation
systems within the Bureau
• Operational application of the new methodologies will be undertaken by staff, either
within the Bureau or within an operational spatial analysis group, to update maps of
small storages
• Recurrent mapping of private storages may be relevant to compliance monitoring
processes.
31
7.3 Stream 3: Water Accounting and Assessment
OVERALL OBJECTIVE
To properly manage and share our limited water resources, it is essential that we accurately
account for how much water is available (temporally and spatially) and how water is used.
We need a consistent, robust and agreed accounting framework and system that can be
applied across Australia. We also need to be able to quantify the impacts of various drivers
on water resources to inform policy-making.
The Bureau will be required to routinely deliver a comprehensive set of water accounts for
the nation. The national Water Accounting Development Committee has identified the need
for developing standards for:
• Water market accounting
• Water use accounting
• Water resources accounting
• Water for the environment accounting
The standards set the benchmark for reliable water accounting to serve a range of users.
Water accounting system design, methods and technique development needs to be based
on best-practice natural resource accounting principles and hydrological and water resource
sciences. The methods and techniques include the use of statistical analysis and hydrological
modelling to effectively use available data and provide estimates of quantities. To deliver
water accounts in a timely manner, computing tools are essential to integrate the water
accounting system into the Australian water resources information system.
Water accounts report on the current status of the nation’s water resources and patterns of
water use. Over time, water accounts can be used to identify changes in water resource
conditions and water use. Further analyses can be carried out to understand the causes and
implications of the changes. The cause and effect relationships are in turn useful for
improving water accounting methods, as many quantities need to be inferred from limited
or non existent data by using established quantitative relationships. Continuing
improvement to accounting methods and techniques is also important as technologies for
monitoring, data collection and processing continue to leap forward.
The objective of R&D in this stream is to design water accounting standards and systems
based on user needs and best-practice natural resource accounting principles, develop
methods and techniques based on the best available science, and develop computing tools
for integrating the water accounting system into the Australian water resources information
system. The R&D is also to provide research analyses and tools for understanding key cause
and effect relationships for changes in water resources conditions and implications.
32
This stream consists of the following areas of R&D:
• Integrated water resource accounting and assessment
• Groundwater
• Catchment water balance
• Water in rivers and storages
• Water extraction, usage and entitlement accounting
Integrated water resources accounting and assessment
DESCRIPTION
Water resources accounting keeps track of
opening and closing balances of the different
water stores and flows to and from these stores.
Key challenges for reliable accounting of water
resources include how to best use sparse and
partial observations and how to provide
estimates for ungauged catchments. Use of
modelling, remote sensing and other data will be
needed for inferring quantities not directly measured. The issue of multiple scales of final
reporting and intermediate accounting also needs to be addressed. There is a strong need
for an accounting tool to integrate with the national hydrological geofabric and data systems
so that annual water accounts can be produced in a timely manner. In addition, water
accounting needs to ensure that relevant information is included on environmental water.
Closing the water balance is fundamental to water resources accounting. Water balance
needs to be achieved within catchments, groundwater systems, rivers and storages, and for
the overall system. This means that the water balance needs to account for the complex
interactions between these components, and in turn avoid double counting. As many of the
water balance terms need to be inferred indirectly from limited data or no data, water
balance closure presents a significant challenge. Quantification of uncertainties is important
to understanding the accuracy of water balance estimation.
With the development of a water resources accounting system, there is the opportunity to
adopt the methods and techniques for analysing historical changes in water resources. As
water accounts will be produced overtime in the future, similar analyses can also be carried
out. The research will further identify and quantify cause and effect relationships of changes
in water resources conditions (such as the impact of land cover change, plantation, farm
dams, water management and climate change). This will allow systematic learning from past
experience, preparation for future threats, and informed decision-making. In addition, the
cause-and-effect relationships identified can be used to improve future water accounting as
many quantities need to be inferred from very limited or no data by using established
relationships.
Integrated water resources covers generic aspects of water resources accounting including
common techniques, integration and analyses. Issues and innovation needs specific to
33
groundwater, catchment water balance and water in rivers and storages are covered in more
detail under subsequent sections.
