Global Maritime Vessel & Trade...

Copyright © 2018

2018 DDLA Annual MeetingTrump Ocean Club Panama City, Panama February 21, 2018

Global Maritime Vessel &

Trade Trends (Impacting North American Ports)

Copyright © 2018

Expect the Global Maritime Trade

Volume to Double by 2030

“In the next 10-15 years world trade

is projected to grow significantly.

It is estimated that this growth will

result in a doubling of seaborne

trade volumes from 10 billion tons

of cargo annually today to 20 billion

tons of cargo around 2030”.

Source: Danish Maritime Forum, 24-28 October 2016

Copyright © 2018

Three Mega Trade Trends to 2030

Global population is likely to be 8.5 billion by 2030, with

96% of growth coming from developing countries. India

will overtake China with the largest population.

Global GDP could grow THREE TIMES within 20 years.

The countries with the largest growth in per capita

GDP will be China, Vietnam, India and Indonesia.

Purchasing power in developing Asia will rise 8 times

between 2010 and 2030.

40% HIGHER ENERGY DEMAND in 2030. China oil

consumption could triple, overtaking the USA to

become the largest oil consumer. The USA will remain

the biggest natural gas consumer, while China will see

the largest growth in natural gas consumption.

Source: Global Marine Trends 2030 – QinetiQ – Lloyd’s Register

Copyright © 2018

The Evolution of

Today’s Global

Shipping Lanes

Copyright © 2018

DDLA 2018 Annual Meeting

http://www.erieinlandport.com/



Copyright © 2018

The Maritime Silk Road Replaced the

Overland Silk Road as the Primary

Trading Route Across Eurasia After

the Tang Dynasties (618 to 907)

Copyright © 2018

The Marine Silk Road was a Precursor to:

Today’s modern supply chain logistics, distribution

and shipping transportation networks

Copyright © 2018

90% of Global Trade is Carried Out by Shipping

The Majority of Today’s Ocean Trade is

Conducted on the Marine Silk Road

Copyright © 2018

The World’s Primary Shipping Route:

The Marine Silk Road

Copyright © 2018

Maersk’s Global

Trading Routes Today

Copyright © 2018

Indian Ocean Electric Blue Shipping Lane Trails

From the Marine Silk Road

Copyright © 2018

The World’s Largest Ports Are Connected

Via The Marine Silk Road Where are the Biggest Ports?

Copyright © 2018

On Earth, There Are More People Living

Inside This Circle Than Outside the Circle

The World’s Largest Ports Are Connected

Via The Marine Silk Road

Copyright © 2018

NASA’s Population Density Imagery

A standard dot density map of population (each dot represents 50,000 people).

Copyright © 2018

Global Shipping Routes Plotted by AIS GPSToday’s Busiest Shipping Routes:

(1) Panama Canal, (2) Suez Canal, (3) Offshore China

Source: Wired Science January 2010 Journal of the Royal Society: Interface

Copyright © 2018

International

External Industry

Pressures Driving

Today’s Logistics

Copyright © 2018


Copyright © 2018

More than 98% of everything we

consume, wear, eat, drive and construct

is brought to us via ships through the

North American port system.

