Thin film Solar Photovoltaics in India

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This is the presentation I made at the Intersolar India 2011 Conference held at Mumbai, India(www.intersolar.in).

Transcript of Thin film Solar Photovoltaics in India

  • 1. Will Thin Films win in India?Madhavan NampoothiriDecember 13, 2011Mumbai

2. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion 3. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion 4. Thin Films From Niche to Mainstream Global Thin Film market share 20%$500 -Thin film market share increased when 18% 18%$450 polysilicon prices went 16%$400 up, and vice versa. 14%$35013% 12%13%$300 - The decreasing price 10%10% $250 differential with c-Si is reducing cost8%$2008% competitiveness of TF6% 6% $1504%$1002%$50 $70 $100 $250 $450$70$500%$-2005 2006 2007 2008 20092010Average Polysilicon spot price $/kg Thin Films % ShareSouce : Analysis based on GTM Research, iSuppli, Photon International and other sources 5. PV production c-Si dominates2010 Cell production by Technology(MW-dc)CIS/CIGSThin film Si4261,3395%-c-Si has large market share2% CdTe 1,438- In thin films, CdTe is the leader Super 6% -a-Si not far behindMonocrystallin- CIGS is makings its presence felte Si Standard920 Crystalline Si4%19,768 83%Thin Film capacity in 2012(MW)-China has significant Thin Film 3000capacity 2500 2000-Europe leads in Emerging technologies 1500 1000- a-Si leads in production capacity 5000CdTe CIGS a-Si EmergingSource: GTM Research 6. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion 7. C-Si dominates in production. JNNSM target 4 to 5 GW of PV production capacity by 2022 Local content requirement in JNNSM(Phase 1) C-Si : and Modules to be made-in-India Thin films: No import restrictions No local content mandates in state policies C-Si Module manufacturing capacity ~ 1500 MW C-Si Cell manufacturing capacity ~ 600 MW Thin film manufacturing capacity Negligible Moser Baer, Shurjo Energy and HHV Solar 8. ....but, Thin Film dominates in installations Technology selection under JNNSM 120Gujarat State policy- 60-70% thin films 100 Installations in MS80604020 0 Total IREDA NVVNType of scheme C-SiThin Films-India bucks the global trend- Thin films grabbed more than 60% market share 9. India a good export market for global TF companiesa-Si/c-Si CIGS CdTeDupont USA MiaSol USAFirst SolarUSAECD/Uni-solar USAQ-Cells(Solibro) Germany Abound Solar USAMasdar PVGermany SolarFrontier JapanNexPower ChinaSchott Solar GermanySharpJapanT-SolarSpain Note: The above is a partial list of TF companies in India -CdTe very popular, First Solar has high market share - a-Si, despite lower efficiencies, have seen lot of companies coming -CIGS also has takers 10. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion 11. Growth DriversTechnology -Temperature coefficient -Spectral response Cost Financing- Lower module- Ease of cost financing- Inexpensive land through EXIM/ECB route 12. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth?a. Technology4. What could happen? 13. Thin Film Vs c-Si Advantages Disadvantages Temperature coefficient Conversion efficiencies Better performance under Area requirementdiffuse light conditions Higher BOS requirement Higher Energy Yield Breakage Faster energy payback Aging behavior not known Module grounding not Materials shortage/toxicityrequired for framelessmodules 14. Temperature coefficient The TF USP.. Efficiency drop at elevated temperatures 14% 13% 12%Cconversion efficiency 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 25 30 354045 5055 6065 7075 80 85 Temperature(Deg C)a-SiCdTeCIGSC-Si(Mono)c-Si(Multi)- Efficiencies at STC(25 Deg C) is misleading, since that is rare in India- c-Si loses efficiencies faster- Higher energy yield during peak season 15. Spectral response - Another differentiator Ability to absorb more light in the spectrum, especiallyjunction a-Si Better performance under diffuse light Lesser shading effect Higher energy yield 16. The result : Higher energy yield for TFSource: GTM Research- TF consistently generating more electricity 17. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth?b. Costs4. What could happen? 18. Module cost : C-Si closing in, but TF still maintains some advantage.Spot price(Euro/Wp)2.051.851.651.45Euro/Wp1.251.050.850.65Avg C-Si(Germany)Avg C-Si(Japan/Korea)Avg c-Si(China/Taiwan)CdTe Silicon Tandem(a-Si/Micro-Si)Amorphous Silicon-CIGS price/Wp closer to c-Si Source: pvxchange.com 19. Land and BoS Costs Disadvantage for ThinFilms Land requirement higher for Thin Films BoS requirement higher because of lower efficienciesBOS cost comparison : c-Si v CdTe $13,000 higher for Thin Film plant Source: GTM Research 20. Operations and Maintenance Higher cost More exposed area more cleaning, moremanpower requirement More BOS . More Strings More Fuses More cable..more breakdown possibilities 21. Still. Overall cost lower than c-Si Land cost in India is negligible Higher BOS cost offset by lower module price O&M Labor cost low Marketing mantra for TF $/kWh and not $/Wp 22. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth?c. Financing4. What could happen? 23. Cost of Financing Project financing very challenging to secure Indian banks are more comfortable with recourse-to-balance sheet financing EXIM, ECB banks offer attractive interest rates Even after hedging and insurance, cost of capital at 8-9%as against 13%+ for local financing 24. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion 25. Thin films domination to continue JNNSM - Round 2 : 350 MW allotted 300 MWp of projects will be in Rajasthan At least 250 MW expected to go for thin films Gujarat TF likely to dominate Rajasthan and Karnataka TF likely to grab higher marketshare than c-Si 26. c-Si manufacturing will require stimulus Local content requirement objectives not likely to be met Indian c-Si manufacturers will be forced to reduce costs fasterto remain competitive with TF Policy support critical to develop local PV manufacturingecosystem Rooftop policies could help c-Si because of limited space 27. Will TF be manufactured in India?a- Si CdTeCIGSCapital$ 2.92 Million / MW $ 1.46 Million / MW$ 2.02 Million / MWInvestments*Project timeline2.5 3 yrs1.5 2 years~ 2 YearsCost Drivers Raw materials and Raw materials andRaw materials and consumables,consumables, consumables, CAPEX depreciationCAPEX depreciation CAPEX depreciation * Excluding land cost -Long lead times and huge investments are challenges -Global excess production capacity is a major roadblock 28. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What could happen?5. Conclusion 29. Takeaways.. Thin film technology adopted by majority of Indiandevelopers Yield, lower capital cost and better financing optionsdriving TF growth in India Local content mandates have had limited impact Global TF manufacturers benefitting from Indiassolar boom but the Indian TF manufacturing ecosystem is yetto evolve 30. Conclusion Global market dynamics will have huge impacton the technology selection If c-Si prices achieve parity with TF, c-Si willbecome more competitive As long as land is cheap, thin films will rule inIndia 31. May the technology with the best$/kWp Win!! 32. Thank you Madhavan NampoothiriEnergy Alternatives IndiaMob: 98848-29214 [email protected]