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Develop, under the guidance of the NWC national Water Accounting Development
Committee, a national water resources accounting framework describing the
required variables, scales, prioritisation, standards.
• Decide at what spatial and temporal scales to collate data for the scales of water
account reporting.
• Develop robust techniques for data quality control and infilling data gaps (spatially
and temporally).
• Develop methods for combining point and spatial data, including the use of a range
of hydrological models.
• Develop approaches for integrated accounting of system components and their
interactions.
• Provide closure to water balance terms and quantify uncertainty.
• Reconcile water balance account with extraction, usage and entitlement accounts.
• Provide accounting information on water for the environment including key
indicators relevant for environmental assessment.
• Apply water resources accounting methods and techniques to the analysis of
historical changes in water resources. Develop key quantitative cause-and-effect
relationships of water resource changes, and produce reliable and consistent
methods for estimating the water resource impacts of key drivers such as climate,
land use and cover, plantations, farm dams, bushfires and irrigation.
• Integrate water resources accounting and assessment with the national hydrological
geofabric and data systems.
OUTCOMES
• Water management and water market informed by accurate and timely annual
water accounts.
• Water policy formulation and review informed by scientific understanding of
changes in water resource conditions and cause and effect relationships.
KEY OUTPUTS
• An integrated framework for accounting water resources at a basin scale.
• Methods for water balance closure and uncertainty estimation.
34
• A tool for national water accounting integrated with the national hydrological
geofabric and data systems.
• Methods for analysing historical changes in water resource conditions and
quantifying key cause-and-effect relationships.
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Natural resources accounting
• Surface and groundwater hydrology
• Spatial data
• Statistical analysis, modelling and reporting
• Computational modelling
• Software engineering
• Collaborators: eWater CRC, BRS, ABS, University of Melbourne
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Work under the direction of the national Water Accounting Development
Committee
• Work jointly with the Bureau and involve NWC, MDBC, states and other water
agencies
• Provide an accounting system for operation by the Bureau
• Undertake pilot studies
35
Groundwater
DESCRIPTION
Groundwater use represents approximately 18%
of water used nationally, but during dry periods, it
is the main source of water and over large areas is
the only reliable source of water. In terms of the
water balance accounting and water assessment,
groundwater is far more technically challenging
than surface water. Key issues are:
• The majority of groundwater use occurs in a small area, with little data and
knowledge of processes outside of that area;
• Groundwater processes are intrinsically linked to the hydrogeology and vary greatly
in different landscape settings;
• There is no equivalent long-term gauging data to which to compare groundwater
fluxes
• Groundwater fluxes are relatively small compared to groundwater storage
• Much of the groundwater storage is unusable for reasons of water quality or low
transmissivity
• Some groundwater resources result from paleo-recharge
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Develop a methodology for estimation of recharge for large areas that is
transparent, technically justified, flexible enough to be applied to different
hydrogeological settings and linked to variability of rainfall and surface water
diversions
• Develop methods for transferring recharge estimates across scales and across
regions. There are few studies of the impact of climate change upon groundwater
recharge in this country, and it is not feasible to study every aquifer in detail.
Simplified methods need to be found for projecting the change in recharge under an
altered future climate
• Develop and test a cost-effective and robust catchment-scale methodology for
determining the temporal exchanges of groundwater and surface water, which will
occur as a result of changes in groundwater pumping and climatic regimes
36
• Develop and test analytical/empirical-based methodologies for modelling of water
movement between surface water and groundwater when over-bank flooding
occurs
• Develop models to reliably estimate trends in groundwater salinity under various
imposed stresses. This will need to relate to detailed studies in a variety of
groundwater ‘types;’ such as dual-porosity limestones, inter-bedded sand/clay in
sedimentary basins, fractured rock systems, confined aquifers etc
• Detect salinity trends and develop methods to extrapolate to areas of poor or non-
existent data coverage. The capability and transferability to predict trends in areas
without instrumentation needs further research.
