Lessons for Democratic Transition in the Arab World
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Transcript of Lessons for Democratic Transition in the Arab World
Lessons: Factors that shape chances of democratization:• Economic development• Neighborhood• Professionalized Military• Robust Civil Society• Etc., etc., etc.
Limited Utility of Analysis:
• Factors are beyond control of policy maker• Factors are not deterministic
Single Requisite Factor:
Presence of credible political elites/ “powerful players”
who are committed to democratization
Evidence from Paired Comparison of Egypt and Tunisia
Pivotal Role of Abbassi
GhannouchiMorsi
at critical junctures
1. Culture? (illiberal/ non-democratic)
• Cultural shift (historically) not a necessary pre condition for democratization
2. Religion?
• Religious accommodation is not inconsistent with democracy (e.g. Indonesia, Malaysia, EU countries)
1. Build Institutions of Accountability
• Electoral Commisions• Political Parties• Effective Judiciaries• Free Media• Public Audit Agencies