Copyright © 2018
2018 DDLA Annual MeetingTrump Ocean Club Panama City, Panama February 21, 2018
Global Maritime Vessel &
Trade Trends (Impacting North American Ports)
Copyright © 2018
Expect the Global Maritime Trade
Volume to Double by 2030
“In the next 10-15 years world trade
is projected to grow significantly.
It is estimated that this growth will
result in a doubling of seaborne
trade volumes from 10 billion tons
of cargo annually today to 20 billion
tons of cargo around 2030”.
Source: Danish Maritime Forum, 24-28 October 2016
Copyright © 2018
Three Mega Trade Trends to 2030
Global population is likely to be 8.5 billion by 2030, with
96% of growth coming from developing countries. India
will overtake China with the largest population.
Global GDP could grow THREE TIMES within 20 years.
The countries with the largest growth in per capita
GDP will be China, Vietnam, India and Indonesia.
Purchasing power in developing Asia will rise 8 times
between 2010 and 2030.
40% HIGHER ENERGY DEMAND in 2030. China oil
consumption could triple, overtaking the USA to
become the largest oil consumer. The USA will remain
the biggest natural gas consumer, while China will see
the largest growth in natural gas consumption.
Source: Global Marine Trends 2030 – QinetiQ – Lloyd’s Register
Copyright © 2018
The Evolution of
Today’s Global
Shipping Lanes
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
The Maritime Silk Road Replaced the
Overland Silk Road as the Primary
Trading Route Across Eurasia After
the Tang Dynasties (618 to 907)
Copyright © 2018
The Marine Silk Road was a Precursor to:
Today’s modern supply chain logistics, distribution
and shipping transportation networks
Copyright © 2018
90% of Global Trade is Carried Out by Shipping
The Majority of Today’s Ocean Trade is
Conducted on the Marine Silk Road
Copyright © 2018
The World’s Primary Shipping Route:
The Marine Silk Road
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Maersk’s Global
Trading Routes Today
Copyright © 2018
Indian Ocean Electric Blue Shipping Lane Trails
From the Marine Silk Road
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The World’s Largest Ports Are Connected
Via The Marine Silk Road Where are the Biggest Ports?
Copyright © 2018
On Earth, There Are More People Living
Inside This Circle Than Outside the Circle
The World’s Largest Ports Are Connected
Via The Marine Silk Road
Copyright © 2018
NASA’s Population Density Imagery
A standard dot density map of population (each dot represents 50,000 people).
Copyright © 2018
Global Shipping Routes Plotted by AIS GPSToday’s Busiest Shipping Routes:
(1) Panama Canal, (2) Suez Canal, (3) Offshore China
Source: Wired Science January 2010 Journal of the Royal Society: Interface
Copyright © 2018
International
External Industry
Pressures Driving
Today’s Logistics
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
More than 98% of everything we
consume, wear, eat, drive and construct
is brought to us via ships through the
North American port system.
Copyright © 2018
Growth in GDP and World Trade
Source: Oxford Economics 2013
World trade will grow by 73% in the next 15 years. With merchandise trade
volumes in 2025 hitting $43.6 trillion compared to today’s $27.2 trillion
CAGR = 4.5%
Copyright © 2018
World Trade’s Share of the Economy
Grows Again
Source: IHS Global Insight – World Trade Service
% INCR = 37%
Copyright © 2018
Long Term GDP Annual Growth Rates
Source: OECD Economic Forecast
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
World
United States
Canada
Copyright © 2018
International Maritime
Cargo Demand &
Logistics Trends
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
2025 World Container Port Market Demand(Millions of TEUs)
Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants
260%
Increase
2009
Recession
Copyright © 2018
Southeast Asian
Manufacturing Centroid Shift Current Inbound US Cargo Flow
U.S. Intermodal Rail Flow
U.S. Intermodal Rail Flow
WesternCentroidShift
WesternCentroidShift
Westbound All Water/Suez FlowWestbound All Water/Suez Flow
Westbound Intermodal U.S. FlowWestbound Intermodal U.S. Flow
With Manufacturing Centroid Shifts Into Vietnam
and/or India, The North American East Coast will
See Dramatically More Westbound Suez Traffic
Copyright © 2015
Copyright © 2018
Suez Canal’s $8.5 Billion Expansion Plan(A New $4 Billion 45-mile-long parallel channel and Global Logistics Park)
3 Daily Convoys:
2 Northern Convoys
1 Southern Convoy
Copyright © 2018
New 45-mile-long parallel channel cutting waiting times to transit by 3 hrs. from 11 hrs.