OUTCOMES
• Sustainable groundwater management based on reliable information about
groundwater resources and changes
KEY OUTPUTS
• A suite of methods and tools suitable for groundwater accounting and assessment of
different aquifers throughout Australia
• Understanding and quantification of changes in groundwater resources conditions
and cause-and-effect relationships
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Groundwater hydrology
• Groundwater and surface water interactions
• Spatial data
• Statistical analysis
• Computational modelling
• Software engineering
• Collaborators: Groundwater hydrology consultants, eWater CRC, state agencies
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Work under the direction of the national Water Accounting Development
Committee
37
• Work jointly with the Bureau and involve NWC, MDBC, states and other water
agencies
• Undertake pilot studies
Catchment Water Balance
DESCRIPTION
For accounting of surface water, reliable
estimates of inflows from ungauged catchments
are needed. Despite increased research efforts
in this area in the last decade, progress has been
slow. The use of improved regionalisation and
catchment classification methods, including
catchment similarity and ensemble modelling
approaches, can reduce uncertainty in runoff
estimates. New model structures that consider spatial variability and landscape connectivity
with integrated surface–groundwater modelling can improve estimates of runoff and other
variables (eg soil moisture, diffused groundwater recharge). The use of new data types, in
particular remote sensing, to constrain model parameterisations, can also improve runoff
estimates. For gauged streamflows, the accuracy of the gauges is often unclear. There is
also large uncertainty in the partitioning of rainfall into evapotranspiration, groundwater
recharge, catchment runoff, and changes in soil water storages that needs to be reduced by
using additional large-scale data within a suitable hydrological model.
Catchment water yields are impacted by many factors such as climate, land use and cover,
plantation and farm dams. Feedbacks between climate change and land use cover can
potentially impact on catchment water balance. The cause and effect relationships need to
be quantified through modelling and data analyses. These relationships are necessary for
improving water balance inference for ungauged catchments as well as for predicting
changes to water yields in the future under various climate and management scenarios
(Stream 4).
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Develop methods for estimating water balance at ungauged catchments using
improved regionalisation methods including catchment similarity and model
ensemble approaches.
• Develop and apply new model structures that consider subdaily rainfall variability,
spatial variability and landscape connectivity to improve estimates of runoff in
ungauged catchments.
• Develop methods for using new data types, in particular remote sensing, to improve
the partitioning of rainfall to ET, recharge to groundwater and runoff and their
spatial distribution for gauged catchments and to improve runoff estimation for
ungauged catchments.
38
• Improve surface and groundwater modelling in upland catchments that considers
surface landscape connectivity, groundwater connectivity and surface-groundwater
interactions.
• Develop system modelling and statistical analysis methods for quantifying impacts
on catchment water yields of climate, land use and cover, plantation, farm dams and
other drivers.
OUTCOMES
• Catchment land and water management informed by reliable accounts and
assessment of catchment water balance: rainfall, ET, net recharge to groundwater,
and importantly catchment runoff.
KEY OUTPUTS
• A suite of methods and tools suitable for catchment water balance accounting and
assessment of both gauged and ungauged catchments throughout Australia
• Understanding and quantification of changes in catchment water yields and cause
and effect relationships
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Hydrology
• Spatial modelling and remote sensing
• Statistical analysis
• Computational modelling
• Software engineering
• Collaborators: eWater CRC, State agencies, MDBC
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Work under the direction of the national Water Accounting Development
Committee
• Work jointly with the Bureau and involve NWC, MDBC, states and other water
agencies
• Provide an accounting system for operation by the Bureau
• Undertake pilot studies
39
Water in rivers and storages
DESCRIPTION
Accounting of flows and stores in river systems
(including irrigation distribution systems) is an
essential component of water resources accounting.
