Democracy and Economic Development
ERF 21st Annual Conference
Gammarth, TunisiaMarch 20-22, 2015
Lessons for Democratic Transition in the Arab World
Eva Bellin, Brandeis University, USA
Third Wave:About 90 countries have transitioned to democracy (1974-present)
Lessons: Factors that shape chances of democratization:• Economic development• Neighborhood• Professionalized Military• Robust Civil Society• Etc., etc., etc.
Limited Utility of Analysis:
• Factors are beyond control of policy maker• Factors are not deterministic
Radical Indeterminancy of Democratic Transition
Possibility of Choice!
Single Requisite Factor:
Presence of credible political elites/ “powerful players”
who are committed to democratization
Evidence from Paired Comparison of Egypt and Tunisia
Pivotal Role of Abbassi
GhannouchiMorsi
at critical junctures
Unique (?) Obstacles to Democratic Transitionin the Arab World
Overrated Obstacles:
1. Culture? (illiberal/ non-democratic)
• Cultural shift (historically) not a necessary pre condition for democratization
2. Religion?
• Religious accommodation is not inconsistent with democracy (e.g. Indonesia, Malaysia, EU countries)
3. Military?
• Many models of accommodation
Real obstacles?
• Gas and Oil Wealth• Security Threat/Climate of Fear
How to move forward & prevent backsliding?
1. Build Institutions of Accountability
• Electoral Commisions• Political Parties• Effective Judiciaries• Free Media• Public Audit Agencies
2. Cultivate Civil Society
• Watchdog function• Build dialogue and trust
3. Empower the people
• Harness popular self-interest to give institutional reforms roots
Mega Lesson of Third Wave
• The POSSIBLITY of transition in all terrain
Door is not closed on democratization in the Arab
world
Democracy and Economic Development
ERF 21st Annual Conference
Gammarth, TunisiaMarch 20-22, 2015