Copyright © 2018

Growth in GDP and World Trade

Source: Oxford Economics 2013

World trade will grow by 73% in the next 15 years. With merchandise trade

volumes in 2025 hitting $43.6 trillion compared to today’s $27.2 trillion

CAGR = 4.5%

Copyright © 2018

World Trade’s Share of the Economy

Grows Again

Source: IHS Global Insight – World Trade Service

% INCR = 37%

Copyright © 2018

Long Term GDP Annual Growth Rates

Source: OECD Economic Forecast

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

World

United States

Canada

Copyright © 2018

International Maritime

Cargo Demand &

Logistics Trends

Copyright © 2018


Copyright © 2018

2025 World Container Port Market Demand(Millions of TEUs)

Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants

260%

Increase

2009

Recession

Copyright © 2018

Southeast Asian

Manufacturing Centroid Shift Current Inbound US Cargo Flow

U.S. Intermodal Rail Flow

U.S. Intermodal Rail Flow

WesternCentroidShift

WesternCentroidShift

Westbound All Water/Suez FlowWestbound All Water/Suez Flow

Westbound Intermodal U.S. FlowWestbound Intermodal U.S. Flow

With Manufacturing Centroid Shifts Into Vietnam

and/or India, The North American East Coast will

See Dramatically More Westbound Suez Traffic

Copyright © 2015

Copyright © 2018

Suez Canal’s $8.5 Billion Expansion Plan(A New $4 Billion 45-mile-long parallel channel and Global Logistics Park)

3 Daily Convoys:

2 Northern Convoys

1 Southern Convoy

Copyright © 2018

New 45-mile-long parallel channel cutting waiting times to transit by 3 hrs. from 11 hrs.

The Suez Canal’s $8.5 Billion

Expansion of the Canal

Completed September 2015

Copyright © 2018

Dredging 180 Million Cubic Meters

(35-kilometers-long and 24-meters-deep)

Shipping Route in Less than One Year

Copyright © 2018

Egyptian Jet Fighter Escort Selfie(Taken with the New Expanded Suez Canal in the Background)

Source: Photo Courtesy of MIRASCO, August 2015

Copyright © 2018

The Number of Ships Able to Navigate the

Suez Canal Simultaneously Has Increased

from 23 to 97, Thus Doubling the

Suez Canal Capacity by 2023

Copyright © 2018

The Continuing Asian

Import Trade

Challenge

Copyright © 2018


Copyright © 2018

Container Transhipment World Records

Of the 10 busiest ports in the world,

Nine are in Asia, of the top 10, Six

are on the Chinese mainland

The Port of Shanghai is No. 1, and

The Port of Singapore is No.2

These Two Ports are Larger Than All

North American Ports Combined

Copyright © 2018

Shanghai International Shipping Center

Yangshan Deep Port & Logistics Park

54 New Berths

New Logistics Park

New Port City

20 Mile New Port Access

Bridge Constructed in 3 yrs

Copyright © 2018


Yangshan Deep Port - 20 Mile Bridge Access

“Second Longest Ocean Bridge in the World”

Copyright © 2018

Shanghai Yangshan Deep-Water HarbourYangshan Deep Port – 54 Berths East China Sea

Copyright © 2018


Yangshan Deep Port & Logistics Park

Shanghai Port Set a 2011 Record by Handling over 30 million TEUs

Copyright © 2018

Maritime Vessel

Technology Trends:

Emergence of the

Neo-Panamax Vessel

Copyright © 2018


Copyright © 2018

40 Years of Container Ship Size Growth (TEU Capacity)

Source: HIS Maritime & Trade Historical Vessel and Orderbook Data

NEO PANAMAX

As of June 2016

OLD PANAMAX

Up to June 2016

ULCS CONTAINER SHIP

Circa 2020

Copyright © 2018Source: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty - Data: Container-Transportation.com

50 Years of Container Vessel Evolutionary Growth

Neo-Panamax:

12,600 TEUs

Old Panamax:

4,800 TEUs

Near Term Mega Vessel: 22,000 TEUs

Copyright © 2018

Largest Container Ship Yet to Call on

the Port of Virginia – May 8, 2017

COSCO Development Container Ship – 13, 092 TEUs

Copyright © 2018

May 8, 2017 Largest Container Vessel

to Call at the Port of Virginia

Containership COSCO DEVELOPMENT at 1,200 feet long and 158 feet wide, It is

100-plus feet longer that the U.S. Navy’s newest aircraft carrier the Gerald R. Ford

COSCO Development Container Ship – 13, 092 TEUs

Copyright © 2018

Relative Size of the Mega Container Vessel

COSCO

Develop

COSCO DEVELOPMENT

Largest Ship to Call at the

Port of Virginia, May 2017

Copyright © 2018

‘Megamax’ Containership Deliveries of

18,000 to 22,000 TEUs

2018 – First delivery of a 22,000 TEU ship - The highest year on

record for ULCV deliveries - 1.12 million TEU booked for delivery.