The water balance in river systems is affected by
many processes: regulation on water flows and
stores, diversions, losses to floodplains, wetlands,
exchanges with groundwater, direct evaporation
from the river and from storages, extraction by
pumping and floodplain harvesting, and irrigation return flows. Many of these terms are only
partially gauged or not gauged at all, and difficult to separate. They need to be inferred from
scientific and technical understanding augmented by remote sensing observation through
models. Currently river models are typically calibrated reach by reach, which tends to
propagate errors associated with gauging and metering directly into the water balance and
introduces unspecified and poorly quantified gains and loss terms. An integrated modelling
and optimisation approach is required for consistent modelling and interpretation and for
properly quantifying uncertainties in the different observation data and water balance
terms. Irrigation distribution systems and the anabranching lower sections of many inland
rivers tend to be highly complex, with high losses through seepage and evaporation and
incomplete gauging. Water accounting for irrigation poses further challenges due to the
many levels at which metering can occur, from bulk diversion off-takes to individual on-farm
pumps and storages. With programs for improved metering and observation technology,
water accounting will become more reliable in the future. Key indicators related to water for
the environment may need to be provided in water accounts, such as statistics on wetland
water storage and use, flood, inundation and environmental flow regime.
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Develop component models to estimate river water balance components that are
not directly measured: losses to floodplains and wetlands, groundwater exchanges,
direct open water evaporation from river and storages, un-metered extractions (eg
pumping and floodplain harvesting) and irrigation return flows. These models will
need to incorporate knowledge and data contained in the geospatial fabric
(groundwater hydrology, topography, surface water and surface–groundwater
connectivity), any ground data available, and remote sensing observations of
floodplain inundation and ET (from floodplain, wetlands and irrigated crops).
• Develop a river accounting technology (derived from river planning model
technology) that can account for the effects of regulation on water flows and stores,
that integrates direct metering and gauging with model-based estimates of terms
that are not directly measured.
40
• Develop ‘one-pass’ calibration technology that explicitly considers gauging, metering
and modelling errors and uncertainty and thereby minimises the propagation of
these errors in accounts and quantifies the uncertainties in different water balance
terms.
• Develop framework and methods for water balance accounting for irrigation regions
that considers different levels of metering and accounts for losses within the
distribution system.
• Develop methods to produce key statistics related to water for the environment.
Examples can include volumes entering, exiting and evaporating from wetlands,
occurrence and extent of floods and inundation, and statistics of environmental high
and low flows.
• Develop methods that will allow river water accounts to be used for the calibration
and initialisation of river models used in operational forecasting and long-term
prediction.
OUTCOMES
• Sustainable management of surface water resources informed by reliable accounts
and assessment of water in rivers, storages and irrigation distribution systems.
KEY OUTPUTS
• A suite of methods and tools suitable for river and storage water accounting and
assessment of river systems throughout Australia.
• Methods for estimating water balance terms from limited or no data.
• Understanding and quantification of critical uncertainties in river and storage water
accounting.
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Hydrology and water resources
• Irrigation
• Spatial modelling and remote sensing
• Statistical analysis
• Computational modelling
• Software engineering
• Collaborators: eWater CRC, State agencies, MDBC
41
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Work under the direction of the national Water Accounting Development
Committee
• Work jointly with the Bureau and involve NWC, MDBC, states and other water
agencies
Water extraction, usage and entitlement accounting
DESCRIPTION
The Bureau will be required to produce annual
national water accounts. The publication of
three national water accounts by the Australian
Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the completion of
Australian Water Resources 2005 laid the
foundations for future water accounting. A
national Water Accounting Development
Committee has been set up by the National
Water Commission to guide the development of
future national water accounts. Water management in Australia is moving to continuous
accounting of water entitlement, allocation, carrying-forward, water trade, and water use.
Registers and metering programs are becoming more comprehensive. Thus, water
accounting methods are likely to evolve over time. The methods will also need to be
different for accounting at different scales such as national, state and regional. Both
aggregation and sampling will need to be employed.
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Develop, under the guidance of the national Water Accounting Development
Committee, a national water accounting framework – variables, scales, prioritisation,
and standards.
• Adapt financial accounting methods for water extraction, usage and entitlement
accounting.
• Develop methods for efficient data collection and collation.
• Quantify uncertainty.
