Will Thin Films win in India?
Madhavan Nampoothiri
December 13, 2011Mumbai
Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion
Agenda
Thin Films – From Niche to Mainstream
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$70 $100 $250 $450 $70 $50 $35
6%
8%
10%
13%
18%
13%
Global Thin Film market share
Average Polysilicon spot price $/kg Thin Films % Share
Souce : Analysis based on GTM Research, iSuppli, Photon International and other sources
-Thin film market share increased when polysilicon prices went up, and vice versa.
- The decreasing price differential with c-Si is reducing cost competitiveness of TF
PV production – c-Si dominates
Source: GTM Research
-c-Si has large market share- In thin films, CdTe is the leader-a-Si not far behind- CIGS is makings its presence felt
-China has significant Thin Film capacity-Europe leads in Emerging technologies- a-Si leads in production capacity
North Amer-ica
Europe China/Taiwan Japan ROW0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Thin Film capacity in 2012(MW)
CdTe CIGS a-Si Emerging
Standard Crys-talline Si;
19767.5; 83%
Super Monocrys-talline Si; 919.5;
4%
CdTe; 1437.5; 6%
CIS/CIGS; 425.5; 2% Thin film Si; 1338.5; 6%
2010 Cell production by Technology(MW-dc)
Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion
C-Si dominates in production….
• JNNSM target – 4 to 5 GW of PV production capacity by 2022• Local content requirement in JNNSM(Phase 1)– C-Si : and Modules to be made-in-India– Thin films: No import restrictions
• No local content mandates in state policies
• C-Si Module manufacturing capacity ~ 1500 MW• C-Si Cell manufacturing capacity ~ 600 MW• Thin film manufacturing capacity – Negligible– Moser Baer, Shurjo Energy and HHV Solar
....but, Thin Film dominates in installations
Gujarat State policy- 60-70% thin films
-India bucks the global trend- Thin films grabbed more than 60% market share
Total IREDA NVVN
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Technology selection under JNNSM
C-Si Thin Films
Type of scheme
Inst
alla
tions
in M
S
India – a good export market for global TF companies
a-Si/μc-Si CIGS CdTe
Dupont USA MiaSolé USA First Solar USA
ECD/Uni-solar USA Q-Cells(Solibro) Germany Abound Solar USA
Masdar PV Germany SolarFrontier Japan
NexPower China
Schott Solar Germany
Sharp Japan
T-Solar Spain
-CdTe very popular, First Solar has high market share- a-Si, despite lower efficiencies, have seen lot of companies coming-CIGS also has takers
Note: The above is a partial list of TF companies in India
Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion
Growth Drivers
Technology-Temperature
coefficient-Spectral response
Financing- Ease of financing through
EXIM/ECB route
Cost- Lower module
cost - Inexpensive
land
1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?
3. What is driving the growth?a. Technology
4. What could happen?
Thin Film Vs c-Si
Advantages• Temperature coefficient• Better performance under
diffuse light conditions• Higher Energy Yield • Faster energy payback • Module grounding not
required for frameless modules
Disadvantages
• Conversion efficiencies• Area requirement• Higher BOS requirement• Breakage• Aging behavior not known• Materials shortage/toxicity
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 856%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
Efficiency drop at elevated temperatures
a-Si CdTe CIGS C-Si(Mono) c-Si(Multi)
Temperature(Deg C)
Ccon
vers
ion
efficie
ncy
Temperature coefficient – The TF USP..
- Efficiencies at STC(25 Deg C) is misleading, since that is rare in India- c-Si loses efficiencies faster
- Higher energy yield during peak season
Spectral response - Another differentiator
• Ability to absorb more light in the spectrum, especially junction a-Si
• Better performance under diffuse light Lesser shading effect• Higher energy yield
The result : Higher energy yield for TF
- TF consistently generating more electricity
Source: GTM Research
1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?
3. What is driving the growth?b. Costs
4. What could happen?
Module cost : C-Si closing in, but TF still maintains some advantage.
Jun-10Jul-1
0
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11Jul-1
1
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
0.650000000000002
0.850000000000001
1.05
1.25
1.45
1.65
1.85
2.05
Spot price(Euro/Wp)
Avg C-Si(Germany) Avg C-Si(Japan/Korea) Avg c-Si(China/Taiwan)CdTe Silicon Tandem(a-Si/Micro-Si) Amorphous Silicon
Euro
/Wp
Source: pvxchange.com
-CIGS price/Wp closer to c-Si
Land and BoS Costs – Disadvantage for Thin Films
BOS cost comparison : c-Si v CdTe
• Land requirement higher for Thin Films• BoS requirement higher because of lower efficiencies
Source: GTM Research$13,000 higher for Thin Film plant
Operations and Maintenance – Higher cost
• More exposed area – more cleaning, more manpower requirement
• More BOS ….–More Strings–More Fuses–More cable
…..more breakdown possibilities
Still….
• Overall cost lower than c-Si– Land cost in India is negligible– Higher BOS cost offset by lower module price– O&M Labor cost low
• Marketing mantra for TF– $/kWh and not $/Wp
1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?
3. What is driving the growth?c. Financing
4. What could happen?
Cost of Financing
• Project financing – very challenging to secure
• Indian banks are more comfortable with recourse-to-balance sheet financing
• EXIM, ECB banks offer attractive interest rates
• Even after hedging and insurance, cost of capital at 8-9% as against 13%+ for local financing
Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?
5. Conclusion
Thin films domination to continue
• JNNSM - Round 2 : 350 MW allotted– 300 MWp of projects will be in Rajasthan– At least 250 MW expected to go for thin films
• Gujarat – TF likely to dominate
• Rajasthan and Karnataka – TF likely to grab higher market share than c-Si
c-Si manufacturing will require stimulus
• Local content requirement objectives not likely to be met
• Indian c-Si manufacturers will be forced to reduce costs faster to remain competitive with TF
• Policy support critical to develop local PV manufacturing ecosystem
• Rooftop policies could help c-Si because of limited space
a- Si CdTe CIGS
Capital Investments*
$ 2.92 Million / MW $ 1.46 Million / MW $ 2.02 Million / MW
Project timeline 2.5 – 3 yrs 1.5 – 2 years ~ 2 Years
Cost Drivers Raw materials and consumables,CAPEX depreciation
Raw materials and consumables,CAPEX depreciation
Raw materials and consumables,CAPEX depreciation
* Excluding land cost
Will TF be manufactured in India?
-Long lead times and huge investments are challenges-Global excess production capacity is a major roadblock
Agenda
1. Introduction
2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?
3. What is driving the growth?
4. What could happen?
5. Conclusion
Takeaways..
• Thin film technology adopted by majority of Indian developers
• Yield, lower capital cost and better financing options driving TF growth in India
• Local content mandates have had limited impact• Global TF manufacturers benefitting from India’s
solar boom…• … but the Indian TF manufacturing ecosystem is yet
to evolve
Conclusion
• Global market dynamics will have huge impact on the technology selection
• If c-Si prices achieve parity with TF, c-Si will become more competitive
• As long as land is cheap, thin films will rule in India
May the technology with the best $/kWp Win!!
Thank you
Madhavan Nampoothiri
Energy Alternatives India
Mob: 98848-29214
www.eai.in
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