2018

Copyright © 2018

Vessel Sharing Alliances Were

Restructured Late April 2017(Ocean Alliance to Dominate the Overall Trans-Pacific Trade)

Source: Alphaliner – JOC - IHS Maritime & Trade

Three alliances will control 91 % of the US trade volume

US ports will face unprecedented operational challenges.

Copyright © 2018

The Biggest Ship Ever in San Francisco Bay

CMA CGM Benjamin Franklin

1,300 ft. LOA , 177 ft. beam, 18,000 TEUs

Source: CMA CGM, The SF Chronicle

Copyright © 2018

South Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries:OOCL Mega Ships 21,100 TEU to be delivered November 2017

Six ordered at 21,100 TEU, total cost of US$950 million.

The contract also includes options for six additional units.

Copyright © 2018

Maersk’s Triple E Container Ship1.5 times the Size of the NEW Panama Canal

Wide Body Shallow Draft 18,000 TEU Vessel (Same Design Draft of the 8,000 TEU Susan Maersk)

(Design Draft of 14.5 Meters = 47.57 feet)

Copyright © 2018

MSC Orders 11 New 22,000-TEU Vessels

CMA-CGM Orders 9 New 22,000-TEU Vessels

Source: American Shipper - Lloyd’s List

FUEL COST OPTIONS: $136 million per vessel if a conventional fuel

system with scrubbers is chosen, or about $154 million should a dual-fuel

alternative – which would allow for the use of LNG – be selected instead.

Copyright © 2018

CMA CGM Orders 9 New 22,000-TEU Vessels

Source: American Shipper - Lloyd’s List

CMA CGM Group’s US$1.5 billion order for nine LNG Powered

22,000-TEUs container ships for delivery from the end of 2019.

Asia-Europe trade may be set for 24,000 TEU ships from 2019

Copyright © 2018

Next Generation: Suezmax 26,000 TEUs26 Bays, 25 Rows - Ultra Large Container Ships (ULCS)

Source: DNV GL in-house methodology - “Concept Design Assessment”

With a Beam of 25 rows & Length of 26 bays

(LOA: 430 meters – 1,411 feet)

the ULCS capacity could reach 26,300 TEU.

Port of Antwerp: New Terminals in Europe

are using 26,000 TEU design vessels

Copyright © 2018

Mega Container Ship

Design & Dangerous

Sea States

Copyright © 2018





Copyright © 2018

The Rogue Wave(Predicting Freak Colossal Episodic Waves)

Copyright © 2018

Largest Vessel Recorded Rogue Wave Height:

98 feet high, from crest to trough. The biggest

recorded by a buoy was 106 feet high during the

2007 typhoon Krosa near Taiwan

Copyright © 2018

100,000 Deadweight Ton Liquid Bulk

Tanker Fights for Survival in 60 foot Waves

Current Design Vessel

Criteria: 56 foot wave

above the Vessel

Waterline (from wave

trough to crest)

Copyright © 2018

Global Wave Model GROW2012:

5,000 instances of extreme sea conditions where

waves were higher than 12 meters (39 feet).

Highest average waves were more than 18 meters

(59 feet) and occurred in the North Atlantic and

North Pacific oceans.

Copyright © 2018

Rena Containership Wedged on a Reef in the

Bay of Plenty, New Zealand - October 2011

Copyright © 2018

8,000-TEU MOL Ship Sank in Bad Weather,

Indian Ocean 200 Nautical Miles Off Yemen

Copyright © 2018

Examples of Emerging Port

Technologies to Improve

Port Performance

Copyright © 2018


Copyright © 2018

Vessel Size Expansion - Terminal Impacts(Port Terminal Infrastructure & Equipment Geometry Impacts)

Source: Georgia Ports Authority and Vickerman & Associates

New Panamax (2014/15)

12,600 TEU

Current Panamax

4,800 TEU

Super Post Panamax

18,000 to 22,000 TEU

Boom Outreach

Depths 48 to 54 ft

Storage Area Impacts

Height Above Deck

Increased Terminal Throughput

Copyright © 2018

Increased STS Gage Improves Stability, Reduces Wheel Loads,

Decongests the Quay Operations and Improves Productivity

Source: Liftech Consultants Inc.