• Integrate water accounting tool with the national hydrological geofabric and data
system.
OUTCOMES
• Accurate and timely annual water accounts for decision making.
• A repeatable and auditable process of accounting.
42
KEY OUTPUTS
• An annual accounting system for water extraction, usage and entitlement.
• Statistical techniques to inform the design of metering programs.
• Methods for data collection and collation.
• Methods for uncertainty estimation.
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Natural resources accounting
• Statistical design and analysis
• Hydrology
• Spatial science
• Collaborators: ABS, Bureau of Rural Sciences (BRS), University of Melbourne
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Work under the direction of the national Water Accounting Development
Committee
• Work jointly with the Bureau, NWC, MDBC, states and other water agencies
• Provide an accounting system for operational deployment by the Bureau
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Stream 4: Water Forecasting and Prediction
OVERALL OBJECTIVE
The Bureau has had a key role in weather forecasting and flood warning, however hydrologic
forecasting has to date been limited to flood events only. The Bureau’s new role will require
the development of tools for forecasting and predicting hydrologic variables in the short,
medium and long terms.
As well as for flood warning, continuous short-term forecasting of river flow can be used for
river operation to improve water use efficiency and environmental flow outcomes through
better release scheduling.
Medium-term forecasting (month to annual timescales) provides information required for
understanding effects of climate variation on flows and water demand, optimising water
management while managing risks, and informing water trading and water futures markets.
Long-term prediction or scenario generation (decadal timescales) assists with understanding
climate change effects and land use and land use change on water availability for the
development of policy on water supply and utilisation.
This stream will develop the science and technology required to achieve short-term,
medium-term and long-term of water forecast and prediction through research and
development investment in:
• Short-term river flow and flood inundation forecasting
• Seasonal inflow and water demand forecasting
• Long-term water resources prediction
Short-term river flow and flood inundation forecasting
DESCRIPTION
The Bureau currently provides flood warning
services to the country. An expansion to a
continuous river flow forecasting service can be
highly valuable for river operations to achieve
more efficient water use and better
environmental outcomes. A further expansion to
flood inundation forecasting is much needed for
effective flood emergency response and is also
eagerly anticipated by environmental flow managers.
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There is recognition that river flow forecasting can be significantly improved with increased
spatial data availability, better hydrological modelling capability, new model-data
assimilation methods, and more reliable weather forecasts. In particular, the Bureau is keen
to improve the utilisation of rainfall forecast, integrated with a range of related information
with different uncertainties. Rainfall radar provides much increased information on rainfall
patterns in space and time, but its full utilisation for flood forecasting is yet to be realised in
Australia. The utility of other remote sensing data such as soil moisture and ET for improving
river flow forecasting also needs to be further assessed.
Flash flood forecasting still poses a significant challenge for the forecasters, in particular for
areas not covered by rainfall radar. A related problem is river flow for ungauged catchments.
Some of the other issues include dealing with missing data during events and efficiently
combining data from different types of sensors, particularly rainfall, and model calibration
techniques.
New modelling developments will be required to extend the current flood forecasting
system into a system that is suitable for continuous streamflow forecasting and flow
forecasting in larger river systems, which require greater consideration of processes
influencing streamflow propagation (routing, storage and losses).
For developing the next generation of river flow forecasting system, grid-based hydrological
models have potential advantages in being able to better exploit spatial information in
gridded forecasting, radar and remote sensing data, but, lumped runoff models have the
advantage of parsimony and computational efficiency. Model-data assimilation technologies
for automated state updating, parameter estimation and bias correction have shown great
promise for improving forecasting skill, but challenges need to be addressed to make these
technologies sufficiently efficient and robust for operational applications. Computational
performance and forecasting skill in a parallel pseudo-operational setting will provide
objective measures by which to adopt extensions and enhancements of the existing
forecasting technology.
As the Bureau has a fully functional operational modelling system in place for flood
forecasting, R&D effort may be focused on both extending and enhancing capabilities of the
current modelling system and on developing innovative methods and techniques for the
next generation of modelling system. An evaluation framework is needed for assessing new
innovations objectively.