The Suez Canal’s $8.5 Billion
Expansion of the Canal
Completed September 2015
Copyright © 2018
Dredging 180 Million Cubic Meters
(35-kilometers-long and 24-meters-deep)
Shipping Route in Less than One Year
Copyright © 2018
Egyptian Jet Fighter Escort Selfie(Taken with the New Expanded Suez Canal in the Background)
Source: Photo Courtesy of MIRASCO, August 2015
Copyright © 2018
The Number of Ships Able to Navigate the
Suez Canal Simultaneously Has Increased
from 23 to 97, Thus Doubling the
Suez Canal Capacity by 2023
Copyright © 2018
The Continuing Asian
Import Trade
Challenge
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
Container Transhipment World Records
Of the 10 busiest ports in the world,
Nine are in Asia, of the top 10, Six
are on the Chinese mainland
The Port of Shanghai is No. 1, and
The Port of Singapore is No.2
These Two Ports are Larger Than All
North American Ports Combined
Copyright © 2018
Shanghai International Shipping Center
Yangshan Deep Port & Logistics Park
54 New Berths
New Logistics Park
New Port City
20 Mile New Port Access
Bridge Constructed in 3 yrs
Copyright © 2018
Shanghai International Shipping Center
Yangshan Deep Port - 20 Mile Bridge Access
“Second Longest Ocean Bridge in the World”
Copyright © 2018
Shanghai Yangshan Deep-Water HarbourYangshan Deep Port – 54 Berths East China Sea
Copyright © 2018
Shanghai International Shipping Center
Yangshan Deep Port & Logistics Park
Shanghai Port Set a 2011 Record by Handling over 30 million TEUs
Copyright © 2018
Maritime Vessel
Technology Trends:
Emergence of the
Neo-Panamax Vessel
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
40 Years of Container Ship Size Growth (TEU Capacity)
Source: HIS Maritime & Trade Historical Vessel and Orderbook Data
NEO PANAMAX
As of June 2016
OLD PANAMAX
Up to June 2016
ULCS CONTAINER SHIP
Circa 2020
Copyright © 2018Source: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty - Data: Container-Transportation.com
50 Years of Container Vessel Evolutionary Growth
Neo-Panamax:
12,600 TEUs
Old Panamax:
4,800 TEUs
Near Term Mega Vessel: 22,000 TEUs
Copyright © 2018
Largest Container Ship Yet to Call on
the Port of Virginia – May 8, 2017
COSCO Development Container Ship – 13, 092 TEUs
Copyright © 2018
May 8, 2017 Largest Container Vessel
to Call at the Port of Virginia
Containership COSCO DEVELOPMENT at 1,200 feet long and 158 feet wide, It is
100-plus feet longer that the U.S. Navy’s newest aircraft carrier the Gerald R. Ford
COSCO Development Container Ship – 13, 092 TEUs
Copyright © 2018
Relative Size of the Mega Container Vessel
COSCO
Develop
COSCO DEVELOPMENT
Largest Ship to Call at the
Port of Virginia, May 2017
Copyright © 2018
‘Megamax’ Containership Deliveries of
18,000 to 22,000 TEUs
2018 – First delivery of a 22,000 TEU ship - The highest year on
record for ULCV deliveries - 1.12 million TEU booked for delivery.
2018
Copyright © 2018
Vessel Sharing Alliances Were
Restructured Late April 2017(Ocean Alliance to Dominate the Overall Trans-Pacific Trade)
Source: Alphaliner – JOC - IHS Maritime & Trade
Three alliances will control 91 % of the US trade volume
US ports will face unprecedented operational challenges.
Copyright © 2018
The Biggest Ship Ever in San Francisco Bay
CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin
1,300 ft. LOA , 177 ft. beam, 18,000 TEUs
Source: CMA CGM, The SF Chronicle
Copyright © 2018
The Biggest Ship Ever in San Francisco Bay
CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin
1,300 ft. LOA , 177 ft. beam, 18,000 TEUs
Source: CMA CGM, The SF Chronicle
Copyright © 2018
South Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries:OOCL Mega Ships 21,100 TEU to be delivered November 2017
Six ordered at 21,100 TEU, total cost of US$950 million.
The contract also includes options for six additional units.