95-100

115

138

STS Gage

Req. in Ft.

15046 m13-14

Tandem Lift 40 ft.

Tandem STS

Operations

STS Gage

Copyright © 2018

Terminal 3 Jebel Ali Dubai Container Terminal (U.A.E.) (STS Gantry Crane Gage=42 m = 137.8 ft) Approaching 150 ft. Gage

The remote STS operation at the DP World’s

T3 Terminal has demonstrated that the

operator’s views in the control room from

crane-mounted cameras are better and more

comprehensive than those from the crane

cab.

The cranes operate fully automated once their

spreaders reach a predetermined height

above the shipboard stack profile.

STS Crane Operations from

Remote Control Room

Copyright © 2018

The Energing 150 ft. Gage Semi-Automated STS

Gantry Cranes ConsiderationsConsider spreader capability to lift

tandem, triple, quad & 6 pack loads

Consider / Evaluate Dual Hoist STS Gantry Cranes with

Cable Reel Flexible Power:

Copyright © 2018

✓ Eliminates the need for mooring lines with automated vacuum pads

that moor and release vessels in seconds.

✓ Dramatically improves safety and operational efficiency,

✓ Optimizes the ship-to-shore interface, and in many cases enables Port

terminals to make infrastructure savings.

Port of Salalah, Oman has successfully used a vacuum mooring system for

years. The vacuum system extends from the quay and locks onto the ship.

Emerging Automated Mooring System Advantages

MoorMaster™

Automated

Mooring

System

Copyright © 2018

Cavotec Published Benefits

1. Moor vessels in 30 seconds, detach in 10 seconds.

2. Reduced OPEX, (fuel burn, manpower operational time and maintenance)

3. Increased container throughput due to reduced vessel motion, (berth creep,

long waves, passing vessels, etc.).

4. Improved STS crane productivity.

5. Improved operator and ship crew safety.

6. 90% reduction in emissions during mooring due to reduced tug and vessel

engine usage.

Emerging Automated Mooring System Advantages

Copyright © 2018

North American Inland

Waterway Vessel Evolution Emerging Container On Barge (COB)

Copyright © 2018


Copyright © 2018Source: USDOT Maritime Administration MARAD

“Deck” Barge Loaded with Containers

“Hopper” Barge Loaded with Containers

Copyright © 2018

Proposed Domestic AMH/Short Sea Container Services

Proposed New England Marine Highway Project's articulated tug barge short

sea container service connecting New York City and Portland, Maine - 900

TEUs

Proposed MARAD ATB Ro/Con – HEC Design - 886 TEUs, Design

Draft 14.1 ft. – 14 Knots

Copyright © 2018

A “State of the Art” Hull Design to Ensure Optimal Speed in All

River Conditions Utilizing LNG as Main Propulsion Fuel

American Patriot Holdings, LLC (APH)

Prototype Container Vessel

Copyright © 2018

American Patriot Container Transport, LLC.

(APCT)Vessel Fleet Characteristics

LOA Feet Beam Feet TEU Capacity Vessel Drafts

592 100 1824 9.0 ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft.

772 100 2392 9.0 ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft.

952 100 2960 9.0 ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft.

1042 100 3244 9.0 ft. 9.6 ft., & 10.0 ft.

Copyright © 2018

American Patriot Holdings, LLC (APH)

Prototype Container Vessel

A “State of the Art” Hull Design to Ensure Optimal Speed in All

River Conditions Utilizing LNG as Main Propulsion Fuel

coupled with the Patented Z-Wake Bow Design.