Flood inundation forecasting is much needed for effective flood emergency response. It is
also eagerly anticipated by environmental flow managers. The Bureau is considering
providing inundation forecasting in the future. There are a number of computer modelling
tools available for flood inundation simulation, ranging from simple one dimensional models
that can be loosely linked to flood maps, to fully or semi-two dimensional hydraulic models.
Flood maps based on a combination of digital elevation models and remote sensing and/or
aerial data on inundation provide a bench mark for hydraulic modelling in data rich
environments and a cost-effective alternative in extensive floodplains without such dense
data. Advances in airborne laser altimetry technologies allow the acquisition of accurate
digital terrain elevation models and inference of hydraulic roughness. Computational
techniques for flood inundation modelling have become more robust and efficient.
However, there are still many significant technical (and operational) challenges for flood
inundation forecasting, including the needs for parameterisation of physical properties of
river, floodplain and land surface, inundation data for model establishment, observation
networks for real-time operation, and coupling inundation modelling with hydrological
modelling.
45
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Develop an evaluation framework for assessing new innovations so that
improvements can be introduced in a rational way.
• Effectively utilise spatial data and ground observations (rainfall in particular) through
model-data assimilation, and develop procedures for dealing with missing data
during events.
• Develop improved model representation of sub-daily catchment runoff, soil
moisture and river routing.
• Integrate hydrological modelling with weather forecasting (rainfall in particular)
including from weather forecasters, numerical weather prediction and other sources
of information.
• Develop methods to quantify uncertainty and provide probabilistic forecast of river
flow.
• Develop methods for forecasting flash floods and for forecasting river flow in
ungauged areas.
• Enhance available tools for flood inundation modelling by coupling river flow
forecasting tools with inundation forecasting tools.
• Characterise and parameterise river and floodplain properties for inundation
modelling.
• Design complementary ground and remote inundation observation systems and
programs.
• Quantify uncertainty and provide probabilistic forecast of flood inundation.
OUTCOMES
• An improved flood warning system, leading to enhanced emergency response.
• Improved inflow forecasts for river operations, leading to efficient consumptive
water use and enhanced environmental outcomes.
• Establishment of a robust system for flood inundation warning, leading to effective
emergency response.
• Availability of critical flood inundation information for environmental flow planning
and operation to achieve desired environmental outcomes.
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KEY OUTPUTS
• Methods and tools for extending the current modelling system from flood
forecasting to continuous inflow forecasting.
• Methods and tools for enhancing forecast quality of current modelling system.
• Methods and technologies for the next generation of river flow forecasting systems.
• Modelling tools for estimating catchment water balance and for improving
hydrological representation in climate models.
• Modelling tools for flood inundation forecasting integrated with river flow
forecasting.
• Methods for river and floodplain parameterisation and for model-data assimilation.
• Design of an observation system (both ground and space based) and program for
flood inundation forecasting.
• A pilot application of flood inundation forecasting modelling.
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Hydrology
• Data assimilation and Statistical analysis
• Remote sensing
• Spatial data
• River and floodplain hydraulics
• Terrain analysis
• Computational modelling
• Software engineering
• Collaborators: Bureau, eWater CRC, CAWCR
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Work jointly with the Bureau flood forecasting and weather forecasting sections,
national, state and regional water agencies
• Initially focus R&D effort on developing technologies to enhance the capability of the
existing system
• Design inundation forecasting as part of a larger operational system
• Build on existing floodplain modelling results and products
• Adopt a common modelling platform agreed with the Bureau and others
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Seasonal inflow and water demand forecasting
DESCRIPTION
Skilled forecast of river inflow and water demand
several months and seasons ahead can be highly
valuable for water resources management. It can
be used to produce water allocation outlooks for
water users so that they can make informed
decisions. It can provide the water market with
information to facilitate water trading and thus
increase water use efficiency. It can also provide
vital information for government to prepare for
extreme drought and other situations. Methods have been developed to forecast inflows
using El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and antecedent flows as predictors based on the
fact that the teleconnection between Australia’s hydroclimate and (ENSO) is amongst the
strongest in the world. However, this relationship is not necessarily stationary over time.