Copyright © 2018
Maersk’s Triple E Container Ship1.5 times the Size of the NEW Panama Canal
Wide Body Shallow Draft 18,000 TEU Vessel (Same Design Draft of the 8,000 TEU Susan Maersk)
(Design Draft of 14.5 Meters = 47.57 feet)
Copyright © 2018
MSC Orders 11 New 22,000-TEU Vessels
CMA-CGM Orders 9 New 22,000-TEU Vessels
Source: American Shipper - Lloyd’s List
FUEL COST OPTIONS: $136 million per vessel if a conventional fuel
system with scrubbers is chosen, or about $154 million should a dual-fuel
alternative – which would allow for the use of LNG – be selected instead.
Copyright © 2018
CMA CGM Orders 9 New 22,000-TEU Vessels
Source: American Shipper - Lloyd’s List
CMA CGM Group’s US$1.5 billion order for nine LNG Powered
22,000-TEUs container ships for delivery from the end of 2019.
Asia-Europe trade may be set for 24,000 TEU ships from 2019
Copyright © 2018
Next Generation: Suezmax 26,000 TEUs26 Bays, 25 Rows - Ultra Large Container Ships (ULCS)
Source: DNV GL in-house methodology - “Concept Design Assessment”
With a Beam of 25 rows & Length of 26 bays
(LOA: 430 meters – 1,411 feet)
the ULCS capacity could reach 26,300 TEU.
Port of Antwerp: New Terminals in Europe
are using 26,000 TEU design vessels
Copyright © 2018
Mega Container Ship
Design & Dangerous
Sea States
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
The Rogue Wave(Predicting Freak Colossal Episodic Waves)
Copyright © 2018
Largest Vessel Recorded Rogue Wave Height:
98 feet high, from crest to trough. The biggest
recorded by a buoy was 106 feet high during the
2007 typhoon Krosa near Taiwan
Copyright © 2018
100,000 Deadweight Ton Liquid Bulk
Tanker Fights for Survival in 60 foot Waves
Current Design Vessel
Criteria: 56 foot wave
above the Vessel
Waterline (from wave
trough to crest)
Copyright © 2018
Global Wave Model GROW2012:
5,000 instances of extreme sea conditions where
waves were higher than 12 meters (39 feet).
Highest average waves were more than 18 meters
(59 feet) and occurred in the North Atlantic and
North Pacific oceans.
Copyright © 2018
Rena Containership Wedged on a Reef in the
Bay of Plenty, New Zealand - October 2011
Copyright © 2018
8,000-TEU MOL Ship Sank in Bad Weather,
Indian Ocean 200 Nautical Miles Off Yemen
Copyright © 2018
Examples of Emerging Port
Technologies to Improve
Port Performance
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
Vessel Size Expansion - Terminal Impacts(Port Terminal Infrastructure & Equipment Geometry Impacts)
Source: Georgia Ports Authority and Vickerman & Associates
New Panamax (2014/15)
12,600 TEU
Current Panamax
4,800 TEU
Super Post Panamax
18,000 to 22,000 TEU
Boom Outreach
Depths 48 to 54 ft
Storage Area Impacts
Height Above Deck
Increased Terminal Throughput
Copyright © 2018
Increased STS Gage Improves Stability, Reduces Wheel Loads,
Decongests the Quay Operations and Improves Productivity
Source: Liftech Consultants Inc.
95-100
115
138
STS Gage
Req. in Ft.
15046 m13-14
Tandem Lift 40 ft.
Tandem STS
Operations
STS Gage
Copyright © 2018
Terminal 3 Jebel Ali Dubai Container Terminal (U.A.E.) (STS Gantry Crane Gage=42 m = 137.8 ft) Approaching 150 ft. Gage
The remote STS operation at the DP World’s
T3 Terminal has demonstrated that the
operator’s views in the control room from
crane-mounted cameras are better and more
comprehensive than those from the crane
cab.
The cranes operate fully automated once their
spreaders reach a predetermined height
above the shipboard stack profile.
STS Crane Operations from
Remote Control Room
Copyright © 2018
The Energing 150 ft. Gage Semi-Automated STS
Gantry Cranes ConsiderationsConsider spreader capability to lift
tandem, triple, quad & 6 pack loads
Consider / Evaluate Dual Hoist STS Gantry Cranes with
Cable Reel Flexible Power:
Copyright © 2018
✓ Eliminates the need for mooring lines with automated vacuum pads
that moor and release vessels in seconds.
✓ Dramatically improves safety and operational efficiency,
✓ Optimizes the ship-to-shore interface, and in many cases enables Port
terminals to make infrastructure savings.