Copyright © 2018

Inland Waterway Vessel

Transfer to Ocean Container Transport

Are the Cargo &

Quantity Viable?

200 - 900 TEUs

1824 TEUs

to

3244 TEUs

Commercially

Viable

Copyright © 2018

New Era of LNG Vessels

is on the Horizon:LNG will be the Fuel of the Future

for Shipping

Copyright © 2018





Copyright © 2018

TOTE Orders Two New LNG Powered

Container Ships & Two RO/RO Conversions:

Largest LNG Powered Ships in the World

Two 839-foot Orca-class vessels to liquefied natural gas-diesel dual

fuel operation for Seattle-Alaska service and two 764-foot new-builds

for the Florida-Puerto Rico trade

Copyright © 2018

LNG Vessel Bunkering: North American

Ports Are Not Prepared…

Copyright © 2018

Panama Canal Expansion Project

Inauguration - June 26, 2016.

The first ceremony began on the Atlantic side at the new

Agura Clara Locks, followed by the new Cocoli Locks on the

Pacific side

Copyright © 2018

The United States Took Over the Original Canal

Construction Project from the French in 1904 and

completed it in 1914.

Source: ACP Expansion Project, Circle of Blue January 27, 2015

Copyright © 2018

Largest Neo-panamax Containershipto Transit the New Panama Canal – August 2017

(OCEAN Alliance’s weekly South Atlantic Express (SAX) service)

CMA CGM’s Theodore Roosevelt:

TEU Allowance: 14,855 TEUs

Vessel LOA: 365.9 meters (1,200.66 ft.)

Vessel Beam: 48.2 meters (158.31 ft.)

Vessel Max. Draft: 16 meters (52.49 ft.)

Copyright © 2018Source: A.P. Moeller-Maersk, Panama Canal Authority

The Recent Mega Container Vessels are Too Large

for the New Panama Canal Third Lane Expansion

Copyright © 2018

North American Vessel Transshipment:(Globally Transshipment accounts between 25 and 50%

of all container volumes – In the US it’s < 15%)

Induced Transshipment/Feeder

Ship Operations

Transhipment

Hub Port

Mother

Ship

Feeder

Ship

Feeder

Ship

Copyright © 2018

US Market Penetration Via Panama Canal Expansion

(Economies of Scale)

46 % Penetration, Before 2016

Via All Water, 4,500 TEU Vessels

63 % Penetration, After 2016

Via All Water, 8,000 TEU Vessels

75 % Penetration, 2018 & Beyond

Via All Water & Pendulum Service

14,500 TEU Vessels

Source: Potential Effects of the Panama Canal Expansion on the Texas Transportation System

Copyright © 2018

Source: Potential Effects of the Panama Canal Expansion on the Texas

Transportation System, Texas DOT, Cambridge Systematics October 2011

Dramatic US Market Penetration Panama Canal Economies of Scale with permit

deeper market penetration into the US Midwest

East/Gulf Coast

Cost AdvantageWest Coast

Cost Advantage

Cost Advantage Area

West of the MS River

The Panama Canal will prove to be a strong

contender for Asian trade serving not only

the US East Coast, but ALL of the Gulf and

the Most of the Midwest by 2019.

Copyright © 2018

• 50 projects as public-private partnerships, with half the

money coming from private investment.

• Includes a $10 billion proposal to replace the nation’s radar-

based air traffic control system with one called NextGen,

• 13 projects for Clean Energy or Water

• 11 Port/Inland Waterway Projects

• 13 Freight/Highway Projects including 6 Bridge Projects

• The projects have to meet specific criteria:

• A national security or public safety “emergency.”

• “Shovel-Ready,” with at least 30 percent of initial design

and engineering work complete.

• Direct job creator.

• Project with the potential for increased U.S. manufacturing

Trump Team’s Infrastructure Priority List

Global Maritime Vessel & Trade...

Documents

Transcript of Global Maritime Vessel & Trade...