Significant research is in progress in Australia in evaluation and further development of
dynamic climate models (POAMA/ACCESS) for seasonal climate forecasting.
Dynamic climate models provide the long-term potential for improved seasonal forecasts,
because they are not impacted by climate change. However, current climate models still
have relatively low skills for forecasting variables, such as rainfall, crucial for hydrological
applications. A growing trend internationally is to use statistical models to add value to
dynamical model forecasts, by taking from the models what they do well and statistically
connect to the variables the user needs. There is a need for a flexible modelling framework
for inflow forecasting that makes the best use of both historical observations and climate
modelling results. As climate model hind-casts may not go back as far as historical
observation, statistical methods need to be developed that can efficiently use non-
concurrent data sets. They also need to be able to deal with missing observations. The
framework needs to be able to provide probabilistic forecasting of inflows at multiple sites
that preserves inter-site correlation. This is important for a whole-of-system approach to
managing large water resources systems. Additionally, seasonal forecasting of spatially
distributed runoff, soil moisture, and water demand will be useful for agricultural and water
management planning. Seasonal forecasting of flood risks will be useful for emergency
preparation. As dynamic climate models further improve their forecast skills, it may warrant
the use of dynamic hydrological models to forecast river inflows from climate forecasts. This
may involve the development of downscaling for use in driving hydrological models. An
evaluation framework is necessary for quantifying the benefit of such an approach over the
statistical approach.
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Develop flexible, efficient and robust Bayesian statistical modelling methods and
tools capable of incorporating a range of predictors, such as seasonal forecasts of
climate variables based on climate modelling as well as direct observations, using
non-concurrent data and dealing with missing observations. This will allow dynamic
48
climate modelling to add value to statistical modelling to get the best forecast out of
all valuable results.
• Construct and cross-validate methods for providing probabilistic forecasts of inflows
at multiple sites, preserving inter-site correlations.
• Construct and cross-validate methods for providing probabilistic forecasts of
spatially distributed runoff and soil moisture, and probabilistic forecasts of flood risk
across Australia for several months to two years ahead.
• Investigate the potential and techniques for combining dynamic climate modelling
with dynamic hydrological modelling for inflow forecasts.
• Develop methods for seasonal forecast of water demand.
• Evaluate the value of seasonal forecast for water resources management.
OUTCOMES
• Skilled forecasting of inflows, spatially distributed runoff, and water demand leading
to better water resources management.
• Better risk management for water users and agricultural industry in general.
• Better flood emergency planning.
KEY OUTPUTS
• Skilled and widely applicable multi-site inflow forecasting model.
• Spatially distributed runoff and soil moisture, flood risk and water demand
forecasting models.
• Applications of seasonal forecast for water resources management.
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Hydrology
• Statistical analysis
• Seasonal climate modelling
• Irrigation science
• Software engineering
• Collaborators: CAWCR, eWater CRC, UNSW
49
PATH TO IMPACT/OPERATIONALISE
• Work closely with a wide range of potential users
• Demonstrate value of seasonal forecasting of inflows and water demand with
application examples.
Long-term water resources prediction
DESCRIPTION
Water resources in Australia and many parts of the
world are generally fully developed and allocated.
Increasing demands are being put on the limited
water resources by expanding urban populations,
irrigation and industrial water use, and the formal
inclusion of environmental water allocations.
Future water availability is likely to decrease due
to threats from climate change, afforestation,
bushfire regrowth, farm dam expansion and other drivers. As water is so critical to the
welling-being of our society, economy and environment, water policy needs to be
formulated and continually reviewed to prepare for and adapt to a changing water future.
The formulation and review of water policy needs to be based on credible science and
technical understanding of our future prospects of water resources.
The Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields project, currently being completed, represents
the most comprehensive study in Australia in understanding future changes and
uncertainties of water resources conditions. Climate scenarios of 2030 are constructed
based on IPCC 4AR global climate model simulations and global warming scenarios. Future
development in plantations, farm dams and groundwater development are considered.