Port of Salalah, Oman has successfully used a vacuum mooring system for
years. The vacuum system extends from the quay and locks onto the ship.
Emerging Automated Mooring System Advantages
MoorMaster™
Automated
Mooring
System
Copyright © 2018
Cavotec Published Benefits
1. Moor vessels in 30 seconds, detach in 10 seconds.
2. Reduced OPEX, (fuel burn, manpower operational time and maintenance)
3. Increased container throughput due to reduced vessel motion, (berth creep,
long waves, passing vessels, etc.).
4. Improved STS crane productivity.
5. Improved operator and ship crew safety.
6. 90% reduction in emissions during mooring due to reduced tug and vessel
engine usage.
Emerging Automated Mooring System Advantages
Copyright © 2018
North American Inland
Waterway Vessel Evolution Emerging Container On Barge (COB)
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018Source: USDOT Maritime Administration MARAD
“Deck” Barge Loaded with Containers
“Hopper” Barge Loaded with Containers
Copyright © 2018
Proposed Domestic AMH/Short Sea Container Services
Proposed New England Marine Highway Project's articulated tug barge short
sea container service connecting New York City and Portland, Maine - 900
TEUs
Proposed MARAD ATB Ro/Con – HEC Design - 886 TEUs, Design
Draft 14.1 ft. – 14 Knots
Copyright © 2018
A “State of the Art” Hull Design to Ensure Optimal Speed in All
River Conditions Utilizing LNG as Main Propulsion Fuel
American Patriot Holdings, LLC (APH)
Prototype Container Vessel
Copyright © 2018
American Patriot Container Transport, LLC.
(APCT)Vessel Fleet Characteristics
LOA Feet Beam Feet TEU Capacity Vessel Drafts
592 100 1824 9.0 ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft.
772 100 2392 9.0 ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft.
952 100 2960 9.0 ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft.
1042 100 3244 9.0 ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft.
Copyright © 2018
American Patriot Holdings, LLC (APH)
Prototype Container Vessel
A “State of the Art” Hull Design to Ensure Optimal Speed in All
River Conditions Utilizing LNG as Main Propulsion Fuel
coupled with the Patented Z-Wake Bow Design.
Copyright © 2018
Inland Waterway Vessel
Transfer to Ocean Container Transport
Are the Cargo &
Quantity Viable?
200 - 900 TEUs
1824 TEUs
to
3244 TEUs
Commercially
Viable
Copyright © 2018
New Era of LNG Vessels
is on the Horizon:LNG will be the Fuel of the Future
for Shipping
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
TOTE Orders Two New LNG Powered
Container Ships & Two RO/RO Conversions:
Largest LNG Powered Ships in the World
Two 839-foot Orca-class vessels to liquefied natural gas-diesel dual
fuel operation for Seattle-Alaska service and two 764-foot new-builds
for the Florida-Puerto Rico trade
Copyright © 2018
LNG Vessel Bunkering: North American
Ports Are Not Prepared…
Copyright © 2018
Panama Canal
Expansion:Recent New Capacity is Not
Sufficient for 2030 Trade Volumes
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
Panama Canal Expansion Project
Inauguration - June 26, 2016.
The first ceremony began on the Atlantic side at the new
Agura Clara Locks, followed by the new Cocoli Locks on the
Pacific side
Copyright © 2018
Panama Canal Route
Copyright © 2018
Panama Canal Historical Tonnage Traffic
Source: ACP Data
Copyright © 2018
The United States Took Over the Original Canal
Construction Project from the French in 1904 and
completed it in 1914.
Source: ACP Expansion Project, Circle of Blue January 27, 2015
Copyright © 2018
The Panama Canal Circa 1914
Copyright © 2018
Panama Canal Pre-June 2016 (Old Panamax)
Copyright © 2018
The Panama Canal Currently Accounts for 3%
of the Volume of Global Trade, this Share Will
Increase to 6 - 7 % over the next decade
Source: ACP Expansion Project, Circle of Blue January 27, 2015
Copyright © 2018
Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion
New Lane
Existing Lanes
Copyright © 2018
Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion
Copyright © 2018
Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion
Water-Saving Basin Reservoir System
Copyright © 2018
A $5.25 Billion Investment in a 3rd Set of Locks
Equating to 16% of Panama’s National GDP
Source: ACP Expansion Project, Circle of Blue January 27, 2015
Copyright © 2018
Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion Capabilities
Source: ACP Expansion Project
2011:
4,800 TEU 2016:
12,600 TEU
Copyright © 2018
Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion Capabilities
Source: ACP Expansion Project, Circle of Blue January 27, 2015
(49.2 feet)
Neo-Panamax: 12,600 TEUs
Old Panamax: 4,800 TEUs
(1,201 feet)
(965 feet)
(39 feet)
(49 feet)
Copyright © 2018
Largest Neo-panamax Containershipto Transit the New Panama Canal – August 2017
(OCEAN Alliance’s weekly South Atlantic Express (SAX) service)
CMA CGM’s Theodore Roosevelt:
TEU Allowance: 14,855 TEUs
Vessel LOA: 365.9 meters (1,200.66 ft.)
