Investigating the Volume and Structure of Alcohol Consumption and their Impact on Life
Expectancy in Russian RegionsTatiana Kossova, PhD in Economics,Elena Kossova, PhD in Mathematics,
Maria Sheluntcova, PhD in Economics
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
www.hse.ru
This paper is an output of a research project implemented as part of the Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of
Economics (HSE)
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Consumption of alcohol in Russian regions
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What macroeconomic factors influence alcohol consumption in
Russian regions?
The priority of the government policy is to reduce alcohol
consumption
The volume and structure of alcohol
consumption continue to change
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Literature review
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Regional differences in alcohol consumption• Paper of Bränström & Andréasson (2008) for Sweden; Benčević-
Striehlet et al (2009) for Croatia; Ogwang & Cho (2009) for Canada, etc.
Macroeconomic factors influence alcohol consumption• Per capita income: paper of Chaix & Chauvin (2003) for France,
Ogwang & Cho (2009) for Canada, etc.• Unemployment: paper of Herzfeld et al (2014) for Russia,
Ogwang & Cho (2009) for Canada, Schnuerer et al (2013) for Germany, etc.
• Urbanization: paper of Klein & Pittman (1993) for the US, Schnuerer et al (2013) for Germany, Herzfeld et al (2014) for Russia, etc.
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Alcohol consumption and life expectancy in Russia
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Life expectancy gap between Russia and Western countries remains substantial
largely due to alcohol abuse in Russia
(Shkolnikov et al., 2013)
At least 1/3 of all deaths in Russia are directly or indirectly
associated with alcohol intake (Pridemore 2008;
Popov 2009)
Regions substantially differ from each other
on the volume of alcohol consumption and life expectancy
indicators
What is the relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality from external causes as well as life
expectancy in Russia?
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Per capita consumption of alcoholic beverages in 2008 - 2012
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National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Model specification and data
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• is the annual consumption (in litres) per-capita of a particular alcoholic beverage k in the i-th region in year t (i=1,...,78; t = 2008, 2009,..., 2012).
• The variables (s=1,...,7) represent macroeconomic determinants in the i-th regions in year t.Fixed effects panel regressions for absolute alcohol, vodka, beer, wine, for cognac and champagne together with sparkling wine.
Data source is the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia.
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Macroeconomic factors
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•Income per-capita (rubles)
•Per-capita consumption of electricity (thousands kWh)
•Provision with computers per 100 households
Economic development
and living standards
•Population size (thousands)
•Degree of urbanization (%)
Degree of urbanization
•Unemployment rate (%)
•Gini coefficient
Level of social tension
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Estimation results
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VARIABLES Ln(vodka) Ln(beer) Ln(wine)Ln(income_min) -0.130 0.252** -0.191*
(0.0941) (0.107) (0.112)Ln(energy_consumption) 0.288*** 0.580*** 0.271**
(0.0833) (0.112) (0.117)Ln(computers) -0.126***
(0.0339)Urbanization_rate 0.0188*** 0.0604***
(0.00659) (0.00951)1/population 0.380***
(0.0893) Unemployment_rate -0.00831 0.0207***
(0.00542) (0.00598)Unempl_rate *(year-2008) -0.00532*** -0.00427***
(0.000650) (0.000914)Gini_coefficient 2.375**
(1.059) Constant -0.685 3.604*** -2.721***
(0.613) (0.242) (0.732)Observations 390 390 390R-squared 0.314 0.115 0.207
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Life expectancy for men and women in Russia
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
1020304050607080
Life expectancy (men) Life expectancy (women)
Data source is the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Estimation results
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VARIABLES Ln(death) Ln(life_men) Ln(life_women)Ln(alcohol) 0.334*** -0.0346* -0.0219*
(0.101) (0.0198) (0.0116)
Ln(income_min) -0.286*** 0.0348*** 0.0152**
(0.0785) (0.0122) (0.00671)
Ln(computers) 0.0204*** 0.0106*** (0.00457) (0.00284)
Ln(meat) 0.0374** (0.0173)
Ln(sugar) 0.0370** (0.0154)
Ln(Unemployment_rate) 0.0345* -0.00346*(0.0204) (0.00184)
Ln(Unemployment_rate*(year-2008)) -0.0199*** 0.00256*** 0.00171***
(0.00208) (0.000407) (0.000234)
Gini_coefficient 2.215*** -0.235** -0.144**(0.795) (0.117) (0.0677)
Constant 3.836*** 3.874*** 4.350***(0.309) (0.111) (0.0373)
R-squared 0,57 0,75 0,78
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Conclusions on the volume & structure of alcohol consumption in Russia
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There is the general trend of reduction of alcohol consumption in Russia as a whole over 2008 - 2012
Vodka and beer are main alcoholic beverages consumed in Russia
The North of the European part of Russia and the Far East that are characterized by problem drinking
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Conclusions on macroeconomic factors
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Regions’ welfare & alcohol consumption: positive correlation
The unemployment rate affects the consumption of different types of alcoholic beverages in a different way
Urbanization & alcohol consumption: positive correlation. Sparsely populated regions are characterized by higher alcohol consumption
National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2015
Conclusions on alcohol consumption & life expectancy in Russia
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We confirm positive relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality from external causes in Russian regions
The average life expectancy, other things being equal, is lower in regions where alcohol consumption is high. This effect is stronger for men than for women
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