Results from the project have highlighted that in much of the Murray-Darling Basin, there is
likely to be significant reduction in surface water and groundwater availability. However,
there is significant uncertainty in the estimation and the methods used can be improved
considerably.
While it is highly desirable to conduct similar studies for all significant regions in Australia on
a regular basis, technical and resource constraints mean that the methods and tools used for
the Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields project need to be adapted significantly for
wider and regular applications. In addition, there is significant scope to improve the methods
used in the project. It is also noted that much of the methods and tools to be developed for
water resources accounting and assessment are also useful for prediction. Thus, it is
anticipated that long-term prediction will be build on both the work of the Murray-Darling
Basin Sustainable Yields project and the proposed R&D on water resources accounting and
assessment.
INNOVATION REQUIRED
• Better characterise hydroclimatic variability and potential attribution of climate
change by analysing past hydroclimate using models, instrumental data and
50
paleodata, and quantifying causal relationships with variables such ENSO and related
SST and atmospheric indicators, IPO, CO2, and sunspots.
• Improve projections of climate, in particular rainfall, to drive hydrological models.
This includes quantification of uncertainties in GCM projections and downscaling
methods to provide catchment scale rainfall (with methods developed and tested in
the context of hydrological modelling and water resources applications). This
research is at the interface of climate and water, and is essential to focus the
development of climate products for water resources application needs.
• Evaluate and enhance methods for constructing future climate scenarios from
climate modelling results and other information, relevant for water resources
prediction.
• Develop reliable and consistent methods for projecting changes in other key drivers
for changes in water resources, such as land use and cover, farm dams, bushfires,
irrigation.
• Develop capacity to predict the consequences of changes in rainfall distribution,
climate and CO2 concentrations for runoff generation due to the influence of land
cover on hydrology.
• Adapt methods and models developed from the Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable
Yields project and those to be developed for water accounting and assessment of
surface and groundwater resources for predicting impacts on future water resources
of climate and other drivers.
• Develop a simplified approach for predicting the impact of climate change and
development on water availability and water uses across managed river systems.
This will build on the detailed Australian Hydrological Modelling Initiative (AHMI)
concept of a robust and defensible catchment yield – surface–groundwater
interaction – river system modelling approach that can be consistently applied
across jurisdiction and state boundaries.
• Quantify and reduce critical uncertainties in the prediction of long-term future water
resources.
• Develop an evaluation system for validating predictions and improving prediction
methods.
OUTCOMES
• Water policy formulation and review based on informed understanding of future
water prospects
KEY OUTPUTS
• Consistent methods and tools, that can be applied regularly and widely in Australia,
for predicting decadal water resource conditions and quantifying uncertainties
• An evaluation system for validating predictions and improving prediction methods
CAPABILITIES AND RESOURCES REQUIRED
• Foresighting and scenario planning
• Surface water and groundwater hydrology and resources
• Climate modeling
• Statistical analysis, modelling and reporting
• Spatial data
• Computational modelling
• Software engineering
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• Collaborators: eWater CRC, state agencies, MDBC, consultants
PATH TO IMPACT AND OPERATIONALISE
• Work jointly with the Bureau and involve NWC, MDBC, states and other water
agencies
• Provide a long-term prediction system for operation by the Bureau
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Table of acronyms
ABS Australian Bureau of Standards
ACCESS The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator
AWRIS Australian Water Resources Information System
BRS Bureau of Rural Sciences
CAWCR Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
CO2 Carbon Dioxide
ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation
ET Evapotranspiration
eWater CRC e Water Cooperative Research Centre
GCM Global Climate Model
HYDSYS Time series data management tool
IPO Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
MDBC Murray Darling Basin Commission
NDVI Normalised Difference Vegetation Index
NWA National Weather Association
NWC National Water Commission
NWI National Water Initiative
NWP Numerical Weather Prediction
POAMA Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia
QA/QC Quality Assurance/Quality Control
QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
UNSW University of New South Wales
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