Vessel Beam: 48.2 meters (158.31 ft.)
Vessel Max. Draft: 16 meters (52.49 ft.)
Copyright © 2018Source: A.P. Moeller-Maersk, Panama Canal Authority
The Recent Mega Container Vessels are Too Large
for the New Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion
Copyright © 2018
Emerging New
Caribbean
Transhipment Center(Large Ship to Feeder Vessel Transfer)
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
The Panama Canal Expansion Will Move the
Caribbean Transhipment Center Point to Panama
Copyright © 2018
New Panama Canal Pacific Entrance Ports
More Capacity than all of
the Port of Los Angeles
Copyright © 2018
New Panama Canal Atlantic Entrance Port
More Capacity than all of
the Port of Houston
Copyright © 2018
North American Vessel Transshipment:(Globally Transshipment accounts between 25 and 50%
of all container volumes – In the US it’s < 15%)
Induced Transshipment/Feeder
Ship Operations
Transhipment
Hub Port
Mother
Ship
Feeder
Ship
Feeder
Ship
Copyright © 2018
Large Container Vessel
Market Penetration into
the US Midwest
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
New State of Marine & Intermodal Competition
Source: NW Seaport Alliance Strategic Business Plan, May 6, 2015
Mississippi River
Copyright © 2018
US Market Penetration Via Panama Canal Expansion
(Economies of Scale)
46 % Penetration, Before 2016
Via All Water, 4,500 TEU Vessels
63 % Penetration, After 2016
Via All Water, 8,000 TEU Vessels
75 % Penetration, 2018 & Beyond
Via All Water & Pendulum Service
14,500 TEU Vessels
Source: Potential Effects of the Panama Canal Expansion on the Texas Transportation System
Copyright © 2018
New Container Port Battleground Region(Representing 15% of the US GDP)
Source: Boston Consulting Group & C. H. Robinson
Copyright © 2018
North American Cropland Intensity (Acres of Cropland as a percent of Land Area)
Battleground
Region
Copyright © 2018
Source: Potential Effects of the Panama Canal Expansion on the Texas
Transportation System, Texas DOT, Cambridge Systematics October 2011
Dramatic US Market Penetration Panama Canal Economies of Scale with permit
deeper market penetration into the US Midwest
East/Gulf Coast
Cost AdvantageWest Coast
Cost Advantage
Cost Advantage Area
West of the MS River
The Panama Canal will prove to be a strong
contender for Asian trade serving not only
the US East Coast, but ALL of the Gulf and
the Most of the Midwest by 2019.
Copyright © 2018
Trump Team’s Initial
50 Infrastructure Projects
Priority List
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
Copyright © 2018
Copyright © 2018
• 50 projects as public-private partnerships, with half the
money coming from private investment.
• Includes a $10 billion proposal to replace the nation’s radar-
based air traffic control system with one called NextGen,
• 13 projects for Clean Energy or Water
• 11 Port/Inland Waterway Projects
• 13 Freight/Highway Projects including 6 Bridge Projects
• The projects have to meet specific criteria:
• A national security or public safety “emergency.”
• “Shovel-Ready,” with at least 30 percent of initial design
and engineering work complete.
• Direct job creator.
• Project with the potential for increased U.S. manufacturing
Trump Team’s Infrastructure Priority List
Copyright © 2018
ASCE 2017 Report
Card for America’s
Infrastructure
Ports: C+
Inland Waterways: D
Roads: D
$4.6
Cost to Improve
Failure to Act: It Costs Each US Family $3,400 per year
Copyright © 2018
International Gross Fixed Capital
Formation as a Percent of GDP (US is 32nd in the World - Below OECD Nations)
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Copyright © 2018
Thank You
Copyright © 2018
DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting
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